Baltimore Orioles Top 45 Prospects

This is the fourth coat of paint applied to Holliday’s scouting report in the last couple of months. Jackson was shot out of a cannon in his first full pro season and slashed .323/.442/.499 across four levels, ending the season with Triple-A Norfolk at age 19. Despite being three to five years younger than the typical player at High- and Double-A, Holliday had 101 walks, 51 extra-base hits, and 24 stolen bases last year. Again, this was a teenage shortstop’s first full professional season. Now 20, Holliday and the entire Norfolk lineup began the 2024 season on a collective tear while the Orioles were getting little production from second base. Holliday was promoted, hit .059 during a two-week big league trial, and was sent back down. It was the first hiccup he has experienced as a pro, maybe ever. He only sort of bounced back after the demotion, slashing .252/.418/.429 in the time between when he was sent back to Norfolk and when he was put on the IL with elbow inflammation in mid-June. Holliday returned from the IL just a couple of days before list publication.

In a way, the IL stint was comforting because it offered a potential explanation for why Holliday’s performance and ferocious bat speed had tapered off a bit. Holliday’s spray chart shifted away from his pull side and moved toward left field and the third base line in the weeks leading up to his shelving. He was inside-outing lots of contact the opposite way, including pitches on the inner third of the plate that he typically turns on, and it was taking what appeared to be an uncomfortable and excessive amount of effort for him to swing hard. We do not think there is any reason for panic here, or even a reason to reshuffle the top of the overall prospect list despite the presence of several other great young players at the top.

Jackson is unbelievably talented in terms of his plate discipline, coordination, and in-the-box athleticism, and it’s amazing that he reached the big leagues at age 20. He has a big, slow leg kick, takes a huge stride forward, and has loose and explosive hips and hands that helped him post a 45% hard-hit rate last season (neck and neck with Wyatt Langford, even though Jackson is a couple years younger). Even though Holliday’s stride can sometimes pull him off toward first base, he finds ways to get his arms extended to cover the outer edge of the plate anyway. He’s a very special young hitter, though there are a couple of nits worth picking; it is the very top of the prospect list after all. Holliday struggled to pull fastballs in 2023 and slugged less than .400 against them, per Synergy. Holliday’s measurable power is, in most respects, pretty comfortably below the big league average at the moment even though he just got done slugging .490 last year and is slugging .470 at Norfolk right now.

He also isn’t currently a big league-quality shortstop defender and definitely isn’t better than Gunnar Henderson, though his elbow injury might have something to do with that. Healthy Holliday’s ability to make accurate throws from odd platforms is impressive, as is his poise and internal clock. He’s most comfortable throwing on the move and often goes out of his way to do so even when it isn’t called for. Holliday lets a lot of choppers take an unnecessarily high hop, with the direction of that hop sometimes surprising him. He needs to do a better job of staying low and attacking this type of ball in play closer to the ground. We’ve altered his defensive projection to second base because it’s where Holliday is most likely to play with Gunnar around. It’s typical for players Holliday’s age to need to make some adjustments and it appears that’s what a hopefully healthy Holliday will spend the rest of 2024 doing. He has all of the scout-y athletic traits that indicate most of where he currently falls short will improve as his body matures. It might take a year longer than Orioles fans want it to, but Holliday is very likely to become a 5-WAR middle infielder who does everything well.

Basallo was the 2023 “Pick to Click” who “clicked” the loudest, as the then-18 year hit .313/.402/.551, had 53 extra-base hits in 114 games and smooched Double-A. After he got off to a slower start in 2024 (and also didn’t catch until May), Basallo has been on a heater for the last six weeks and has a well above-average offensive line at Bowie as of list publication. Basallo is a power-hitting kaiju catching prospect who looks like a gear-wearing Rafael Devers. His swing looks a lot like Devers’, and he too has plus-plus power projection, a penchant for expanding the zone, plus arm strength, and some profound defensive flaws. Lackadaisically listed at 180 pounds, Basallo actually carries around closer to 240 pounds like a high school defensive end. He has preposterous bat speed and rotational athleticism for a hitter his age and size, let alone for a potential catcher. His peak exit velos and hard-hit rate are already plus on the big league scale, and that data was generated by a teenager at High- and Double-A the last two years. He does tend to chase and over swing, which is why even though Basallo hasn’t posted excessive strikeout rates in the minors yet (just north of 20% so far in 2024), his hit tool is projected south of average against big league pitching. If he gets to as much power as we think he will and also catches, that’s not going to matter very much.

We got a little better idea of what Basallo could do behind the plate last year when he got a full season of reps. When you look at his 2024 positional splits as of this update, he has spent a pretty even amount of time at catcher, first base, and DH, but he’s been catching more frequently as the season has dragged on and tends to go two or three days in a row behind the plate before a recovery day at 1B or DH. His arm strength is great and there were times last year when it looked incredible, but Basallo has been popping closer to 1.95 so far this year and his footwork is often pretty sloppy. As is true of a lot of catchers his age, he could stand to be more accurate and consistent coming out of his crouch. His receiving isn’t good, but it isn’t so terrible that it damns him to first base. His ball blocking might though, and it’s this area of Basallo’s game that most needs to improve. If this skill doesn’t progress, or if his size quickly forces him to move out from behind the plate, then his issues with chase would suddenly become more of a problem, though we’re probably still talking about a strong enough hit/power combo for Basallo to be an everyday first baseman.

Basallo’s chalk 40-man evaluation year is 2025. He’s been promoted ahead of that pace so far, but it’s pretty rare for catchers with his issues to be in the express lane to the big leagues. If the Orioles just want access to Basallo’s bat and decide to fast track him as a DH, or proactively move him to first base knowing Adley Rutschman is in place as the franchise catcher for a while, then a late 2025 debut feels possible. If the Orioles want to give Basallo the best chance of having immediate success as a big league catcher, then he’s more likely on a late 2026 or spring 2027 trajectory. There are few other prospects in the minors who have this kind of offensive ceiling and a chance to play a premium position.

