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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Saturday plans? Most of them should be in good shape, especially those earlier in the day. Evening plans may need to be flexible as widespread rain takes shape behind our latest cold front.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS

Almost the entire Brazos Valley is included in a 1 out of 5 “isolated” risk for strong to severe storms on Saturday. While the severe threat is low, small hail, gusty winds, and noisy storms remain possible.

While the severe risk is low, and isolated significant storm will be possible.(KBTX)

TIMING: 4 pm to 11 pm Saturday
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Up to quarter-sized hail in the strongest storms and wind gusts 40-50+ mph especially behind the leading edge of the cold front. With training rain and thunderstorms that could bring heavy rainfall at times, localized flooding will be possible through the later evening hours.

RAIN CHANCE: LET’S TIME IT OUT

Saturday morning plans? Keep ‘em! Most activities should be able to get up, going, and finished up as the first half of the day looks to bring benign weather to the Brazos Valley. The general model consensus as of Friday night, is a gloomy, but mostly dry, start to Saturday that ends stormy and soggy for most. Here is how the current timeline seems to play out:

While the day starts gloomy and benign, widespread rain and storms will fill in by the evening.(KBTX)

Through Mid-Morning: Clouds greet us when we start the day and stick with us for the majority. Some of those may try and drop a few bits of light rain/mist/drizzle from time to time, but the general thinking is that most of us stay dry.
Midday: By lunchtime, some of us may be able to find a few pockets of blue sky and sunshine. A bit of a double-edged sword for us. It would be nice to get a break from the clouds, but that could help build a bit of storm potential by later in the evening.
Mid-Afternoon: Quickly after lunchtime, we will watch for isolated storms to pop up from the northwest and start to become more scattered in nature as they move to the southeast.
Early Evening: As the stalled cold front sags to the south, more widespread rain moves in behind. While these storms will be elevated, they will carry the potential for pockets of pocket-change-sized hail. Those will mainly situate themselves along the leading edge, as will some very gusty winds.
Late Evening - Saturday Night: From 7pm-11pm, the front will push its way through the Brazos Valley. As it does, a lot of surface-based storm fuel will be swiped away. However, behind the leading edge of the front wind gusts 40-50mph will be possible. Some small hail could be found in sections as well, but will likely be sub-severe in nature. Rain filling in behind this line will be heavy at times and could lead to some localized flooding concerns, especially in areas that picked up hefty rain totals with last week’s storms.

Here is a look at the latest high resolution forecast data for what Saturday evening/overnight could look like.

MONITORING FOR LOW-LYING FLOODING POTENTIAL

As rain fills in behind the initial line of storms, some areas will receive repeated rounds of heavy rain. Latest data has centered the heaviest rain over the central and southern reaches of the Brazos Valley. This has warranted a FLOOD WATCH to be issued across our central and southern counties through 4am Sunday morning. Widespread totals of 1″-2″ are now anticipated with localized totals closer to 3.0″-4.0″+ are possible with areas that receive repeated rounds.

Rainfall Accumulation Forecast - April 20(kbtx)

WHAT COMES AFTER THAT?

Cooler and drier air moves in to close out the weekend. Sunday morning starts in the mid to lower 50s with plenty of cloud cover and an isolated lingering shower or two. Sunday afternoon will be a struggle for most of the Brazos Valley to climb out of the 60s, with breezy northeast winds likely making you reach for at least a light long sleeve.