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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Thursday is a First Alert Weather Day, as our next round of rain and thunderstorms arrive to the Brazos Valley. While we have had about 48 hours to dry out, soils across the Brazos Valley are extremely waterlogged, and additional rainfall will just compound our current flooding concerns.

Storms are still set to roll in this afternoon, as early as about 2 pm for our northernmost counties. Model data is still trying to swing a cluster of storms through after the initial line, in the overnight hours. Likely these would not be *as* strong, but still impactful. pic.twitter.com/kwuYSQf5JM
— Kayleigh Thomas (@KBTXKayleigh) May 16, 2024

A strong trough of low pressure will pop up rain and thunderstorms to our north and west by Thursday afternoon. Those storms will then move south and eastward into the Brazos Valley as early as the PM rush hour. Another round is possible overnight into Friday. After Friday morning rain chances generally look to wind down as we head into the weekend.

Two different outlooks issued by NOAA have highlighted the area for this disruptive weather potential. Of most concern is the Weather Prediction Center’s “Excessive Rainfall Outlook” which highlights most of the area in a 3 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall. For areas along and east of I-45, they have increased the risk to its highest level, 4 out of 4 meaning dangerous and potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible. These areas have taken the brunt of the rainfall over the last couple of weeks, with locations like Huntsville picking up over a foot of rainfall in the first half of the month of May. The anticipated heavy rainfall has also prompted the issuance of a flood watch for the majority of the Brazos Valley, only excluding Lee County.

Widespread rain and storms are expected that could lead to additional flooding into early Friday.(KBTX)

Now the majority of the Brazos Valley is outlined in the 3/4 Excessive Rainfall category, while areas along and east of I-45 have been bumped up to the highest risk. Dangerous flash flooding is possible through the afternoon.
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around. https://t.co/G3QyvNiHMS pic.twitter.com/7DhRnNwqxk
— Kayleigh Thomas (@KBTXKayleigh) May 16, 2024

In addition to the flooding concerns, the Brazos Valley is also outlined in a potential for scattered strong to severe storms. The entire area is included in the agency’s 3 out of 5 risk for those more significant storms. The main threat is straight-line wind gusts along the leading edge. Data Thursday morning suggests wind gusts 50mph or greater in the strongest segments of the line. Some hail will be possible as well, mainly pocket-change sized but a few larger pockets could fall. The larger hail risk is out west, closer to Abilene and Midland. The lowest concern is tornadoes, but an isolated spin-up cannot be ruled out, especially with the initial round of storms through the afternoon.