Peter Ziebelman

Key takeaways from VC Goat - Vinod Khosla podcast. - The firm cares more about working on interesting problems with large technical solutions rather than just maximizing IRR. The team is there because they believe in the mission. - Khosla assumes they've lost the money the day they invest, and then maximizes for the upside opportunity. He calls it "option value investing" rather than IRR investing. - Khosla has contrarian bets in AI (neuro-symbolic computing, probabilistic approaches), biotech, robotics, crypto, and more. - He believes aviation fuels, fusion energy, new transit systems, and other contrarian areas ignored by most investors will be huge opportunities. - Most large innovations come from outsiders, not industry insiders. Khosla looks for founders who can learn a business rapidly rather than have deep domain expertise. The Future Impact of AI - AI will be deflationary and increase productivity growth to 4% annually vs the typical 2% forecast. This will cause great abundance but also increasing income inequality. - Bipedal robots will take over most manufacturing and manual labor jobs within 20-25 years. This will free humans to be more creative and pursue their passions. - Education will shift from job training to creativity. Uniquely human elements like taste and curation will be most valued in an AI-enabled world. https://lnkd.in/gqBsmbks

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I had a lot of fun recording a podcast episode with Shiva Singh Sangwan. We discussed the evolution of Humba Ventures & Susa Ventures; tips for raising and building a fund; how to improve investment sourcing & picking; the role of luck in investing, and so on. https://lnkd.in/eiqsStej

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Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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Arc Ventures is a single-member venture fund that serves as a limited partner (LP) to over 50 funds. They have approximately 65 portfolio companies in North America, Israel, and Europe, primarily invested at the pre-seed and seed stages. In this interview with Maulik Mehta, we explore Arc Ventures' early-stage investment strategy, discussing their unique investment thesis, criteria for supporting startups, and distinctive approach to nurturing early-stage companies. We delve into their emphasis on building strong relationships with founders and partners, their role beyond capital infusion in aiding startups, and their adept navigation of international investments. Additionally, we touch upon the post-investment engagement startups can expect, current trends capturing their attention, and the process startups undergo when seeking investment from Arc Ventures. Watch the full interview here: https://lnkd.in/eCxmc3Vn #startups #earlystageinvesting #venturecapital #vc

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Our view on the current venture capital markets. Curious to hear other investors' thoughts but I feel like seed stage valuation, at least in the gaming and entertainment sectors, has finally come down to the pre-covid level. Since February or March this year, we started seeing that the founders are willing to raise a $1-2m seed round at a $10m-ish valuation, not like $4-5m at $20-25m in 2022 and 2023. What are you guys seeing?

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🌟Innovative VC Firm Overcomes Exits Drought with Secondary Sales🌟 ⛵Navigating a challenging landscape where exits are scarce, Santa Barbara Venture Partners (SBVP) has pioneered a novel approach to sustain its growth and attract investors for its second fund: secondary sales. Instead of waiting for traditional exits like IPOs or acquisitions, SBVP opted to sell shares of its portfolio companies, demonstrating its ability to generate returns for investors and stand out in a competitive market. 🎤According to Dan Engel, founder and managing partner of SBVP, these secondary transactions have been a game-changer, sparking investor interest and bolstering the firm's credibility. By leveraging its recent successes, including a lucrative stake in sports-betting company DraftKings Inc.' acquisition of digital lottery app Jackpocket, SBVP seized the opportunity to return profits to its limited partners (LPs) and pave the way for its second fund. 💡Engel highlighted the challenges faced by young VC firms in raising subsequent funds, particularly amid a downturn in exit activity and heightened investor scrutiny. With traditional exit routes becoming increasingly elusive, the pressure is on for firms to demonstrate tangible returns and establish a track record of success. ✨"For us, secondary sales have been a game-changer. They've helped us return profits to our LPs and attract investors for our second fund," said Dan Engel. 💰For SBVP, the decision to pursue secondary sales was driven by the need to provide liquidity to LPs and validate its investment thesis in the eyes of prospective investors. By strategically offloading portions of its holdings in high-performing portfolio companies like Bark Technologies and Rad AI, SBVP not only generated substantial returns but also bolstered investor confidence in its ability to deliver results. ⚠Despite the complexities and potential stigma associated with early share sales, Engel emphasized the importance of prioritizing investor returns and seizing opportunities to unlock value for stakeholders. With a focus on profitability and transparency, SBVP remains committed to its mission of delivering sustainable growth and maximizing returns for its LPs. 🔍 "Returning profits to our investors is our top priority. By strategically selling shares, we're proving our commitment to delivering results and driving value for our stakeholders," added Engel. As SBVP continues to explore secondary transactions and expand its investor base, the firm stands as a testament to innovation and resilience in the face of market challenges. 🚀 ✅ Looking to raise capital for your #fund and increase the international pool of your LP #investors?   🤝 Need warm #LP introductions?   📝 Selling #secondaries to increase liquidity?   🧐 Looking for co-investments?   ▶ G+QUANT's link for inquiries and fund decks: https://lnkd.in/gjC_EuTE #VCInnovation #SecondarySalesSuccess #InvestorReturns #ValueCreation 

