Beryl to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
Picture will become clearer in coming days, but some uncertainty remains
BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - After a brief period of weakening Thursday afternoon, Hurricane Beryl has reintensified to a Category 3 storm. This comes just hours before expected landfall on the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The storm is forecast to weaken significantly before it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning as a tropical storm, however Beryl has continued to outperform models in terms of its ability to rapidly intensify. For this reason, it continues to be a watch, wait, and see scenario for Texas and Mexico.
As of the Latest update from the National Hurricane Center:
| Location | Maximum Sustained Winds | Movement | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160 Miles ESE of Tulum, Mexico | 115 mph | WNW 20 mph | 962 mb |
What’s next?
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the coastlines of the Yucatan Peninsula as Hurricane Beryl churns west-northwestward through the Caribbean Sea. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected to impact the area Friday morning.
Texas impacts
The forecast “cone of uncertainty” now includes a significant portion of South Texas, with the northernmost boundary of the track encompassing a majority of the Brazos Valley. A ridge of high pressure will play a large role in what exactly Beryl does once it moves into the Gulf. This ridge is expected to weaken and shift eastward over the weekend. Ahead of ANY potential interaction with Beryl, this will open the door for a trough of low pressure to usher in showers and storms from North Texas to the coast, including our area.
What to watch
• The path Beryl takes now through Friday evening over Yucatan Peninsula
• Strength of Beryl as it enters the Gulf of Mexico
Both the intensity and track of Beryl will play a huge role in whether Texas and the Brazos Valley see impacts from this storm. A more northward track would give the storm more time over open, warm waters, and would likely result in a stronger storm making landfall along the Texas coast. A more southern track, would lead to a weaker storm making landfall in northern Mexico.
A southerly track is more favored, and would reduce impacts to Texas and the Brazos Valley. At the moment, we are expecting Beryl to make landfall anywhere between the northern Mexico coast to the Middle Texas Coast. This is still very large spread, so confidence in potential Texas impacts remain low. Once Beryl exits the Yucatan Peninsula, we will have a much clearer picture of potential local impacts.
Where do we go from here? Watch, wait, monitor trends, and remain calm. As of Thursday evening we still have no major concern for the Brazos Valley. Rainfall forecasts will largely depend on the above (strength and path of the storm).
As we get more information and confidence in the forecast, we will, of course, keep you updated. Regular updates can be found on air, online, and on your First Alert Weather app. If you want to track the storms along with the team you can pick up the 2024 First Alert Weather Team Hurricane Tracking Chart at any of our sponsors, or download it here!
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