Chon Tang

#ProjectForABillion Today, in our regular column, I want to talk about the Cariloop project, which raised $20 million in a Series C round this spring. The lead investor was ABS Capital, which is also known for its investments in PowerReviews (recently exited) and LabConnect. But let's get back to the project in the Mental Health category. By the way, if psychologists ever asked me how to get rich and build a capitalized business, I would recommend working in their specialty and creating projects for corporations in the psychological and mental health category. In 2023, $435.2 billion was directed to this industry (this includes all project investments, not just venture capital). While there are still some managers in Russia (and elsewhere) who don't believe that a depressed employee who sleeps poorly, is torn between caring for children, and walks on the parapet at night is unlikely to create high results and a sustainable team, managers of almost all large corporations around the world are paying just as much attention to mental health as to physical health. Maybe these naive people are indeed investing half a trillion dollars so that employees can more efficiently scold their parents and school teachers? I've heard that silly version too. Cariloop is a platform where each employee is assigned a Care Coach with whom they can share or, in light cases, delegate the search for solutions to problems (although the platform indicates various types of problems, medical issues are most often mentioned in examples) not only for the user but also for their family members: children or even parents. A Care Coach can help navigate the healthcare system, provide educational support (about diseases, care methods), emotional support, and, if needed, legal or financial assistance. Special emphasis is placed on the fact that health coaches interact with each other and exchange information (how they do this without violating confidentiality, I will clarify later). I will not dwell in detail on the business efficiency claimed by the startup. It is clear that there are very beautiful infographics and analytics on the website about how much employee efficiency and, consequently, business efficiency improve when interacting with such a service solution. Check it if you want. I am skeptical about trying to measure the impact of employees' psychological health on business in numbers. However, evaluating the results of a business managed by psychologically unhealthy employees in numbers is much easier. We can start from there. *This is not an investment recommendation. **This is not a project the author has invested in (yep, it's required now). ***This is not a project I've been studying in detail for 10 years; it's just my subjective assessment of one of the most interesting projects that raised a round in the reporting period.

8

1 Comment

Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

39

3 Comments

I find it hard to believe that with millions of EVs entering the market and the proliferation of AI compute that PGE is actually going to have excess capacity in 2040 without any additional generation from 3rd parties. I am also curious if there are enough transmission lines and if PGE views that as someone else’s problem. Maybe they are planning on AI and ACTUAL figuring it all out! https://lnkd.in/gybsMmaw

10

5 Comments

Our view on the current venture capital markets. Curious to hear other investors' thoughts but I feel like seed stage valuation, at least in the gaming and entertainment sectors, has finally come down to the pre-covid level. Since February or March this year, we started seeing that the founders are willing to raise a $1-2m seed round at a $10m-ish valuation, not like $4-5m at $20-25m in 2022 and 2023. What are you guys seeing?

27

2 Comments

#fundingalert 💼Company: Lamini 💰Funding: $25Million ⚡Round: Seed and Series A 👥Investors: AMD VENTURES, LLC, Andrew Ng, Andrej Karpathy, Bernard Arnault, Pierre Lamond, Sarah Guo, Dylan Field, Lip-Bu Tan, Drew Houston, and Amplify Partners, Lamini, the Enterprise AI platform, makes it possible for software teams within enterprises to develop new LLM capabilities that reduce hallucinations on proprietary data, run their LLMs securely from cloud VPCs to on premise, and scale their infrastructure with model evaluatioins that prioritize ROI and business outcomes over hype. With the additional investment, the team will grow faster and pursue deeper technological optimisations, providing corporations with the large-scale strategic assistance they require. Sharon Zhou, PhD, Gregory Diamos, Saksham Consul, Tamir Kedmi, Sharon Zhou, PhD, Collin Weitzman, James W., Nina W. Read more - https://lnkd.in/gVsR3dRi To share your startup story write us on - contact@startuprise.io #Lamini #AI #hallucinations #infrastructure #corporations #optimisations #technological #funding #fundingnews #news #startupnews #startuprise

3

It was a real honor to interview Brad Burnham co-founder of Union Square Ventures and partner Placeholder on the history of hype cycles in technology and the value they bring to capital and market formation. Brad has had tremendous success across decades investing at the frontier - when it was the frontier/ before it was obvious. Crypto is still the underdog and his views on the opportunity and its nuances are prescient. Specifically it is both a technical and financial innovation which can lead to excess volatility and a unique muscle as it relates to being a venture manager. But the returns are real. And the innovation is real despite some of the the common narratives. No one debates the breakthrough applications in AI at M13 we have been very active. It is also very clear that incumbents have massive data and distribution advantages which can make it challenging to find the right pockets to invest. AI is on its own hype cycle and as always the best teams (typically with contrarian takes) win. Very exciting times to be a venture investor.