As of list publication, Mayo has posted the most impressive 2024 batted ball data of any Norfolk prospect, most significantly his .537 xSLG and .377 xwOBA. He’s a 22-year-old on a 30-homer pace at Triple-A and is poised to either threaten the playing time of Baltimore’s incumbent corner infielders or be the centerpiece of a monster trade within the next year. Mayo’s swing is weird and he’s a flawed defender who still hasn’t begun playing the position we think he might best be suited for, but he now has a five-year track record of mashing and is one of the higher-probability corner position prospects in the minors.

Mayo executes a pull-and-lift approach geared for crushing mistakes in the upper two thirds of the strike zone, and he has succeeded with this approach all the way up the minor league ladder despite his sometimes ugly looking cut, which has a strange, choppy stride. If most hitters’ strides back toward the pitcher are “outies,” Mayo’s is an “inny” — his front foot often lands closer to his rear foot than where it began in his batting stance. All of his swing’s components fire in a short period of time, and it’s an odd look, but it works for him. He does, however, swing inside a lot of sliders, even ones that don’t completely turn the corner. Mayo’s strikeouts will likely climb against big league pitchers who can exploit this, at least initially, but he’s going to get to such big power that it probably won’t matter.

There is still a lot of work to be done on defense here, as Mayo’s size makes it hard for him to move around at third base. Unless he improves at first base (where his playing time was increasing prior to a mid-May fractured rib) or in right field (where Mayo has been speculatively projected here at FanGraphs for a while because of his impressive max-effort arm strength) pretty quickly, he’s more likely going to debut because of injury or trade than Baltimore’s needs. He projects to be one of the 10 to 15 most productive first baseman or corner outfielders in the game.

Kjerstad put up a 1.011 OPS during his three years at Arkansas and was the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. His pro career got off to a delayed start because of multiple health issues. He was diagnosed with myocarditis shortly after signing, which kept him out for all of 2021, and then a high grade hamstring strain put him on the IL for the first half of 2022. It wasn’t until that June, two years after he was drafted, Kjerstad was finally cleared to be sent to an affiliate. He has been an offensive force of nature since returning to the field. He’s a career .304/.386/.526 hitter in the minors who had 58 extra-base hits in 122 games before he made his big league debut during the last few weeks of the 2023 season. He’s been up and down a couple times so far in 2024 and was promoted to Baltimore again a couple of days prior to list publication.

Kjerstad has monstrous all-fields power and enough feel for the barrel to weaponize it even though he tends to chase. His hands ignite in the blink of an eye, allowing him to turn on inside pitches with power and also to let outside pitches travel deep into the hitting zone before crushing them the other way. He has fantastic plate coverage but expands the zone too much, which is why he’s projected as having a slightly below-average hit tool here.

Kjerstad is still going to have enough in-game power to support an everyday corner profile despite a potentially low OBP, and his defense has surprisingly improved. When he first returned from injury in 2023, it looked as though he’d end up in the 1B/DH bucket. But Kjerstad has looked more mobile and athletic as he’s gotten further away from his health and injury issues, and he now has average range and footspeed, though he still is not a very comfortable outfielder. It might a trade to clear the deck for Kjerstad to play every day in the near future. As long as their outfield is as crowded as it is right now, Kjerstad’s role will most likely be in a timeshare with Ryan Mountcastle and/or Austin Hays. If Cedric Mullins‘ 2024 struggles continue and force him into a speed and defense role down the stretch, more PAs might open up. Kjerstad’s lack of plate discipline gives his profile an element of risk, more than is typical for someone who has performed in the minors the way he has. But his combination of bat control and power is very special and should enable him to be a heart-of-the-order force at peak.

One of several projectable college arms who the Twins have drafted and improved, Povich came to Baltimore in the Jorge López heist of 2022. Povich spent 2023 split between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, with his walk rates climbing as the year went along. Back at Norfolk to start 2023, he threw more strikes, entered the Top 100 list, and made his big league debut shortly before this org update.

Povich’s statuesque frame and effortless delivery are innings-eater characteristics, and his ultra short arm action and his body’s direct line to the plate have allowed him to throw plenty of strikes, save for his Triple-A blip last year. He lacks great tactile feel for release; Povich’s style of attack is more about control than command. Povich added a cutter in 2023 and now has three breaking pitches with glove-side action that run the gamut in terms of shape and velocity. Unpredictability and deception are a huge part of how he succeeds. His arm stays tucked behind his body until the very last bit of his delivery prior to release, and it makes hitters very uncomfortable. Most of Povich’s secondary offerings generated an average or slightly better rate of swing-and-miss in the minors, which has predictably dialed down to average during his small big league sample. Despite lacking a dominant offering, he should be a valuable mid-rotation starter because of his durability and repertoire depth.

Even amid a torrid 2023 offensive performance at Triple-A, Cowser was evaluated as more of a corner platoon option than an everyday center fielder here at FanGraphs. While he hit a robust .300/.417/.520 (with a .390 BABIP) at Norfolk last year and overall had a .280/.399/.498 line at Triple-A in 114 career games, there were visual, as well as underlying statistical issues, that had Eric projecting Cowser as a good player rather than a great one even before Cowser hit .115/.286/.148 and played his way off the Orioles’ playoff roster in 2023. So far this forecast has been light. Cowser showed up to 2024 spring training having added a grade of power to his game. He had an incredible 2024 Grapefruit League, broke camp with the big league squad, and is hitting for enough power to be an everyday-quality offensive player even as his strikeouts have climbed like they were forecast to here at FG.

Let’s recount what Eric perceived to be Cowser’s strengths and weaknesses entering the season, and examine how those have played out so far. The gap between Cowser’s overall chase rate in 2023 (way better than league average, minors included) and his two-strike chase rate (substantially worse than average) is indicative of a very selective approach, and perhaps also of predetermined takes early in the count. This was interpreted as an indication that Cowser’s elite minor league walk rates would come down once he was in the big leagues. So far that has been correct. Cowser’s 2024 chase splits are still pretty dramatic (27% overall, 44% with two strikes), and his walk rate has come down from the 16-17% he showed throughout the minors to 9.6% so far in 2024.

