The New Israel/Palestine Conflict Thread: Read the OP Before Posting

[Wheels Of Confusion]

They literally are a terrorist state.

 

[The Aloof Alot]

with nukes.

But frankly I think WW3 is coming. And this time there will be two sets of axis powers: Russia/China/some puppets, and Israel/Trump-US/Neo-Nazi-led European states.

 

[AbidingArs]

The bill to effectively limit administrative detention to only apply to Palestinians has made it out of committee. This legislation was mentioned earlier in this thread. Sponsored by MK Simcha Rothman (Religious Zionism - Smotrich's party). It still has a ways to go before passing, but Haaretz has analyzed the text:

The bill states that administrative detention would be allowed only if there are "reasonable grounds for assuming" that the person belongs to a terrorist organization "whose goal is to undermine the existence of the state or commit terror against its citizens."

It seems unlikely that Jewish settlers in the West Bank will qualify. Currently, administrative detention is overwhelmingly but not entirely used against Palestinians, with 2,733 Palestinians and 10 Jews being subject to it between October 7 and the beginning of May.

According to the current version of the Emergency Defense Regulations, which this law would amend, people can be put in administrative detention even if they don't belong to a terrorist organization, as long as there are reasonable grounds to assume that they endanger "national security or the public's safety."
The bill would also create a fast-track process for adding new organizations to the official list of terrorist organizations should administrative detention orders be sought for members of an organization that isn't yet on the list.

I was not expecting Gideon Sa'ar's opposition:

MK Gideon Sa'ar (New Hope - United Right) wrote on X in response to the approval that "the promotion of MK Rothman's bill to limit administrative detentions proves that the coalition is consciously working to favor the interests of extreme fringe elements over the public good. The Shin Bet warns of a security risk to Israeli citizens in such a difficult security period. Unfathomable and unforgivable."

Canada became the first government to sanction the Amana movement, one of the main settlement organizations in the West Bank. Canada also sanctioned Daniella Weiss, the Lehava Movement and its founder Bentzi Gopstein, among others - there is a complete list on Wikipedia. Daniella Weiss is a prominent settler activist who founded and became the director of the Nachala Settlement Movement to create Jewish communities in the West Bank. She also recently attended the focus group on settling South Lebanon mentioned in this thread. According to Haaretz, Bentzi Gopstein advises National Security Minister Ben-Gvir on issues regarding the police, the police commissioner and officers. Canada's Foreign Minister issued a statement that was dismissed by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir:

Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said, "We remain deeply concerned by extremist settler violence in the West Bank and condemn such acts, not only for the significant impact they have on Palestinian lives, but also for the corrosive impact they have on prospects for lasting peace. We call on authorities to ensure the protection of civilians and hold perpetrators of such violence accountable."

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that all sanctions are "an attempt to give a huge reward to terrorism and the massacre Hamas committed against Israeli civilians and force us to establish a terrorist state in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]."

"After October 7, a huge majority of Israel understands the terrible danger of establishing a Palestinian state," Smotrich continued. "We will continue to develop and strengthen settlements and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state."

Ben-Gvir called Canada's sanctions "a distinctly antisemitic decision" against "Zionist movements engaged for many years in the sacred work of building our country."

"A sovereign country will not accept dictates from any country, and even more so, will not impose sanctions on its citizens out of political decisions on foreign policy matters," Ben-Gvir continued.

The legal adviser for Judea and Samaria in the Military Advocate General's Corps, Col. Eli Levertov, sent a letter to lawyers representing Palestinian herders supporting their legal position. The herders are petitioning Israel's High Court of Justice to stop the Jordan Valley Regional Council from using a municipal bylaws against stray animals and unregulated herding to seize what the council claims are livestock roaming free or obstructing traffic. After the herds are seized, the Palestinians have to pay tens of thousands of shekels to reclaim their animals.

On Thursday, the organization Yesh Din and lawyers Michael Sfard, Shlomo Lecker and Snir Klein, who represent four Palestinians whose herds were seized, petitioned Israel's High Court of Justice. They are demanding that the council release the cattle of some of the petitioners that are still in its custody and refund all the money it collected from the herders. The petition also notes that these are communities that have been grazing their livestock in the area for decades and that their livelihood depends on being able to put their herds out to pasture.

