Kevin Dewalt

Ever wonder why the best tech doesn't always win in defense? Meeting lots of defense tech founders recently has shown me a hard truth—99.9% of them vastly underestimate defense go-to-market. This isn't a market where the best tech wins by default. Winning in defense requires much more regulatory capture than people realize—-product-led growth (PLG) is essentially non-existent. Traditional tech founders face huge disadvantages when building exclusively for DoD customers. In this field, having cutting-edge technology isn't enough, you need a massively unfair advantage (beyond technology) to succeed here. It's an area where connections, understanding the bureaucracy, and navigating the procurement maze are critical. I don't recommend building for this sector unless you're prepared for these unique challenges.

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Bessemer Venture Partners General Partner Jeremy Levine is your favorite VCs, favorite VC.. one of the most respected and successful venture capitalists over the last 2 decades. Jeremy has thrived through many eras, taking risks on now-iconic companies like LinkedIn, Shopify, Yelp, Pinterest, and more. In our discussion, Jeremy shared stories behind these investments and the mindsets he’s developed along the way. The conversation turned out to be one of my longest and most in-depth to date on the venture industry, an ultimate discussion for anyone that wants to nerd out on venture capital with us. A few takeaways: → Does price actually matter? Jeremy’s POV: “The idea price doesn't matter and that it's binary is just wildly flawed and lazy thinking. I think it's just dead wrong.” Jeremy avoids feeling FOMO, and instead convinces himself he has JOMO (Joy Of Missing Out), as we all love to avoid wasting time on things that you weren’t actually going to follow through with. → Why Jeremy hates investment memo templates Using templates for investment memos stifles deep, first-principle thinking. Instead of crafting a unique investment story, you’re doing busy work completing a form. While most of the memo can follow a structure, the first page should always be written from scratch. Templates can standardize discussions unfairly, emphasizing the same aspects for every company, regardless if their stand out value is their tech/market/product/etc. Instead, ask yourself “what is the most important thing?” and start from there. → Bessemer’s voting system for investment decisions For every investment decision, team member’s vote on how confident they feel in an investment from 1-10. It serves 2 purposes… Team feedback: as the lead partner on a decision, getting feedback can help you make a better decision (of which you will be celebrated or blamed for). Numeric ratings help clarify the discussion, as a 10 indicates more concrete approval than just saying "I love it," while a 6 provides grounds to discuss specific pros and cons. Keeps you honest: The voting process helps minimize hindsight bias by documenting your true confidence level at the time, allowing for a more objective review of your decision later on. Funny enough, some of Jeremy’s best investments got very weak votes, and we talk through these in the full episode. We also explored how the VC landscape has evolved over the last 20 years and where the industry may head next. Plus, lots of insights from Jeremy’s journey into VC, along with foundational advice and principles that anyone aspiring to succeed in the industry may find valuable: https://lnkd.in/d5kNFtKc

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On the back of the article from The Guardian “Banks, airlines and media outlets hit by global outage linked to Windows PCs,” it got me thinking… What would happen if AI services like ChatGPT, Gemini, etc., went down? Why can’t we use these offline instead of being connected to the Internet? Many organisations are becoming dependent on AI, raising concerns around security and privacy. We would witness significant disruptions across various sectors. Customer service, healthcare, finance, and logistics heavily rely on AI to optimise operations, provide insights, and enhance user experiences. The absence of AI would slow decision-making processes, reduce efficiency, and potentially lead to increased errors. This scenario underscores the critical importance of AI in our modern infrastructure and the need for robust contingency plans to mitigate such risks. https://lnkd.in/e8KFV6QK #AI #Technology #BusinessContinuity #RiskManagement Whitespace

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During yesterday's LibreQoS APNIC webinar, I posed the question: won't more bandwidth solve these problems? As Herbert Wolverson said, yes, more bandwidth is good, but, still these problems remain if queueing is done incorrectly. Here's my take on why bandwidth alone is not as good as bandwidth + good queueing policies: Generally it was believed that 'data is important, so don't throw it away; hang on to it and send it later'. In practice, this has proven to be suboptimal as two issues may emerge: 1) latency increases for some flows due to heavy demand from other flows using the same bottleneck link, 2) even a single flow can have excessive latency due to aspects of typical TCP behavior (referred to bufferbloat) when the buffers grew large enough that the data being buffered was retransmitted anyway. It turns out that not all data is equally important. Active Queue Management is the art of deciding priorities, both in deciding what data to throw away, but also in allowing some later arriving data to be transmitted ahead of data in another connection that arrived before it. These problems have been studied, and good solutions have been found by using certain queueing policies in routers and switches, referred to as “fq_codel’ and “cake”. These track the different flows not by classifying the data, but by watching the behavior. Flows that send relatively little data (DNS lookups), or at a measured pace (video chat) have priority over flows that send a lot of data as quickly as possible (App and System updates, Video and ISO downloads).

