The army-backed establishment in Thailand goes after its enemies

IN ONE of a handful of politically charged cases passing through courts in Bangkok on June 18th, Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister who was ousted in an army coup in 2006, was formally indicted for insulting the monarchy. In ordinary circumstances, that ought not to be surprising. The conservative establishment close to the monarchy and the army is notorious for reaching for Thailand’s harsh lèse-majesté law, with sentences of up to 15 years in prison, to hound perceived enemies.

Even during long years in exile Mr Thaksin, at the head of his populist Pheu Thai movement, has been enemy number one. The charge has to do with a claim he made nearly a decade ago that the king’s powerful Privy Council was complicit in yet another coup, in 2014, when his sister was prime minister.

But the indictment is striking because only last year both sides made a grubby-looking pact, following a general election in May 2023. The ex-generals then running the country hoped to manage the election. But a more liberal movement than Pheu Thai, the Move Forward Party, easily won the most seats on a platform of breaking up monopolies, ending conscription and reforming the lèse-majesté law. Pheu Thai came second, and the main army-backed party a distant third.

Yet the army-controlled senate blocked Move Forward’s bright and progressive leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, from forming a government. Instead, the prime minister who emerged was Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin, a businessman-turned-politician with close ties to the Shinawatras. In August 2023 Mr Thaksin himself returned from exile to a rapturous reception. Rather than go to prison to serve a long sentence for previous convictions for corruption, he was allowed to move to a posh Bangkok hospital with service on par with a resort. Within months Mr Thaksin was out. The bane of the establishment had become its ally.

The deal made with Mr Thaksin has not been divulged. But his indictment suggests that he has since crossed a line. Perhaps the establishment thought he would steer clear of politics. Instead, he has eagerly re-entered political life, travelling about the country as if campaigning. Meanwhile, a separate case heard on the same day by the constitutional court was against his ally, Mr Srettha, brought by a group of conservative senators. They claim that Mr Srettha broke the law by appointing a convicted man (and another Thaksin ally) to his cabinet. They call for the prime minister’s removal.

In the event, the courts granted Mr Thaksin bail and called for another hearing on Mr Srettha for July 10th. That puts off, for now, an immediate political crisis. Yet the cases, at the least, represent a warning to Mr Thaksin and his allies that they should not take for granted the political space they have carved out.

The outcome of a third case, against Move Forward, is perhaps the most predictable, yet it offers the greatest reflection on the future of Thailand’s dismal politics. In this case the election commission is seeking to dissolve the party, on the grounds that its call to change the lèse-majesté law was treason.

On June 18th the constitutional court appeared to agree. It is likely to rule in the coming weeks. Move Forward faces dissolution. That would be the same fate as its predecessor, Future Forward Party, following a strong showing in the previous election, in 2019. Mr Pita faces the possibility of a lifetime ban from politics. Other members of his party could also be banned.

Dissolution would be a slap in the face for over 14m voters. The ban on Future Forward was the catalyst for widespread student-led protests that lasted months. Since then, democracy advocates have been hounded. Some 2,000 Thais have been charged or prosecuted, among them over 270 for lèse-majesté. If not in prison, many activists lie low or have fled abroad. Even so, others Banyan spoke to said they would continue to fight, largely through grassroots campaigns for greater democracy and representation.

The establishment’s waging of “lawfare” is wearing for many of the targets, says Mr Pita. The risks of taking peacefully to the streets are high when protests become “an excuse for another military coup”. Yet, Mr Pita insists, supporters of democratic, more accountable government are far from giving up. Thais now have a taste of the ballot box. There is no going back—a lesson a reactionary establishment going after its enemies has yet to take on board.■