John O'Farrell

Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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Thrilled to announce the launch of our inaugural edition of Beyond Benchmarks at Emergence Capital. This comprehensive report dives deep into the metrics and trends shaping the early-stage enterprise cloud market. A huge thank you to our VC partners and contributors for making this possible! Here's a sneak peek of our findings: --> 60% of companies have already integrated GenAI into their service offerings, with another 20% planning to do so this year. --> While most companies use OpenAI as their primary LLM, many are experimenting with multiple models. We’re seeing a trend toward intelligently routing GenAI inference requests based on cost, performance, and security. --> Companies that have implemented GenAI are showing promising results, with a 7% higher NDR compared to those that haven’t. Beyond Benchmarks goes further with more GenAI trends, insights on the current fundraising environment, and key performance metrics. Our goal is to provide founders and their teams with valuable benchmarks to help them make better-informed decisions. At Emergence Capital, we're committed to helping founders build iconic companies. Dive into the full report here: https://lnkd.in/g6bnvAZM

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This is quite a piece on accusations of unethical pay-to-play within the #cyber #VC ecosystem. -Guaranteed first-year sales for portfolio companies -Formal loyalty program for CISOs -Points awarded within the program for CISO commitment level to portfolio companies (meetings, PoCs, product purchases) -Share of GP fees for CISOs in the loyalty program https://lnkd.in/gDta7Gp7

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⚡ Kicking off 🌎 Earth Day with exciting news as we unveil 8090 Industries' latest investment in Exowatt led by Hannan P. along with Sam Altman Andreessen Horowitz, Atomic, Overmatch Ventures, Protagonist, and many more. As the boom in AI heightens the energy demand for data centers, Exowatt is pioneering a fundamental breakthrough in baseload renewable energy that helps makes $0.01 per kilowatt-hour, 24 hours a day a reality for commercial and industrial use cases. 🏗 How does it work? The Exowatt P3, represents a breakthrough 3-in-1 modular system, a heat collector, a heat battery, and a heat engine capable of providing dispatchable power and heat 24 hours a day. Unlike traditional solar panels that convert sunlight into electricity directly, Exowatt uses a unique approach by storing solar energy in a thermal battery, which can retain this energy for up to 24 hours per day. The Exowatt P3 modules are designed to fit the space of a standard 40-foot shipping container. They can be deployed on small and large commercial and industrial projects, linearly scaling with workload size and infrastructure requirements. Best captured by Founder and CEO Hannan P. himself, an industrialist you're going to want to pay close attention to: “You don’t have to go back to fossil fuels to solve the data-center energy problem…That’s counterproductive and unlike traditional renewable solutions that require significant upfront costs and extended setup times, Exowatt's modular system can be deployed rapidly and cost-effectively – and it's available THIS YEAR. Exowatt is built to respond quickly to the escalating energy demands of the modern world, especially those spurred by the rapid growth of AI." 👀 Who Cares? Exowatt has a backlog of demand for OVER 500 megawatts for data centers across the U.S. and plans to begin deployments later this year. With this $20 million seed funding, Exowatt intends to expand its team and deploy the Exowatt P3 with its first set of data center customers. Stay tuned! Lots to come! cc Kerem Ozmen Wes Mendenhall Filip Vurdelja Haluk Sabanci Dincer Grant Brown Ishan Meswani Garuth A. Andrew Irwin Charles Oppenheimer Fatimah Bello #energyabundance #decarbonization #climatetech

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"Innovation is often just improvisation." "Even things that seem new are likely not actually new." Philip Brittan made these two points (and many others) in his keynote at a summit here in #Bozeman yesterday. I thought he was spot on, and his talk took my mind to the importance of leaning on experienced advisors when you're a #startup #founder. I've always felt that problems are really just opportunities for value creation. I also believe that as we grow in our careers, we assemble a history of crafty solutions which ended up facilitating new value. Many of the best examples happen on the fly, where the consequence of moving slowly can be existential. Founders have no shortage of problems to solve and breakages to fix. And I think too many of us go at it alone. I think it's critical to align with experienced advisors who carry with them diverse backgrounds. Folks who have been there before and provide a range of perspective and experience dealing with a broader set of challenges. This collective knowledge base creates leverage for founders solving problems - and creating value - in the here and now. #VentureStudios do this. So do good #VCs.