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There is so much that is so damn impressive about Nominal's execution. The team identified a truly needed product in the world. More than that... They serve their customers. Sometimes Nominal is saving days of work for an engineer detangling the performance of new hardware in an autonomous fixed wing drone. Other times, helping implement a transformational change for engineering orgs, delivering iteration speed from simulation to range to unlock an RFP goal and contract win. They are building dual use -- powering the best of commercial and public sector teams. Whether a government contractor delivering on a $12b contract. A scaled public company, integrating AI into your roadmap on to your existing HW platform. A startup which is willing a first product into existence. Nominal is there for all the dual use hardware builders who live real time, live in physical world time. The real world runs real time. The real world runs Nominal and so excited to be on the journey. Also, hiring, https://www.nominal.io/, kind of a lot. If you are awesome, they want to talk to you.

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A mathematician, a Cold War code cracker, and a billionaire investor—these aren't three separate people but one extraordinary man: Jim Simons. In the 1980s, when he founded Renaissance Technologies LLC with the aim of applying mathematics to identify the highest potential investment opportunities in the stock market, many sceptics deemed it impossible. Fast forward 40 years, and his scientific approach has revolutionised the industry, making him the most successful hedge fund manager of all time and a true inspiration for generations. Today, many entrepreneurs continue his legacy and embrace his outside-the-box mindset. I like to think I am one of them. As a former VC, when I launched ETA Technologies, I recognised that while investors claim to invest in people, they often do so without data or science. This realization led me to create a tool that applies psychometric analysis powered by AI to help investors identify the highest-potential teams to invest in. Jim Simons passed away last week, a truly tragic loss. To celebrate his fantastic life—a life that certainly deserves a movie—I want to share my favourite interview with him. His legacy shall live forever, reminding us that accurate and quantified analytics are the keys to all successful investment strategies. #innovation #technology #fundraising #inspiration https://lnkd.in/dCxK_NnH

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If you’re not ok investing in dual use, then you’re not ok investing in deeptech. Anything "deeptech" is potentially dual use. Any European LP opposed to defensetech investing is, let's be honest, a hypocrite. They may be well intentioned, but they are hypocrites nonetheless, and naive. Those same LPs benefit from the security of living in safe countries with commerce and trade and a way of life protected by militaries, police, and intelligence services. They wouldn't exist without a robust and innovative Western defense sector. So for them to be anti defensetech reeks of entitlement, and is little more than a luxury belief draped in superficial virtue signalling. Sadly, many people today have forgotten that freedom isn't free, and that democracy is very much worth defending. We have a moral obligation to remember and act accordingly. ⚔️ 🛡 https://lnkd.in/eVXZEsAF #vc #venturecapital #startups #entrepreneurs #entrepreneurship #tech #technology #innovation #deeptech #money #business

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This analysis, at least anecdotally makes sense to me. In many situations, infringe and holdout is the least painful option for large infringers. The system enables it. - The plaintiff must allocate the time and $$ to assert, taking time and $$ away from selling and developing products. Even if they engage litigation financiers they are limiting their upside potential. - The infringer continues to infringe while employing stall tactics or simply relying on the painfully slow, overburdened legal system. - The cost benefit analysis for infringers - "infringe and pay lawyers" typically outweighs the cost of design around or license. - Enhanced damages and injunctions are rare. - Litigation insurance products reduce risk all around. "The Marcum report shows that there is indeed something wrong with the patent system in the United States but it’s not excessive litigation or patent trolls. The real problem is the inability of patent owners to enforce their rights against infringers. Given the difficulty of obtaining injunctive relief and the limited enhancement of damages, it is unsurprising that predatory infringement has become a standard business practice when, at worst, all an infringer can be expected to pay is a reasonable royalty and, at best, nothing at all."

