Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/24
2:00 |
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2:01 |
: Let’s jsut get going
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2:01 |
: are we gonna be waiting til July 31st for the trade market to really get going again?
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2:01 |
: I think it’ll be more like July 28th or something
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2:01 |
: but yeah… particularly since expanded playoffs, it’s really hard to convince teams to get cooking early
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2:02 |
: everyone wants to know if they’re in or out, which is harder to peg when so many teams are in
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2:02 |
: there’s also this classic negotiation problem. Without a deadline looming, the temptation is always to hold out for a little more
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2:02 |
: “maybe they didn’t send their best offer, maybe someone will get desperate”
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2:03 |
: I think that earlier trades tend to be for players who have more than just this year left on their deals
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2:03 |
: Is the Yankees’ recent swoon just part of the ups and downs of the season, or is it indicative of some holes that need filling?
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2:03 |
: Yes
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2:03 |
: Look, the Yankee lineup is pretty bad outside two of the best 5 hitters in baseball
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2:03 |
: maybe two of the top two, really
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2:04 |
: when that bad part of the lineup is down, it’s really down
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2:04 |
: I think they’ll be just fine, but we’re definitely looknig at a stars and scrubs team here
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2:04 |
: Compared to position players, it looks like fewer and fewer starting pitchers are primed to reach the (admittedly rough) 55-60 WAR threshold for HOF consideration. Overall, do you think WAR is accurately capturing their contributions, and that fewer pitchers deserve to get in? Or do we need to change how we think about these things?
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2:04 |
: I think that WAR is accurately capturing their contributions to winning, yeah
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2:04 |
: More and more pitchers are handling the same total amount of workload
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2:05 |
: so of course the WAR is getting spread out
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2:05 |
: I just don’t think that that means fewer pitchers deserve to get in
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2:05 |
: fame is relative
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2:05 |
: I think that the criteria should be standing out relative to your era
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2:05 |
: Deyvision De Los Santos. Why does ink have very little to about DDLS? The man’s stats at age 20 (!!) mirror Yordan Alvarez and in same AA/AAA competition. thank you.
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2:06 |
: technically he turned 21 a few weeks ago, but I take your point
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2:07 |
: I’m sure that our updtaed prospect lists will have something to say about him, but well, the prospect coverage right now is tilted towards a)finishing every list b)the draft
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2:07 |
: there’s only so much oxygen in the room, you know?
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2:07 |
: is there any hope for the free-falling Yankees? And if they collapse and miss the post season, will that finally be enough to force out the Cashman/Boone regime?
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2:07 |
: If they miss the playoffs this year, I do think that the Cashman/Boone regime is probably done
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2:08 |
: but uh, I don’t think they’re missing the playoffs this year
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2:08 |
: The chance of the Cards selling some pieces (Helsley) is nearly zero now, I assume? Do they have a chance at the worst run differential for a playoff team ever?
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2:08 |
: I don’t think so
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2:08 |
: last year’s (!!) Marlins had a -57 run differential
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2:09 |
: that’s the record, and if the Cards play poorly enough to lose another 30-ish runs of scoring differential, it’s highly unlikely that they’re qualifying
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2:09 |
: Hi Ben, I play in a 12-team roto where we score the big 5 plus OBP, SLG, and K’s. I use J. Pederson against RHP and am happy. Been offered C. Walker lin trade. Is he and his increased ABs an upgrade over Joc?
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2:09 |
: I’d take Walker, yeah
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2:10 |
: Lindor is 4th in MLB in fWAR (among hitters) since the start of 2022. Not a single All-Star appearance in these past three seasons. As a Mets fan/Lindor stan, this makes me sad! He’s a superstar!
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2:10 |
: Yeah, I completely agree with this
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2:10 |
: to be clear, I don’t see what they were gonna do this year
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2:10 |
: Elly De La Cruz actually does deserve the spot
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2:10 |
: like, just on the numbers. and he’s also new and fun
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2:11 |
: Trea Turner is the weak link here, and he got voted in as a starter
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2:11 |
: but Lindor is definitely underrated. I am knee deep in a bunch of projection stuff for trade value and I’m impressed by both what he’s done and how he’s projected to do going forward
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2:12 |
: Willi Castro all star snub ?