Eric also wasn’t forecasting an average or better hit tool here. Cowser ran a 70% contact rate and 80% in-zone contact rate in 2023 (combined at Norfolk and Baltimore), both of which are below the big league outfield average. Eyeball scouting corroborated this. Cowser’s head was flying all over the place throughout his swing and Eric singled out a tendency to swing over the top of soft stuff that finishes in the lower half of strike zone. This has also held true so far in 2024, as Cowser is striking out nearly 30% of the time (38% vs LHP) and struggling badly with offspeed pitches.

Cowser’s wrists are very strong and he’s capable of doing damage even when the rest of his swing is not well-timed or connected, including to the opposite field. He had a 47% hard-hit rate combined between Norfolk and the big leagues last season (the major league average for outfielders in 2023 was 39.4%), but his peak exits were closer to the big league average. There was impressive pound-for-pound quality contact here, but not big raw juice. That has changed. Cowser is hitting the ball harder in 2024, with his hard-hit rate is up over 50% and his max exit velos comfortably plus. At age 24 there was an assumption that Cowser was done developing in this way, but he’s instead taken a leap. Cowser is being deployed in such a way that three quarters of his at-bats come against right-handed pitching and he’s been a plus left field defender. If you like, you can mentally map him right next to Astros outfielder Jacob Melton on the Top 100 list since those two have similar skill sets now that Cowser’s power has ticked up. There’s been no change to the FV grade here because Cowser graduated pretty early in 2024 and Eric just has to live with being wrong if indeed Cowser keeps performing like this.

Bradfield was a well-known high school prospect who scouts wanted to see get stronger in college, and while that didn’t happen in a way that yielded big power, Bradfield became physical enough to sustain his offensive performance against pro pitching. Bradfield didn’t have quite as good a junior year as he did during his amazing sophomore campaign, when he went 46-for-46 on stolen base attempts, but he looked good enough to solidify mid-first round draft status.

Bradfield is an elite speedster with several catalytic offensive qualities that make him a prototypical leadoff hitting prospect. Previously compared to Juan Pierre because of his build, swing, and speed, Bradfield’s idea of the strike zone is much better than Pierre’s, and he walked more than he struck out throughout his college career, no small feat against SEC pitching. He tends to do slash-and-dash singles damage to all fields, which has remained true in pro ball even though the Orioles have overhauled his swing. Most true everyday center fielders produce close to average power, and Bradfield probably needs to out-hit his pre-draft contact projection to be a true 2-WAR everyday option. It looks like he might. He has an 84% contact rate and minute 5.7% swinging strike rate as of publication, and he’s doing that amid tweaks to both his bat’s angle of attack and his lower half usage. There are still all kinds of other statistical indicators that say Bradfield is going to have trouble actualizing any kind of power, but he might make enough contact to be a Michael Bourn or Gregor Blanco type player. We’d like to see him do this against Double-A pitching for a while before stuffing him in the Top 100.

McDermott, whose brother Sean plays pro basketball in Italy for a club called Openjobmetis Varese, was drafted by Houston in 2021 and traded to Baltimore as part of the Trey Mancini multi-team swap of a couple of deadlines ago. He has tallied more minor league strikeouts than any other pitcher since 2022. McDermott has impact stuff but his arms-and-legs delivery is very difficult for him to corral, and he’s walked 14% of opposing hitters during that span. McDermott has a huge wingspan and creates plus extension, which helps his heater jump on hitters. It also contributes to the inconsistency of his arm swing and is part of why he sprays his fastball all over the place and isn’t a lock to remain a starter. It’s possible that, even at 25, McDermott is still growing into his lever length and that starter-level feel for location will come with time, but he remains far from that reality right now in his 40-man evaluation year.

Don’t get it twisted — McDermott is going to be an impact arm of some kind. He sits 94 with flat angle and ride, and has two nasty breaking balls — a 75-78 mph curveball and 82-85 mph slider — that have utility versus both lefties and righties. It might be good for him to throw the slider more often since he appears to have the most consistent feel for locating that pitch. He can create bat-missing action on a changeup once in a while but not consistently. There’s mid-rotation upside here and some athletic traits that would indicate McDermott could be a late bloomer.

Beavers was one of the 2022 draft’s many tooled-up (mostly west coast) college outfielders who also had scary bat-to-ball indicators. In fact, he was arguably the toolsiest and most athletic and projectable of that group at a strapping and angular 6-foot-4. He reached Double-A near the end of 2023 and is back there this year, and he continues to perform above the league average despite a slightly elevated strikeout rate. Beavers has a classic low-ball swing and he’s geared to hit with loft, averaging 20 degrees of launch. The quickness of Beavers’ hands will make you say, “Dam!” His most skillful attribute as a hitter is his ability to adjust the posture of the rest of his body to help guide his hands around the bottom two-thirds of the zone. Beavers’ uphill swing path still ends up underneath a ton of high fastballs and he’s likely to mature into a below-average hit tool. This is why we have him evaluated as a platoon bat, but he’ll probably be an uncommonly versatile one. Beavers is passable in center field, quite good in the outfield corners, and he’s begun to play first base (where he’s crude). He’s a post-2025 40-man add and part of the very crowded upper-level corner contingent that Baltimore can’t feasibly keep completely together.

An undrafted senior from 2020, Young had a great 2021 debut season split between Low- and High-A, striking out a third of the hitters he faced while working about four innings per start. He was assigned to Bowie in 2022 and made just three starts there before he was shut down with elbow tendinitis that led to a surgery that kept him out until mid-July 2023. His fastball sat 91 mph across 40 innings during the second half of 2023, but Young has enjoyed a two-tick leap this season. That has had a multiplicative effect on the pitch’s quality thanks to Young’s underlying fastball traits; he was utterly dominant at Double-A Bowie early in 2024 and quickly promoted to Norfolk. His stuff, including some of his fastball’s movement, has backed up after the promotion, but Young still has a well-defined four-pitch mix and plus command, which should allow him to be a no. 4/5 starter if he can sustain this kind of arm strength.

