Thursday Tidbits: Musing on Pitching Wins

I suspect Fourth of July - along with the likes of Christmas and Thanksgiving - is a holiday chock full of traditions for Americans. There’s the annual reminder why America is one of the most obese countries in the world in our hot dog eating contest, or the mass marshmallow fights in California, or the lobster races in Maine. One of my favorite parts about baseball is the antiquated traditions that harken back to a nearly-forgotten time: the seventh-inning stretch, the umpire announcing “Play ball,” or the pageantry of Opening Day. But one (of many) tradition that needs to be re-evaluated? The system by which we assign wins to pitchers - especially starting pitchers. In my opinion, the current system is both antiquated and nonsensical that confuses newcomers to the sport, hurts the players, and relies on the non-playing official scorer.

Specifically, I am referring to the official MLB rule 9.17 and its subsequent sub-rules:

The Official Scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher that pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, unless (1) such pitcher is a starting pitcher and Rule 9.17(b) applies; or (2) Rule 9.17(c) applies.

b) If the pitcher whose team assumes a lead while such pitcher is in the game, or during the inning on offense in which such pitcher is removed from the game, and does not relinquish such lead, is a starting pitcher who has not completed (1) five innings of a game that lasts six or more innings on defense, or (2) four innings of a game that lasts five innings on defense, then the Official Scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the relief pitcher, if there is only one relief pitcher, or the relief pitcher who, in the Official Scorer’s judgment was the most effective, if there is more than one relief pitcher.

c) The Official Scorer shall not credit as the winning pitcher a relief pitcher who is ineffective in a brief appearance, when at least one succeeding relief pitcher pitches effectively in helping his team maintain its lead. In such a case, the Official Scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the succeeding relief pitcher who was most effective, in the judgment of the Official Scorer.

Intuitively, one would assume that a winning pitcher would be whichever one that prevented enough runs to allow their offense to either maintain or take the lead in the game. Instead, first, there are different rules for starters that don’t apply to the rest of the pitching staff, which seems somewhat unfair in my mind. Second, wins are only awarded if the lead is never relinquished regardless of how long into a game a specific pitcher lasts or the performances of other pitching teammates. Third, it requires the pitcher’s offense to score situationally - i.e. while the pitcher is still in the game or immediately after exiting. Finally, there is a wide latitude given to the Official Scorer who can decide to award a pitcher a win based on their own judgement of who was the “most effective.” There is no standard delineated in the rules - although one can surmise that the number of runs allowed would play an outsized rules in the Official Scorer’s judgement.

This system sets up a structure whereby a starting pitcher could hypothetically complete 4.2 of shutout innings pitched and not earn the win simply because they didn’t complete five innings. Similarly, a pitcher could exceed the five-inning floor giving up zero runs, but still not earn the win because their team was unable to score until after they exited the game. As a final hypothetical, a pitcher could exceed the five innings pitched, exit the game with their team leading the other and if a later relief pitcher gives up the lead, the starting pitcher can’t win. I propose the solution of a “responsible win” rather than just pitching wins. This alternative approach would focus on the number of runs a pitcher allowed rather than the situational capabilities of their offense or set an arbitrary innings floor to earn a win. Rather than the current system, a “responsible win” would simply set a floor at the number of runs a pitcher allowed. If that floor is exceeded by other pitchers’ struggles, the starter should not be penalized and should instead be given a “responsible win.”

There has been a slow, inexorable decline in the number of pitcher’s wins since the pitching mound was lowered following the dominant 1968 season when we saw the last 30-win season from Denny McLain. Since then, there have only been a handful of pitchers that have even sniffed the possibility of a 30-win season including Steve Carlton in 1972 and Bob Welch in 1990 who both managed 27 wins. Even the 20-win mark has become increasingly rare since that magical ‘68 season with 242 player-seasons reaching it in the interim - three of which came from Randy Johnson. In fact, there haven’t been a pair of 20-game winners from each league since 2015 when Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel did so. This is almost certainly due to a number of factors including increased focus on workload management from teams, falling number of starts in a season, and improvement in scouting and player preparation. For now, we can simply eat our hot dogs (or brats if you’re from the Midwest) and hope for additional change.