1 - Less than three weeks from now, Patriots training camp will be under way, fans flocking to the fields outside of Gillette Stadium to see the new coaches, coordinators and players practicing in advance of a highly anticipated season. Most notably they will be there to see new rookie quarterback Drake Maye. We could say they’re coming to see backup QB Drake Maye, which is what he is as of now, with veteran Jacoby Brissett entrenched as the starter for the moment. But for how long? The people behind the sportsbooks may have given the first clue as to when they think the rookie will take over under center.
2,400.5 yards. That’s the over/under total of passing yards for Maye in the 2024 season recently posted via DraftKings (FanDuel has him at 2350.5). Last season Mac Jones was at just under 3200 yards, but he was firmly entrenched as the starter and was expected to be such for the whole season. Of course he was benched four times and ultimately replaced by Bailey Zappe late in the season (together they barely eclipsed that, throwing for a combined 3,392 yards).
If Vegas and the sportsbooks believe 2,350 to 2,400 is a good number to attract interest from gamblers, then you’d have to think Maye, who will likely be handled cautiously by offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and company, should see the field as the starting QB before the halfway point of the season. On the 6 Rings & Football Things podcast, we’ve set our own over/under on games until Maye becomes the starter at 6.5. Were he to become starter after the first five or six games he’d have an outside shot, even in a conservative, run-centric offense, to throw for more than 2,400 yards.
Does Vegas know something the fans and media don’t? More often than not, yes. How? They’ll never tell. But this is what they do for a living and they do it well enough to make money, so who are we to argue? It’s hard to imagine Maye gets the full redshirt rookie campaign, and as was pointed out last week in The Athletic, it’s hard to imagine Maye is the Week 1 starter in CIncinnati. How long the Pats and first-year head coach Jerod Mayo hold the future on the sidelines while Jacoby Brissett guts it out and tries to lead the newly collaborative and silo-free Pats on the field to victory remains THE most intriguing question heading into the 2024 season.
If you’re confident Maye takes over sooner than later and they'll let him find his footing and sling it, you can now bet on it. Same with a belief that Maye is held out as long as possible and even when in action he’s not asked to be Bledsoe 2.0 out there. We’ll find out who’s right and who’s cashing in soon enough.
For what it’s worth, Maye is +1600 to lead all NFL rookie QBs in passing yards.
2 - Another veteran was added to the Pats core contract list this week as veteran linebacker Jahlani Tavai was signed to a three-year, $21 million extension this week, with a base value of $15 million and a max value of $21 million, as reported by ESPN’s Mike Reiss. Tavai, now entering his sixth season in the NFL, fourth with the Pats, is one of the grinders on a Pats defense that has its established stars like Matt Judon (more on him in a minute) and emerging stars like handsomely paid defensive tackle Christian Barmore and second-year corner Christian Gonzalez.
The majority of the defense is players like Tavai; strong, fundamentally sound, a good tackler with a nose for the ball who’s rarely out of position and not afraid of the point of contact. Tavai was tied for second on the team in tackles in 2023 with safety Kyle Dugger (he himself recently extended as well) at 107. Tavai’s extension shows the new regime of coach Jerod Mayo and Executive VP of Player Personnel Eliot Wolf’s willingness to reward their own and pay their core players.
Many will point and say this is akin to the way the Green Bay Packers did business for a long time, and they’d be right. After all, that’s one of the stops where Wolf learned his trade. Tavai might not have been on many people’s radars to get an extension, but seeing how important the defense of this team is and what will be asked of it on the whole, and selfless team-centered players like Tavai, it’s refreshing to see. He’s a quality player and a quiet leader who now knows where he’ll be setting the edge and pursuing the ball for the next few years.
3 - While many in the ranks of Pats Nation were happy to see Tavai get his contract extension, there may be one person, perhaps a teammate of his, who wasn’t thrilled.
The day after news broke of Tavai’s extension, fellow linebacker and pass rush specialist Matt Judon tweeted, via a SpongeBob meme, that he was heading out. A cryptic message for sure given that he could well have meant he was traveling for the Fourth of July holiday. However, it more than likely meant that Judon, who also is in the last year of his deal with the Pats and has been looking for an extension himself for some time, was none too pleased that Tavai was signed to a new deal before he was. While Tavai is an emerging talent and a core member of the stout Pats front, Judon is a legitimate star who has led the team in sacks two out of the past three seasons (he was injured in the fourth game of 2023 against the Dallas Cowboys and required biceps surgery that ended his season).