Of his secondaries, only his changeup is generating a plus rate of swing-and-miss, and Young locates his secondary pitches in the zone much more than is typical of a big league starter. His curveball has nearly elite spin, but Young actually deploys his mid-80s changeup a little more frequently than Uncle Charlie. The quality of his stuff will be stress tested in Triple-A, but Young looks like a potential backend starter, which would be a great outcome for an undrafted free agent.

Fabian had a very interesting amateur trajectory, starting with his decision to skip the draft as a high school senior in order to enroll early at Florida. He had a good freshman season for a first-year hitter in the SEC, then went to the Cape and raked, which he continued to do during his COVID-shortened sophomore year. His first draft-eligible season, 2021, featured an exorbitant number of strikeouts, but also lots of home runs: Fabian had the second-most strikeouts in Division-I baseball and was eighth in homers. Even though teams no doubt looked at the strikeout issues in the context of Fabian’s age (he was 20 at the time), there was a gap between what teams were willing to do to sign him and what he wanted, so even though Boston drafted him in the second round, Fabian didn’t sign and went back to Florida for a fourth season. He did quell his strikeout issues somewhat, with his K% dropping from 29% to 22% in 2022, and he went 67th overall and signed for $1 million.

Fabian hit 24 homers in his first full pro season and spent the second half of it at Double-A. He struck out 37.5% of the time there and hit just .176 but still managed 15 bombs in 64 games. That is the sort of hitter Fabian is destined to be. He struggles to get to velocity up around his hands, and swings and misses a ton in the zone, more than all but a couple contemporary center fielders. But the explosion in Fabian’s hands and the lift in his swing help ensure that he gets to his power when he’s making contact, and he’s quite a good outfield defender, so he’s ticketed to play a part-time role in the Chas McCormick mold, another bats right/throws left fellow with contact rates near the bottom of the big league center field group.

De León has relief risk not because he doesn’t throw strikes but because his two-seamer has been vulnerable to contact and he might have to pitch more heavily off his slider versus upper level hitters. His arm stroke is a little long, but De León repeats it and looks free and easy delivering the baseball. The length of his arm action might inhibit changeup growth, which is another potential pitfall on De León’s path to starting. We’ve buried the lede a bit here because his slider is fantastic and would probably facilitate a lefty relief role on its own. De León is sitting 94 mph working three or four innings at a time and could throw harder as a reliever. His feel for fastball and slider location is pretty consistent for a 21-year-old and, because of that consistency, he could be a late-inning option if if he moves to the ‘pen.

Baumeister came to Florida State with a lot of profile and ran an ERA over 5.00. He was still an interesting draft prospect because of his uncommon athleticism and vertical fastball ride. Baumeister’s 92-95 mph four-seamer consistently stays above hitters’ bats due to its ability to hold it’s plane and carry through the zone. He doesn’t locate it precisely, but he has feel for elevating it in general, which is fine considering its life. His curveball is a 12-to-6 downer with significant depth that blends well with his elevated four-seamers out of the hand. Baumeister’s slider will show a couple of different shapes. Some have more of a downer shape with slight horizontal tilt, while others have deeper, slurvey-shaped action. There’s also a fading changeup in the mix that he throws with good arm speed, with his best ones showing depth to go along with the horizontal action. Presently, Baumeister heavily relies on hitters expanding their zone against his secondary offerings and he’ll need to improve his consistency as he faces more advanced hitters. This is an exciting arm who is a bit rough around the edges, but he has no. 4 starter upside if he can overcome or improve on his below-average command.

Nuñez came to the O’s in the 2022 trade that sent Jorge López to Minnesota. Last year was Nuñez’s first full season in the Baltimore organization and he tossed 104.2 frames across both of the Orioles’ A-ball affiliates, striking out 125 and walking 58 in those innings to the tune of a 3.96 ERA. His four-seam fastball sits 92-95 mph with solid carry, in part due to his very compact arm swing and his ability to spin (2,500-plus rpm); the heater has proven to play far better when elevated and not so well in the zone. Nuñez’s secondary stuff is awesome. His best sliders have sharp, two-plane shape with late break, but because of his fastball’s in-zone vulnerability, Nuñez more often uses his breaking ball as a way to get ahead of hitters. His least used pitch is a firm changeup at 85-88 mph that will flash unhittable late diving action. It’s thrown with the same high-quality fastball arm speed and falls off the table when Nuñez releases it right. Too often, he’ll throw changeups that are easily identifiable as balls out of hand. This likely speaks to both a lack of feel and confidence in this particular offering, which has immense potential but is the least likely to reach its projected grade. Nuñez has right tail outcomes in the rotation if his command and/or cambio takes a considerable leap forward. Currently working in a piggyback role in Aberdeen, it is more likely that Nuñez ends up as an inefficient but nasty long reliever.

Bencosme remains a skills-over-tools type of prospect with smooth infield footwork and actions, as well as precocious feel for contact. Bencosme’s game is more slick and skillful than it is electric. He’ll make some incredible defensive plays because of his hands, but doesn’t have the monster arm strength you’d ideally want in a shortstop. He tracks pitches well and guides the barrel to them consistently but he’s now going on two consecutive years of below-average offensive performance due not only to a lack of power but because the quality of the contact he makes isn’t enough to shoot the baseball past infielders. He’s been a low BABIP guy to this point because of this. Bencosme’s bat-to-ball skills are still among the best in this system, and while he’s been a mediocre offensive performer the last couple of seasons, he has done so as a young-for-the-level hitter. He’s only 21 and at least holding his own at Double-A right now. It’s perhaps a little discouraging that we’ve seen basically no change to Bencosme’s physicality for the last two years and his narrow build suggests we may not. He has the floor of a light-hitting utility guy but added strength could enable him to have a Jordy Mercer type peak.

Johnson didn’t have great college numbers at Campbell in 2019, but his stuff was electric, and the athletic former middle infielder was new to the mound and perhaps just scratching the surface of his ability. The Rays selected him with the 40th overall pick, then watched Johnson’s stuff take a leap as he posted a strikeout rate of nearly 30% in his 2021 full-season debut. He made it just a month into 2022 before he was shut down with an elbow injury, and was later traded from Tampa Bay to Baltimore at the 2022 deadline as part of the elaborate, multi-team Trey Mancini swap. Johnson had Tommy John just a few days afterward. The Orioles were willing to use a 2023 40-man spot on a rehabbing Johnson, who returned to an affiliated mound in mid-August, barely a year after his surgery.