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Where is the money? "In Q1, funding to startups in the industries of military, national security and law enforcement dropped to $118 million, a 74% drop from the $459 million invested in such startups in Q1 of last year." #funding #investment #investmentstrategies #defence #dualuse #venturecapital #privateequity

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🛰 The Seraphim Space Index Q1 2024 is live 🛰 🌌 Since 2017, we have been producing the Seraphim Space quarterly VC investment Index , which allows us to share our unique access to knowledge and data about investing in space technology. This data is now available in an easy-to-use interactive format, allowing you to look back and track growth and trends from 2017 to today. View dashboard: https://lnkd.in/exvPuBkY Some highlights from the last quarter: 🤑 In Q1 2024, the space sector maintained its upward trajectory, with a notable $2.4 billion invested, marking a steady increase from Q4 2023’s $2.1 billion. This is part of a larger trend of $7.2 billion invested over the trailing twelve months to Q1 2024, compared to $6.6 billion in the preceding period. 🌕 Lunar Landers: Three attempts were made, with two successful landings! JAXA: Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's SLIM made Japan the fifth country to land on the moon. NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration's CLPS-funded missions by Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines. Despite some tipping over post-landing, these missions mark significant progress. 🚀 SpaceX Starship Launch: March's launch showcased remarkable progress. With all 33 Raptor engines firing, "hot staging" completed, and the upper stage reaching suborbital orbit, SpaceX and NASA hailed it a success. Though the landing burn was unsuccessful, it is paving the way for future achievements. 📡 Direct-to-Cell: SpaceX initiated text messaging via Starlink satellites in January, but expansion faces challenges due to FCC spectrum denial. Meanwhile, AST received a strategic investment, and Skylo raised $37m, demonstrating growing interest in broadband coverage. 🛰️ Varda Earth Return: Varda Space Industries's successful capsule return in February, in collaboration with Rocket Lab, marked a significant milestone. Additionally, Varda's space crystallisation results of Ritanovir hold promise for drug research. 🇨🇳 China's Rising Influence: China's space endeavours continue to expand, with notable advancements in both public and private sectors. Landspace's successful rocket return and Shanghai Spacecom's massive funding highlight China's growing significance. 🛡️ Starshield: SpaceX's $1.8bn contract with the NRO for Earth Observation satellites signifies a shift in focus towards EO capabilities, leveraging the Starlink platform for enhanced satellite capabilities. 🛰️ SPAC Troubles: Astra and Momentus face financial challenges, with Astra opting for a private takeover. Terran Orbital Corporation received a take-private offer from a major shareholder, Lockheed Martin. Momentus warned shareholders it was running out of money but subsequently announced a registered direct offering (RDO) of $4m from an institutional investor.

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The war on personalization Given the generous depiction of first-degree price personalization by the OECD in 2018, why would the FTC characterize the practice as a manifestation of “surveillance” in 2024? One important change in the operating environment across those two periods is the widespread availability of AI tools for achieving price personalization — and, indeed, personalization of many forms, especially with advertising. And my sense is that the proliferation of AI-based personalization tools — used to optimize not only prices but also in-product content and user experience elements — will attract continued scrutiny given the automated and largely opaque nature of the process.

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Key takeaways from VC Goat - Vinod Khosla podcast. - The firm cares more about working on interesting problems with large technical solutions rather than just maximizing IRR. The team is there because they believe in the mission. - Khosla assumes they've lost the money the day they invest, and then maximizes for the upside opportunity. He calls it "option value investing" rather than IRR investing. - Khosla has contrarian bets in AI (neuro-symbolic computing, probabilistic approaches), biotech, robotics, crypto, and more. - He believes aviation fuels, fusion energy, new transit systems, and other contrarian areas ignored by most investors will be huge opportunities. - Most large innovations come from outsiders, not industry insiders. Khosla looks for founders who can learn a business rapidly rather than have deep domain expertise. The Future Impact of AI - AI will be deflationary and increase productivity growth to 4% annually vs the typical 2% forecast. This will cause great abundance but also increasing income inequality. - Bipedal robots will take over most manufacturing and manual labor jobs within 20-25 years. This will free humans to be more creative and pursue their passions. - Education will shift from job training to creativity. Uniquely human elements like taste and curation will be most valued in an AI-enabled world. https://lnkd.in/gqBsmbks