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2:12 |
: Yeah, though I assume he’ll end up making it with injury replacements taken into account
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2:13 |
: I was sad that my guy Erick Fedde didn’t make it until I decided he’ll probably get in as a replacement
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2:13 |
: pitchers in particular see a ton of attrition
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2:13 |
: Are there hitters who are relatively worse against good pitching? I was talking to a friend who was complaining that his team just can’t hit good pitching. At first I just said, that’s why it’s good pitching, everyone hits worse against it. When I thought about it a little more, there are guys who have had pretty big samples of good hitting at Triple A and just can’t make the shift to the majors. Their numbers just don’t translate as you might expect. Maybe its something to do with expected further development that never comes or a weakness that only gets exposed only at the higher levels, but even if that’s true, someone else’s line might be mediocre vs. good MLB pitching.
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2:13 |
: This was in The Book, and I’ve been thinking about redoing it, particularly in reference to Brent Rooker
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2:13 |
: I haven’t found a lot of evidence that it exists
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2:13 |
: but that doesn’t mean I won’t keep looking
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2:14 |
: Presently Buxton has his third best wRC+ of his career, but still a bit off from his peak… is he back to being great when healthy?
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2:14 |
: I think so? I really don’t know what to make of last year
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2:14 |
: the not playing the field is what really threw me
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2:16 |
: If Justin Steele is actually traded this month, are we talking multiple top-100 types in return?
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2:16 |
: Something along those lines, yes
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2:16 |
: but on the tail end of the 100, 50 FV types
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2:16 |
: Even though Pittsburgh hasn’t given up, is it time for the rest of us to give up on Nick Gonzales? Past 30 days saw him bat .232 with 1 each (HR/SB) and didn’t reach double-digits for RBI or R. Drop for Schuemann, M.Rojas, Caballero, B.Rodgers?
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2:16 |
: mmmm…. I think I’d hold onto him over those options
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2:17 |
: but most interested in switching for Schuemann
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2:17 |
: the Pirates not giving up is I think a good sign
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2:17 |
not trade? O’Hoppe, Neto, Soriano, Detmers? I think everyone else should be fair game.
: Who should the Angels unequivocally |
2:17 |
: Yeah, I’d say even those guys should probably be on the block, I just think that O’Hoppe and Neto are probably more of offseason trade pieces
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2:18 |
: we’re still in burn it to the ground and rebuild mode, I’d say
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2:18 |
: Will we ever go back to a time when the strike zone isn’t superimposed on televised games? Would you prefer that? Maybe used only for replay? Or eventually an option viewers can toggle on or off?
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2:18 |
: I’d like no strike zone
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2:18 |
: but an option would be ideal, I agree
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2:18 |
: I just find I enjoy the game a little more when I’m deciding if it’s a strike instead of the tv
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2:18 |
: How do you think about the Nationals and their rebuild, especially MacKenzie Gore? He has great pedigree but still hasn’t seem to put it all togehter?
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2:19 |
: “what do you think of MacKenzie Gore” is a question I’ve been mulling over a TON in recent weeks
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2:19 |
: i mean, he’s been great this year, and the pedigree is there
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2:19 |
: the stuff is there too. I think I called him a Clayton Kershaw starter kit once and I stick to that broad comparison
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2:20 |
: Speaking about high pedigree SPs who haven’t put it all together yet…what do you think about MacKenzie Gore and Nick Lodolo (this year and next)?
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2:20 |
: So, these two things are not like the other. Gore has been really good this year!
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2:20 |
: 3.83 ERA despite a .369 BABIP against
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2:20 |
: Lodolo has been solid as well, albeit in less starts
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2:21 |
: I’m more optimistic on Gore, but I’ve kind of always been more optimistic on Gore
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2:21 |
: I think that both of them are so talented that I’m willing to believe they’ve turned the corner with less evidence than your average pitcher, though
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2:21 |
: The M’s appear to be trying to set records in offensive futility. (kidding, but barely). What’s a realistic trade that moves the needle sufficiently for them? I’m thinking Jazz Chisholm for Cole Young and a lottery ticket. He’s not a superstar but would immediately be their best hitter and plays two positions the M’s are terrible at. Thoughts?
