Monitoring Sunday storm chance

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Last week it was Saturday that brought widespread rain and storms to the Brazos Valley, this week it is Sunday that holds stormy potential. Scattered storm activity is anticipated through the afternoon and evening, with a few stronger to severe storms possible.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS:

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the storm potential for the Brazos Valley. The majority of the area is in a 2 out of 5 risk for significant storms. With the early morning upgrade, the agency has increased the risk for areas along and east of the I-45 corridor to a 3 out of 5 potential. While not every storm we see pop up will reach severe criteria, the environment is conducive for storm development through the evening hours.

TIMING: While some isolated activity is possible through mid-morning, the main window that needs to be monitored is from 2 pm- 12 am

POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Gusty winds 40-60mph will be possible in a more widespread fashion, large hail upwards of quarter-sized, and because these storms will be rotating tornadoes will be a concern in the strongest of storms. Because our grounds are still saturated from last Saturday’s rain, it will not take much to see areas of localized flooding and ponding. A FLOOD WATCH has been issued for Milam, Robertson, and Lee Counties through 7 pm Sunday night.

The Storm Prediction Center has included a hatched potential in this outlook for both the tornado and hail concern. The best environment for the more significant tornado threat is mainly to the east of the Brazos Valley, but does include a portion of Houston County. In their forecast discussion this is their thinking of the current risk along the line.

LET’S TIME IT OUT:

Our rain chance locally highly depends on the fate of storms out west that get up and going Saturday night. For areas like Milam and Lee Counties, you could wake up to some of this activity rolling in. Latest model data Saturday evening supports that this round will then sputter out as it approaches the Brazos Valley. Sunday afternoon is when we anticipate activity to become a touch more widespread and significant. That boundary of morning storms will still be situated across the area by afternoon, this will act as a catalyst for storm redevelopment.

The general model consensus is after lunchtime, more isolated storm activity will get up and going turning more scattered in nature into the afternoon. As storms congeal together, the coverage will increase especially across our eastern and southeastern counties after about 5 pm. Those clusters of storms will push to the southeast through the evening, eventually clearing the Brazos Valley by early Monday morning.

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