Humza Yousaf rides high despite misstep on Scottish independence strategy

Good morning . . . from London. Usually I would be in Aberdeen for the Scottish National party’s conference, but I’m at the FT’s Africa Summit this evening and tomorrow instead. Fortunately, our man in Scotland, Lukanyo Mnyanda, is at the SNP conference and will be taking the helm of Inside Politics on Wednesday.

For now, here are some thoughts on Humza Yousaf and the SNP’s political position more broadly.

Strength in compassion

An inevitable part of this job is saying things that are true but nonetheless bad taste. Here’s an example: a terrorist attack that was worse, in per capita terms, than 9/11, gave Keir Starmer the perfect opportunity to demonstrate how much he has changed the Labour party.

Here’s another: Israel’s response to Hamas’s attack, which has seen the Gaza Strip’s supplies of electricity, food and fuel cut off, and thousands killed in a bombing campaign, is a boost to Humza Yousaf. His response both to the attack on Israel and everything that has followed has lifted his stature, drawing praise from across the political spectrum. This has meant that this year’s SNP conference, however difficult it may be for the SNP as a whole, is not going to see questions raised about Yousaf’s leadership. That his own in-laws are in Gaza has only added to the sincerity of his words on the Israel-Hamas war.

So that’s the big picture: whatever happens this week at the SNP conference, Yousaf’s own position as leader is secure — at least until after the general election.

That is good news for Yousaf, because I think he has also made a big, big mistake this week, by saying the SNP would claim a “mandate” for a new vote on independence if it were to win a majority of Scottish seats at the next general election. That stance has been endorsed by the SNP conference.

This is the same strategy the SNP opted for in 2017 and it did not go well: the party lost seats and was the victim of tactical voting by both unionist voters and the vital “pro-independence but also pro not starting all that again” bloc of voters. I don’t think this strategy will play out any better for the SNP at the next election and in normal circumstances I would expect an awful lot of discontent against Yousaf.

These aren’t normal circumstances. So, even if the next election goes badly, I think we can be pretty certain that the SNP leader will lead his party not just into the general election but the Scottish parliamentary elections as well.

Now try this

My partner is poorly so this weekend we stayed home and binge-watched the new season of Only Murders in the Building on Disney+. It isn’t quite as good as previous seasons but it is good, heartwarming fun with a terrific central cast (and Meryl Streep is a marvellous addition this year).

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