Johnson’s stuff has been intact since his return, as he once again sat in the mid-90s throughout starts that rarely exceed four innings. At this point, it’s fair to project Johnson as a reliever. He’s 25 and aside from this year hasn’t been fully healthy since 2021. His fastball plays down a tick due to its plane and Johnson’s lack of command. His cutter is dastardly and he’ll be able to lean on that for an inning at a time. We think a shift to relief could come with a velo bump and enable Johnson to be a good bullpen’s third banana.

Forret signed for quite a lot in the 14th round at $450,000 and it already looks like a bargain, as he’s in the midst of a velo spike and has already been promoted to High-A. Forret’s cross-body delivery and rise-and-run fastball have been very difficult for opposing hitters to deal with. His lightning fast arm speed causes the ball to leap out of his hand and explode with life as it reaches the plate. Forret’s 82-86 mph sweeper is comfortably plus, and his small school background and general athleticism give him a chance to develop better changeup consistency. His cambio is already generating its share of whiffs. High-octane deliveries like this can be tough to repeat with starter consistency, but Forret has a shot to develop three plus pitches, which even in relief would make him an impact arm.

A very interesting late-bloomer prospect with a plus-plus pitcher’s build and mid-90s arm strength, Lord (yah yah) transferred to UW from Division III Carleton College. He’s had a nearly 10-tick velo bump since high school, and in the lead up to last year’s draft was sitting 94 and was up to 97 with downhill cut. He has a prototypical pitcher’s build at 6-foot-3, has ultra-long levers, and Lord’s ridiculous shoulder mobility is evident on layback. His size, build, arm strength, natural breaking ball snap, and small school background make for a very exciting dev project. He’s raw and had an ERA over 6.00 at Washington last year, but his peripherals were pretty strong and the raw material Baltimore has to work with here is pretty exciting. An elbow strain has prevented him from throwing yet in 2024.

Norby had some of the best numbers in college baseball in 2021, hitting .415/.484/.659 at East Carolina. He then hit 29 homers, nearly twice his college career total, in his first full pro season while reaching Triple-A. He totaled a little over 200 games at Norfolk before he got his first sip of the big leagues in early June.

We have been reticent to stuff Norby because of his defense. He is a very rough second base defender, with fringe range, hands, and actions. He’s gotten more corner outfield run in 2024 than ever before and Norby might be bad enough at second that he ends up a corner outfield-only guy relatively soon. What has been unexpected about Norby’s 2024 is his significant uptick in strikeouts; he’s hovering around a 30% K% so far. This is a little less concerning when you watch Norby, whose hitting hands remain pretty slick looking. He has pole-to-pole power, pulling hanging breaking balls and spraying fastballs to the opposite field. Norby doesn’t have huge raw juice — in fact, his measurable power is somewhat underwhelming. He’s more about consistently creating playable in-game power with swing loft. The lack of pull-side contact against heaters is a thing to watch here but, whereas Norby’s underlying data has typically been less good than his surface stats, this year the inverse is true with regard to his strikeouts. We’d like to see Norby continue to play second base with the hope that he can be passable there and have some versatility. He’s much more rosterable as a 2B/OF than solely as an outfielder.

After he slashed .217/.344/.306 in the 2022 DSL, the slightly-built Arias took a big step forward stat-wise in the 2023 FCL, hitting .271/.370/.414 over 162 plate appearances with 20 walks and 20 strikeouts. He’s off to a similar start at Low-A Delmarva in 2024, with an OBP-driven OPS just north of .750. Arias has an efficient path from both sides of the plate and quality bat-to-ball skills, but he has below-average bat speed due mostly to an overall lack of strength. He employs an all-fields approach, and it’s likely that most of the in-game power he provides will come in the form of doubles and triples rather than over-the-wall thump.

Arias has gotten plenty of experience at both up-the-middle infield positions, where he shows quick, soft hands and fluid actions. It’s not an ultra quick-twitch operation, but Arias looks well-suited to be able to handle shortstop, as well as the other infield positions long-term. He only wields average arm strength at present but his quick release allows it to play up, and Arias has a well-calibrated internal clock. Considering how underdeveloped his frame remains, it’s a good bet he’ll add a tick more on his throws as his frame matures and he gets stronger. Arias projects to be a high-end bench utility type whose power is a bit too lackluster to profile in a regular role. He’s begun to have a Luis Guillorme look to his build and handsy style of swinging.

Sanchez, who signed for $1.3 million in January, is a well-rounded infielder who can do a little bit of everything. He’s a smooth operator in the batter’s box and on the infield dirt. Sanchez’s frame is small-ish, but well-composed. Scouts are a little more skeptical as to whether he’ll grow into meaningful strength and power than they are about some of the other projectable shortstops from the 2024 class, making Sanchez more of a high-floor utility prospect than a potential impact player at this stage. He is currently playing a mix of shortstop and third base in the DSL and walking over 20% of the time.

Josenberger had two solid underclass seasons at Kansas and then experienced a power breakout as a junior at Arkansas. After seeing action at a few positions while he was a Jayhawk, Razorback Josenberger played exclusively in center field, and he looked good enough out there that the Orioles would have been justified in playing him there every day in pro ball. Instead, defensive versatility has become Josenberger’s calling card, as he’s looked more than capable of handling all three outfield spots as well as the keystone position in the professional ranks. His above-average speed and efficient routes allow him to cover both gaps in the grass, while his hands and lateral range project to be solid-average at second base.

Josenberger is a switch-hitter who does a good job of not expanding his zone, but neither his left- nor right-handed swing produces authoritative contact despite his sweet looking ability to rotate through contact. He is putting the ball in play a ton and has a swinging strike rate below 7% so far this year, but the look of Josenberger’s barrel feel is not quite that strong. He looks to be headed for a defense-driven bench utility role.

