Strong to Severe Storms Possible Thursday and Friday

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - A deep area of surface low pressure is forecast to track over the border of Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri early Thursday morning, resulting in strong to severe storms as far north as Illinois, and as far south as the Brazos Valley. The greatest threat for severe weather on Thursday is expected to stay well to our north, along the border of Oklahoma and Arkansas. With that being said, the Brazos Valley is still included in the Storm Prediction Center’s Outlook for Thursday’s storms.

SET UP:

As the aforementioned low pressure tracks to the east overhead, it will drape a cold front across the Lone Star State. The cold front forecast is a tricky one, as models are not in agreement with exactly when/if it will stall. Some models have the front stalling just before reaching the Brazos Valley, while others take it all the way to the coast. Regardless, disturbances will work off the leading edge of that frontal boundary, serving as lifting mechanisms to help storms get up and going. As far a moisture is concerned, we have plenty of it. Breezy southerly winds continue to advect Gulf moisture into the Brazos Valley in the days leading up to Thursday. What may inhibit these storms from developing is the lack of instability. There is a pretty tight lid on the lower-levels of the atmosphere, and unless we break through it, storm development will be difficult.

IMPACTS:

While the severe risk is not overwhelming, if storms are able to develop, they will be capable of producing pocket change size hail and strong winds gusting upwards of 40 mph. We could see some quick downpours, but flooding is not a concern. There is also a non-zero chance for tornadoes, though the risk is very low.

WHEN AND WHERE:

Light, scattered rain is forecast to move through in the morning hours on Thursday, with the storm chance becoming elevated after midday. This does not look to be a widespread severe event, and if we do see strong or even severe storms move through the Brazos Valley, they will be isolated, and likely to the our northeastern counties. Friday’s potential looks to favor the eastern reaches of the Brazos Valley, where the Storm Prediction Center has its focus, but it looks like more of us see rain on Friday than do on Thursday.

FRIDAY:

Friday looks to be a more promising day for widespread, potentially heavy rainfall. As far as storms are concerned however, there are still quite a few details to iron out. A deep area of low pressure is forecast to setup over southern California Friday morning. Disturbances in the mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with this low pressure will attempt to work across southeast Texas throughout the day as our next cold front swings through. We will still have plenty of moisture to tap into, and with our proximity to a stalled frontal boundary, the environment could be conducive to producing strong or even severe storms. However, similar to Thursday, we will still need to overcome the cap in order for storms to fire off.

New data sets up two possible scenarios for Friday. The first of which brings in storms right around sunrise, and holds a scattered chance for rain and rumbles through the afternoon. If this is the outcome, all modes of severe weather will need to be monitored for - pocket change sized hail, gusty winds, and a low tornado concern. However, another high-resolution model brings a few showers our way by midmorning but the *main* rain and storm risk through in the afternoon through the evening. If this is the outcome, while all modes of severe will be possible, it is more of a straight line wind concern as the line moves in.

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