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2:21 |
: yeah, Jazz to the Mariners makes a lot of sense to me
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2:22 |
: as ever, the Mariners badly need a second baseman
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2:22 |
: By BaseRuns, the Phillies are the best team in the NL. Would you take them as more likely to reach the World Series than the Dodgers?
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2:23 |
: nah, I’ll still take the Dodgers. I think both will get round one byes, and I think it’s really close, to be clear, but I just like the Dodgers’ talent a bit more
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2:23 |
The obvious consequence of this is that it would be assumed that offensive production throughout the league would go up. But it would have to be assumed that defensive quality would increase as well. The question is, what do you think would happen to the overall run scoring in the league if both of those components were to increase dramatically and simultaneously? |
2:23 |
: I think scoring would go up meaningfully
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2:24 |
: defense exerts less influence on the game than hitting
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2:24 |
: because it only matters on the subset of plate appearances that end in fieldable batted balls
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2:24 |
: Lindor is like, a 99% shot to replace Mookie, right?
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2:25 |
: Unless I am misunderstanding, Mookie has already been replaced
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2:26 |
: hm, now I’m not sure
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2:26 |
: but yes, I think that Lindor is really high in the replacement hierarchy
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2:26 |
: Do the Mariners have a special talent for turning hitters bad? Thinking about Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Kolten Wong, Adam Frazier, Teoscar Hernandez, Jesse Winker just in the past few years. But it’s a trend that goes back to Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins in the mid 2000s.
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2:26 |
: Some of these don’t make sense to me
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2:27 |
: like, Wong went there when he was already on the extreme downswing, Frazier had one good year in 2021 but hasn’t been especially good ever
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2:27 |
: Wong had a pretty good 2022, but I dunno, everyone seemed to agree the writing was on the wall
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2:28 |
: Winker, no argument there
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2:28 |
: I do think that hitters don’t like hitting in TMobile
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2:28 |
: Is there any truth to teams that score a lot of runs via the HR ball, struggle in the post-season? Because apparently, the Orioles score too many runs via the HR ball for a contingent of the fanbase. Cold weather, better pitching, blah, blah, blah.
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2:28 |
: there is not. When Ben Lindbergh investigated this, he found that teams that score more of their runs via the homer actually do slightly BETTER than you’d expect in the playoffs
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2:28 |
: Cubs should be shopping Taillon, no? They won’t get any return, but someone probably would want him even with that contract, and the Cubs would love not to owe him $36 million over the next two years.
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2:29 |
: yeah, I’m sure they will be
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2:29 |
: Could Dodgers be interested with his multi year salary in Dansby? Couldn’t Cubs start the unload by maybe getting River Ryan, once their 2 top rated catchers. To me they ( Dodger side) are spare parts.They help their pitchers with Swanson at SS? plausible?
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2:29 |
: I don’t think the Cubs want to trade Swanson
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2:29 |
: full no trade, seems to like Chicago, his wife plays there too
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2:29 |
: Would Gunnar’s all around value be enough to surpass Judge as the MVP if the season ended today?
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2:29 |
: No
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2:30 |
: I mean…. maybe he’d deserve it? depends on how you think about what deserve means
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2:30 |
: but Judge would win if the season ended today and they had a vote
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2:30 |
: How has Seattle been in first place for this long with an offense this bad? As an O’s fan, I didn’t actually realize how awful that lineup was until this past series. When Julio isn’t hitting, there genuinely isn’t a good hitter anywhere in that lineup?
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2:30 |
: their offense is SHOCKINGLY bad
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2:31 |
: i think Josh Rojas is a ‘good hitter’
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2:31 |
: Cal Raleigh too
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2:31 |
: not great, but winning teams have dudes like those
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2:31 |
: but yeah, woof. it’s just an all pitching squad
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2:31 |
: George Kirby should be an all star. I’m offended by his omission. Do you think he gets added later?
