Frank Ingriselli

Gelber Gas Daily (+ crude!) #NaturalGas -- Gelber & Associates Forecasts 76 Bcf Injection Into Storage for Week Ended May 24th: NYMEX natural gas futures are down -$0.15, last trading at $2.67/MMBtu. This morning, ConocoPhillips announced a $17 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil Corp. Dealmakers say the acquisition enhances ConocoPhillips' presence in key domestic shale regions and adds international reserves, marking another significant consolidation in upstream as producers position around expectations of sustained oil and gas demand. This acquisition is distinct in its focus on cost-cutting in mature shale fields, in comparison to others largely aimed at securing future drilling locations. Despite being smaller than acquisitions by Exxon and Chevron in late 2023, the deal could still attract scrutiny from the FTC over antitrust concerns. Speaking of Chevron, Hess shareholders approved its landmark $53 billion merger with the oil giant yesterday, despite an ongoing arbitration dispute with ExxonMobil over oil fields in Guyana. For the week ended May 24th, Gelber & Associates is forecasting a 76 Bcf injection into natural gas storage. This would bring US gas stocks to 2787 Bcf, narrowing the storage surplus for the fifth consecutive week. The five-year average injection for this time of year would be 104 Bcf, with last year's injection measured at 106 Bcf. The supply-demand balance was tighter than seasonal norms for the week, due to the higher temperatures primarily in the South Central which spurred an increase in power burn. As a result, most estimates ranged within a tight 75-85 Bcf range for the week, with analysts highly confident that the storage surplus to the 5-year average would continue to decrease. #Crude -- Crude Sees Limited Support From Sustained Middle East Risk Amid Rate Cut Worries: Crude oil futures are down -$0.56, last trading at $79.29/bbl. Crude extended this week’s rally up to the $80 level in the afternoon yesterday, managing to stay above it overnight before reverting back below it this morning. Crude prices remain somewhat supported by the bullish factor of heightened tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas (and most recently, Egypt). Offsetting this are movements in equities which reflect reduced hopes of rate cuts as expectations continue to be pushed back further out into the year. Prices in federal funds futures confirm that investors perceive the chances of rate cuts in September’s meeting being lower than they were last week or a month ago. #ConocoPhillips #MarathonOilCorporation #Marathon #Exxon #Chevron #Oilandgas #Commodities #NYMEX #HenryHub #Trading #Hedging #Gelber #markets #LNG #OPEC #oil #EIA #gas #gelber #WTI #Energy

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Good analysis and summary!

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Permian Basin: Center of E&P Activity #oil #gas #USA #energy #growth #boom #strategic #consolidation #texas #newmexico #production #expansion #services #ofs https://lnkd.in/gpUmGWNQ

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Energy Market Update - April 19, 2024 In today’s dynamic energy market, here are the critical figures and trends impacting the industry: NYMEX Natural Gas Pricing: Today's Performance: Opened at $1.74, peaked at $1.80, dipped to $1.72, and currently stands at $1.75. Week-over-Week Gain: +$0.05 Year-over-Year Decline: -$0.50 Market Technicals: Current Pricing: Below the 50-day, 20-day, and 9-day averages, all at $1.75. Key Levels: Resistance starts at $1.79 and $1.87, with support beginning at $1.68 and $1.66. Basis and Export Insights: Basis Updates: Slight increases in PG&E and SoCal CG bases. LNG Exports: Reached 10.9 Bcf/D yesterday, highlighting robust export activity. Supply and Demand: Today’s Estimated Supply: 104.0 Bcf, with a 7-day average of 103.8 Bcf. Demand Projections: Today’s estimated demand is 93.7 Bcf, with a rising trend expected over the next week. Storage and Weather Forecast: Storage: Yesterday's injection exceeded forecasts at 50 Bcf, contributing to current levels that are 622 Bcf above the 5-year average. Weather Impact: Moderate to high demand expected due to chilly conditions across major regions in the next 6 days. Energy Prices and Market Outlook: Crude Oil: Currently at $82.78 with a downward trend projected. Renewable Energy Outlook: Wave energy is touted as a future key renewable source, with hydro levels expected to be 6% higher in 2024. Forward-Looking Statements: Pricing Strips: Summer prices range from $3.35 to $4.06, while winter prices are forecasted to be between $6.40 and $7.12. Market Sentiment: While the short-term outlook due to weather supports higher prices, fundamental indicators suggest a bearish trend remains dominant. This comprehensive overview provides actionable insights for industry stakeholders. Stay tuned for more updates and discussions on how these trends might evolve. #EnergyMarkets #NaturalGas #Commodities #MarketAnalysis #RenewableEnergy #ProfessionalNetworking