39

Arc Ventures is a single-member venture fund that serves as a limited partner (LP) to over 50 funds. They have approximately 65 portfolio companies in North America, Israel, and Europe, primarily invested at the pre-seed and seed stages. In this interview with Maulik Mehta, we explore Arc Ventures' early-stage investment strategy, discussing their unique investment thesis, criteria for supporting startups, and distinctive approach to nurturing early-stage companies. We delve into their emphasis on building strong relationships with founders and partners, their role beyond capital infusion in aiding startups, and their adept navigation of international investments. Additionally, we touch upon the post-investment engagement startups can expect, current trends capturing their attention, and the process startups undergo when seeking investment from Arc Ventures. Watch the full interview here: https://lnkd.in/eCxmc3Vn #startups #earlystageinvesting #venturecapital #vc

67

5 Comments

🌟Innovative VC Firm Overcomes Exits Drought with Secondary Sales🌟 ⛵Navigating a challenging landscape where exits are scarce, Santa Barbara Venture Partners (SBVP) has pioneered a novel approach to sustain its growth and attract investors for its second fund: secondary sales. Instead of waiting for traditional exits like IPOs or acquisitions, SBVP opted to sell shares of its portfolio companies, demonstrating its ability to generate returns for investors and stand out in a competitive market. 🎤According to Dan Engel, founder and managing partner of SBVP, these secondary transactions have been a game-changer, sparking investor interest and bolstering the firm's credibility. By leveraging its recent successes, including a lucrative stake in sports-betting company DraftKings Inc.' acquisition of digital lottery app Jackpocket, SBVP seized the opportunity to return profits to its limited partners (LPs) and pave the way for its second fund. 💡Engel highlighted the challenges faced by young VC firms in raising subsequent funds, particularly amid a downturn in exit activity and heightened investor scrutiny. With traditional exit routes becoming increasingly elusive, the pressure is on for firms to demonstrate tangible returns and establish a track record of success. ✨"For us, secondary sales have been a game-changer. They've helped us return profits to our LPs and attract investors for our second fund," said Dan Engel. 💰For SBVP, the decision to pursue secondary sales was driven by the need to provide liquidity to LPs and validate its investment thesis in the eyes of prospective investors. By strategically offloading portions of its holdings in high-performing portfolio companies like Bark Technologies and Rad AI, SBVP not only generated substantial returns but also bolstered investor confidence in its ability to deliver results. ⚠Despite the complexities and potential stigma associated with early share sales, Engel emphasized the importance of prioritizing investor returns and seizing opportunities to unlock value for stakeholders. With a focus on profitability and transparency, SBVP remains committed to its mission of delivering sustainable growth and maximizing returns for its LPs. 🔍 "Returning profits to our investors is our top priority. By strategically selling shares, we're proving our commitment to delivering results and driving value for our stakeholders," added Engel. As SBVP continues to explore secondary transactions and expand its investor base, the firm stands as a testament to innovation and resilience in the face of market challenges. 🚀 ✅ Looking to raise capital for your #fund and increase the international pool of your LP #investors?   🤝 Need warm #LP introductions?   📝 Selling #secondaries to increase liquidity?   🧐 Looking for co-investments?   ▶ G+QUANT's link for inquiries and fund decks: https://lnkd.in/gjC_EuTE #VCInnovation #SecondarySalesSuccess #InvestorReturns #ValueCreation 

2

Space tech-focused investment firm Seraphim Space Space launched its second VC fund, SSV II, to back early-stage startups in the global space tech market. The fund aims to build a portfolio of 30 startups, investing in seed and Series A stages. The latest fund's target size is larger than its predecessor's, which closed at £70M ($90M) in 2017. The fund's investment themes include AI applications for space data, in-orbit computing, space-enabled communications, and microgravity for science. Eutelsat is one of the limited partners that contributed to the latest fund. Seraphim Space aims to stand out with its track record, having returned three times the original investment from its first fund. The first fund's returns were driven by five exits, including Siemens' acquisition of UltraSOC and four IPOs of Arqit, AST SpaceMobile, Nightingale, and Spire Global. The British firm listed its growth fund Seraphim Space Investment Trust (SSIT) on the London Stock Exchange in July 2021, getting about £250M (~$300M) in gross proceeds. The fund's market cap touched an all-time low of £130M ($162M) in July 2023. The market for space tech is expected to grow significantly, with the World Economic Forum and McKinsey estimating it could be worth $1.8R by 2035.