"In recent weeks, the council purports to be a governing body toward those who are not its residents [and] neither vote for nor are elected to its institutions," the lawyers wrote in the petition. They argued additionally that the enforcement of the bylaws on Palestinians is a "significant infringement on the exclusive governing power" of the army in the West Bank. Lecker requested from the council's lawyer invoices detailing the amounts demanded from his clients but says he has not received them.

...

In a statement, Yesh Din said: "The danger posed by the pretension of the regional council, which seeks to hold the power to regulate the grazing of Palestinian herders, has enormous ramifications. This is a new and predatory form of economic violence by settlers and an authority that has distinct annexationist aspects, as it expresses the degradation of the military commander's responsibility in the occupied territory and the assignment of its authorities to civilian governmental bodies."

 

[AbidingArs]

Haaretz reporting on Al Jazeera's airing of footage of Israeli soldiers in Gaza apparently using Palestinian detainees as human shields. Not much detail on it in the article other than this description of the videos - I did not find the videos on a quick search:

In the video, soldiers are seen attaching body cameras to handcuffed detainees and even dressing them in uniforms and protective vests before sending them into destroyed buildings and even the entrances of tunnels, in order to guarantee that the areas have not been rigged with explosives, before the soldiers enter.

The practice is a violation of the international laws of war. In one of the videos, a detainee was heard calling into a tunnel, in Arabic, saying that the IDF controls the area, in what appears to be an attempt to persuade anyone hiding inside to turn themselves in.

 

[AbidingArs]

Found some mixed news in Haaretz - it felt pretty positive until I read deeper and saw the reactions of Israeli politicians.

Haaretz reports Mohammad Abu-Salmiya, the director of Al-Shifa Hospital, was among a group of Palestinian detainees released by Israel on Monday. Abu-Salmiya had a permanent detention order against him after his arrest more than seven months ago. According to the IDF, Hamas used many of the hospital's resources including electricity to operate the Hamas' tunnels under the building, stored weapons, used it as shelter and took Israeli hostages there. I believe Abu-Salmiya was arrested around the time the hospital was raided sometime in November, not to be confused with the later raid around March to April.

It is unclear why Abu-Salmiya was released. One security official claims that it was based on recommendations from Shin Bet and IDF intelligence after they determined that his risk to national security had decreased. Shin Bet does not seem to deny this, saying that they had warned about having to release prisoners due to overcrowding and confirming that "[he] meets all criteria regarding the perceived level of danger compared to other prisoners". The Israel Prison Service says the decision was not made by the prison service but by the IDF and Shin Bet, but added that he was not released due to overcrowding.

Israeli ministers criticized defense officials for the release, mostly focusing on Defense Minister Gallant and Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar. Supposedly, measures are being taken by the ministers to prevent any similar release in the future, apparently on the basis that the cabinet would be consulted for a hostage deal so they want to be consulted for releasing any prisoner "for free" (ie - not exchanged for Israeli hostages).

Israeli security officials are allowing the electric company in Gaza to connect to the Israeli grid to restore power to a water desalination and sewage plant west of Deir al-Balah. Israeli officials claim this is a humanitarian effort to prevent disease and contamination in Gaza that may endanger IDF forces and Israeli residents - this is claimed to be in line with the policy of expanding humanitarian aid in Gaza due to the ICJ case.

Israeli ministers were not happy, particularly as this news followed the news of the release of the director of the Al-Shifa Hospital. As expected, Smotrich had harsh words, but so did opposition lawmakers:

Israel's Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich slammed the decision to connect the electric infrastructure in Gaza and wrote: "We completely lost our minds. We are rehabilitating Gaza with our own hands before its demilitarization."

Smotrich addressed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly on X, formerly known as Twitter: "Stop this folly. This time, nobody will be able to claim ignorance, unlike in the case of the release of the director of the terror command center in Al-Shifa, yesterday."

MK Gideon Sa'ar, chair of the New Hope-The United Right party, wrote: "it's interesting to see who the responsibility will be rolled on to this time ... a government with two left hands."

Opposition lawmaker Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu said, "the decision that must be made today is a complete separation between Israel and the Gaza Strip. No electricity, no water, no fuel and no goods, complete disconnection."