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Space tech-focused investment firm Seraphim Space Space launched its second VC fund, SSV II, to back early-stage startups in the global space tech market. The fund aims to build a portfolio of 30 startups, investing in seed and Series A stages. The latest fund's target size is larger than its predecessor's, which closed at £70M ($90M) in 2017. The fund's investment themes include AI applications for space data, in-orbit computing, space-enabled communications, and microgravity for science. Eutelsat is one of the limited partners that contributed to the latest fund. Seraphim Space aims to stand out with its track record, having returned three times the original investment from its first fund. The first fund's returns were driven by five exits, including Siemens' acquisition of UltraSOC and four IPOs of Arqit, AST SpaceMobile, Nightingale, and Spire Global. The British firm listed its growth fund Seraphim Space Investment Trust (SSIT) on the London Stock Exchange in July 2021, getting about £250M (~$300M) in gross proceeds. The fund's market cap touched an all-time low of £130M ($162M) in July 2023. The market for space tech is expected to grow significantly, with the World Economic Forum and McKinsey estimating it could be worth $1.8R by 2035.

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Key takeaways from VC Goat - Vinod Khosla podcast. - The firm cares more about working on interesting problems with large technical solutions rather than just maximizing IRR. The team is there because they believe in the mission. - Khosla assumes they've lost the money the day they invest, and then maximizes for the upside opportunity. He calls it "option value investing" rather than IRR investing. - Khosla has contrarian bets in AI (neuro-symbolic computing, probabilistic approaches), biotech, robotics, crypto, and more. - He believes aviation fuels, fusion energy, new transit systems, and other contrarian areas ignored by most investors will be huge opportunities. - Most large innovations come from outsiders, not industry insiders. Khosla looks for founders who can learn a business rapidly rather than have deep domain expertise. The Future Impact of AI - AI will be deflationary and increase productivity growth to 4% annually vs the typical 2% forecast. This will cause great abundance but also increasing income inequality. - Bipedal robots will take over most manufacturing and manual labor jobs within 20-25 years. This will free humans to be more creative and pursue their passions. - Education will shift from job training to creativity. Uniquely human elements like taste and curation will be most valued in an AI-enabled world. https://lnkd.in/gqBsmbks

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💪💡Wisdom is learning from past mistakes from others but also oneself. Retrospection with action is powerful. An insightful weekend read from the WSJ… Christopher Mims shares his list, from 10 years of covering consumer tech for the The Wall Street Journal: ( link here: https://lnkd.in/eKj2wX_t ) 1. Disruption is overrated. 2. Human factors are everything in tech adoption. 3. People lie to themselves… and to you. 4. Tech bubbles are productive, even if wasteful. 5. We’ve got more power to shape how tech impacts us. Some of my list, from 25 years of early stage consumer internet investing and operating: 1. Tech disruption is overestimated in the short run, underestimated in the long run. (Amara’s Law) 2. Social proof is powerful in tech adoption. 3. Hope kills. Execution is everything. 4. Run towards tech bubbles. 5. Tech optimism empowers positive change.