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2:31 |
: I do, and I’m also surprised he didnt’ make it
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2:31 |
: Which team’s young core would you rather have: Reds (Elly, Greene, McLain, Lodolo, etc.) or Pirates (Oneil, Jones, Skenes, Hayes, etc.)?
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2:31 |
: Reds
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2:32 |
: It’s not cut and dry, but I think that the Pirates might have no core young hitters
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2:32 |
: I’ll side with the hitter-heavier side in general
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2:32 |
: Bibee All-Star snub? Would like to see our ace in the ASG!
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2:32 |
: I think he’ll end up making it
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2:32 |
: Help us Obi-Wan Clemonobi! Royce Lewis is lost. Again.
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2:32 |
: it’s so miserable
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2:33 |
: I was talking to Meg about this last week when I was trying to figure out if he was a top 50 trade value guy
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2:34 |
: and literally WHILE I was talking about it he got hurt
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2:34 |
: can’t make this stuff up
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2:34 |
: Yankees all time outfield, Aaron Judge is…top 3, top 6,…?
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2:34 |
: I don’t think he’s lower than 4th
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2:34 |
: so the question is basically order Judge, Mantle, DiMaggio
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2:34 |
: and yeah, I have him fourth
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2:34 |
I strongly think he will still be in the Cards’ org in August, but I wonder if all parties would be best served if another team was given a chance to fix him. Or should the Cardinals give him another year? |
2:34 |
: The offers the Cards get for him are going to be extreme lowballs
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2:34 |
: which is wise, to be clear
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2:35 |
: I think he would probably be best served with a new org, I don’t have a lot of great examples for you of the Cardinals succeeding in this particular type of prospect dev
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2:36 |
: but I think that’s a hard trade to make, it’s always tough to sell low
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2:36 |
: Emmanuel Clase + some throw ins to the Cubs for Justin Steele, fair or unfair?
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2:36 |
: I would not do this trade if I were the Cubs
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2:36 |
: Since the start of last year, Justin Steele is 8th among all pitchers in WAR and he’s got 3 years of control left after this. I really think they’d laugh at 2 50 FV types and that you are badly undervaluing him.
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2:36 |
: i mean, perhaps
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2:36 |
: if that’s the case, I don’t think he’s getting traded
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2:37 |
: which is probably the right thing for the Cubs
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2:38 |
: I have a big old slug of controllable pitching all tiered together in trade value at the moment
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2:38 |
: and either he, Grayson Rodriguez, or Jared Jones is the headliner of that tier
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2:38 |
: I think that all of them are pretty dang exciting
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2:38 |
: You’re brother in name, Ben Rice, done good this weekend!
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2:38 |
: Ben Rice gave you plenty of stuff for your 5 things I liked (or didn’t like) last week. His loafing badly on Friday probably cost the Yankees the game then hits 3 HR’s on Saturday.
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2:38 |
: gotta love a fellow Ben helping me out
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2:38 |
: I recall you being enthusiastic about Eguy Rosario. He’s now back at AAA after only a handful of MLB at-bats. But I understand the Padres not seeing a position to play him. What’s his future? Learn a different position? Trade bait?
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2:38 |
: trade bait I think
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2:39 |
: Have you or others you know looked into the discrepancy between Masson Miller rookie status? Appears to be differences between a few reliable sources.
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2:40 |
: He’s eligible
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2:40 |
: it’s an extreme corner case
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2:41 |
: where he had exactly few enough days, but on a day where he was placed on the IL, a few sites counted him as also being on the active roster that day
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2:41 |
: Julio Rodriguez, traded at deadline?
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2:41 |
: I….
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2:41 |
: no
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2:41 |
: i think anthony volpe has turned into the worst hitter in baseball. or at least he’s tied with like 5 other yankees who play every game
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2:42 |
: Yankees fans are the best
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2:42 |
: While we discuss Walker, what about Torkelson? This was quite the disappointment this season. I wonder if he’s progressing in Monroe but doesn’t appear as so on the stat line.