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Royalty Holders Must Share Post-Production Costs in "At-the-Well" Leases In the recent Carl v. Hilcorp Energy ruling, the Texas Supreme Court held that royalty holders of an "at-the-well" royalty provision are not entitled to royalties on gas used for post-production purposes off the lease premises. The Court determined that because the royalty owed was based on the "market value at the well," lessors must bear a proportionate share of post-production costs, reaffirming precedent that holders of "at-the-well" royalties must share in such expenses. Dive deeper into this landmark case and its implications by reading the full analysis on our website. #oilandgas #energylaw #royalties #oilandgaslaw #landman #titleopinion #leaseanalysis #postproductioncosts #atthewell #supremecourt #litigation #lawfirmmarketing #lawfirmblog

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NatGas Short-Term Outlook Production: Low natgas prices are leading to a reduction in production in the US. Dry natgas production is expected to fall by 2% from Q1 '24 to Q2 '24, with June production averaging 102Bcf/d—down 4% from Dec' 23. This decline is due to producers announcing curtailments amid low prices and a significant price gap between natural gas and petroleum products, pushing producers to extract higher-value HGLs instead. Despite a projected 1% decrease in U.S. dry natgas production this year compared to last year, a 2% rise in '25 is expected, reaching nearly 105Bcf/d - record high. This increase is driven by a forecasted rise in natgas prices, incentivizing more drilling dry gas. Increased crude production will result in more associated natgas production. We also expect the gap between natural gas and petroleum prices to narrow in 2025, potentially keeping more HGLs in the gas stream. NatGas Consumption: For 24, U.S. natgas consumption is forecasted to remain unchanged from last year, averaging 89Bcf/d. Small increases in the Resi, Comm, and power sectors will be offset by a slight decline in the industrial sector. In May '24, natgas consumption is expected to average 72Bcf/d, 3% less than in May 23. This decrease reflects an anticipated reduction in natgas used for power gen due to cooler temperatures and increased RE generation. May typically sees lower natgas consumption in the U.S. due to reduced demand for HDDs and not yet increased CDDs. Following the Y/Y drop in May, we expect relatively flat consumption through '25. In the 2nd half of '24, natgas consumption is forecasted to average 88Bcf/d, 1% more than in the same period of '23. The Resi and Comm sectors are expected to see a 7% increase in consumption due to a forecasted colder Q4 '24 compared to the very mild Q4 '23, boosting HDDs. NatGas Consumption for Power: The growth in power gen from REs, particularly solar, in '24 compared to '23, is curbing natgas consumption beyond last year's levels. Despite a 3% increase in expected power gen this summer (May–Sep) compared to last summer, natgas consumption in the power sector is forecasted to remain similar to last summer, which recorded the highest power sector consumption. This summer, natgas-fired power gen will be driven by declines in coal-fired gene due to retirements and overall higher power gen from warmer-than-normal temperatures. Low natgas prices will also encourage the use of natgas-fired power plants. These factors will keep U.S. natgas consumption for power gen near last year's record levels. Looking ahead to the summer of 2025, the forecast is that natgas consumption for power gen will again average about 41Bcf/d, as trends of growing power demand, reduced coal-fired gen, and increased RE gen continue. There you have it. #powergenration #naturalgas #renewableenergy #shorttermnatgasforecast

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Importance of Skilled Labor to Critical Minerals Establishing a robust domestic midstream for critical minerals is important, and something I'm often asked about. Recently, I published a paper on the topic for the Bipartisan Policy Center (linked below). A key factor to overcome, and one of the most cited by project owners, is the significant recruiting and retaining challenges due to severe labor shortages and intense competition for skilled workers. The U.S. industrial manufacturing sector, which had a shortfall of over 600,000 workers in 2023, is expected to see this gap widen to 2.1 million positions by 2030. This shortage directly impacts critical minerals projects that rely on similar skill sets, exacerbating the pressure on the industry. Critical minerals projects compete with semiconductor and battery manufacturing companies for skilled positions such as machinists, electricians, maintenance staff, equipment operators, and construction workers. Additionally, there is a notable shortage of individuals qualified for specialized roles essential for operational efficiency and quality control, including chemists, quality control analysts, and laboratory technicians. The talent pool is further strained by a 39% decline in mining engineering graduates since 2016, limiting the availability of essential professionals like mining engineers, metallurgists, and geologists. The construction sector, vital for building and maintaining critical minerals processing facilities, is also experiencing a severe labor shortage, with a deficit of 650,000 workers as of July 2023. This shortage impacts infrastructure development in regions where midstream operations are necessary, often requiring significant relocation efforts. To address these challenges, strategic investments in training programs, relocation incentives, supportive immigration policies, and advanced manufacturing technologies are essential. By establishing industry-specific training initiatives and partnering with educational institutions, the sector can develop a pipeline of skilled labor but it will take time a forward-thinking. We must grow the potential pool of interested professionals, with efforts like Project MFG. The topic of skilled labor is one I intend to evaluate deeper to consider what must be done to establish these projects successfully while growing the quality of life for American workers. Link to my recent report: https://lnkd.in/gSy7WSau

