Rishi Sunak faces by-elections test as MPs return to Westminster

Rishi Sunak this week faces two by-elections in once-safe Conservative seats, crucial tests of the political mood in Britain after a party conference season which he hoped would reset his premiership.

His immediate focus is the crisis in the Middle East: the prime minister has so far given a full-throated defence of Israel’s right to defend itself and he will brief MPs on Monday. On Sunday he met King Abdullah of Jordan to discuss regional stability.

But the domestic Tory focus is on Tamworth in the West Midlands and the seat of Mid Bedfordshire, 50 miles north of London, where the success of Sunak’s conference “relaunch” is about to be tested.

Labour strategists claim that both seats are “winnable but tough”, noting that overturning a 19,634 Tory majority in Tamworth and 24,664 in Mid Beds would normally be considered an almost impossible feat.

For Sunak, a victory in either seat on Thursday would provide some relief and may support his claim that the Tories can provide the “change” that he concedes the electorate is seeking.

MPs return to Westminster on Monday after a “conference recess” spanning almost a month, with little evidence that Sunak has successfully changed the political mood in the meantime.

A YouGov poll carried out in early October after the Tory conference in Manchester found that Labour had maintained a 21-point lead over the Conservatives, although Sunak’s personal ratings improved marginally.

The poll found that 25 per cent of voters thought he would make the best prime minister — up three points — compared with 34 per cent who thought that Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer would be a better premier.

In the immediate aftermath of the Labour conference last week, a separate Opinium poll for the Observer on Sunday put Labour’s lead at 16 points — up two points on the previous week — while Starmer’s net approval rating had jumped by nine points.

Sunak’s conference speech, which mentioned the word “change” 30 times, included his “tough” decision to axe the northern leg of the HS2 high-speed rail line to Manchester, with £36bn allocated to other transport projects.

That decision will be scrutinised by MPs on Monday when Mark Harper, transport secretary, explains the new strategy, with Labour claiming that up to 150,000 future jobs would be lost as a result of the axing of the northern part of HS2.

Louise Haigh, shadow transport secretary, insisted the cancellation of HS2’s northern leg was “the exact opposite of the levelling up we were promised” and a sign of “chaos” in Sunak’s government.

The Department for Transport said: “Work is already well under way on the HS2 project from Birmingham to London Euston, continuing to support over 29,000 jobs.

“Every penny that would have been spent extending HS2 will be reinvested into local infrastructure and transport schemes across the country.”

The prime minister’s calculation is that the HS2 decision, along with his promises to phase in a smoking ban and to reform post-16 education, show that he is offering the country a change of direction.

Voters in Tamworth and Mid Beds will be the first to record their verdict on Sunak’s new approach and on whether Starmer — who enjoyed a disciplined party conference in Liverpool — is seen to be leading a government-in-waiting.

Bookmakers make Labour odds-on favourites to win in Tamworth, a seat previously held by ex-deputy chief whip Chris Pincher, who resigned in disgrace over a groping scandal.

The situation in Mid Beds, a seat vacated by former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries after she failed to win a peerage, is a more complicated three-horse race, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats vying to unseat the Tories.

Although polls in the constituency suggest the Tory vote has collapsed, Sunak will hope that the party can come through the middle and cling on, offering his party a much-needed morale boost.

But for the foreseeable future, the British political scene looks set to be dominated by the fallout of the unfolding war in Gaza, with Sunak aligning himself strongly with Israel and its right to self-defence.

In a statement issued on Saturday, Sunak did not mention the people of Gaza. “To the people of Israel, I say Britain is with you,” he said. “What took place was an act of pure evil and Israel has every right to defend itself.”

Oliver Dowden, deputy prime minister, also struck a tough line, suggesting in the Daily Telegraph that the government would back Israel as it took its fight against Hamas deep into civilian areas.

“Our support towards Israel must not dissipate when the reality of fighting an enemy that hides in tunnels and among civilian homes, schools and hospitals takes shape,” he said.

While Sunak and his ministers — notably foreign secretary James Cleverly — have also spoken of the need to protect civilian lives, Starmer has more explicitly talked about the impact of the conflict on Palestinians and on the risk of Islamophobia flaring up as well as antisemitism.

However Starmer, who has sought to purge antisemitism from Labour after the Jeremy Corbyn years, has also given full backing to Israel and is keenly aware of the political risks of members of his party appearing to back the Palestinians once the expected ground offensive by Israeli forces gets under way.

Labour MPs and councillors have been urged by the leadership not to take part in protests relating to the war.

David Lammy, shadow foreign secretary, told the BBC: “If you’re a Labour MP, you should always be careful whom you share platforms with at this moment, and you should be very careful that you do nothing to drive division in our communities.”