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While the Fourth of July was fairly typical with warmth, humidity, and dry weather, we’re entering into an abnormally rainy stretch of weather beginning late today through at least the middle of next week. While the near-term rain chances are thanks to a stalling cold front, which means there will be some folks that miss out on rain, the rain chances next week are largely thanks to Hurricane Beryl and it’s remnants moving almost directly up the I-35 corridor! In fact, the rain that we could see from Beryl could bring us around HALF of the normal summer rain we see in just two days time! We’ll start with the near-term rain chances; temperatures today starting out in the 70s and low 80s will warm into the mid-to-upper 90s late today with heat index values as high as 108°. Temperatures stay warm today because the cold front that’ll push through won’t really arrive until the later afternoon time period. A low chance for rain returns starting as early as lunch time, but the highest rain chances, near 40%, will arrive late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Not everyone will see rain and rain totals should stay fairly limited, but some heavy downpours could bring isolated 1″ rainfall totals to wherever those downpours may occur. Rain chances should decrease a bit after sunset, however we’re keeping a 30% chance for rain around all night tonight as we cannot rule out a few scattered showers and non-severe storms at any point tonight as the arriving cold front stalls out and keeps the atmosphere unsettled.

This upcoming weekend could potentially be the most pleasant weekend of weather we see all summer long because rain chances and cooler temperatures will be around and we can’t say that every summer! Morning temperatures will drip a bit this weekend and we’ll start out the mornings in the mid-70s with afternoon highs warming into the low-90s on Saturday and mid-90s on Sunday. A few scattered showers and storms could pop-up at any time thanks to the stalled front overhead, but the best rain chances will likely be during the afternoon hours stretching into the early evening time period. The 40% chance of rain Saturday drops to 30% Sunday, but those rain chances come back up again to near 40% Monday as more scattered showers and storms push in during the afternoon hours. Believe it or not, high temperatures Monday in the upper 80s and low 90s will NOT be as cool as we get over the next week all thanks to Hurricane Beryl.

Hurricane Beryl is making landfall Friday morning across the Yucatan Peninsula and the next 24 hours will be vital in Beryl’s lifespan because the land interaction will disrupt the inner core of the system and likely cause it to weaken into a tropical storm before it re-emerges over the Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning. How disrupted the inner core is will determine how quickly Beryl regathers strength and where it’ll move ashore. As of Friday morning, forecast model data is honing in on a landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, but that is NOT guaranteed just yet. Typically, tropical systems that are disrupted by a land interaction could have a new inner core develop in a different spot than where the previous inner core was. This usually happens with weaker and less organized tropical systems but it could happen with Beryl. If the initial core dissipates and is replaced by another core, the track could shift a few dozen miles in a short period of time potentially changing the most likely landfall location.

All of that to say, it’s looking likely that Beryl’s emergence over the Gulf of Mexico Saturday will lead to about a day of reorganization before it strengthens back into a category 1 hurricane late Saturday into Sunday. Impacts from Beryl will start to be felt in South Texas Sunday, but landfall may not be until late Sunday night into Monday morning. Beryl is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it moves toward San Antonio with wind speeds dropping below tropical storm force some time on Monday. Beryl’s deep track into South Central Texas may allow the system to be picked up by an upper-level trough and pulled almost directly north across I-35 into Austin and eventually into Central Texas. There is still some time for the forecast to change, but our forecast now reflects Beryl’s likely trek up I-35 which means our rain chances will go up, temperatures will go down, and breezy winds will be around too. Beryl’s rain may start to arrive as early as Monday night, but we’re most likely to see rain Tuesday into at least early Wednesday. Beryl should be moving at a decent enough pace to keep us from seeing widespread flooding, but it’s path through Central Texas could bring us 2″ to 4″+ of rain with the highest totals potentially coming near and east of I-35. As of now, rain chances are near 70% Tuesday and 60% Wednesday with highs dipping into the low-to-mid 80s. Wind gusts will potentially climb as high as around 30 MPH with sustained winds 10 to 20 MPH throughout the day. While Beryl’s journey through Central Texas will mostly just bring us heavy rain, tropical systems have a lot of spin associated with them and there will be a low chance for a quick-spin up tornado next Tuesday and Wednesday. These tornadoes ARE NOT your typical spring tornadoes and are usually weaker and short-lived. After Beryl departs, likely on Wednesday, we’ll mostly dry out as we push into next weekend but it may take some time for temperatures to rebound (not like we’re complaining...) as highs may only return to the mid-90s Saturday and Sunday.