Julian Barnes’ Post

The valuation here will be very interesting as they are a much bigger "brand" than an actual business in terms of locations, revenue, ect. Unlike many other similar deals, franchised locations for Barry's are mostly non existent so the model and valuation will be different than the Orangetheory deal or others that look similar. I predict a PE buyer with a partner who loves the workout and the brand leading the charge. People always underestimate the personal connection in these deals.

I am not sure about that valuation - comparables would likely include SoulCyle (better brand equity) and Solidcore (better growth). However, I do think that this would be another fitness brand - I am surprised that the news broke - most of these opportunities are further along before anything leaks out. Barry’s is a fantastic brand with a loyal following. However, with capital harder to access - opening new studios will be a challenge. Add to that customer acquisition being more expensive, the lack of any technology innovations (for reference, SoulCycle and OTF are significantly further along on connected and digital) - this is attractive to a strategic who can layer an innovation layer on a brand that does perfectly fine without one. That will be the challenge.

How many locations does Barry’s have? That would be an amazing success story (already is).

i never heard of Barry's Bootcamps, but from the numbers in the post, it actually seems like a reasonable valuation of a company for once. if they really have 7.4 million users, then just a few hundred dollars per year per customer could support the estimated valuation

I am scratching my head on this valuation. Wishing them best of luck of course, would love to see what multiple they are expecting with this deal.

Given the low barriers to entry, you would think for less than $700 million you could build a strong competitor. Currently the majority of private and public valuations are often hard to truly justify.

👀 Trip down memory lane, before the world changed. Same journalist, same news site, and a similar valuation.  📍2019: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30/barry-s-bootcamp-is-said-to-weigh-potential-700-million-sale 📍 2024: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/barry-s-bootcamp-explores-strategic-options-including-a-sale An obvious buyer is the new Self Esteem+OTF; that would make it hard for others to ignore & also bid. If Self Esteem+OTF doesn't want to (deal too small?), my money is on a PE-firm like Rainer Partners who acquired Omega Fitness & now owns 70 of (Self Esteem's) Anytime Fitness gyms being interested. Final buyer will understand growth of fitness & have operational experience. Growth via a franchising playbook...but with a premium brand like Barry's it must be done carefully. A new owner can grow Barry's in US, CAN & globally but must learn from other franchised brands where (someone knew) new locations couldn't sustain class occupancy needed for success. A growing hotel brand is Kerzner's *Siro* hotels https://www.spaopportunities.com/spa-news/Kerzner-to-expand-Siro-portfolio-with-recovery-focused-hotels-in-Los-Cabos-and-Riyadh/353116 a good JV but Group Fitness is not their core biz.

This could be a potential strategic play for a boutique level firm with the correct financing to become a global brand.

I think a hotel chain would be a smart play. It would definitely make them stand out in the market.

Nobody who understands valuation or basic M&A finance is paying that much in 2024 (but I hope they get it because it would be great for the market!). Its not the 2010's, when VC-backed brands commanded outsized multiples on expansion-stage rounds or exits. From what I remember, wasn't this valuation range out there for a similar deal pre-Covid?!?