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This is a good resource I've stumbled upon. It covers a plethora of VC and startup-related topics and contains links to expand your knowledge. https://lnkd.in/dqkdV4fA TL;DR: "It's the founders, stupid!" These two lines made me hover over: "I know the physical and emotional tolls that entrepreneurs face". "Resources for Managing Founder Anxiety and Depression" I've been one myself, and it's not for the faint-hearted. I struggled and failed many times. From the standpoint of a person working now for a VC fund, the ability to support a founder who was hit with too much at the same time, to know how to listen, mirror and label Chris Voss's style, and a bit of guidance to build confidence back can do wonders. Assisting portfolio companies doesn't have to be just intros and throwing money or unsolicited advice. And what about identifying troublesome founders before investing to prevent assisting portfolio companies from becoming a nightmare flop? Ahh, that's a tricky one. Startups fail for a variety of reasons. At the early stage, we should look at many things, to name a few: product-market fit, go-to-market, blue ocean or zero to one, CAC and LTV ratio, CAP table, passion, leadership potential, intelligence, technical ability, and many, many more. Crunch the numbers. Sure. What about the early stage? Limited information and knowledge when a decision has to be made, and the outcome is impossible to predict because the future is unknown and unknowable. Examine the founders. If you don't read the founders right and overlook some hidden toxic traits and coping mechanisms that mask something that can derail the startup and founders down the road (vulnerable narcissism, antisocial tendencies, Machiavellism, blameshifting or more benign like anxiety-prone, conflict avoidance, burn-out tendency, inability to delegate, perfectionism, risk aversion, etc.), the chances that it will be your next outlier significantly diminish. How many of you saw dead equity on the capable, founders' clash, low morale, a founder playing the sunk cost game with the fund after burning cash, lying, or even more brazen behaviours like experimenting with horse tranquilisers and smoking weed on a podcast? A "Sudden" shift of values with a splash of megalomania could lead to a CEO removal attempt by the board. Or stealing "HER" voice. It is fun to watch as a TV drama, not to deal with as your portfolio. We won't be able to see it all during a few conversations with the founders and not everyone is Wendy Rhoades from Billions. Knowing how to ask a question behind which is a hidden question and being able to detect when founders say what they think we want to hear to get the funding is a good start. Spending extra time learning that is a good investment. A splash of psychology, empathy, self-awareness, and emotional intelligence to become an excellent GP won't harm your ability to identify and help the right entrepreneurs build great companies.

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The joining of Google Next Renew and OhmConnect signals some validation of an effort started some eight years ago. Championed by Dave Wechsler, Curtis Snyder and Jon Kaplowitz, we worked to develop a virtual power-plant by giving away XFINITY HOME connected thermostats in exchange for demand response agreements. With enough concentration this would prove to reduce consumption on demand. Unfortunately, initial success gave way to larger competing priorities. We must continue to invest in the nation's infrastructure in a way that benefits and rewards customers, improves reliability and reduces human impact on the environment. I'm eager to see how this partnership will deliver a substantial impact in energy efficiency, demand response, grid optimization, and customer engagement. It's a promising step. How do you think the merger of Google Nest Renew and OHMConnect will impact residential energy management? https://lnkd.in/ev_z2Wbz

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Exciting news! We just sent out the inaugural newsletter for Future Frontier Capital, our pre-seed venture fund backing frontier tech startups. As I hit "send," I realized how launching FFC parallels the path of the founders we support. Starting FFC has required the same passion, perseverance, and self-belief that drive entrepreneurs. Just like a startup, getting a VC fund off the ground demands relentless hustle—building the brand, perfecting the pitch, and networking tirelessly. There are constant challenges that test your resolve and endless hours of unglamorous work behind the scenes. And perhaps most daunting - the self-doubt, wondering if you're crazy for attempting something so bold. Pushing through that negative self-talk requires unshakable faith in your mission. Raising this VC fund reminds me of starting our IP strategy and patent analytics firm two decades ago. It’s a powerful reminder of the perseverance, creativity, and resilience needed to turn an ambitious idea into reality. This experience makes us more empathetic partners, ready to support the founders we back. Our work is just beginning, and this inaugural newsletter underscores our commitment to supporting frontier tech startups every step of the way. #startups #VentureCapital #EmergingManagers #Entrepreneurship #InnovationMindSet

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"Editors note: Welcome to issue #2 of Transcriptions. Today, we’d like to present a conversation between Qasar Younis of Applied Intuition, and Bilal Zuberi of Lux Capital. We discovered Qasar recently, and find his focus and clarity of thinking to be admirable. What follows is a lightly edited transcript of their talk, first held at the Paklaunch forum." Link to transcipt: https://lnkd.in/gH4uBmPE

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In our latest episode on the Practical Nerds podcast, Patric and I talk about our earned learnings on how founders (and other VCs) should choose the right (Co)Investors for their startup (Construction-tech or otherwise). Which of these do you agree with ? What did we miss ?