Portes is a highly projectable right-hander who rolls three pitches deep, but he primarily relies on his fastball/slider combo to get his outs. His fastball only sits 90-93 mph at present, but his quick arm and plus extension give his four-seamer a higher perceived velocity. His smooth, athletic delivery generates seven feet of extension, and even though Portes isn’t rail thin, we think he’ll throw harder with time. Portes’ slider ranges from 80-83 with two distinct planes of break. His feel for landing it in the zone is fringe-y, but the action is late and long enough to garner chase. His changeup is a gradual fader that is rarely in a competitive location. It’s so raw that it’s tough to call it a future out pitch, which might limit Portes to a relief role. He could have two big time pitches if he’s airing it out one inning at a time, but Portes’ age and athleticism give him a much better chance to eventually be a starter than a lot of other pitchers in this system.

Chace checks an interesting blend of data and scouting boxes thanks mostly to his drop-and-drive style delivery. He has a lower-than-average release height and plus extension, both of which are enabled by his fantastic on-mound athleticism and huge stride down the mound. Chace also imparts plus vertical movement on his fastball. It’s rare for all of these things to be part of one pitcher’s profile. He’s missing a lot of bats in a piggyback role at High-A Aberdeen. He’s doing most of the damage with his fastball, but all of Chace’s pitches are generating an above-average rate of swing-and-miss. He’s a smaller guy but a remarkable athlete who has a shot to maintain this kind of velocity across a starter’s workload. Chace still needs to improve his strike-throwing, which has been enough of an issue for him in each of his pro seasons that it could limit him to long relief.

Horvath hit 42 bombs combined during his final two years at North Carolina and slashed .305/.418/.711 during his junior year. After the 2023 draft, he was able to get 99 plate appearances against professional pitching across the rookie, A, and A+ levels and slashed .321/.455/.603 with 26 strikeouts and 19 walks. His performance at High-A so far in 2024 has been slightly above the league average. Horvath hits out of an open, high hands setup, and uses an abbreviated leg kick that brings him to square; he really utilizes his legs well throughout his passes. He has extremely quick and powerful hands that generate above-average pull power. Horvath is geared to pull in the extreme, but so far his bat has been quick enough to make this style of hitting work. Horvath’s lofty bat path is geared towards handling pitches in the lower half of the zone but is very vulnerable to anything elevated. We’re in slight disagreement about Horvath’s defense. Eric thought his move to the outfield in college was more or less permanent and for the best. Travis thinks his lateral range and above-average arm strength make the hot corner his best position, while he’s a passable defender at both second base and in right field. Horvath’s hit tool will be too light for everyday consideration, but he’ll be able to fill a bench role if indeed he proves to be a versatile defender.

Wagner began the 2022 season on Clemson’s bench and ended it with 27 home runs, third in college baseball. He was a draft-eligible sophomore with very little track record of performance aside from his amazing 2022 sprint, during which he hit .370/.496/.852. In his first full pro season, Wagner slashed .239/.342/.405 with a 26% K% in a year split between High- and Double-A. He had offseason surgery to remove a fractured left hamate and began 2024 on the shelf. He’s struggled at the plate since returning to Bowie in mid-May. Hamate surgeries are notorious for impacting a hitter’s performance upon return, sometimes for months as the player strengthens their hand, so we’re not dying to nuke Wagner’s evaluation even though he’s striking out a ton right now. We like the verve in his hitting hands and think there’s enough all-fields damage happening here to offset some of the in-zone whiffs.

On defense, Wagner plays a mix of second and third base. He has enough arm for third, but his 40-grade hands and range are kind of an issue at second. There’s a Mike Brosseau type of big league utility here, as Wagner will probably end up playing another corner position or two and be deployed against lefties as often as possible. He’s really only had two seasons of consistent playing time since high school and therefore has a little more variability as a prospect than most others his age.

It’s a bummer we didn’t get to watch Willems play college baseball because his moniker and aesthetic are both in its wheelhouse. Instead, Willems was a $1 million eighth rounder as a power-hitting developmental catcher.

He began 2023 with an absurd month at Low-A, during which he slugged over .600, but then Willems was promoted to High-A and his performance tanked throughout the rest of the season. In 2024, he’s been chase-prone, but he gets to his power when he makes contact and is running a SLG-driven OPS of .780 at time of publication. That’s what readers should expect from Willems going forward. He’s a free-swinging lefty stick who takes a big uppercut hack. Willems’ peak exit velos are plus (he hit a ball 116 mph this year) and he averages 20 degrees of launch. He’s short levered and able to ambush high pitches. A combination of chase and the in-zone holes in Willems’ swing are going to result in lots of strikeouts. He really struggles with soft stuff down and away from him, and his bat path also looks vulnerable down and in, but A-ball pitching isn’t executing to him down there. Were Willems more likely to stick at catcher, this would be okay. He has a pretty good arm, but badly needs to improve as a ball blocker and receiver. We still like Willems as a dangerous bench bat even if it turns out he can’t catch, though the Orioles should try to make that happen for as long as possible.

Sanchez is a physical, lefty-hitting outfielder whose first pro season is off to a raucous start in the DSL. He is a potential heart-of-the-order thumper with big time lift in his swing. Sanchez knows how to use the ground to generate power, and he’s already doing so with ease and without an elaborate or long swing. His hit tool probably won’t be tested until at least 2025 when he faces better pitching stateside. For now, he’s a very projectable power prospect who’s already wielding pretty impressive pop for his age.

An overslot fifth round pick in the 2020 draft out of an Iowa high school, injuries have drastically limited Baumler’s innings, with both a Tommy John and a more recent shoulder surgery on his record. He has mostly worked out of the Aberdeen bullpen this year, going one to four innings at a time, and he still has an athletic, projectable frame. His fastball continues to sit in the low 90s, but it’s playing above its velocity due to plus riding life (20-plus inches of IVB). Baumler throws two breaking balls. The curveball is a tight downer that will be his best weapon against both right- and left-handed hitters because of how vertical it is, while the slider has subtle tilt and will flash more depth on occasion but doesn’t have the same degree of sharpness as the curve. There’s long, gradual fade on his changeup that batters seem to track out of his hand; it projects to be more of a show-me offering. His fastball/curveball combo gives him the floor of a middle reliever. Does the injury history here leave room for late projection, or has it caused permanent limitations? We really like Baumler’s mechanical look and think he’ll continue to develop arm strength into his mid-20s, but the lost development time makes it much more likely that he ends up in relief.

