Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.4 to 2.4 percent.
July 22, 2024
Running the economy hotter for longer could steepen Phillips curve
In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.
July 16, 2024
Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
July 09, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.4 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.9 percent.
June 21, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.6 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 3.2 percent.
May 17, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.3 percent (329,400 jobs) in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.7 to 3.0 percent.
April 19, 2024
Mexico’s productivity woes limit nearshoring, growth potential
Industrial policy reform, nearshoring and a deeper Mexico–U.S. partnership could provide tailwinds for Mexican economic growth. Whether Mexico can harness the full potential of such transformative change is less clear.
April 16, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy
This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.
March 28, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.5 percent (352,800 jobs) in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 3.1 percent.
March 22, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 2.2 percent (304,200 jobs added) in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 2.9 percent.
March 08, 2024