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2:42 |
: same deal
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2:42 |
: he could probably use a change of scenery but no one’s gonna deal something of import for him
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2:42 |
: More BaseRuns fun (or BaseFuns, if you will): The Red Sox have a better BaseRuns record than the Yankees. And yet they still might sell at the trade deadline? Does that actually happen?
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2:42 |
: The Red Sox can’t be sellers at this point, right? What would you target in their position?
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2:43 |
: I think that the Red Sox will be marginal buyers
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2:43 |
: I agree, can’t sell here
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2:43 |
: No Ruth in the all time Yankees outfield?
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2:43 |
: no he’s just an inarguable number one
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2:43 |
: so the question is how to rank two through four
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2:43 |
: MATT. DAMON.
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2:45 |
: Max Kepler and Julien to the M’s for their top prospect and another good prospect or two.
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2:45 |
: I’m a big Harry Ford guy, so I’d probably try to make this trade work differently, but I like the general concept
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2:46 |
: I guess the weird part is, why are the Twins selling?
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2:46 |
: Re: NYY Stars and Scrubs, lest we forget BOS last title came off this formula. Well, Pearce going nuts may dispute that but I digress
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2:46 |
: that’s part of the stars and scrubs construction, though
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2:46 |
: if you do stars and scrubs and one of your scrubs gets hot, you’re unbeatable
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2:47 |
: If you were AA for the Braves, who and what would you target over the next few weeks? I know a healthy Harris adds some hope at the back of the lineup, but what do you do about Arcia and the other 6-9 who have been lackluster?
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2:47 |
: I call up my friends in Toronto and see if Bo Bichette wants to play in Atlanta
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2:47 |
: seems like the ‘oh we just don’t care about shortstop’ plan is fiiiiinally catching up to the braves
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2:47 |
: The Orioles seem to be developing their prospects into better defenders than expected. Gunnar was expected to move to 3rd and not handle SS, but he has become a good defensive SS. Westburg was iffy as a defensive infielder, but the metrics like him. Cowser was a tweener, but looks great as a CF.
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2:47 |
: Yep, completely agree
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2:48 |
: it’s really interesting. I’ve noticed that ZiPS has been more bullish on each guy defensively than the scouting view
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2:48 |
: when I watch Westburg, I see it. I’m not sure I do with Cowser
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2:48 |
: but yeah, they definitely seem good at this
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2:48 |
: Robert or Crochet – who makes more sense for the Cardinals to target? Don’t think they will for either ofc, but assuming each trade is something like Scott, Hence, McGreevy/Graceffo, flyer, flyer or Walker, Graceffo, flyer
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2:48 |
: if the same package gets Robert or Crochet, I’d take Robert and I think it’s not actually that close
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2:49 |
: you get an extra year of team control. you also get someone who has done it for more than 3 months
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2:49 |
: Crochet is gonna be a big trade chip but controllable hitting is just so valuable
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2:50 |
: Do you think Mayo gets moved for pitching, say to Seattle? His AAA numbers look great. Do you think any of the OF options getted moved too?
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2:50 |
: I think that the Mariners are just not gonna trade their pitching
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2:50 |
: even if it might make sense theoretically
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2:50 |
: Don’t the Mariners and Cardinals lineup great for a trade? What would it take for the Cards to get a Kirby or Gilbert?
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2:51 |
: It would take way too much
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2:51 |
: like, start with Masyn Winn
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2:51 |
: then add
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2:51 |
: and for my money, Masyn Winn is the most valuable Cardinals player
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2:51 |
: actually, I don’t think that’s particularly debatable
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2:51 |
: these trades where contending teams subtract just don’t really happen
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2:51 |
: Should Nolan jones be dropped everywhere
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2:51 |
: yeah
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2:52 |
: What team will get the most contributions from players currently on their IL or minor league teams? Who will improve the most without trades?
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2:52 |
: I think it’s probably the Rangers
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2:52 |
: all that pitching
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2:53 |
: Reynaldo Lopez’s four-seamer has the highest run value of any pitch in MLB. However, he doesn’t get tons of whiffs on it, doesn’t get incredible extension, allows lots of hard contact on it, etc. How is that pitch so good at suppressing run expectancy? Is it just blind luck? Not sure what all goes into run value calculations.
