All eyes on Beryl for potential Texas Impacts
Picture will become clearer in coming days, but some uncertainty remains
BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - As Beryl blows through the Caribbean, our attention now turns toward the Cayman Islands, then to the Yucatan peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico.
Now is the time to lock into the forecast because what happens with each step of this westward track will play a role in exactly where its ultimate landfall is, whether Mexico or Texas.
As of the Latest update from the National Hurricane Center:
| Location | Maximum Sustained Winds | Movement | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 Mi WSW of Grand Cayman | 115 mph | WNW 18 mph | 971 mb |
Beryl is still sweeping through the Caribbean, leaving a trail of destruction behind in Southern Jamaica. The storm is currently passing over the Cayman Islands as a Category 3 storm, with the Yucatan Peninsula still in its sights. The land interaction from Jamaica did not weaken Beryl quite as much as expected, even with unfavorable upper-level winds at play.
After this evening, our eyes turn the Gulf of Mexico and whether or not the storms path leads to Texas or Mexico.
What’s next?
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac. The warning has thus been extended to the East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Beryl continues its west-northwest path, with a well-established ridge over the southern US, this set up will continue to steer Beryl across the Caribbean over the Cayman Islands and then the Yucatan Peninsula. The forecast “cone of uncertainty” now includes a significant portion of Southern Texas, with the outermost part of the track about 50 miles away from the southern tip of the Brazos Valley.
Texas impacts
A ridge of high pressure will play a large role in what exactly Beryl does once it does moves into the Gulf. This ridge is expected to weaken as we approach the weekend, and move eastward. Ahead of ANY potential interaction with Beryl, this will open the door for a trough of low pressure to usher in showers and storms from North Texas to the coast, including our area.
From there, additional moisture from Beryl, or rain bands from the storm itself, could come into the state right as the holiday weekend is ending and we start next week. Between land interaction, track, and strength of Beryl, it is too early to know specific impacts, but at least some appear more likely, with rough surf/waves expected along the coast.
What to watch
• The path Beryl takes now through Friday evening over Yucatan Peninsula
• Strength of Beryl as it enters the Gulf of Mexico
Both the intensity and movement of Beryl will play a huge role in whether Texas and the Brazos Valley see impacts from this storm. A more northward track, combined with a stronger Beryl, would mean more rain and wind locally. Should Beryl not make direct landfall over the Yucatan (more northward movement), or only skirt the northern tip of the peninsula, that would likely result in less weakening of the storm, bringing a greater concern for a Texas hurricane landfall. While this is in the realm of possibilities, it appears to be the less likely scenario as of right now.
A southerly track is more favored, and would likely reduce impacts and overall strength of the storm. At the moment, we are expecting Beryl to make landfall anywhere between the northern Mexico coast to the Middle Texas Coast. This is still very large spread, so confidence in potential Texas impacts remain low, come the end of the week, however, forecasts may start to become more clear.
To re-iterate, the picture will become steadily more clear in the coming days, but we will have a much better idea on where this storm will go Friday evening into Saturday.
Where do we go from here? Watch, wait, monitor trends, and remain calm. As of Thursday morning we still have no major concern for the Brazos Valley. Rainfall forecasts will largely depend on the above (strength and path of the storm).
As we get more information and confidence in the forecast, we will, of course, keep you updated. Regular updates can be found on air, online, and on your First Alert Weather app. If you want to track the storms along with the team you can pick up the 2024 First Alert Weather Team Hurricane Tracking Chart at any of our sponsors, or download it here!
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