Israel's government told the High Court of Justice that it will establish a system so that very sick patients in Gaza can leave through Egypt to receive treatment abroad. A progress report will be provided to the court within a week. The petition provided some details on the impact of the restriction on crossings:

According to the petitioners, before the war started in October, about 2,000 patients were transferred each month from Gaza via the Erez crossing to receive medical treatment, mainly at hospitals in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

A few days after the crossing was closed at the start of the war, traffic resumed via the Rafah border crossing, but only on a limited scale. The petitioners said that only 5,000 patients had left through the crossing, until it was closed in early May and the transfer of patients stopped completely.

Israel said that it would continue to assist transfers on a case-by-case basis until the system is established.

According to the state, on June 27, Israel allowed 19 sick Gazan children and 49 escorts to leave via Kerem Shalom to receive medical treatment in Egypt and other countries, for the first time since the Rafah crossing was closed on May 7.

The state said that, as part of their departure, Israel made immense efforts to allow the movement of two ambulances and two buses from the Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis toward Kerem Shalom, from which point Israeli ambulances and buses with IDF escorts took them to the Nizzana border crossing to Egypt.

The group included an eight-month infant who needs special treatment for a liver transplant that is not available in Gaza, escorted by her father. Her mother was not allowed to join them. The state told the High Court that it was continuing to advance efforts to allow the movement of more patients who have to leave Gaza.

Lawyers for the petitioners had to be escorted by guards when they left due to a protest by several dozen right-wing activists. Knesset member Almog Cohen, of Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party, was present and told the justices that there was no need for this hearing.

 

[Ajar]

Meanwhile, in the West Bank, Israel is expanding land grabs and giving more power to extremists:

Israel has approved ‘largest West Bank land grab in 30 years’, watchdog says

Peace Now says approval of more than 12 sq km is biggest since peace process began in 1993

www.theguardian.com

 

[schnackenpfefferhausen]

Hezbollah fires over 200 rockets into Israel after killing of senior commander

The U.S. and France are continuing to scramble to prevent the skirmishes from spiraling into an all-out war, which they fear could spillover across the region.

www.thestar.com

Aww-shit-here-we-go-again.jpg

 

[Shavano]

Which will spark at least protests and probably more than that to which they'll reply as if it were Arab militants coming for regular Israelis.

 

[AbidingArs]

On Wednesday, Israel forced the evacuation of the illegal settlement of Oz Zion in the West Bank. The settlement is also known as Tzur Harel, being renamed for an Israeli reservist killed in Gaza in December. This led to clashes between the settlers and police/military involved:

Settlers set fire to tires and a car, and threw stones at the police, who used crowd dispersal measures. After the evacuation, settlers threw firebombs at the forces and hurled stones towards a road in the area, hitting a vehicle belonging to an Israeli military officer.

The settlers were removed successfully, despite some of them cementing their feet and lower legs into the floor of structures (seriously, there is a photo of a guy sitting on the ground, with one leg encased to just below the knee in the floor). The following reason was given for the removal:

A security source told "Haaretz" that the head of Israel's Civil Administration over the West Bank ordered the outpost's evacuation now "in light of terrorist activities and 'Price Tag' incidents originating from the site recently." It was also noted that the decision on the enforcement operation at the outpost was approved by the Israeli government.

I had not heard the term 'Price Tag' in this context before; Haaretz had a link to this description:

The 'price-tag' policy was adopted by Israeli settlers and right-wing activists, intended to pressure the government away from making concessions regarding settlement building in the West Bank. Attacks of the sort usually occur after the dismantling of an outpost or similar event, and are often directed at Israeli Arabs, Palestinians and left-wing organizations.

The settlers appeal to Smotrich failed which caused a member of Ben-Gvir's party to denounce Smotrich, who is also a minister in the Defense Ministry:

Far-right lawmaker Limor Son Har Melech from Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party attacked Smotrich, stating, "Now I know that the administration under Minister Smotrich's authority is responsible for the violent evacuation. The administration is supposed to assist residents of Judea and Samaria, not harm them." She went on to slam Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the IDF's top West Bank general for "acting violently and aggressively against them."

