The All-Star break is quickly approaching and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece. I’ve also included two entirely speculative adds in case you really feel like rolling the dice.

If you throw out Andrew Heaney’s first five starts in April, he’s accumulated 321.9 points across 12 starts since the beginning of May at a 4.80 points/IP clip. His overall line is being dragged down pretty significantly by that poor first month and he’s been particularly effective recently. This is nothing new from Heaney; he’s been pretty streaky throughout his career, especially since a lot of his value is derived from keeping the ball inside the park. The most encouraging aspect of this hot streak is the 19.4% K-BB% he’s running across these last 12 outings. It doesn’t come close to his career year with the Dodgers back in 2022, but it’s on par with what he was posting with the Angels before that. He’s probably worth an add during this hot streak if he’s available in your league.

Yariel Rodríguez missed about a month of the season with a back injury but he’s looked particularly strong since returning a few weeks ago. The Blue Jays used him as an opener in front of a bulk reliever a couple of times but have handed him a full starter’s workload in his last two starts. He’s responded by allowing just a single run in 12.2 innings against the Astros and Mariners. Encouragingly, he’s only allowed four walks while striking out 12 during those two outings, alleviating some of the concerns about his ability to command his repertoire. He was also working as a reliever in Japan’s NBP before coming over to the States this year presenting some risk that his workload is being monitored or limited by the Blue Jays to keep him healthy.

The Pirates had been using Luis L. Ortiz as a long reliever or bulk reliever for most of the season but they’ve allowed him to make full starts in two of his last three outings and things have gone swimmingly. Against the Reds and Mets, he tossed 12 innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts and no walks. Not that long ago, he was a highly regarded prospect in Pittsburgh’s organization, peaking at number four on their 2023 prospect list. A pretty disappointing rookie campaign soured his outlook but he’s making good on those high expectations a year later. There are plenty of reasons why he’s taken such a big step forward this season: he’s throwing a much more spin efficient four-seam fastball that’s now generating plenty of whiffs; he’s throwing his cutter much more often at the expense of his changeup; but the biggest difference maker is an ability to command his entire repertoire. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has gone from 1.23 to 2.89 leading to better results across the board. The only limiting factor is his future role; the Pirates could continue to let him start for now but he could be pushed back to the bullpen once Jared Jones or Bailey Falter are activated off the IL.

After a failed experiment as a starter, A.J. Puk is back in the Marlins bullpen and posting fantastic results as one of their top setup men ahead of Tanner Scott. Since returning from a shoulder injury in mid-May, he’s posted a 2.63 ERA and a 2.92 FIP across 24 innings. Over the last two weeks, he’s really stepped into a high leverage role, collecting four holds and nine strikeouts across 6.2 innings. I’ve also listed Andrew Nardi above since he’s been a solid setup man in Miami’s bullpen for nearly the entire year. It’s no secret that the Marlins will be looking to sell at the trade deadline which could open up even more high leverage opportunities for Puk or Nardi if Scott is traded away. And it’s even possible one of Puk or Nardi are moved to a contender as well.

I recommended Porter Hodge about a month ago in this column and all he’s done since then is post a 1.59 ERA and a 2.99 FIP across 11.1 innings. He’s finally seeing some high leverage opportunities in a Cubs bullpen that’s been an absolute mess this year. Héctor Neris is currently the ninth inning guy, but every role behind him is pretty much up for grabs. If you wanted to really speculate, Chicago just called up Hunter Bigge a few days ago. He’s posted outstanding strikeout rates at every minor league stop, and if things go well upon his debut, he could quickly force his way into the high leverage conversation too.

