From the Ground Up: Making sense of beef cattle supply trends

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Texas A&M Extension economist David Anderson, sees supply trends in the beef cattle industry that could have ripple effects for years.

“In about two weeks,” he said, “USDA is going to release the Cattle Inventory Report. My expectation is that we’re going to have 2% to 3% fewer beef cows in 2024 than in 2023.”

He expects this will translate into fewer offspring for the year, eventually leading to a decrease in beef supply.

“Two percent to 3% fewer beef cows means 2% to 3% fewer calves born this spring and through 2024. So, our whole beef supply is going to be declining.”

If that decline happens, Anderson says you’ll feel those consequences in your wallet.

“From a supply standpoint, the pressure’s on for higher prices,” Anderson said. “Because we’re going to produce less. And, so, what we’re going to find out – the biggest wildcard – is consumer demand. We’re going to test their wallets. Let’s put it that way!”

As far as Anderson is concerned, he thinks the products are worth the price.

“We produce the safest, most abundant food supply in the world,” he said. “And the least expensive! Americans spend the smallest amount of income on food than anywhere else in the world. And so, we’re pretty blessed by that, as consumers, to have such a productive agriculture.”

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