Jewish settlers attacked Palestinians in three different instances in the West Bank on Thursday, bringing Haaretz's total count for the week to six. IDF Central Command noted that they have issued more restraining orders against the settlers but that there is no enforcement by the Israeli police. Seems to me that some of the incidents broken up by the IDF could have the IDF detain people.

Overnight into Thursday, settlers entered the Palestinian village of Khalat al-Daba in Masafer Yatta and stoned residents' cars, along with a fire truck that was parked in the village. Residents reported that the settlers also burned a house and an orchard.

Later, according to a security source, masked settlers set tires on fire and threw stones on the road near Giv'at Assaf, close to the Oz Zion outpost, where buildings were evacuated by Israeli border police on Wednesday. According to the source, Israeli army forces that arrived at the scene dispersed the settlers, shooting into the air.

A few hours later, in a third incident, settlers entered the village of Fandaqumiya, north of the West Bank city of Nablus. They threw stones and set fire to a car, according to two security sources, who said soldiers who arrived at the scene also fired into the air.

 

[AbidingArs]

Government funding for residents who were officially evacuated from northern Israel due to the conflict with Hezbollah expire July 7. This was the date that was originally set for when the conflict would be over. A one billion shekel ($250 million) proposal was submitted to Smotrich to continue the funding through the end of August. The government is expected to meet on the day it expires to decide on where the funding will come from.

The article provides some background on the amount of money needed (though I am unclear if this is for evacuees from around Gaza in addition to the north). The proposal is getting backlash due to cutting already earmarked funds for various coalition/political purposes:

According to the Accountant General Department of the Finance Ministry, Israel has spent 6.8 billion shekels ($1.82 billion) on its displaced residents – a figure which includes both the funding for hotels for those who have left their homes and direct payments to the residents themselves.

 

[wco81]

So there's talk about permanent end to hostilities, presumably involving Hamas forswearing any hostile actions against Israel.


Netanyahu wouldn't accept a permanent cease fire under those conditions would he?

He promised to eliminate Hamas. Even if Hamas disbanded, he's going to want to punish every Hamas member who was part of the organization on Oct 7.

He may be toast politically in Israel but the only chance he has to hold onto power and stay out of prison is to ruthlessly kill every Hamas member he can, whether or not they lay down their arms and swear that they recognize the right of Israel to exist.

 

[Shavano]

Government funding for residents who were officially evacuated from northern Israel due to the conflict with Hezbollah expire July 7. This was the date that was originally set for when the conflict would be over. A one billion shekel ($250 million) proposal was submitted to Smotrich to continue the funding through the end of August. The government is expected to meet on the day it expires to decide on where the funding will come from.

The article provides some background on the amount of money needed (though I am unclear if this is for evacuees from around Gaza in addition to the north). The proposal is getting backlash due to cutting already earmarked funds for various coalition/political purposes:

How many shekels for the civilians whose homes they destroyed in Gaza?

 

[N35t0r]

How many shekels for the civilians whose homes they destroyed in Gaza?

That's a trick question: there were no civilians in Gaza, only Hamas.
/poe

 

[AbidingArs]

Haaretz has received documents that confirm what some in this thread and the previous thread suspected: Israel issued the Hannibal order on October 7th. Although Haaretz does not know how many (if any) soldiers or civilians were injured or killed due to this, it was pervasive enough that many were at risk. Assuming I'm following it correctly, the story lays out the following timeline:

6:43 AM, division commander Brig. Gen. Avi Rosenfeld declares that "the Philistines have invaded," which Haaretz explains as "the procedure when an enemy invades Israeli territory, upon which a division commander can assume extraordinary authority, including the employment of heavy fire inside Israeli territory, in order to block an enemy raid." A very senior IDF source confirmed that Rosenfeld did not issue the Hannibal order and said that perhaps post-war investigations will establish who did so (though from some of the later, it is unclear if this might just mean that the intent was there even if the word Hannibal was never used).

At 7:18 AM, an observation post at the Yiftah outpost reports a kidnapping at Erez border crossing. Divisional headquarters issues a Hannibal command and the order to dispatch a Zik, an unmanned assault drone.

7:41 AM: Another Hannibal order for Erez was issued.

