Greens freshen air of stale German politics

The anointment of Annalena Baerbock as the first ever chancellor-candidate for Germany’s Greens shows the party’s ambitions to shake up a staid political scene in September’s general election. The Greens’ political ascendancy looks unstoppable. No governing coalition now seems plausible without them whereas Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, long the natural party of government, could conceivably be consigned to opposition. After years of stultifying grand coalition, political flux can only be a good thing. It gives voters more choice and a welcome chance to challenge the outdated political orthodoxies of the Merkel era when she bows out from office later this year.

The choice of Baerbock shows moderates are firmly in control of her party, a once raucous environmental protest movement riven between radicals and pragmatists. Her appointment was smooth and consensual. The Greens showed a discipline that was once the trademark of German conservatives. At the very same time, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party were fighting over who should lead them into the election. On Tuesday Markus Söder, the Bavarian leader, abandoned his attempt to dislodge Armin Laschet, the uninspiring CDU party boss, as the centre-right’s standard-bearer. But with only five months to polling day, the party seems increasingly torn over the Merkel succession. A week of infighting has exposed deep misgivings among MPs and the conservative grassroots over Laschet’s candidacy.

The Greens, which one poll on Tuesday put seven percentage points ahead of the centre-right, can take votes from both the CDU and the Social Democrats, stuck in a distant third place. The Greens’ pitch as a party of renewal versus the status-quo CDU is likely to resonate with voters: Laschet, a supporter of Merkel’s cautious centre-ground politics, lacks the broad public appeal of the outgoing chancellor. Baerbock, aged 40, stands out against her older male rivals.

She is an adroit parliamentarian who masters policy detail but she has never held executive office. When the initial excitement over her candidacy fades, her lack of government experience could become a campaign liability. A path to the chancellery is perhaps less likely than a strong second place, and thus a coalition with the CDU. But a coalition of Greens with the SPD and pro-business Free Democrats as an alternative to one of the centre-left and far-left will blunt one of Laschet’s strongest arguments: that voting for the Greens would allow former communists into power via the back door.

For the moment, the Greens have the political momentum. And they are likely to reshape German public policy in profound ways, at least relative to the cautious incrementalism of the Merkel era. The CDU with the SPD in tow have provided the stability and prosperity that many Germans appear to crave. But the last grand coalition, in particular, has done too little to prepare the country for the technological, economic and geopolitical disruption it confronts. The Greens can now challenge orthodoxies that have been protected, to differing degrees, by the centre-right and centre-left: a lack of ambition on the energy transition; a mercantilist softness in the face of authoritarian China and Russia; fiscal rules that have starved Germany of public investment and crimped domestic demand; and lack of faith in European integration and eurozone risk-sharing.

Some Green doctrines are concerning, especially wealth-punishing tax policies and a reluctance to spend on defence. But the party is bringing fresh air to German politics. More of the same is the last thing Germany needs.

Letter in response to this article:

Defining centre ground of German politics is tricky / From Rainer Winters, Editor, Analogo.de, Kiel, Germany