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Allocate's Beyond Summit Key Takeaways for LPs Every VC & LP needs a framework for responsible innovation that incorporates metrics beyond financial alignment, e.g., alignment with society. - Hemant Taneja @ General Catalyst in conversation with Samir Kaji @ Allocate LLMs are in a race to the bottom, middleware & developer tools are risky, but a lot of opportunity in the application layers of AI. AI is being used to offer "service as a software," e.g., outbound call automation, AI recruiters, etc. Also being used to fight cybercrime, e.g., J.P.Morgan receives 45B cyber attacks per DAY! - Conversation moderated by Nakul Mandan @ Audacious Ventures and Tomasz Tunguz @ Theory Ventures The venture capital business is all about believing early in the potential of people. Key founder attribute to look for: what is their learning / growth curve, i.e., where they are vs. where they started. - Panel discussion with Alex Pall @ Mantis Venture Capital, Lance Armstrong @ NEXT Ventures, Lan Xuezhao @ Basis Set, Pejman Nozad @ Pear Tree Ventures Fund diligence (advice from LPs) - Are they good humans & think about societal impact? - Off-record reference checks - GP-fund strategy fit, e.g., do they have enterprise SaaS network? - Is track record repeatable? - What is their diligence process, e.g., do they have information rights? This generation of founders is most battle-tested having lived through COVID, ZIRP, WFH, & AI. Advice for VCs & LPs: important to support your partners particularly when things aren't going well. - Panel discussion with Mark Suster @ Upfront Ventures, Peter Hebert @ Lux Capital, Somesh Dash @ IVP, Will Kohler @ Lightspeed Special thanks to Samir Kaji, Hana Yang, and the entire Allocate team for an exceptional gathering with an amazing group of humans at #AllocateBeyondSummit. 🎷 LPs: Meet other global LPs @ hyphah.com/events.

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Last month, Uncork Capital celebrated its 20th anniversary with a jubilant gathering attended by 420 guests, marking two decades of success in the venture capital realm. Over the years, the firm, alongside industry peers like First Round Capital and Felicis, has witnessed remarkable growth, now managing billions of dollars in assets. This expansion reflects the flourishing landscape of venture capital, with the industry experiencing exponential growth in investment. Moreover, positive shifts in VC norms, such as the evolving attitudes towards board seats, underscore a commitment to providing tailored support to startups, enhancing their growth prospects. Amidst discussions surrounding sectors like AI, optimism prevails, emphasizing a steadfast dedication to investing in innovative ventures with lasting impact. Read More Here: https://lnkd.in/efN6-Spd Branded Hospitality Ventures Jeff Clavier Susan Liu Ashley Cravens Tripp Jones Sarah Du Andy McLoughlin Amy Saper #innovation #technology #management #venturecapital #startup