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The “#TragedyOfTheCommons,” is the damage that actions by individuals can inflict on the environment at large, but what about the effects of the Internet as interconnections proliferate and increase in strength, creating valuable commons in virtual space. http://ow.ly/oZus30pocMN

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Interesting piece from Marc Andreessen on how startups are not getting the regulatory support they need to sustain America's technological leadership. "Regulatory agencies have been green lit to use brute force investigations, prosecutions, intimidation, and threats to hobble new industries, such as Blockchain. Regulatory agencies are being green lit in real time to do the same to Artificial Intelligence." While many investors themselves (both in the US and Europe) are worried how AI will change our lives, our jobs and social interactions, the top VC opinion leader thinks regulation is already too restrictive. #techstartups #techleadership #strategicgrowth

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I recently had the honor of being featured on The Deal Scout. In this insightful 7-minute interview with Joshua Wilson, I shared early secrets and best practices from 35+ years in the Venture Capital industry that are essential to navigating the VC landscape and establishing a foothold in this dynamic field. You can listen to the interview on Joshua Wilson's post here 👇 #GPN #GuyPaulNohra #VentureCapital #Entrepreneur #Leadership #Philanthropy

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Ross Haleliuk posted the fantastic article below. This is the world where I live day-to-day. At TechOperators, we invest mostly in early-stage cyber, but we do things a little differently, and we believe there are ways to invest successfully outside of pure Power Law math. The article argues that many security problems are too small for VC. I agree. I often try to convince bootstrapped founders not to raise venture because doing so can turn a successful, slow-growing bootstrapped company into a failed venture-backed company because, despite a large infusion of capital, it couldn't double every year. VC is not monolithic--not by stage, strategy, or style. Venture is often equated with "Tier 1 Venture". Ross argues that VC is not always great for early-stage cyber--and he is right. Bootstrapping AND VC work when incentives are aligned. Does it work for an early-stage VC with a <$200M fund to invest in several early companies at reasonable valuations, setting up the conditions for reasonable exits that pay off for both investors and founders? Yes. Does it work for $800M funds investing in seed stage at $100M+ valuations? Well, that depends! Power law says it does (for VC), but the unfortunate externality is that these rounds destroy companies and founder equity more often than not. There is a role for patient capital in this ecosystem to fuel successful companies that retain exit optionality as they scale--driving exit value for both founders and investors.

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Pervasive AI Disruption Knows No Bounds Emerging technologies are now built almost exclusively around the diverse cognitive capabilities of Integrated AI (what I call Multiple Intelligences for Machines). This is creating a world of Pervasive AI, spanning across and uniting the world of both physical and digital. in this world, constantly emerging new products, processes, experiences and ventures create massive increases in productivity, democratization and speed / adaptability / agility. This is how emerging technology can be used to create the kinds of game-changing asymmetries that overturn markets. And those that transform history. https://lnkd.in/dwSbuzwF

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I’m thoughtful about the impact that the dissolution of OpenAI’s risk and ethics team led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike might have on the direction of the company’s tech & product development. And - this strengthens my resolve to earn a Masters of Data Science & AI degree over the next 18 months, weighted toward the deeply important conversation around building tech within a framework of ethics, equity and risk mitigation. We must find an equilibrium that balances the raw speed of AI innovation with intentionality. Can’t wait to get started! OpenAI #ai #BuildWithIntention #venturestudios #vc

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Jeff Bezos, Andy Jassy, and other execs are accused of using the ephemeral messaging app for months after the feds notified Amazon of the antitrust investigation. FTC lawyers submitted a filing on Thursday that claims Amazon’s top execs used Signal’s disappearing messages feature to destroy evidence relevant to the agency’s massive antitrust lawsuit. (You remember the one? The FTC accused Amazon of creating a secret “Project Nessie” pricing algorithm that may have generated more than $1 billion in extra profits.) Now, The Washington Post (which is owned by Amazon founder and former CEO Jeff Bezos) reports that Amazon is just one of several companies recently accused of turning to encrypted messaging apps like #Signal that can permanently erase messages automatically. https://lnkd.in/gs_U85fE #recordkeeping #whatsapp #compliance #sec #text #texting #imessage #textmessaging #SMS #MMS #imessage #recordkeeping #whatsapp #compliance #sec #text #texting #textmessaging #SMS #MMS #facetime Apple Google Meta Facebook #Android #apple #google #meta #facebook #compliance #financialservices #technology #whatsapparchiving WhatsApp #business WeChat