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BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - The entire Brazos Valley is included in the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Friday. The southern stretches of the area are held at a level 2 out of 5 risk, while the central and eastern portions are at a level 1 out of 5. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms, but the primary concerns will be large hail, gusting winds, and heavy rainfall.

SETUP:

An area of surface low pressure over western Tennessee Friday morning will continue its track to the east throughout the day, dragging a cold front along with it. This cold front is forecast to stall just before reaching the Brazos Valley. Simultaneously, a deep area of low pressure is forecast to setup over southern California. Disturbances in the mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the California low will attempt to work across southeast Texas throughout the day. The cap that has been working to keep the atmosphere stable has the potential to erode early Friday morning, which when coupled with abundant atmospheric moisture, and our proximity to a stalled frontal boundary, could lead to strong or even severe storms.

Friday Afternoon PinPoint Forecast:
Another round of rain and rumbles is forecast to move through the Brazos Valley this evening. All severe hazards are possible, but the primary concerns are hail, high winds, and heavy rainfall. Here's what you need to know: pic.twitter.com/oMIPloiIO9
— Berkeley Taylor (@KBTXBerkeley) March 15, 2024

IMPACTS AND TIMING:

The early morning rain and rumbles got started around 5:00am for the western portions of the Brazos Valley. These storms were very electric, recording thousands of strikes within their short duration. PinPoint radar picked up on some hail signatures within this system, but everything managed to stay sub-severe. We are seeing a general clearing trend of both rain and clouds, which could be a problem for the evening storms.

The evening storm concern takes our attention further south. Current model data brings isolated storms through Washington and Waller Counties around 6:00pm, and continues scattering them all across our southern counties through 9:00pm. A larger cluster of storms starts to pulse up around 10:00pm for our western counties, stretching from Lee to Brazos. This round is forecast to continue into the overnight, traversing across almost the entirety of the Brazos Valley. Right now, these look to be the strongest storms, with all severe impacts possible.

With several rounds of rain forecast to move through on Friday, the entirety of the Brazos Valley has been marked for a scattered risk for excessive rainfall. Minor flooding and street ponding are the primary concerns here. These storms could make for a messy commute both to and from work, so take it slow on the roads!

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Friday - March 14(kbtx)

LOOKING AHEAD:

After a messy, stormy Friday, Saturday looks to bring more rain through the Brazos Valley. The storm risk is much lower, however widespread heavy rainfall is still expected. Flooding will continue to be a concern all throughout the weekend. If you’ve got St. Patrick’s Day plans that take you outside, it may be a little soggy, but it’s not looking to be a complete washout on Sunday. This is definitely a good weekend to keep your rain gear and your PinPoint Weather App handy!