Pham was a college reliever who remained in the bullpen for his first couple of pro seasons before a successful transition to the rotation last year. He’s an undersized guy with a vertical fastball/curveball combo to which he’s added a well-located mid-80s cutter. He has to nibble with his fastball location somewhat, stopping Pham from working efficiently. He looks like a near-ready spot starter.

Tavera threw strikes in college, but he’s been walk-prone in pro ball as he throws with greater velocity and seemingly more and more effort. Synergy Sports has his average fastball velocity at 91 mph prior to the 2021 draft, but after he began sitting 93-94 almost immediately and has stayed there as he’s has climbed the minors. Recently promoted to Norfolk, Tavera was moved to the bullpen this year but is still working multiple innings at a time. Tavera’s fastball has above-average carry in addition to its new-ish velocity, but his money pitch is a dastardly high-spin changeup with screwball tailing action. He’s added an upper-80s cutter this season and it’s quickly become better than his low-80s slider, though part of Tavera’s game is creating an element of unpredictability by mixing all of his pitches. His command is pretty rough — this is the kind of guy who can just not have it on any given night and implode — so we have Tavera evaluated in up/down bulk relief.

Bright’s stuff ticked up as the 2022 draft approached, especially during the NCAA postseason, where he was up to 97 mph with a plus two-plane breaking ball. He has four pitches and started at Auburn for three years, but Bright seemed likely to transition to relief eventually barring changes to his arm action and imbalanced lower half, which caused control issues in college. The latter change has occurred and Bright is much more balanced over his blocking leg now. He’s reached and is having success at Double-A Bowie as a starter, though his arm action remains pretty long. Brice has a dandy upper-70s curveball that pairs nicely with his riding heater. It bends in at 2,900 rpm, so theoretically Bright should have the natural stuff to develop a second good breaking ball, but so far that hasn’t happened. His changuep flashes but lacks consistency, and we’re reticent to project on it a ton because of Bright’s arm action. We still tend to think he’ll be a middle reliever.

Armbruester has added four ticks to his riding fastball’s average velocity since entering pro ball and has also integrated a second, harder breaking ball into his repertoire. His changeup has taken a back seat to his other three pitches as Armbruester labors through Triple-A starts with strike-throwing issues that weren’t previously present. Armbruester’s fastball plays up a bit thanks to above-average movement and extension. He also hides the ball for a really long time, so long in fact (and with such a stiff, stabbing motion down behind his butt) that his arm stroke is often late. Both his mid-80s cutter and upper-70s slider have distinct shape and use, but Armbruester is struggling to locate them right now. He’ll throw a slower version of his slider against lefties as a strike-getter. The elements to be a somewhat platoon-vulnerable backend starter are here, but not if Armbruester’s control has regressed for good. If it has, then he’s more likely a middle reliever, and probably just the single-inning sort.

Baltimore popped Fruit in the ninth round of the 2023 draft out of Troy (he transferred from Eastern Michigan) and he made his professional debut this year as a 24-year-old pitching for Aberdeen. Fruit works out of the stretch and his stride direction creates a crossfire angle before he throws from his high three-quarters slot. He has plus extension, which contributes to the plus riding life on his 93-97 mph four-seamer. He has two breaking balls: A curveball that’s a 12-to-6 shaped breaker with depth and loose movement, and a slider that mostly features late tilt and flashes sharp, two-plane shape. Fruit maintains his fastball arm speed when throwing his changeup, which has late depth, but he has a tough time landing it in the zone, so it’s heavily reliant on chase at present. There’s enough volatility in Fruit’s strike-throwing ability that it will exclude him from high-leverage spots. He looks bound for a middle-relief role.

Hoffman played two JUCO seasons at Hutchinson Community College in Kansas before matriculating to A&M, where he pitched for a year as a long reliever. He’s a low-slot righty whose sinker and slider has big lateral split. Righties struggle to cover both corners against Hoffman and often get blown up around their hands by his fastball. He has a loose, whippy arm stroke that takes hitters a beat to get used to. Ideally a righty specialist, Hoffman’s sinker moves enough to stay off the barrel versus lefties and help him tiptoe around a walk or two by getting a rally-killing grounder. He has a classic low-slot relief look and has enjoyed a bat-missing uptick at Norfolk this year.

Gillies was a fifth year senior sign who had a big velo boost after he transformed his body later in his college career. He’s built like a construction crane at a lanky 6-foot-8 and went from topping out at around 92 mph to pumping some 98s, and the pitch adds big carry. Gillies was throwing his fastball more than 70% of the time in college but after extended time on the shelf in 2022, he returned in 2023 mixing in an upper-80s slider and splitter much more heavily than ever before. In fact, Gillies often starts at-bats with either of those offerings. He needs to find better feel for locating the splitter but he already has good command of the slider, which has terse movement. Gillies’ ceiling is probably going to depend on how that splitter develops. He’s already made so many drastic changes to his conditioning and repertoire that we wouldn’t rule out Gillies making more adjustments. Right now, he looks like an up/down reliever.

McGough was a minor league Rule 5 pick in the 2022 draft where the Pirates left a lot of pickable players unprotected. A starter in the Pirates org, McGough was recovering from Tommy John when the Orioles picked him, and he didn’t get underway in their org until late in the 2023 season. He hasn’t been a pure reliever for very long, but he dominated the Eastern League early this year and was promoted to Triple-A at the end of May. He should be a useful low-leverage lefty reliever soon. McGough’s whippy, high three-quarters arm stroke helps his fastball play a little better than its velocity, but his bread and butter is a low-80s slider with plus depth.

