Can the new Remain alliance win seats?

Three parties strongly committed to Britain remaining in the EU — the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru — on Thursday announced a pact to maximise their chances of winning seats at the general election.

The question many analysts are asking today is: how much of a difference will this pact make to the overall election result?

On the face of it, the effort by the “Unite to Remain” alliance is impressive. All three parties have announced a plan to step aside for each other in 60 seats across England and Wales.

Their alliance is intended to give a free run to the one pro-Remain party candidate who will end up standing in each constituency.

This co-operation can certainly bring results. A similar pact helped the Lib Dems win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election in August, overturning a Conservative majority of 8,000.

However, this BBC analysis suggests none of the contests in the 60 seats in question would have had a different result in 2017 if the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Green votes had been added together.

There are two reasons why this alliance could still be an important factor at the election.

First, many Remainers believe this election is the last chance to stop Brexit. If Prime Minister Boris Johnson wins a clear majority, Britain will definitely leave the EU. So the spotlight on the single Remain candidate in each constituency could be important.

Second, the alliance could have a wider effect. As Anthony Wells of the pollster YouGov says: “It may make an impact in terms of raising wider public awareness about the importance of tactical voting and co-operation. The news that Remain parties are collaborating like this in some 60 seats could encourage Remain voters elsewhere to think harder about who is the ‘stop Brexit’ candidate.”

Co-operation of this kind is pretty rare in UK politics. According to Heidi Allen, the Lib Dem politician who engineered the agreement, the last time anything similar was attempted was at the 1918 “coupon” election.

But the fact is that an alliance like this would be a great deal more effective if it involved Labour. The problem is that any accord with Jeremy Corbyn is anathema to the three other parties — and can’t possibly happen.

Election live blog: Parties clash over their economic plans — latest news

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Further reading

Sajid Javid and the Budget that never was
“Wednesday was supposed to be Budget day in Britain. By cancelling the event, Sajid Javid risks becoming one of the few chancellors never to experience his moment in the fiscal limelight. But the lack of an official statement does not prevent me from outlining the Budget Mr Javid would have presented to the House of Commons, even after the cabinet secretary blocked publication of an update to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts.” (Chris Giles, FT)

Labour’s vow to take borrowing to £400bn fires spending battle
(Jim Pickard, Chris Giles and George Parker, FT)

Five reasons why staying in the EU is good for the NHS
(Sam Ashworth-Hayes, InFacts)

Students: will your vote be more effective at home or university?
(Antonio Voce, The Guardian)

Hard numbers

UK general election: Can Boris Johnson break Labour’s ‘red wall’? Boris Johnson’s hopes of winning the UK’s general election centre on the north of England and the midlands, Brexit-supporting parts of the country that have historically supported the Labour party. Read more