If you really wanted to go out on a limb and speculate, Kris Bubic could be your guy. He recently returned from his Tommy John rehab but the Royals have decided to move him to the bullpen because their starting rotation is currently filled with solid options. A year ago, he looked like he was in the middle of an exciting breakout and the velocity jump that helped fuel that success looks like it has stuck around after his injury. The Royals bullpen hasn’t been great with their current closer, James McArthur, looking pretty shaky at times. It’s possible Kansas City will want to try and keep Bubic stretched out in case they need him for the rotation, but they could also push him into higher leverage opportunities as a fireman to alleviate some of the pressure on their relievers.

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• A few teams have pretty wonky schedules next week as the season heads into the All-Star break. The Mets wrap up a four-game, wrap around series against the Pirates before hosting a couple of pretty easy matchups in the Nationals and Rockies at home. While I won’t recommend every starter in their rotation, you can feel pretty good about starting Christian Scott for both of his games as well as Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.
• The Nationals also have a four-game, wrap around series against the Cardinals that wraps up on Monday. That gives Mitchell Parker a more palatable start before his tougher matchup against the Brewers later in the week.
• Not only does St. Louis have that weird Monday game, they have a two-game series against the Royals, an off day on Thursday, and then a four-game set against the Cubs that includes a scheduled double-header on Saturday. The off day means they can keep their entire staff on schedule without having to callup a spot starter for the twin bill over the weekend. And like the Mets, all three of their opponents next week look pretty weak; it’s an easy call to start most of their starters next week.
• The Cubs don’t have the same luxury the off day affords the Cardinals so keep an eye on who their announced starters are for that weekend series.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Orioles have a pretty nice West Coast road trip next week against the punchless Mariners and A’s. Dean Kremer is on the verge of returning from the IL, so pay attention to his status and the member of the rotation he bumps out.
• The Angels also have a pair of easier matchups against the A’s and Cubs, but their starting rotation is such a mess, I can’t really recommend starting anyone from their staff except for Tyler Anderson. Davis Daniel did have a brilliant debut yesterday, so if you want to take a flier on the unheralded prospect, he’s got a pretty cushy matchup for his second start of his career.
• The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Colorado for four games and then heading to Los Angeles to face the high-powered Dodgers offense. Freddy Peralta avoids a start in Coors so he might be the only viable starter from their rotation, but you could risk a start from Tobias Myers against the Rockies if you’re feeling really lucky.
• Along with their tough series against the Brewers, the Dodgers will also host the Diamondbacks who are hitting particularly well right now. You’ll probably want to wait to see if Bobby Miller can put together a strong start before inserting him back into your lineups — his start against the White Sox this week was pretty ugly.

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

As Chad Young has done in previous posts, I am also going to rate each player on the following scale:

• Don’t Bother – This means that even as auctions are started, other teams are adding this player, or he is on a hot streak, I am just not interested in adding this player. I don’t see them being worth a roster spot.
• Don’t Stress – I can see why you would add this player. I can totally understand placing a bid, but I am not super worried about winning this player. I would bid $1 for sure, maybe a bit more, as long as it doesn’t impact my roster at all.
• Don’t Go Crazy – I would like to add this player, but I am not willing to hamper my team to do it. I’ll look for cuts, and if I can clear money to make a big bid without losing players I’ll regret cutting, I will do it.
• Don’t Lose – These players rarely come up but they do, from time-to-time. These are guys that I am willing to make a difficult cut to add. Don’t expect to see this designation used often.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a little less than half way through the regular season and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Jameson Taillon started off the season strong, got hurt, returned and struggled for a few weeks, and has finally come back around to find some success over his last three starts. Against the Rays, Cardinals, and red-hot Mets, he’s allowed just three runs in 19 innings with a phenomenal 6.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unlike Myers above, Taillon has earned his success despite seeing rather normal looking batted ball peripherals. He’s probably worth an add during this hot streak if he’s available in your league.

