The New England Patriots’ Week 17 game against the Buffalo Bills last season was the 12th and final NFL game last season with a big favorite (of at least nine points) and low total (lower than 43).
Big-favorite, low-total games are no longer prevalent in NFL betting, but they are still common, with an average of 10.5 since the 2013-14 season. None of the 115 games over that time have come in Week 1.
As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the Patriots are currently a 9.5-point underdog for their season opener against the Cincinnati Bengals. The total is 42.5.
If those numbers hold, it’ll be the first Week 1 game since 2012 with a favorite of at least nine points and a total lower than 43.
Translation: There are historically low expectations for the Patriots entering the season, specifically for an offense that failed to score more than 21 points in 15 of 17 games last year.
New England covered as a 14.5-point underdog in last year’s Week 17 game, a 27-21 loss in Buffalo. It gave underdogs a 4-0-1 record against the spread in the final five weeks of the season.
Those teams are 17-10-1 the last two years, the best two-year winning percentage (.625) in more than 20 years.
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