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2:53 |
: run value calculations, at least ours, are blindingly simple
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2:53 |
: you take the RE before the pitch
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2:53 |
: you take it after the pitch
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2:53 |
: that’s it
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2:53 |
: i guess we use wOBA, but like, it’s very cut and dry
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2:54 |
: in our version of pitch values his fastball is 10th best
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2:54 |
: you can look at pitchingbot and stuff+ if you want to dive in a bit deeper
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2:54 |
: they’re both on player pages now!
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2:54 |
: both of them think it’s below-average on pure stuff, but that he has plus location
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2:54 |
: that’s pretty close to how I feel about it
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2:54 |
: Bill James looked at it and decided Craig Biggio did absolutely dominate the bad pitchers and really struggled against the good ones pretty much though the entirety of his career.
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2:55 |
: Obviously, some players have done this
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2:55 |
: the question is whether you can do more than identify it retroactively
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2:55 |
: I think it’s along the same lines as clutch
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2:55 |
: clearly, some players have been clutch
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2:55 |
: it’s less clear that you can figure out who will be clutch next year
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2:55 |
: Those are all great points. What about if the Blue Jays decide to move Gausman? Tho, Mo was quoted downplaying the need for another SP citing Graceffo and McGreevy at AAA. Which is insulting to the fans, but par for the course.
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2:56 |
: yeah, this one makes sense to me, I could see the Cards trading a reasonable haul for a playoff-caliber starter
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2:56 |
: they could go for Kikuchi if they’re more interested in value than pure high end
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2:56 |
: If the Orioles traded for 3 pitchers by the deadline, who should they be? Break em up between starters and relievers as you wish.
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2:56 |
: Garrett Crochet, Tanner Scott, Erick Fedde
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2:56 |
: I think that Crochet and Scott just make a ton of sense
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2:57 |
: and then I landed on Fedde b/c maybe they do a package deal with Crochet
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2:57 |
: Is Colt Keith ascending? If you excise March and April, his triple slash line from May 1 to present is a respectable-for-a-rookie .291/.326/.460, with a 120 WRC+. Progress or noise?
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2:57 |
: yeah, I agree
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2:57 |
: respectable-for-a-rookie, that’s just a good line
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2:57 |
: .460 slug, in this economy?
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2:58 |
: leaguewide slugging is below .400 this year
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2:58 |
: it’s outrageous
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2:58 |
: .460 in Comerica, my goodness
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2:58 |
: Emerson Hancock for Gorman works re: mariners / cardinals, but I think Cardinals say no
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2:58 |
: this is along the lines of a Cards/Mariners trade that could get done
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2:58 |
: I like this idea, I think that the Cards probably would say no? Gorman is part of their everyday lineup
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2:58 |
: but I think I’d say yes
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2:59 |
: I think that enough of Gorman’s production can be replaced by rotating utility types that they should try to go get some pitching
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2:59 |
: Will the Giants sell? Should they?
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2:59 |
: I’m gonna go with no and no
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3:00 |
: I think there’s basically no chance that they sell given team construction
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3:00 |
: and I think that’s reasonable. sure, they’re not in playoff position, but they’re not far out of it
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3:00 |
: and I don’t see any obvious thing that selling the marginal pieces would do
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3:00 |
: If teams could field 9 DHs wouldn’t they chose not too? Maybe eventually they would but the list of top (9*30) 270 hitters in the world has a fair amount of overlap with the top (8*30) 240 fielders in the world, at least for the near term, right?
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3:01 |
: yeah, I agree wiht this, but a lot more DH’s would see play
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3:01 |
: If Detroit decides to trade Skubal, does that mean they should also try to move Riley Greene? If you’re tearing it down…
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3:01 |
: I don’t think so. I think they should be trying to sign Greene to an extension
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3:01 |
: when are you hoping to compete if you perpetually trade your good players?