Miles Mikolas has always enjoyed some on-again, off-again success as an innings-eater for the Cardinals. Last year was a down season for him but he’s regained some of the strikeouts that he had lost; his K% is now back up closer to where it was in 2022 when it reached a career high 19%. There really isn’t all that much that’s different in his profile — being so dependent on the command of his entire repertoire, he can go through tough stretches when he isn’t locating very well. Right now, he’s got a good feel for his pitch mix and has spun three excellent starts in a row. None of the teams he’s faced during this stretch have been all that impressive — at home against the Pirates and Giants and away at the Cubs — but it’s probably worth riding the hot streak if you’re desperate for pitching.

Tobias Myers has been thrust into a much larger role than expected thanks to all the injuries the Brewers have suffered in their pitching staff. He struggled after making his debut in late April but he’s settled into the big leagues and has been particularly impressive in June. Across four starts this month, he’s allowed just two runs while compiling a pretty good 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s definitely benefitting from some good batted ball luck — his BABIP allowed this month is a measly .182 — but he’s also cut his barrel rate allowed in half. Looking under the hood, he’s increased the usage of his mediocre fastball in June, though he’s run a .307 expected wOBA with his heater during this hot streak. More impressively, he’s running whiff rates higher than 30% on both his slider and changeup which gives him two pretty decent weapons to attack batters with once he’s established the fastball.

It’s tough to stand out in the Guardians elite relief corps but Sam Hentges has quietly put up some solid numbers over the last few years as a less heralded member of Cleveland’s bullpen. He’s back to his usual dominance this year, with career-best strikeout and walk rates so far. There are four pitchers ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order, but as a left-handed pitcher, he gets opportunities to pick up holds against teams with particularly difficult left-handed batters. Over the last two weeks, he’s earned three holds across six appearances.

With the Mets bullpen a mess, Dedniel Núñez has earned a number of high-leverage opportunities since being recalled from the minors at the tail end of April. Ranked 33rd on their pre-season prospect list, Núñez has nasty stuff but a lack of command has really held him back from truly standing out as a relief prospect. He’s managed to gain a much better feel for his pitch mix this year — he’s allowed just three walks all season long — and that’s helped his raw stuff play to its strengths. With his recent background as a starter, New York has been using him in a multi-inning role, which has allowed him to accumulate a ton of Ottoneu points pretty quickly.

As long as he has good feel for his slider, Colin Poche will be a useful high-leverage option in the Rays bullpen. He’s been super effective since being activated off the IL a few weeks ago after missing a month with a back injury; over his last eight outings, he hasn’t allowed a run and has only allowed five baserunners. He’s probably sitting either second or third in line behind the closer Pete Fairbanks but is still seeing plenty of high-leverage work.

Zack Kelly earned a shot in the big leagues after going undrafted and getting released multiple times thanks to a pretty big increase in fastball velocity in 2022. He didn’t really stand out in limited work that year and the following season, but he’s in the midst of a breakout season so far this year. The biggest difference, beyond maintaining his improved velocity, is the introduction of a sweeper and cutter to his pitch mix. The breaking ball, in particular, has been something he had struggled to develop over the years, and now that he’s finally comfortable with one, he’s flourished. He’s earned a bit of high-leverage work recently alongside a couple of gigs opening for a bulk reliever. He’s struck out 16 this month against just three walks, a significant improvement over the 10 free passes he handed out over the first two months of the season.

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• Atlanta has a couple of easier matchups next week but they also have a makeup game scheduled for Thursday in Chicago. That means they’ll travel to St. Louis for the first half of the week, make their one-day stop on the Southside, and then head home to face the Pirates. It looks like Charlie Morton and Drew Thorpe are the two pitchers scheduled to start in that game.
• Philadelphia also has a pair of easier matchups next week against the Tigers and Marlins, and the only reason why that Miami series isn’t colored blue above is because they’re playing in Philadelphia and the comfy confines of Citizens Bank Park.
• The Blue Jays have a pretty tough slate of games against the Red Sox in Fenway and then the Yankees at home. It also looks wise to fade starters from the Rangers too; they’re on the road against the Brewers and Orioles.