Share on LinkedIn

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - After a bit of a break from talking about rain and storms, we are right back to it as we move toward the unofficial start of summer. While not to the degree of strength and intensity we saw last week, a few stronger and more significant storms will be possible for portions of the Brazos Valley.

WEDNESDAY

The majority of Wednesday will be much like Tuesday - stuffy, humid, hot, and hazy! High temperatures will climb to the lower 90s yet again, with heat index values anywhere from 100°-105° in the peak heating hours of the afternoon. We turn from that summer-like heat to spring-like storms heading into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has the northern half of the area outlined in a 2 out of 5 risk for strong to severe storms, decreasing to a 1 out of 5 as you head south, and the very northern reaches of Milam, Robertson, Leon, and Houston Counties included in a 3 out of 5 potential. While the risk is much higher north of the Brazos Valley, it will be an evening to watch, wait, and see how storms behave as they fall south.

We're keeping eyes on the rain chance later this evening as a couple showers may become severe. Another batch of showers arrives tomorrow around lunchtime, and once we push those out we will build in even more heat through this holiday weekend. Stevie has the latest! pic.twitter.com/aavroruv5E
— KBTX Weather (@KBTXWeather) May 22, 2024

A cold front will move through the state, acting as the catalyst for storm development north of the Brazos Valley. Storms igniting along that boundary will have the potential to create storms with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado concern. As those individual cells grow, they eventually create a cluster/broken line that will move southeast throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. The latest data Wednesday morning shows these storms holding together right until they move into our northernmost counties. However, even if these storms are falling apart they could still push out some powerful wind gusts as they die out.

The storm chance is not a widespread concern across the entire area, but a few will need to... — The storm chance is not a widespread concern across the entire area, but a few will need to watch for an isolated significant storm.(KBTX)

Winds will be the main concern as this line approaches, but some smaller, pocket-change-sized hail is not out of the question and neither is a very brief spin up of a tornado. Now let’s talk timing, we could see some activity as early as the dinnertime hour but most likely if we are able to pick up on any rain and storms, it will hold off until later in the evening. Morning data suggests we wait until closer to 10 pm, with activity potentially lingering until around 2 am at the latest.

GET THE LATEST FORECAST, LIVE RADAR, AND MORE ON THE KBTX WEATHER APP

THURSDAY

As Wednesday’s system moves east, an additional round of development will be possible through Thursday afternoon. This activity will be mainly focused across the northeastern reaches of the Brazos Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Robertson, Leon, Houston, Trinity, and Milam counties in a 1 out of 5 risk, with the bullseye for storm potential toward the ArkLaTex region.

The northern portions of the Brazos Valley are clipped by the severe threat once again... — The northern portions of the Brazos Valley are clipped by the severe threat once again Thursday afternoon.(KBTX)

Timing for this round looks to be around 12 pm- 2 pm, with the main impacts being gusty winds and small hail in the strongest storms. Most of us on Thursday will likely stay rain-free.

REST OF THE WEEK

While there is the slightest chance for a stray shower/storm Friday night and into Saturday, confidence is very low in that coming to fruition. We’ll keep you updated as data continues to file in. Unfortunately, while the rain chances look to dry up we are keeping the moisture around. If we can’t rain it out, it is just going to stick around and crank up the heat indices area wide! Sunday and Memorial Day on Monday look to be the warmest days of the year so far, with highs in the upper 90s and heat index values climbing closer to 108°-110°. We could see our first heat advisories of the season issued for the unofficial kick-off to summer! So stay tuned and stay cool!