10:19 AM: A Zik attacked the Re'im base, where divisional headquarters were located. A second drone attack happened three minutes later. At the same time, Shaldag commando forces were on the base fighting the terrorists; it is unclear whether one of the commandos was injured in a drone attack but a message was sent to ensure that no soldier was outdoors as IDF forces were about to enter to combat any terrorists.

10:32 AM: All battalions in the area were ordered, apparently by Rosenfeld, to fire mortars in the direction of the Gaza Strip, despite not knowing the location of soldiers and civilians in the area.

11:22 AM: An order goes out to not allow any vehicle to return to Gaza.

"Everyone knew by then that such vehicles could be carrying kidnapped civilians or soldiers," a source in Southern Command told Haaretz. "There was no case in which a vehicle carrying kidnapped people was knowingly attacked, but you couldn't really know if there were any such people in a vehicle. I can't say there was a clear instruction, but everyone knew what it meant to not let any vehicles return to Gaza."

2 PM: All forces are ordered not to exit border communities toward the west (the border), emphasizing not to chase terrorists. The border area is under intense fire, with the goal of turning the area around the border fence into a killing zone.

6:40 PM: Military intelligence believes that terrorists in Kibbutz Be'eri, Kfar Azza, and Kissufin intend to link up and flee back into Gaza together. The army launches artillery at the border fence area, very close to some of these communities, and fires shells at the Erez border crossing.

A little after 7 PM: Only tangentionally covered in the article, a tank operating under the orders of Brig. Gen. Hiram Barak fires two shells at a house in Be'eri; the first into the ground and the second into the upper beams of the house. Accounts conflict after that but the end result is that one hostage is rescued and thirteen are found dead (though I do not thinkit has been determined yet the cause of death). Barak would go on blow up a building of Israa University in Gaza without authorization. The way that the IDF operated seems relevant to the debate on his actions in Be'eri.

9:33 PM: An order was given to close of the whole border with tanks. All forces in the area are given permission to fire on anyone approaching the border with no restriction.

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

"Better that we kill you ourselves than have to negotiate your safe return."

 

[Happysin]

"Better that we kill you ourselves than have to negotiate your safe return."

Kinda the Russia RoE when it comes to hostages.

 

[NewNinetyNine]

It looks like the ceasefire is in poor shape: Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal

However, David Barnea, the chief of the Mossad foreign intelligence service, who was dispatched over the weekend to Qatar, where talks are being held, was reported to have provided the mediators with a list of new reservations, according to Israeli media.

The Haaretz newspaper cited a source familiar with the details as saying Israel’s new demands were expected to delay negotiations, and that it was not clear whether Hamas would accede to them.

“Hamas has already agreed to the latest position presented by Israel,” the source told Haaretz. “But in Friday’s meeting, Israel presented some new points it demands that Hamas accept.”

Negotiations with Hamas were expected to last “at least three weeks” before the deal could be carried out, Haaretz reported.

Once again, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing criticism from opposition parties, media and families of Israeli hostages, who accuse him of undermining efforts to reach a ceasefire and secure the release of the hostages, for his own political survival.

I'm sure that Blinken will be trotted out soon and chastise Hamas for not accepting the ceasefire. Hands will wring, but no pressure will be applied to Netanyahu.


An update on the ICC case: The ICC charged Israeli officials with starving Gaza. What happens now?

Washington has cooperated with the ICC on past cases and applauded its efforts to hold Russian officials accountable for the war in Ukraine but has been highly critical of its approach to the war in Gaza.

“Whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas,” President Biden said in a statement on May 20, when Khan announced he was also pursuing arrest warrants for war crimes committed by Palestinian militant leaders. “We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.”
But U.S. officials have also repeatedly criticized Israel for failing to facilitate aid deliveries and protect humanitarian workers: “This conflict has been one of the worst in recent memory in terms of how many aid workers have been killed,” Biden said in early April after a deadly strike on a World Central Kitchen convoy. “This is a major reason why distributing humanitarian aid in Gaza has been so difficult.”

It was darkly humorous that the usual parties were beating wounded breasts about how terrible it was that Israel and Hamas were charged at the same time instead of addressing...the war crimes.

In legal terms, “the fact base of the case is quite tight,” said Yousuf Syed Khan of the Atlantic Council, who led the drafting of the first report by a U.N.-mandated panel on starvation as a method of warfare.