Last season Judon began his camp with a “hold-in” rather than holding out for a new deal. Eventually he got into the swing of things and looked like his regular high-energy, QB-devouring self until the injury late in the blowout loss in Dallas. Judon has indicated, again with a GIF on X, he won’t be holding out this season, or at least not going anywhere.
He also tweeted, using a third GIF, that he’s seen other people get lucrative new deals and that his should be on the way, yet still no new deal. The Patriots still have plenty of salary cap money to spend, so it’s not like they’re out of cash to burn. Wolf and company have signed multiple veterans to extensions to solidify their core, yet still no new money for Judon, who likely will command the most of all recently signed Patriots as a star pass rusher.
If the Pats were to decide not to extend Judon, he likely would fetch a good value on the trade market. A number of teams would likely be interested in acquiring his services, energy and leadership, even if he is on the “wrong side” of 30. The Pats have a solid number of linebackers and ends who can rush the passer, but make no mistake, their pass rush and defense on the whole is a whole lot better with red sleeves on the outside. Right after the “When will Drake Maye take over at QB?” question, let’s power rank “Will Matt Judon get his contract extension with the Pats or will he be traded?” question right behind it.
4 - While the offense finds it footing and discovers who among the many rookies is a contributor, the Pats defense will be expected to hold the fort and carry the day. Many in the league as well as those who cover the sport believe the unit, at full force and with Matt Judon, can be one of the top units in the league.
But just how good can they be? The unit is largely the same as last season, save for a few changes like swapping out Mack Wilson for Sione Takitaki. Health will be a massive factor as Judon missed 13 games, rookie star corner Christian Gonzalez also missed 13 games, and second-year slot corner and returner Marcus Jones missed the entire 2023 season. If the majority of those players can stay healthy for 2024 then DeMarcus Covington’s unit should see an uptick in pass defensive stats and QB pressures.
Schedule is another consideration, as the Pats face one of the 10 toughest strengths of schedule, and of course if the defense is out there too often because of an ineffective offense, then fatigue could factor in. Last season, injuries and atrocious offense and all, the Pats defense finished seventh overall in total team defense. Even with a gauntlet of an opening month and talented offenses aplenty to defend against, could the Pats elevate to top-five defense? They’ll need their best defensive effort, and then some, as the season gets underway and the offense figures it out. And by it we mean a whole lot.
5 - Fun to see Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Robert Kraft at what was described as “the hottest Fourth of July bash”, Michael Rubin’s white party in The Hamptons (where guests are asked to wear white, FYI).
Rubin, the Fanatics founder and close friend of Patriots owner Robert Kraft, counts many famous athletes and celebs alike as friends (the guest list looked like a Pro Bowl roster, the Met Gala and the first five rows at the Oscars). The party featured musical performances, lavish food and drink and some impromptu football fun with Brady and second-year Houston Texans star QB CJ Stroud (who seemed to be by Brady’s side a good deal) playing a game of beach football, a highlight of which was Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin pick-sixing Brady.
Perhaps the image that resonated the most for football fans was Brady posing next to Bengals star QB Joe Burrow. A well-dressed and handsome look at the past and potential future of greatness under center in the NFL.
6 - Also from the good vibes get-together department…nice to see Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne in his usual high spirits at his second annual youth football camp.
Bourne, known for his energy and big smile, was moving well and without a knee brace, noticeably, after his ACL surgery last fall following an injury in a game against the Dolphins in Miami. Though Bourne missed spring practices it looks like he’s on track to return for training camp in a few weeks. He’ll be competing for time at receiver with several new teammates like veteran K.J. Osborn and rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. One thing Bourne won’t be competing at? QB, where he joked that he was “QB1” and challenged Drake Maye to come claim the job, then overthrew a receiver in the endzone. Nice to see Bourne and his contagious positivity always making the lightest of every moment possible.
7 - Not that any of us should need a reminder to appreciate every day and that life is a gift, but sadly once again those adages came to the forefront in the NFL Saturday morning as Minnesota Vikings rookie cornerback Khyree Jackson passed away in an automobile accident early in the morning hours. Jackson was only 24 years of age.
A fourth-round pick out of the University of Oregon, Jackson was college teammates with Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who shared his condolences via social media Saturday.
Jackson had made a positive impression on his teammates in Minnesota early on, leading Vikings standout second year receiver Jordan Addison to say Jackson was a player people shouldn’t sleep on in 2024. A tragic and sudden turn of events for a young man with a bright future ahead of him. We here at WEEI join in with the NFL and the rest of the sports world in passing along our sympathies and deepest condolences to his fans, friends and especially his family.