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I used to spend 2-3 hours daily on clinic notes, skeptical of AI scribe technology. However, I've been impressed with RevMaxx, a generative AI company transforming clinical note creation by listening to physician-patient conversations and automatically generating comprehensive notes. This platform accurately captures crucial ICD-10 codes, saving valuable time ⏰. 👉 Why This Matters: - **Reducing Physician Burnout:** Administrative tasks are a significant contributor to physician burnout. Innovations like RevMaxx alleviate this burden effectively. #HealthcareInnovation #AI #PhysicianBurnout #MedicalDocumentation #HealthTech #RevMaxx

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During yesterday's LibreQoS APNIC webinar, I posed the question: won't more bandwidth solve these problems? As Herbert Wolverson said, yes, more bandwidth is good, but, still these problems remain if queueing is done incorrectly. Here's my take on why bandwidth alone is not as good as bandwidth + good queueing policies: Generally it was believed that 'data is important, so don't throw it away; hang on to it and send it later'. In practice, this has proven to be suboptimal as two issues may emerge: 1) latency increases for some flows due to heavy demand from other flows using the same bottleneck link, 2) even a single flow can have excessive latency due to aspects of typical TCP behavior (referred to bufferbloat) when the buffers grew large enough that the data being buffered was retransmitted anyway. It turns out that not all data is equally important. Active Queue Management is the art of deciding priorities, both in deciding what data to throw away, but also in allowing some later arriving data to be transmitted ahead of data in another connection that arrived before it. These problems have been studied, and good solutions have been found by using certain queueing policies in routers and switches, referred to as “fq_codel’ and “cake”. These track the different flows not by classifying the data, but by watching the behavior. Flows that send relatively little data (DNS lookups), or at a measured pace (video chat) have priority over flows that send a lot of data as quickly as possible (App and System updates, Video and ISO downloads).

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VC exits next 10 years - much fewer IPOs - much smaller strategic M&A - PE will become the norm I explain in this clip how it will affect VC Full episode: https://lnkd.in/gaJ-TWZE

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Board of Directors - insights from "The Essays of Warren Buffett" Buffett’s principles for Boards of Directors emphasize the importance of independence, accountability, and a focus on long-term shareholder value: - Long-Term Focus: Boards should act in the long-term interest of shareholders - Board Composition: Boards with mostly outside directors and select members for business savvy, not prominence or diversity (PE insight: CROs on the Board) - Regular Evaluation: Outside directors should meet without the CEO to assess performance True Independence: Directors must have equity in the company to align with shareholders' interests P.S. This is a very insightful book structuring Warren Buffett's shareholder letters by specific categories - here are the top summary takeaways from the rest of the book: Investment Discipline – Maintain patience and discipline, avoiding speculative investments and market timing Business Quality – Seek businesses with a durable competitive advantage Management – High-quality, trustworthy management & look for managers who think like owners Corporate Governance – Transparent communication and fair treatment of all stakeholders Risk Management – Avoid excessive leverage and maintain a margin of safety to minimize risk and preserve capital Fundamentals – Focus on fundamentals rather than market trends Economic Earnings – Focus on economic earnings and free cash flow rather than accounting profits for a true picture of financial health Long-Term Focus – Long-term investments and value creation vs. short-term gains Capital Allocation – Efficient capital allocation is key - reinvest earnings wisely Market Irrationality – Recognize and capitalize on irrationality as "Mr.Market" can be inefficient in the short term #investing #markets #business #stocks #finance #pe #ceo