What makes this case stand out, Khan said, is not just the rapidly deteriorating situation on the ground in Gaza, but also “official statements by the two individuals being charged.”

The ICC’s founding statute lists “intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare” as a potential war crime, meaning that a prosecutor must establish that food and other staples are being deliberately withheld from the civilian population. Statements from senior Israeli officials articulating a plan to seal off Gaza from the outside world, despite the dependence of its 2.2 million people on international aid, date back to the earliest weeks of the war.
The conflict began on Oct. 7 after Hamas-led militants burst into southern Israel and killed about 1,200 people, most of them civilians.

Two days later, Gallant declared on video that he had ordered a “full siege” of Gaza. “No electricity, no food, no fuel,” he said. “We are fighting animals, and we will act accordingly.”

On Oct. 18, Netanyahu said Israel would not allow humanitarian assistance into Gaza until Hamas released the more than 250 hostages it had taken during their attack. Israel eventually relented under U.S. pressure, but aid deliveries have remained far below prewar levels.
“Intent is a mental state and is never really on its own visible,” said Janina Dill, professor of global security at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government. But the comments by Netanyahu and Gallant suggest “there is an official policy, a plan, to deprive the people of Gaza of sustenance.”

“The strongest link now between intent in these statements and the notion of a policy is the continued impediment of humanitarian aid,” she said.

Ironclad case vs. massive bias; let's see what happens...

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

It looks like the ceasefire is in poor shape: Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal

However, David Barnea, the chief of the Mossad foreign intelligence service, who was dispatched over the weekend to Qatar, where talks are being held, was reported to have provided the mediators with a list of new reservations, according to Israeli media.

The Haaretz newspaper cited a source familiar with the details as saying Israel’s new demands were expected to delay negotiations, and that it was not clear whether Hamas would accede to them.

“Hamas has already agreed to the latest position presented by Israel,” the source told Haaretz. “But in Friday’s meeting, Israel presented some new points it demands that Hamas accept.”

Negotiations with Hamas were expected to last “at least three weeks” before the deal could be carried out, Haaretz reported.

Once again, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing criticism from opposition parties, media and families of Israeli hostages, who accuse him of undermining efforts to reach a ceasefire and secure the release of the hostages, for his own political survival.

I'm sure that Blinken will be trotted out soon and chastise Hamas for not accepting the ceasefire. Hands will wring, but no pressure will be applied to Netanyahu.

Given what's been revealed about the Hannibal protocol, Israel's indiscriminate bombing of suspected Hamas sites makes a lot more sense. They don't want to be in a position to negotiate for the hostages' returns. If they can kill them with an air strike, who's to say Hamas didn't off them first? I'm even starting to be suspicious about the incident where hostages trying to surrender where gunned down. Netanyahu's allergy to negotiating in good faith seems of a piece with this attitude towards hostages.

 

[Happysin]

So, my brain was so far down the hole on things, when I saw 'reservations', my first thought was "Does the West Bank not count?" Then only after that realized that's a uniquely American use of the word.

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

Israel's government told the High Court of Justice that it will establish a system so that very sick patients in Gaza can leave through Egypt to receive treatment abroad.

...never to return. Ethnic cleansing is easier if they do it for you.

Kinda the Russia RoE when it comes to hostages.

Alfa Group: 186 hostages, 20 terrorists, 215 bodybags. Mission Successful.

 

[Soriak]

What’s the food supply issue into Gaza at this point? A few months ago, there were dire warnings about famine and mass starvation… but the conflict seems to have dropped out of the US news, displaced by election coverage. Did that just get resolved? Was it hyperbole from the start? Or are people starving now and nobody is reporting on it?

 

[Megalodon]

What’s the food supply issue into Gaza at this point? A few months ago, there were dire warnings about famine and mass starvation… but the conflict seems to have dropped out of the US news, displaced by election coverage. Did that just get resolved? Was it hyperbole from the start? Or are people starving now and nobody is reporting on it?