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New week, new CVC! Huge congrats to Eric Truebenbach for launching Teradyne Robotics Ventures, and a big kudos to my colleagues Patrick FitzGerald and Danny Boisson for being part of the journey. It's so encouraging to see more and more investors understand the importance of hardtech and robotics, and it's not every day that a new CVC launches and shows their commitment by making an investment in the first two weeks! As always, for my VC friends, if you have portfolio companies in the robotics space looking to bring on strategic capital from one of the world's giants in automation, let us know! If you are a passionate entrepreneur working on hardware or software solutions within robotics, please reach out! We'd love to talk to you. #venturecapital #startups #robotics #hardware #corporate #cvc #corporateventurecapital

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The VC with more unicorns than Accel, Insight & Sofbank only invests in developing economies. Impressive!  Endeavor‘s rules based VC, Endeavor Catalyst, is probably the best example of how tech and VC have gone global. Vamos, vamos, vamos Allen Taylor! 

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Super helpful article and accompanying doc with a #Startup #Equity Calculator to determine the equity for early hires, thanks to Pear VC head of talent Matt Birnbaum! Thanks for sharing Pejman Nozad! 🙏🏼 You can read more here How to structure startup equity for early hires: https://lnkd.in/ggmpT5-Y Google Doc: https://lnkd.in/gjsvths6

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Looking forward to discussing how changing demographics and culture norms are affecting investment opportunities in longevity, health and well-being at The Care Summit today Alongside Cake Ventures' Monique Woodard, Ziegler's Dan Hermann, Oak HC/FT's Billy Deitch and JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Jennifer Edwards, we’ll dive into the trends shaping how we are investing in the space: - Last year marked one of the most significant social and economic moments in modern times: The number of older adults—those aged 50 and over- surpassed the number of children under the age of 15 for the first time. - In 2020 the 50 plus population contributed $45 trillion to global GDP, or 34% of the total. That equates to about 3x the revenue of the world’s 100 highest- earning companies in 2020. - The U.S. population grew by 24.5 million from 2010 to 2022, and Hispanics accounted for 53% of this increase – a greater share than any other racial or ethnic group. - Women around the world and across all ages drive 64% of consumer spending

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Today marks a groundbreaking moment for BLCK VC and our fellow collaborators—Diversity VC, All Raise, 2Gether-International, SomosVC, StartOut, and VetsinTech—as we proudly announce the launch of the Diversity Data Alliance. This important alliance underscores our unwavering commitment to nurturing a venture capital and entrepreneurial ecosystem abundant in equity and inclusiveness. By standardizing and linking our data, we empower ourselves with the essential tools to track deeper trends that have, until now, eluded us to identify and fill funding gaps for historically excluded investors, founders, and operators. We can’t change what we do not measure, and now with the Diversity Data Alliance, we're now equipped to do both. Join us in this mission. Learn more and get involved: https://lnkd.in/eEZKdrac #DiversityDataAlliance #BLCKVC #VentureCapital #MeasureToChange

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I find it hard to believe that with millions of EVs entering the market and the proliferation of AI compute that PGE is actually going to have excess capacity in 2040 without any additional generation from 3rd parties. I am also curious if there are enough transmission lines and if PGE views that as someone else’s problem. Maybe they are planning on AI and ACTUAL figuring it all out! https://lnkd.in/gybsMmaw

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