Bucks free agency and trade rumors check-in

Early last week, the Bucks made their initial salvo of moves to reshape their roster for the 2024–25 season, and they look like pretty good ones. After lacking reliable bench play last season outside of Bobby Portis, they signed combo guard Delon Wright and forward Taurean Prince to minimum contracts (. Both are two-way players who play quality defense, have at least one plus offensive skill (ball-handling for Wright, shooting for Prince), and you don’t need to squint to see them as members of a playoff rotation. The Bucks now have fourteen players on their standard roster, meeting the NBA’s minimum rules but not at its fifteen-man capacity.

Adding another player increases the Bucks’ tax bill—which ownership has proven they don’t care about in recent seasons—and moves them further above the second apron above the tax line with its penalties. Still, it feels like Milwaukee’s offseason isn’t yet complete. Yes, last year the Lillard trade famously occurred less than a week before training camp began in September, and last year on July 9th their roster was also at fourteen, with Thanasis being signed to the fifteenth spot later in the month. But things felt more complete on year ago today than they do at present.

That was also in the aftermath of a disconcerting first-round exit, and the initial big change involved the head coach. In the aftermath of another first-round exit due to injuries, but where the Bucks played pretty well, there likely won’t be moves as earth-shattering to the roster (or coaching staff, of course). And there don’t need to be, despite what some fans or national voices may say, because the top end of the Bucks’ roster (that is, the top three players) is championship-caliber and many Bucks fans agree. They also have a core of six young players—which might be too many—who they can develop, including two rookies.

Moreover, it’s the middle of the roster between the stars and youngsters that needed work. Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder, Patrick Beverley, and Danilo Gallinari were iffy to rely on when the Bucks’ depth was tested, so they reached free agency. Wright and Prince are both likely better than any of the aforementioned names and definitely make Milwaukee a better team. But some fans still think there’s work to be done and it appears the Bucks think so too based on at least one recent attempt at a free agent. Let’s see where we’re at.

Free agency

Not content to stick with their projected wing rotation of returning swingmen Pat Connaughton, A.J. Green (whose 2024–25 salary was guaranteed yesterday), Andre Jackson Jr., and MarJon Beauchamp plus more natural 3s in Khris Middleton and Prince, Milwaukee made a pitch at Miami’s Haywood Highsmith recently, with some star help:

As I’ve discussed here and on Twitter, the Bucks are currently over the second apron by about $4.4m (assuming they keep AJax through January, when his salary becomes guaranteed), thus limiting them to minimum contracts in free agency. So they couldn’t offer something as competitive as the Heat gave Highsmith, who used their Bird rights to give him something close to the $5.2m taxpayer mid-level exception. As a second apron team, the Bucks don’t have practical access to the TPMLE unless they cut payroll by at least $9.6m. And if they manage to do that and use any part of that $5.2m, they’re hard-capped at the second apron, meaning their team salary cannot cross $188.9m at any point between now and next June 30th.

Highsmith broke into Miami’s rotation more earnestly this year and had a nice season, with 6.1 PPG on .465/.396/.639 shooting while providing plus defense. He’s 27 and at 6’7” 220 has exactly the kind of size teams want on the wing, so he would have been a nice fit. Props to Dame for advocating for his team and trying to get quality players in Milwaukee, but alas. Maybe he’ll have better luck with other players.

Speaking of, the list of free agents isn’t picked over by any means, but it remains to be seen if guys who continue to sit on the open market will reduce their asking prices to the veteran’s minimum the longer they’re unsigned. Brew Hoop founder Frank Madden took a look yesterday at who remains, and what their market might look like:

Precious Achiuwa and the recently waived Paul Reed are the apple of many fans’ eyes (Trendon Watford accepted his qualifying offer today, so is not an option in free agency), but even if the Bucks could open up the TPMLE to sweeten the offer, I find it very unlikely either guy will want to battle for playing time at the 5 with Brook Lopez, Giannis, and Portis. But I do think signing another center-capable big man as insurance is a worthy use of their final roster spot. It just might not be someone currently seen as worth rotation minutes, especially on a contending team, and more to cover in the front court in the event of foul trouble or worse, injuries.

If the Bucks go the big route in free agency with their final roster spot instead of another wing (or perhaps another guard), I think it would be best to go young and attempt to develop the guy into a decent role player. Orlando Robinson was waived by the Heat yesterday and is a very tall 23-year-old. If the Bucks can get him in the weight room and on the Culver’s/Kopp’s diet, he’ll have a solid NBA center body. Limited minutes in the big league and time in Oshkosh could be enough in year one, and he could be retained cheaply moving forward, perhaps with some team options or non-guarantees built in.

Omer Yurtseven, another former Heat center, was waived by the Jazz last weekend and showed flashes of high-level NBA play two years ago. The 7-foot Turk is sturdy and 26, so he would be a safer play than Robinson or any of the younger centers in free agency like Moses Brown and Udoka Azubuike. You could do a lot worse than Big Yurt, especially with some of the veterans north of 30 on the open market like Bismack Biyombo and Mike Muscala.