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3:01 |
: Greene is a great reminder that sometimes the top prospects take a while to click
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3:02 |
: Torkelson for Walker challenge trade! Now that would be interesting.
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3:02 |
: oh heck yeah
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3:02 |
: bring it on
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3:02 |
: You think Jed Hoyer could potentially do something dumb trade wise trying to save his job? I think his contract is up after ’25.
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3:02 |
: I don’t, I think he seems very buy the book
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3:02 |
: Looking at batted ball data – will use Altuve as an example. Avg exit velo, bat speed, and hard hit % are all bad. But the sweet spot % is great. What do I take from that? Can being really good at one of these cover up for the ones that are bad?
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3:02 |
: yeah, I think that guys with really good bat control (altuve, Jose Ramirez, Paredes, Arenado) really confound the statcast sliders
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3:03 |
: Maybe Edgar Martinez or Alvin Davis can still rake
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3:03 |
: I think we solved it
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3:03 |
: I have quietly been a capable defensive shortstop this year
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3:03 |
: quietly, with loud tools
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3:04 |
: I think we’d be talking more about Oneil Cruz if a)the Pirates offense weren’t so poor overall b)Elly De La Cruz weren’t doing it better
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3:04 |
: If Vince got on base as much as Rickey, would he have the single season steals record?
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3:04 |
: Very likely
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3:04 |
: Been thinking about handedness splits. And what carries more weight; stats for the pitcher or for the batter. Like Yordan Alvarez is a lefty with pretty much no platoon disadvantage to lefty pitchers (161 wRC+ against lefties, 166 against righties in his career). But lefty relievers constantly get brought into face him, and often fail. Or that righties would pump changeups to him (he set the record of most changeups hit for a HR in a season with 12 since pitch tracking started in 2008). Did those pitchers’ platoon splits actually give them a better shot? Or do the batters’ numbers carry more weight?
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3:04 |
: pitcher’s numbers carry more weight
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3:04 |
: hitter numbers are’nt meaningless
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3:05 |
: but they are compiled against a broad range of pitchers with a broad range of pitches
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3:05 |
: whereas pitchers with certain arsenals (killer slider, weird delivery fastball) can be great against same handed types
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3:05 |
: it’s one of these ‘what terrible option do you want to take?’ things when you’re choosing which reliever to bring in agaisnt Alvarez
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3:06 |
: I don’t get it. Why should a playoff team trade for Crochet now, when he’ll have to be shut down darn soon, innngs-wise?
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3:06 |
: I keep hearing that it wouldn’t necessarily be the case
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3:08 |
: Bryan Woo for Luis Robert – who says no?
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3:08 |
: I think that the WHite Sox say no
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3:08 |
: it wouldn’t shock me if both teams say no, because again, the Mariners value their pitching very highly
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3:09 |
: but I can’t see the Sox doing that
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3:09 |
: Ben, have you checked out Arcs, the new board game hotness? Played it yesterday and its excellent
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3:09 |
: i haven’t
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3:09 |
: let’s take a look
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3:09 |
: wow, heavy space battle, sounds fun to me
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3:09 |
: I actually played Arc Nova (similar name, very different) for the first time last week
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3:09 |
: i LOVED it
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3:10 |
: highly recommend if you like Terraforming Mars style games
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3:10 |
: The yanks FO likes tanner Scott but It looks like he’s way over performing and once he regressed would be a fifth option out of the pen. Should I be happy if we land him?
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3:10 |
: I mean, if you think you’re getting a 1.4 ERA pitcher, you’ll be disappointed
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3:11 |
: if you think you’re gtting a 30% strikeout rate guy who will probably walk too many, which is a reasonable late inning statline, you’ll be just fine
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3:11 |
: Ark Nova is cool. Not my favourite style of game, but I enjoyed the action mechanism and the overlapping score tracks
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3:11 |
: Yeah it’s a very clever rendition of that style. Also I’m a big theme guy, and the theme really clicked for me
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3:11 |
: I read the Mariners are the favorites to get Jazz. Are the Marlins going to want a superstar price for him? He’s been fine this year, but he hasn’t come close to being a superstar.