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📊 Over the past two years, the NYMEX price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has seen dramatic highs and lows, with impacts from geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating demand. The Permian Basin remains a production powerhouse, contributing 47.3% of U.S. crude and 25% of natural gas, even as falling prices impact investment and production growth. ➡️ Learn more in our latest blog by Jeff Bolyard, Principal, Energy Supply Advisory: https://bit.ly/4eAXr1W This post is featured in our June 2024 Monthly Monitor, which includes articles and analysis for the natural gas, electric, crude oil, and sustainability markets. ➡️ Read the full report: https://bit.ly/3zahUdC #EnergyMarket #NaturalGas #WTI #EnergySupplyAdvisory

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In this week's #OilandGas top stories: The Supreme Court ruled that the unconstitutionality action issued against the Hydrocarbons Law of 2021 is unfounded, raising tensions. This and more in your weekly roundup! #WeeklyRoundup #MexicoBusinessNews #MexicoOilandGas

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Get exclusive insights into the oil and gas industry with THE UPSIDE, curated weekly by Jay Young for executives. Dive into news, commentary, and strategic analyses at no cost. Elevate your industry understanding—subscribe to THE UPSIDE today. #oilandgas #newsletter https://hubs.li/Q02txpvM0

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Projected global mergers and acquisitions in the upstream sector could hit $150 billion by 2024, exceeding the first quarter's $64 billion. Leading the pack is the US shale industry, specifically in North America, with assets worth $80 billion available for acquisition.

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Patriot Energy Resources Group - Market Outlook for May 16, 2024 Energy Markets Update by Dave Haskett, Kitty Louie and Dwayne Big Old Man. Despite a recent drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, Wednesday's prices saw little impact. However, this morning, WTI is back on an upward trend, aiming to reach the US$80 per barrel mark. Last night, WTI increased by US$0.61 per barrel, settling at US$78.63, and is now hovering close to US$80 per barrel. In broader market news, the S&P 500 closed above 5300 for the first time, marking a significant milestone. With Memorial Day approaching, Americans are expected to hit the road in large numbers, contributing to increased demand. The refinery maintenance season is winding down, preparing for the summer driving season. Refinery inputs have risen to 16.3 million barrels per day from 15.9 million barrels per day last week. On the natural gas front, NYMEX prices increased by $0.07 per Mmbtu, settling at $2.416 per Mmbtu. The Freeport LNG facility is now fully operational, with a lineup of ships ready for export. Sabine Pass has also increased its export capacity to 13.2 billion cubic feet per day, up from 12.4 billion cubic feet per day. Analysts suggest that strong demand, combined with economic shut-ins and maintenance, is essential to keep production levels in check. Stay tuned for more updates as Patriot Energy Marketing continues to monitor market trends and their potential impacts on the energy sector. https://lnkd.in/gWQW7rHt

