US inflation falls to 3% in June

US inflation fell faster than forecast to 3 per cent in June, leading investors to increase bets on interest rate cuts and pushing yields on Treasuries lower.

In an encouraging sign for the Federal Reserve as it debates how quickly to cut rates from their 23-year high, the year-on-year rise in consumer prices came below May’s rate of 3.3 per cent.

It was also less than economists’ expectations, compiled by Bloomberg, of 3.1 per cent and was the first time inflation had hit 3 per cent since June 2023.

The dollar fell 0.6 per cent against a basket of currencies after the Bureau of Labor Statistics figures were published.

Treasury yields dropped as traders increased their bets on two interest rate cuts this year and President Joe Biden said the figures showed the US was “making significant progress fighting inflation”.

According to LSEG data, the likelihood of a September cut rose to 100 per cent in the aftermath of the CPI data, compared with 72 per cent beforehand.

The inflation figures come as the Fed looks for further evidence that price pressures are easing in the world’s largest economy. Fed chair Jay Powell said this week the central bank needed “more good data” before it could confidently lower interest rates.

“This is, without too many caveats, an unambiguously good print,” said Andy Schneider, senior US economist at BNP Paribas. “If you’re the Fed, this is exactly what you wanted to see.”

Despite market expectations earlier this year of as many as seven interest rate cuts in 2024, the Fed has so far kept its benchmark rate at a range of 5.25-5.5 per cent, the highest since 2001.

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After Thursday’s figures were published, yields on two-year US Treasuries, which track interest rate expectations and move inversely to prices, fell to a four-month low. The two-year yield held on to that decline over the course of the day, down 0.12 percentage points at 4.51 per cent.

Stocks fell as investors moved out of big tech stocks, with the S&P 500 ending the day down 0.9 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite closing nearly 2 per cent lower.

The BLS data also showed that consumer prices fell by 0.1 per cent on a monthly basis, compared with economists’ expectations of a 0.1 per cent increase. It was first time since 2020 that monthly consumer prices had fallen.

Petrol prices fell 3.8 per cent during the month, while a rise in housing-related costs slowed. Both factors contributed to the overall fall in inflation.

Arguing that housing costs had turned a corner, Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights said he now expected inflation to be “meaningfully slower”.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3 per cent on an annual basis, less than the expected 3.4 per cent.

The latest data reinforces Powell’s message to US lawmakers this week that the US economy is no longer “overheated”, with the labour market showing more signs of cooling.

Powell stressed that officials would seek to avoid squeezing the economy too much by keeping interest rates too high for too long.

He added that Fed rate decisions would be made on a “meeting by meeting” basis.

“Alongside recent employment data it looks like a cut by September is close to certain,” said Matthew Raskin, US head of rates research at Deutsche Bank. He added that the possibility of a July cut should also “be at least be on the table”.

Additional reporting by Martha Muir

This article has been updated to correct the time period since inflation was last at 3 per cent