Is Trevor Lawrence worth the massive new contract he got from the Jaguars?
Well, that’s like asking if the groceries are worth the overinflated prices we’re all paying at the supermarket these days. Do you and your family want to eat?
It’s the same in the world of NFL “franchise” QBs these days. If you want one, you have to pay the high cost to keep him.
Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, reached a five-year, $275 million with Jacksonville late last week. The former Clemson standout got $142 million fully guaranteed at signing and with an average annual value of $55 million ties Bengals star Joe Burrow atop the NFL’s quarterback pay scale.
Three years into his NFL career most would probably agree that Lawrence is kinda a franchise QB. A good quarterback but probably not a great one. Clearly not yet living up to the “generational prospect” standard he was held to entering the league.
Over those three seasons Lawrence has a 20-30 record for the Jags, to go along with a 1-1 mark in the postseason that he reached during his sophomore campaign in 2022. He’s completed 63.8 percent of his passes with 58 touchdowns and 39 interceptions for a cumulative rating of 85.0.
Those numbers are actually somewhat similar to the guy who’s now backing him up in Jacksonville – our ol’ Foxborough pal and former Patriots starter Mac Jones. And they are closer to mediocre than they are elite.
So what does this have to do with the Patriots?
Well, nothing really. But everything, kinda.
Lawrence is where Maye – and his agent – at the very least probably wants to be three years from now. Entrenched in his team, solidified in the starting, franchise role to the point of being worthy of more than a quarter billion dollar investment.
And while it’s maybe not the no-brainer, ideal situation, the Patriots probably want to be where the Jaguars are three years from now.
Sold enough on Maye to give him what will be the largest contract in franchise history.
The harsh business reality of the NFL’s modern pay scale is that the days of quarterbacks taking what Tom Brady himself recently described as “team-friendly deals” are probably over. Sure, Patrick Mahomes is underpaid in Kansas City compared to his production and winning, but hard to complain about a 10-year, $450 million deal. And K.C. has already talked about keeping its budding Hall of Famer happy with necessary upgrades in what Gisele might describe as its appreciation of him.
So while it does feel a little crazy that Lawrence is the highest-paid player in the NFL with Mac Jones-like numbers that include a lower passer rating and worse winning percentage over the same three-year span, the fact that Jacksonville is all-in on its franchise QB is as important or more so than the actual financial investment.
Lawrence is the QB of the Jags. And will be for the foreseeable future. (Remember when Bill Belichick famously said that about Brady back in the pre-dynasty day? That worked out pretty well.) No further questions, your honor.
“We can't thank [Jaguars owner Shad Khan], and everyone involved for their belief in me,” Lawrence said in the statement announcing the extension. “I know that the best is yet to come and this is only the beginning.”
Lawrence is right. He’s being paid for the faith the team has in what he can and ideally will accomplish in the future. Certainly not for what he’s done to date.
That’s where the Patriots and Maye strive to be by 2027.
And this isn’t necessarily to expect the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft to be Burrow. Or Mahomes. Or Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, the guys he was compared to during the pre-draft process.
Just be Lawrence, at the very least. A good-enough QB who has a hold on the job and franchise to the point that he gets a contract that we can all complain about the same way we complain at the checkout line of the local market.
Here’s hoping that Maye is highly overpaid by the Patriots in three years.
Because that means New England will be locked in at quarterback. And that’s what you need in order to find success in the NFL. It’s the cost of doing business.