How did pollsters do in predicting the British election?
The biggest miss since 1992
THERE WAS no shortage of predictions about how Britain’s general election would pan out on July 4th. A huge amount of data gathered over the six weeks of the campaign—144 national polls in all, surveying a total of 622,000 people—pointed to one outcome: a Labour landslide. That outcome duly materialised: Labour’s haul of 411 seats gives it a working majority of 181 in the new Parliament, which began on July 9th. Even so, the polling firms did not cover themselves in glory.
Explore more
This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline “Poll post-mortem”
Britain July 13th 2024
- What does Labour’s win mean for British foreign policy?
- Britain’s Labour government has declared war on NIMBYs
- Britain’s general election was its least representative ever
- How did pollsters do in predicting the British election?
- Why are British beach huts so expensive?
- How the Gaza war affected the British election
- The new front line of British politics is just lovely
From the July 13th 2024 edition
Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents
Explore the editionMore from Britain
Is Britain’s economy finally moving?
Sticky inflation and a weakening job market could still spoil the mood
Are Britons losing the habit of voting?
One low-turnout election is not alarming. But there is a deeper problem
Do children in England talk too little?
Labour talks of promoting “oracy” alongside numeracy and literacy