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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Thursday brings the Brazos Valley one last shot at seeing severe weather for the week. The caveat with the storms today will be the cap and its ability to hold. We have all the ingredients needed to produce strong storms, it’s just a matter of if we can get them to work together.

SETUP:

Similar to what we have seen the past few stormy nights, we will have our eyes out west and up north for early development that tries to tumble our way through the evening. We have a pretty tight lid on the atmosphere, and the lifting mechanism we need to fire storms off will be situated well to our west when we reach peak instability this afternoon/evening. That is why the storm chance is possible, but not promised. Any storm that does get up and going will likely be strong, so with that in mind, The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the northern half of the area in a level 3 out of 5 risk, while the southern half is held at a level 2 out of 5 risk.

IMPACTS:

Almost the entire Brazos Valley is labeled under a “hatched”, or elevated concern, for large hail. All severe hazards will be possible this evening, however hail will be the primary concern in earlier storms, while damaging straight line winds will be more of a concern in the later evening hours. The tornado threat is low, however, it cannot be completely ruled out.

TIMING:

Storms will start to pop up to our north and west through the afternoon, but things should stay quiet here locally until the evening. As of Thursday morning, high resolution model data has isolated strong cells pushing into our northern counties as early as 7:00pm. General storm motion will be to the southeast, with storms moving through the BCS area around 9:00, and exiting our southern counties by midnight. If these storms do make it to the Brazos Valley, they will not be widespread in nature, but strong isolated cells will be enough to make for a rowdy night for some.

A weak cold front will push through the Brazos Valley late Thursday evening, wicking away a lot of the rain-making moisture, and leaving us with some cooler air for the weekend. Storms chances will wind down after frontal passage, and will remain low until Sunday, when we expect widespread rain to soak the area.