Three anti-Brexit parties launch election pact in 60 seats

Three British political parties strongly committed to the EU have agreed an electoral pact covering 60 seats in an attempt to bolster the number of Remain-supporting MPs in the next parliament, marking the first agreement of its kind in decades.

Unite to Remain, a pro-EU pressure group, brokered the agreement between the Liberal Democrats, the Green party and Plaid Cymru. Candidates from two of the parties will stand aside to allow the other a clear run against Labour and the Conservatives in the December 12 election. 

Out of the seats in the non-aggression pact, 43 will be fought by the Lib Dems, 10 by the Greens and seven by Plaid. Peter Dunphy, a Unite to Remain election strategist, said most of the seats, which are all in England and Wales, could be won by pro-Remain parties. 

“At least 44 of those 60 can be regarded as highly winnable constituencies,” he said

Most of the seats are in southern England, particularly London and the south-west where the Lib Dems are optimistic about making gains at the expense of the pro-Brexit Tories.

While the agreement will help pro-Remain parties on the ground, its impact on the overall results is less certain. Formal tactical voting agreements are rarely used in UK elections and it is unknown whether voters will uniformly support a Unite to Remain candidate over their preferred party.

According to an analysis by the Financial Times, the agreement may change the outcome in just a handful of constituencies. Based on uniform regional swings calculated from current opinion polls, Winchester is the only seat where the outcome would decisively change from Conservative to Lib Dem.

The pact may turn other seats into marginals. Thornbury and Yate, and Taunton Deane, both Tory-held seats in the south-west, could come into play, while Portsmouth South would become a close three-way marginal that either the Tories or Lib Dems would seek to gain from Labour.

In Wales, the Unite to Remain agreement may ensure that Brecon and Radnorshire is held by the Liberal Democrats, who took it from the Tories earlier this year. Unite to Remain trailed their pact during this year’s by-election there — where Plaid and the Greens stood aside to defeat the Conservative candidate.

Yet in the other 11 Welsh constituencies covered by the pact, the outcome may not change. Based on the current polls, the agreement could turn three Labour-held seats into potential marginal gains for Plaid Cymru: Llanelli, Caerphilly and Pontypridd. It might also reinforce the nationalist party’s position in three of the seats it already holds and in Ynys Môn, which it looks likely to gain from Labour with or without the pact

The FT’s analysis suggests the agreement will strengthen the Lib Dems’ position in some seats they are already likely to gain. Thanks to the party’s standing in the polls — 17 per cent according to the FT poll of polls — it may be set to make nine gains out of the 60 seats covered.

The pact could assist the party in London marginals Finchley and Golders Green, Chelsea and Fulham, and Wimbledon. The Greens would also hold Brighton Pavilion, its sole parliamentary seat, with or without the pact.

At the launch event in Westminster, Lib Dem MP Heidi Allen said the agreement had been brought together in recent months after the parties decried the lack of collaboration “in the national interest” with regards to Brexit.

Unite to Remain attempted to include some pro-EU Labour MPs in the agreement but was rebuffed by senior figures in the party. The Scottish National party, which is also in favour of staying in the bloc, is not included. 

In response to the group’s launch, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said “Let’s be clear, we’re going to have a majority Labour government. We don’t need any pacts.”