Before typical summer weather returns late next week, Tropical Storm Beryl is set to drench parts of Central Texas
Friday’s afternoon cold front helped to bring Central Texas some decent (for July) weather Saturday and some of that will continue into Sunday as well, but all attention turns to Tropical Storm Beryl as it’s set to move ashore in Texas late Sunday into Monday. Although the worst of Beryl will stay well away from our area, a heavy rain and flooding threat will emerge Monday and Tuesday here locally, especially near and east of I-35. For the rest of Saturday afternoon, scattered thunderstorms west of I-35 and west of Highway 281 will hang on until shortly after sunset. From there, quiet weather is expected for the rest of the night and likely for the rest of the weekend. We’ll be on the lookout for a stray shower or storm to form Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, but rain chances have slipped to 10%. The extra sunshine Sunday should boost temperatures into the mid-90s with heat index values climbing as high as 106°. Sunday night should remain mostly quiet ahead of Beryl’s impacts starting here in Central Texas Monday and stretching into Tuesday.
While there are still some uncertainties surrounding Tropical Storm Beryl, namely in strength and exact landfall location, we’re growing more confident that we will see impacts locally despite a landfall a few hundred miles away. As of Saturday evening, the most likely landfall location looks to be near Port Lavaca. If Beryl makes landfall farther north along the coast, Central Texas will see less rainfall than currently forecast. However, if Beryl moves ashore near Port Lavaca or farther south along the coast, more Central Texans will be under threat of flooding. Monday morning should start out mostly dry, but we’ll start to feel Beryl’s impacts from near midday through at least sunset with continuing impacts for at least a part of our area stretching into the overnight hours Monday into Tuesday. The primary concern will be heavy and steady rainfall, especially so near and east of I-35, but we could also see a few quick spin-up tornadoes as well. In addition to the tornado threat, cities and towns near and east of I-35 will likely experience sustained winds between 20 and 30 MPH with occasional gusts near 50 MPH for much of Monday afternoon and evening hours. Although those level of winds are unlikely to cause widespread damage, it’s possible for sporadic power outages, downed tree limbs, and for loose items to be tossed about. There will be a tight rainfall gradient across the area too. For cities and towns near and west of Highway 281, our forecast currently calls for less than an inch of rain for many spots. For the I-35 corridor, including Bell, Coryell, McLennan, and Hill County, expect between 1.5″ of rain and 3″ of rain with isolated higher totals. The lion’s share of the rain will fall east of I-35 with 4″ to 6″+ of rain likely to fall, especially in Robertson, Leon, Limestone, and Freestone Counties. Rain from Beryl may linger into Tuesday morning, but the vast majority should be rain free by midday Tuesday.
After Tuesday, Central Texas’ next big weather maker is the traditional one; the traditional heat-dome ridge of high pressure that’ll be building across the western U.S. early in the week will gradually march eastward through the week and eventually settle in the Central U.S. The hottest temperatures will likely stay away, but we’ll see temperatures gradually climb in Beryl’s wake. Beryl should drop temperatures from the mid-80s Monday midday into the 70s for the rest of the day as rain falls, but we’ll return back to near 90° highs Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Expect mid-90s to return Thursday and Friday with upper 90s next weekend and beyond. Although we’re not forecasting triple-digits, Beryl’s heavy rain will lead to higher humidity than normal for this time of year and heat index values from Wednesday onward will likely max out above 100°.
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