Ardoin’s bat has shown very little life in pro ball, but he’s such a damn good defender that he’s likely to play in the big leagues quite a bit anyway. Ardoin has a cannon and some of his pop times hover right around 1.80 seconds. He hosed 27% of runners in 2023 and, as of list publication, has caught 40% of would-be thieves in 2024. He’s also a great ball blocker, be it with technically perfect body blocks or deft backhanded picks in the dirt. Ardoin hit for some power in his final year at Texas, but he has rarely been on time enough to pull the ball as a pro. Though he’s a bottom-of-the-scale hitter, he plays a premium position very well and should have third or fourth catcher utility.

Rodríguez is a medium-framed backstop the Orioles signed for $122,500 out of Venezuela. He spent the 2023 season in the DSL, where he tallied 131 plate appearances and slashed .323/.489/.385 with 24 walks and just 13 strikeouts, and he has an OPS over .800 in the Florida Complex League as of list publication. Rodríguez’s bat doesn’t pack big punch, but he has precocious bat-to-ball skills and his path stays in the zone for a long time despite having average (maybe a little below) bat speed. Defensively, he’s a quiet receiver who doesn’t make many unnecessary movements and already shows quality lateral blocking ability. He employs a one-knee, “bottom up” approach that assists with his ability to steal borderline calls down in the zone, and he has an above-average arm. Rodríguez’s defense is the carrying tool of the profile. He projects to fill a backup catcher role down the road.

A 2013 first round pick of the Marlins out of high school, Miami flunked Krook’s post-draft physical and he ended up at Oregon, where he struggled with walks. The Giants took him in the fourth round in 2016 and traded him to the Rays as part of the Evan Longoria deal after the 2017 season. He spent the next several years doing a mix of starting and relieving while with Tampa Bay, again struggling with walks and declining velocity (mid-90s at peak, upper 80s more recently) while still showing big sinking action on his fastball and changeup to go with big break on his slider. The Yankees made him a minor league Rule 5 pick in 2020 and returned Krook to the rotation for a while, then put him in the Scranton bullpen in 2023. He was traded to the Orioles this spring. While his command is still well below average, the length and depth of his slider makes it a plus pitch, and his upper-80s fastball sinks enough to keep it off barrels (he surrendered just 10 hits total in 34 minor league innings in 2023, a number he nearly matched in four big league frames) and generate a ton of groundballs; both pitches are aided by his funky delivery. He doesn’t throw strikes consistently enough to stick on an active roster permanently, but is still an optionable “look” reliever who can come up and give hitters fits.

Strowd is a cutter-heavy kitchen sink reliever whose high-effort delivery compromises his ability to command the ball. Strowd’s whole-body delivery only has a modicum of consistency because of how short his arm action is. He’ll reach back for 97-98 with his fastball but tends to favor his low-90s cutter early in counts. Off of that he has a mid-80s curveball and upper-80s changeup, both of which flash plus. Strowd spikes a ton of non-competitive pitches and even though he’s generating the highest swinging strike rate of any Norfolk Tides pitcher as of publication, he’s carrying an elevated ERA. He needs to find another level of control to be rostered, but his stuff is too nasty to omit from the list.

A hamstring strain and a hip surgery limited Haskin to 33 games in 2023, and he also suffered a concussion in mid-May. He hasn’t been healthy for an extended stretch since 2022, when he hit 15 homers at Bowie. Healthy Haskin looks like a power/speed fifth outfielder whose swing-and-miss issues will likely prevent him from playing a more robust role. The deep lower body bend he employs in the box looks more like a pitcher getting ready to deliver the ball from the stretch than it does a hitter’s swing. It helps Haskin swing hard to have such a big stride, but it comes at the expense of contact. He’s striking out way more than he was at his performance peak, but he hasn’t been healthy for more than a month at a time for two years, so let’s give him a second to find his footing. Haskin was posting jailbreak-y 70-grade run times before his hip surgery and has been more in the 55 range so far in 2024. We definitely want to see a performance upswing from Haskin by the end of the season to keep him on here next list cycle, but it’s too early to take his 2024 performance at face value due to his constant injury.

Trimble was a favorite here at FanGraphs before the 2021 draft, when the toolsy, switch-hitting center fielder was coming off a .345/.414/.638 spring at Southern Miss during which he hit 17 homers, including several during postseason play. It was a breakout year for him since Trimble was a draft-eligible “freshman” whose first collegiate season was wiped out by COVID. He seemed like a “tip of the iceberg” prospect who might have gone higher if his performance track record were longer. Injuries have limited him to about 70 games in the three years leading up to this season, with a torn labrum the worst of these, a hamstring injury the most recent.

This is still a pretty explosive guy who swings hard for a player his size. Both Trimble’s swings have minimal loft and are more geared for line drives than home runs. He shows above-average bat speed from both sides, though it takes him a ton of effort to generate it. Trimble is capable of playing all three outfield spots at an above-average level, with efficient routes and quality jumps. He looks most comfortable playing center, which is likely a product of his experience there compared to the corner spots. Trimble’s development track has been slowed by injury and his offensive profile projects to be well short of an everyday role, but his above-average defensive chops and versatility have him destined to be an above-replacement outfielder. Like several other recently injured hitters in this system, it’s prudent to give Trimble time to be healthy and perform (or not) before moving on from him.

There are scouts who think Martinez, who is a broad-shouldered 6-foot-4, will develop plus-plus raw power at maturity. He also has a huge outfield arm. At one point the Yankees were connected to Martinez, but over time the Cardinals and Orioles emerged, with Baltimore agreeing to a deal for just shy of $1 million.

Pinto had Tommy John in March and will miss all of 2024. Prior to the injury, he was viewed as a lower-leverage long reliever who makes heavy use of his secondaries to get by. Pinto has a plus mid-80s slider and an above-average upper-80s changeup, but he struggles to throw strikes with his 91-92 mph fastball, a pitch that also lacks the shape and movement to miss bats. As such, Pinto pitches backwards a lot, and scouts tend to think he’ll end up in long relief because he is doing from the beginning of outings what most starters do the second or third time through the order. Pinto has a catcherly build and is an open strider with a long arm action. His walk rate ticked up in 2022 and has been increasing since he entered full-season ball, while his spin rates have keeled off (a 200-300 rpm drop from both his fastball and slider compared to 2021). He should be monitored for tweaks upon return.