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3:11 |
: They might WANT a superstar price, but they aren’t going to get one
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3:12 |
: 104 wRC+ over the last 2 years and 750 PA. definitely some injury risk. 2.5 years of team control remaining
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3:12 |
: how much better is Jazz as a trade chip than Luis Arraez was before the year?
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3:13 |
: I think I’d rather trade for Arraez, tbh
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3:13 |
: and he did not get a superstar return
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3:13 |
: What parts of their future rotation do the Nats have in Gore, Irvin, Parker, Gray & Herz?
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3:13 |
: I’m all the way out on Gray
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3:14 |
: I’m all the way in on Gore
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3:14 |
: I say they h it on 1 of 3 of the other guys, a reasonable clip, and everyone’s happy
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3:14 |
: other FanGraphs writers, if you’re reading this, keep your grubby paws off of DJ Herz, I want to write about him sometime soon
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3:14 |
: Do you have an idea of what the ‘correct’ trade off is between contact and power in any of your research? Some guys, like Rooker, it pays to just empty the tank every time and some guys take the trade off, Bellinger, and it works out. Staring and Suwinski’s page and it makes my brain hurt, I feel like I say that every week in one of these chats lol
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3:14 |
: I’ve always wondered about this and it’s a really hard thing to figure out
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3:15 |
: basically I don’t think it’s easy to tease out from the statistics
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3:15 |
: because it depends a lot on perception and hand eye coordination
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3:15 |
: Since they all can’t play do you prefer Kierstad or Cowser?
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3:15 |
: Cowser but with a low confidence level
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3:15 |
: What kind of return would Bo Bichette fetch right now? It seems like this would be a prototypical case of selling low of the Jays trade him.
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3:16 |
: I’m VERY excited to hear what teams think about where I put Bichette on my preliminary list
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3:16 |
: it would definitely be selling low
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3:16 |
: but on the other hand, let’s say you’re a playoff contender with a hole at shortstop
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3:17 |
: the Braves, let’s say, or if the Dodgers decide to move Betts to second to ease the burden on him, then
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3:17 |
: them*
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3:17 |
: I dunno, maybe some more peripheral contenders too
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3:17 |
: do you really want to trade for someone who you’re mostly hoping will lead you to the promised land this year
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3:17 |
: when he’s hitting .225/.279/.326?
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3:18 |
: now, I think he’s better than that obv
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3:18 |
: but… are you confident he’ll fix it immediately?
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3:18 |
: and you really do need the next two months to be really good to get value out of trading for him, it’s not like hte Jays are trading him for a song
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3:19 |
: I was on Blake Murphy’s excellent radio show this morning and he asked a version of this quesiton
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3:19 |
: I’d prefer to trade for Vlad over Bo at the moment, which is different than where I’ve been for the past few years
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3:20 |
: Are you boarding the Gavin Stone for ROY hype train, or do Skenes and Shota have that locked up already?
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3:20 |
: don’t write Yamamoto off just yet
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3:20 |
: but Skenes should be the odds on favorite imo
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3:20 |
: feels like the balance of power of impact rookies has switched from position players to pitchers. Should we consider splitting ROY into the Jackie Robinson Award (position players) and the Fernando Valenzuela Award (pitchers)?
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3:21 |
: eh…. i think it’s cyclical, and that it’s too early to say that with much confidence
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3:21 |
: just last year we were looking at an endless string of generational hitting prospects winning awards
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3:21 |
: Cavalli still has a shot to be the best of that Nats bunch, just saying
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3:21 |
: I don’t agree
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3:21 |
: but I think he has a shot to betowards the top
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3:21 |
: I just think Gore is really good
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3:22 |
: alright, I gotta get back to the grindstone and get started on something for tomorrow
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3:22 |
: have a great week, everyone, and in two weeks’ time I’m excited to be talking about the same trade chips, but iwth more urgency
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
To the person who compared Deyvison De Los Santos to Yordan Alvarez at the same age/level, Alvarez was running swinging strike rates at virtually half the rate DDLS is. Not at all comparable imo.