MailOnline's ultimate poll of polls ahead of July 4 general election: Interactive voting intention graphs lay bare the Tory-Labour divide by age, gender and Brexit vote

  • MailOnline combines data from a variety of polling firms to keep a tracker that gets updated once a week
  • Dots in the graphs represent individual surveys while coloured lines illustrate the rolling weekly average 

Advertisement

The final polling results are in and after six weeks of campaigning, the UK faces its general election.

The final weeks of the campaign have seen Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives go on the offensive, launching attack adverts across social media to try and dissuade voters from turning to Keir Starmer's Labour.

Despite a final dip in the polls for Labour, Sir Keir Starmer's party remains over 15 points in the clear of the Conservatives.

 Nigel Farage's Reform Party appears to have finished the campaign strong, with MailOnline's poll of polls showing the Clacton-on-Sea candidate and his party sitting around five points back on the Conservatives. 

Multiple pollsters continue to predict the largest Labour majority since Tony Blair in 1997, with some claiming as many as 250 seats.

Support for the Tories, meanwhile, has continued to slide downwards, with the party having lost more than half of its voter share since the earliest days of the pandemic. 

The party's favourability has also been rocked by several recent debacles including the PM leaving D-Day commemorations early for a TV interview and several MPs caught up in the 'Gamble Gate' saga.

Even the re-emergence of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson at a Conservative rally at the National Army Museum earlier this weeks looks powerless to bring a large enough swell to keep the House of Commons blue. 

Tory party strategists continue to fear the potential impact of Mr Farage's dramatic and unexpected return to frontline politics.

While it looks unlikely that the veteran Brexiteer can lead his party to a larger vote share than the Conservatives, Reform has the potential to pick up a few seats in what is set to be its most successful election outing. 

VOTING INTENTION BY AGE

Voters aged 65+ appear to have pivoted on backing the Conservatives, with vote share swinging downwards to around 35%.

This one of the Prime Minister's main campaign messages focusing around protecting the pension triple lock and ruling out any taxes on pensions.

The youth vote remains in single figures, as Mr Sunak has come under fire through the campaign for hitting the demographic through policies such as National Service. 

Additionally, only one in ten voters between 18-49 are planning to back the ruling party and the demographic hasn't broken the 15% voting intention share for the Tories since mid-February.

VOTING INTENTION BY BREXIT VOTE

Despite still sitting at first and second position, both Reform and the Conservatives have lost Leave voter support, with intention shifting to the favour of Labour.  

Support for the Tories among those who voted for Brexit in 2016 has more than halved over the past four years. 

And according to an ongoing YouGov poll, Mr Sunak's party currently sit below 30% with Brexiteers.

Labour support among Remainers has ticked down slightly, but remains within touching distance of 50%.

Sir Keir has insisted that he will not seek to rejoin the EU, despite pushing for a second referendum when Jeremy Corbyn was leader. 

Commentators say, however, that the overwhelmingly anti-Brexit views of Labour voters and younger generations means the topic is still at the forefront of Westminster.

VOTING INTENTION BY GENDER

 Polls show that Labour is the still preferred choice for both men and women, having dominated the polls over the past 18 months.

Of this split, the gap between Labour and the Conservatives is more apparent among female voters. 

Reform ranks third, just as with the nationwide poll tracker.

However, Mr Farage's party, seeking to attract disenchanted supporters from both parties, scores much higher for men.

Since Mr Farage took the Reform reins at the outset of June, men have flocked to the party's support to the Conservatives detriment and the formerly-known Brexit Party continues to hold higher male vote share than the Tories. 

Around one in six men currently support Reform, compared to roughly one in eight women.

PROJECTED ELECTION RESULTS

Sir Keir's Labour is on course for a more than 200-seat majority, according to the latest mega-poll.

If Survation's latest projection, published on June 15, reflects what will happen on election day, Mr Sunak's party will succumb to its lowest ever number of seats ever, with just 72. 

Labour, meanwhile, would win 456 seats, giving it a majority of 262 – marking its best ever election result and one of the biggest Commons majorities in history.

The sophisticated poll, involving more than 40,000 voters, analysed results down to constituency level. 

It predicted the Lib Dems would quintuple their seats, the SNP would lose nearly a dozen and Reform would gain seven.

Survation's mega-poll had the Tories losing 293 seats, Labour gaining 254, the Lib Dems gaining 45 and the SNP losing 11. This would give Labour a majority of 262 seats – an increase on Sir Tony's 179.

Polls predict several Cabinet ministers are on course to lose their seats to Labour or the Lib Dems, including Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, Chief Whip Simon Hart and minister for common sense Esther McVey.

Other respected pollsters, such as YouGov, More in Common and Best for Britain, have also predicted disaster for the Tories on July 4.

THE KEY ISSUES THAT VOTERS CARE ABOUT

Britons say that the most important issue facing the country is economic stability, according to the findings of a running YouGov survey.

The economy was said t rank first among the top three most pressing concerns that the next Government needs to sort out by 54 per cent of those polled.

It was followed by health (50 per cent), with the ongoing impact of long NHS waiting times having been felt by millions stuck in the queue for routine treatment.

Around two in every ten voters continue to think the environment is the most pressing issue, while immigration and asylum sits at around four out of every ten people.