8

1 Comment

Super helpful #Startup #Equity Calculator to determine the equity for early hires, thanks to Pear VC head of talent Matt Birnbaum! Thanks for sharing Pejman! 🙏🏼 You can read more here How to structure startup equity for early hires: https://lnkd.in/ggmpT5-Y Google Doc: https://lnkd.in/gjsvths6

13

Super helpful article and accompanying doc with a #Startup #Equity Calculator to determine the equity for early hires, thanks to Pear VC head of talent Matt Birnbaum! Thanks for sharing Pejman Nozad! 🙏🏼 You can read more here How to structure startup equity for early hires: https://lnkd.in/ggmpT5-Y Google Doc: https://lnkd.in/gjsvths6

30

1 Comment

Once you’re in it, you’re in it. #Startup #founders don’t just take financial risk - they invest years of their lives. For many, it’s absolutely worth it. To me, the first task is the most important one: to define your target and make absolutely sure it’s one worth that level of investment.

3

2 Comments

In our latest episode on the Practical Nerds podcast, Patric and I talk about our earned learnings on how founders (and other VCs) should choose the right (Co)Investors for their startup (Construction-tech or otherwise). Which of these do you agree with ? What did we miss ?

21

2 Comments

Dan Primack had some pointed criticism for #VC yesterday in his Axios Pro Rata newsletter (a daily must read IMO 😤). In short, the model doesn't work if it can't produce exits for LPs. Don't blame public markets (which are at all-time highs) for the lack of liquidity either. 📈 💸 Instead, this is a "liquidity drought of your making" where "...swinging for the fences on every pitch, rather than taking the single or double that's available" is the only way out when you invest at "sky high valuations." 😰 "A whopping 37% of "unicorns" are being held for at least nine years by VC funds, including 13% that are past the 12-year mark." 😳 ⌛ Is he right? Is VC at a dire inflection point? Or is Primack prematurely hitting the panic button? 🚨 https://lnkd.in/dts92pXr

2

iPad sales will get a nice boost in June and September. That tailwind will likely fade in 2025. Separately, Apple is moving faster to get new silicon in the market, a competitive advantage in AI. https://lnkd.in/g3mfdzMt

11

Despite the headwinds many software companies (even public ones) are facing today, there are still those that are delivering great results. Check out how the top decile companies in our Beyond Benchmarks survey are performing. And don't forget to review the full report for many more insights on the state of private software businesses.

22

I am excited to share that Antalpha Ventures has invested in the latest funding round of ChainML, a Web3-enabled AI platform. The round was led by industry-leading fund Hack VC, with participation from IOSG Ventures, HashKey Capital, LongHash Ventures, Foresight Ventures, HTX Ventures, Figment Capital, Inception Capital, Hypersphere Ventures, and Alumni Ventures, among others. ChainML unveiled its agentic base layer, TheoriqAI, a framework for autonomous AI agents to accomplish complex tasks. Theoriq leverages blockchain technology for agent registration, payment, and security. By partnering with resource providers, Theoriq aims to provide intuitive access to Web3 value drivers like DeFi, infrastructure, and memecoins. For more information, including quotes from Ron Bodkin, Founder and CEO of ChainML, please refer to Yogita K.'s The Block article below. #AI #Agents #Blockchain #Web3

18

3 Comments

RethinkX's recent publication on The Rise of Human Robots and The Future of Work is quite interesting. Tony Seba and his team including Adam Dorr and Bradd Libby, do an excellent job dissecting the emerging humanoid robot technology market. Here's a brief summary, with a more in-depth summary from Cern Basher, CFA, an expert on the future financial impacts of humanoid robots, linked in the comments below: The rise of humanoid robots is poised to disrupt human labor across industries, much like how automobiles disrupted horses. This convergence of technologies creating a "labor engine" will enable robots to eventually perform virtually any task better and cheaper than humans. Initially, robots will complement human workers by taking on simpler tasks. However, their capabilities will rapidly improve until they can do almost anything humans can by the 2040s. This disruption represents both a massive opportunity and challenge for society. As the marginal cost of robotic labor approaches zero, we can expect sweeping deflationary pressures and quality improvements across the economy. Labor supply will explode, uncoupled from population growth, giving nations with robust robotics industries a strategic advantage. While creating prosperity, this transition will destabilize conventional economics and the social contract around work. Thoughtful policymaking will be critical to avoid catastrophic unemployment or stifling innovation through misguided protectionism. Ultimately, humanoid robotics could lead to superabundance and liberation from labor. But achieving this will require rethinking economics, embracing the disruption responsibly, and prioritizing policies that protect people over obsolete jobs and industries. https://lnkd.in/gjNDVQe4 #humanoids #robotics #futurefrontier

3

1 Comment