Thanasis update

Recall that last year the Bucks left their final roster spot open for Thanasis, after not signing him in the initial week or two of free agency. Also recall that the longtime benchwarmer tore his Achilles early in May while working out, soon after the Bucks were eliminated. That led to speculation by fans but one somewhat concrete report—mentioned here and translated for us by commenter DangerlessGeek (thanks a lot!)—that Thanasis may retire. However, it now appears that he will attempt a comeback at some point, according to Sport24’s Harris Stavrou:

Given the nature of Achilles tears, it’s likely Thanasis will miss the entirety of the 2024–25 NBA season. The Bucks may circle back to him, and while I’ve had no problems having him on the roster in recent years, I’m not sure how I feel about it this year. Should the Bucks reduce salary and make a move that hard-caps them—this looks increasingly unlikely—then I would argue they shouldn’t hard-cap themselves for an injured fifteenth man. If they remain over the second apron and completely strike out with their final spot on the free agent market, which they seem to be trying to fill with someone new, I suppose I could then be ok with it.

Trades being discussed in the media and among fans

While the Bucks are limited with how they can complete trades while over the second apron, they have a little more flexibility than we additionally thought. I wrote this all up in a Twitter thread if you’re curious on the specifics, but here’s a TL;DR: Milwaukee can send out multiple players in a trade if they don’t need to be aggregated (which triggers a hard cap at the second apron). For example, they could trade Brook Lopez and MarJon Beauchamp for any player(s) making beneath Lopez’s $23m since Beauchamp’s salary isn’t required for salary matching.

Also, the Bucks can technically aggregate salaries in a trade as long as the incoming salary would get them beneath the second apron, where they would then be hard-capped. Let’s use Bobby Portis’ $12.5m and Connaughton’s $9.4m salaries as an example: if the Bucks aggregated both of them to acquire a player/players earning more than Portis, the most salary they could take back in return would be about $17.6m. This is permitted because at the completion of the trade, the Bucks would be beneath the second apron. They would not be a second apron team for 2024–25, but again, they couldn’t spend a cent more than $188.9m because they’re hard-capped.

In recent days, fans have discussed two trade possibilities floated by writers from The Athletic. Let’s start with Brandon Ingram of the Pelicans, who has been in plenty of rumors this offseason. William Guillory mentioned the Bucks as a team who could use Ingram, then states they “would have trouble assuming the massive financial risk of acquiring him.” It’s more than any risk, though: it’s very difficult. The only way the Bucks could acquire Ingram and his $36m expiring contract without aggregating is by including one of Giannis or Dame, which isn’t happening.

For the Bucks to aggregate together enough salary to acquire Ingram, and thus incurring the hard cap, they would need to send out $40.4m to comply with the CBA’s rules. There are ways the Bucks could get to that number, but trading multiple players would open at least one roster spot and they would need to leave enough space beneath the hard cap to fill it. Minimum salaries vary between $1.2m and $2.1m depending on service time, so tack that on to the $40.4m. If it was three players for Ingram, then tack that figure on again for the second open roster spot.

I’m not suggesting all of these players would necessarily head to New Orleans, but sending out Lopez, Portis, and Connaughton would give Milwaukee enough room beneath the second apron to sign one veteran’s minimum deal plus another minimum for a player with one year of experience or is a rookie. Middleton’s $36.2m plus Portis would work too and then allow them to sign one player to the vet minimum. In either scenario, though, the team would be in trouble in the frontcourt and have little ways of addressing this, particularly if both Lopez and Portis are outgoing. Plus, the only real advantage Ingram has over Middleton is youth; Middleton is better at literally everything and isn’t really any more of a health risk.

The other idea comes from James Edwards III who suggests Brook Lopez and a 2031 first-round pick for the Pistons’ Jalen Duran. After going thirteenth overall in 2022, Duran took a step forward in terms of scoring and rebounding as Detroit’s starting center in his sophomore campaign. He’s an efficient rim-running center who turns 21 in November and is on a rookie deal. His block numbers aren’t great yet but he’s filling into his body and may have a future as a rim protector in this league. As you might guess, he has no three-point shot (0/6 in his career).

Duran’s fit with the Bucks is debatable because I’m not positive that he can develop into the kind of starting center who works next to Giannis. But let’s talk about the trade. Detroit is so far beneath the cap that they need to add salary to meet the league-mandated salary floor, so they can take back much, much more than they send out. Swapping Lopez’s $23m for Duran’s $4.1m would drop Milwaukee not only below the second apron, but the first one too. That opens up more possibilities with trades and the non-taxpayer MLE to fill their fifteenth roster spot, but there aren’t many names on the market currently who might merit an eight-figure salary, and one seems to have an overly inflated opinion of his worth.

Then there’s the matter of trading another first-round pick. While that’s a fair ask for a promising center on a rookie deal, it feels like a tax here to get Detroit to take on Lopez’s salary. Since they need to get to the salary floor and Lopez might fetch a first-round pick himself from some teams, this feels like an overpay just to get far enough beneath the second apron. Plus, the benefits of being below the first apron that they’d gain aren’t worth it to me, especially for trading such an important piece of their defense and shooting.

AJ Johnson does the Bucks a solid

One more note from Spotrac’s Keith Smith, informing us that their first-round pick took less than what he was entitled to in terms of first-year salary:

AJohn could have made north of $2.9m as a rookie but settled for a bit less, saving the Bucks about $700k when you factor in their luxury tax penalties. However, the 150,000 fewer dollars are not nearly enough to save them from going beneath the second apron as things currently stand. But who knows, maybe that iota of added flexibility this might bring could help them down the line.