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It’s encore time in our “Vision 2035: The Emergent Singularity” series! In the fast-paced world of early-stage venture investment, anticipating and mitigating risks are paramount for fostering sustainable growth and societal impact. At Machine Ventures, we're not merely preparing for the near future; our foresight extends over the next decade and beyond. The 2024 Global Risk Report from the World Economic Forum delivers a sobering message, indicating a "negative outlook" for the next few years, with potential challenges intensifying over the decade. Key concerns highlighted include climate change, ideological divisions, rapid technological progress, and demographic shifts in developed economies, all of which are poised to significantly influence macro-economic and political landscapes, profoundly shaping markets and startup ecosystems alike. Economically, we anticipate a global slowdown, with The World Bank projecting a deceleration in growth for the third consecutive year. Developed economies could experience sluggish activity due to persistent high interest rates, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global supply chains, such as ongoing chip shortages. This scarcity underscores vulnerabilities that are critical for advancements in AI and machine intelligence, potentially delaying product launches, hindering research and development efforts, and impeding its impact on economic growth. On the political front, evolving regulatory frameworks surrounding AI in the EU and US aim to mitigate risks associated with technological progress, and possibly compounded by geo-political tensions. Furthermore, the rapid pace of AI development will certainly continue to outpace regulatory efforts for the foreseeable future. Despite these multifaceted challenges, we believe our strategic approach remains resilient. Embracing an 'open-stack' philosophy and diversifying our commitments across the US and Europe, as well as across sectors – where machine intelligence will have force multiplying impact – allows us to adapt flexibly to emerging risks. Our mission is steadfast: to support startups that not only generate economic value but also contribute positively to society. We look forward to building that future with many of you! Patrick & Sri #singularity #machineintelligence #ai

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An intriguing perspective for both investor umbrellas and operating/portfolio companies. The AI family, and beyond the Gen AI hype, is poised to become our next indispensable team player and strategic growth partner. As we continue to explore AI's capabilities, new avenues for innovation and efficiency shall become more accessible and plausible.

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It is ironic that VC funds invest in the newest technologies but do not adopt cutting edge technologies at all. Well, thanks to people like Dr. Andre Retterath and the Data-Driven VC, this is changing. We at Mindset Ventures are proud to be in such a prestige group of funds which is taking this leap forward. https://lnkd.in/eq9GvNcE #DDVC #AI #venturecapital #technology

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In an era where innovation outpaces regulation, how can entrepreneurs embed social responsibility into the DNA of their startups? 🌐💡 Recent conversations and insightful pieces, particularly one by Lyel Resner and Dr. Wilneida Negrón, have sparked a profound consideration in my thinking: the imperative for responsible innovation in tech ventures. They posit a tantalizing question - what if the tech giants of tomorrow were built on the foundations of public interest and social responsibility today? Diving into this thought experiment reveals more than just an ethical proposition; it opens up a paradigm where businesses can be both profitable and purposeful. Embedding social responsibility from the outset could guide ventures to prioritize long-term societal well-being over short-term gains. Imagine a future where companies are not just evaluated by their financial performance but also by their contribution to solving societal issues. The notion is ambitious but certainly not unattainable. This approach challenges us as entrepreneurs, investors, and innovators to rethink our roles in shaping the future of technology. It's a call to action to pioneer a new wave of responsible businesses that are equipped to address, rather than exacerbate, global challenges. Let’s discuss: How can we as part of the startup ecosystem integrate these principles into our work from day zero? Your thoughts could light up paths not yet traveled. 🚀🌍

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Lesson for first time founders. "As much as they want to be your friends, the fund comes first (as it should)." As hard as it sounds the VC business evolves around a fight for survival first and being friends as a distant second. #openvc #investmentmanagers #assetmanagers #fundmanagers #venturecapital #assetallocation #limitedpartners #returnoninvestment #pitchdeck #fundraising #vc #vcrelationships

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On May 2, 2024 REFASHIOND Ventures: The Industrial Transformation Fund convened people from around the world for Supply Chain & Industrial Transformation: The Next Generation (Silicon Valley 2024) at the JP Morgan Chase Palo Alto Technology Center in Palo Alto, CA. In this showcase, Karyl Fowler describes how Transmute transforms the paper documents involved in global trade into verifiable digital credentials. Verifiable credentials are like the shipping containers of trade data, imparting similar standardization benefits with enhanced traceability, tamper evidence, persistence, and interoperability. Transmute is a startup in our portfolio at REFASHIOND Ventures: The Industrial Transformation Fund. Our Thesis: REFASHIOND Ventures: The Industrial Transformation Fund invests in early stage startups refashioning legacy industries through Data & AI, Advanced Materials, Advanced Manufacturing, & Next Generation Supply Chains; Defensible through economic moats. More in the video below. #SCITSV2024 #SCITSV2024Showcase

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