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Had the oil market already priced Iran’s attack? Around 2 a.m. GMT, news broke that three Israeli drones over the Iranian city of Isfahan had been shot down. This marks a decisive moment since Israel was expected to retaliate after Iran’s recent attack. However, markets appeared not to have priced in Israel’s counteroffensive. After the weekend attacks, many market participants were anticipating upside pressure in the Monday open, but the session was uneventful and the rest of the week had so far seen losses of around $3.5 per barrel – bringing Brent price back to 24 March levels of around $86.5 per barrel as of the Thursday session. After last night’s 2 a.m. GMT drone attack at Isfahan, ICE Brent front-month futures jumped $3 to $90 per barrel, before quickly falling back to the same level as the Thursday close. How do we reconcile the escalating risk with this week’s bearish price movement? Markets tend to factor in unaccounted risk as price action – that is, markets react to new information, so it matters whether or not the event was expected. Markets had likely already accounted for the possibility of the event. Brent rose to $92 per barrel last week, while front-month futures closed at $90.5 on Friday. Rystad Energy calculates that the “fair value” of Brent for April, based on fundamentals, is around $83 per barrel. If, the markets had already accounted for the extraordinary event and Brent at $92 per barrel as of last week implied a $5-7 deviation from fundamental value, then this week’s current reversion to the fundamental value should be a surprise. In terms of the risk of disruption to Iranian exports and production, on average 1 million bpd of Iranian crude goes to China and competes in the medium-sour basket against grades that offer similar product yields, with the likes of Basrah medium (Iraq), Arab Medium (Saudi Arabia), Oman Blend (Oman), and Upper Zakum (UAE). China’s total imports of medium-sour grades ranged between 6.5 million and 7.5 million bpd in the past year, and if Iranian production is disrupted, there are viable alternatives among Middle East producers with spare capacity. China accumulated substantial amounts of crude in commercial storage during the second half of 2023. How likely it is that Iran’s production infrastructure is effectively affected? Around 90% of Iran’s exports leave from the Kharg Island oil terminal in the Persian Gulf, which is fed by a network of pipelines across the country. There is one oil refinery operated by NIOC in Isfahan, the city that received the first retaliatory attacks by Israel this morning. The distribution of wells is also key. More details about Iran's oil fundamentals and overall infraestructure risk in the full commentary. Our clients, have full access in the link below: https://lnkd.in/e2yT4AUs Mukesh Sahdev Janiv Shah Kartik Arvind Allyson Agosta Jorge León Rohan Goindi Aditya Rath Susan Bell Amir Zaman Billy Snaith

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After more than $230 billion worth of mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. oil and gas industry in 2023, the M&A momentum continued in the first half of 2024, too, with tens of billions of dollars worth of new deals announced so far this year. Last year, U.S. oil and gas exploration and production companies spent as much as $234 billion on M&As—the highest such spend in real dollar terms since 2012, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in an analysis in March. The deal-making of the past year marks a return to the consolidation trend from before 2020, the EIA noted. Between 2020 and 2022, heightened market volatility and uncertainties in demand and supply led to a decline in transactions.  Now deals are being announced almost every week, since ExxonMobil and Chevron announced in October 2023 their respective deals worth over $50 billion each. Since the end of 2022, the U.S. upstream sector has been announcing more deals in terms of value compared to the international upstream industry, according to data from Enverus M&A Analytics cited by Reuters on Monday. The record so far in the U.S. upstream dealmaking was in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a total of $144.3 billion of transaction value announced. This included Exxon and Chevron’s mega-deals. This year, the latest merger in the U.S. oil and gas industry was announced at the end of May when ConocoPhillips said it had agreed to buy Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal with an enterprise value of $22.5 billion, inclusive of $5.4 billion of net debt.  The merger wave is far from over, many market observers say. The deal value so far this year has already surpassed the total deal value of $69 billion recorded for the entire first half of 2023, Atul Raina, Vice President of Upstream M&A Research at Rystad Energy, wrote in an analysis at the end of May. “Overall, North America is expected to continue driving this future M&A activity, with opportunities worth nearly $80 billion on the market, including nearly $41 billion worth of non-Permian shale opportunities,” Raina said days before the ConocoPhillips-Marathon Oil deal was announced. By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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#controlledby MAC Energy Private Capital, a Shaver Family Office Fund. The Shaver Family Office, founded in 2005 on the proceeds of oil and gas assets ir West Virginia, is launching three funds. The funds open up the opportunity for oth family offices to invest alongside one of the Appalachian Basin's leading natural g producers. Steve Shaver and his son, Mike, founded the Shaver Family Office in 2005, ten years after the family business, Mountain V Oil & Gas, made a strategic sale of 280 wells Linn Energy in Pennsylvania. "We bought our first oil and gas assets in 1994 and sold them to Linn Energy in a private sale, which led us to establish the family office. We used this first infusion cash to invest in more oil and gas assets and grow the company, in addition to doi some real estate investing," says Shaver. A Value-Add Fund (target size of $20 million), with Mountain V having identified 50 wells for rehabilitation to tap in to previously bypassed oil production zones. * * * * * * * #investor #investors #privateequity #publiccompany #ipo #crowdraise #fundraise #venturecapital #vc #familyoffice #ria #money #investments #capitalraise #oilandgas #oilindustry #oil #naturalgas #oilinvestments #oilprice #investing #investment #invest #realestate #texas #texasoil #cleanenergy #esg #hydrogen #privateplacement #regd #accreditedinvestor #registeredinvestmentadvisor #public

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