There's a paper in The Lancet that estimates 7.9% of the pre-10/7 population has died. A proper accounting is not possible as long as Israel's attacks are ongoing, and may never be possible. Some might object to estimates like this but under the circumstances I don't think Israel is entitled to estimates being strictly limited to confirmed deaths.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

 

[wireframed]

What’s the food supply issue into Gaza at this point? A few months ago, there were dire warnings about famine and mass starvation… but the conflict seems to have dropped out of the US news, displaced by election coverage. Did that just get resolved? Was it hyperbole from the start? Or are people starving now and nobody is reporting on it?

Given we are some 50-60 THOUSAND truck loads short of what supplies would normally have been delivered in the time since the attack, and that Gaza wasn’t exactly overflowing with food and supplies, I think it’s safe to say the situation is beyond dire.

No, I don’t think everyone suddenly became healthy and well-fed in the period where US election coverage dominated the news. That would be silly to assume.

 

[Soriak]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

I don't understand this paper... here's the relevant quote:

In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7.9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.10

So they just multiply the official number by 5 and publish a correspondence article in a top medical journal? I'm in the wrong field of research...

Given we are some 50-60 THOUSAND truck loads short of what supplies would normally have been delivered in the time since the attack, and that Gaza wasn’t exactly overflowing with food and supplies, I think it’s safe to say the situation is beyond dire.

That's also what I would have expected. We've seen a lot of social media posts coming out of Gaza in this war... why not about this?

 

[LizandreBZH]

What is difficult to understand ? They apply a small multiplying factor derived from the experience of past conflicts. And they use a small one. The nature of these indirect deaths is described in the article.

 

[wireframed]

What is difficult to understand ? They apply a small multiplying factor derived from the experience of past conflicts. And they use a small one. The nature of these indirect deaths is described in the article.

Yes, the difficulty is not in multiplying official numbers with a number, it’s gathering the data to understand what the range is, and documenting it.

 

[AbidingArs]

On the famine situation, in early June, Haaretz had an article on the the United Nations Famine Review Committee published report on famine in north Gaza. The report the article reviews was here; it looks like there is a more recent report here. Reading these and some other stories, the impression I get is that the situation has improved in northern Gaza as fighting there reduced and aid was brought in, but the situation in the south has declined as the Philadelphia corridor has been closed and the fighting in Rafah intensified.

From the executive summary of the more recent report:

Following the publication of the second FRC report on 18 March 2024, which projected that a Famine would occur in the most likely scenario, a number of important developments occurred. In contrast with the assumptions made for the projection period (March – July 2024), the amount of food and non-food commodities allowed into the northern governorates increased. Additionally, the response in the nutrition, water sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and health sectors was scaled up. In this context, the available evidence does not indicate that Famine is currently occurring.

However, the situation in Gaza remains catastrophic and there is a high and sustained risk of Famine across the whole Gaza Strip. It is important to note that the probable improvement in nutrition status noted in April and May should not allow room for complacency about the risk of Famine in the coming weeks and months. The prolonged nature of the crisis means that this risk remains at least as high as at any time during the past few months.

The FRC encourages all stakeholders who use the IPC for high-level decision-making to understand that whether a Famine classification is confirmed or not does not in any manner change the fact that extreme human suffering is without a doubt currently ongoing in the Gaza Strip, and does not change the immediate humanitarian imperative to address this civilian suffering by enabling complete, safe, unhindered, and sustained humanitarian access into and throughout the Gaza Strip, including through ceasing hostilities. All actors should not wait until a Famine classification is made to act accordingly.

They have this explanation for the June 4 report:

In May, FEWS NET conducted an IPC-Compatible analysis of the food security situation and found that it is possible famine was ongoing in northern Gaza during April. In line with IPC protocols, the FRC reviewed this analysis and concluded that, given the uncertainty and lack of convergence of the supporting evidence employed in the analysis, it was unable to make a determination as to whether or not famine thresholds have been passed during April. Therefore, the FRC was unable to endorse the FEWS NET analysis. The FEWS NET report and the FRC report were both published on 4 June.

On June 26, there was a small item on the food situation in north Gaza:

An influx of aid appears to have eased a hunger crisis in northern Gaza for now, but the entire territory remains at "high risk" of famine, a draft report by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification said. More than 495,000 people, more than 20% of Gaza's population of 2.3 million, are expected to experience the highest level of starvation in the coming months, the report said.

 

[Shavano]

famine is a technical term as the UN uses it:

“We say there is a famine when three conditions come together in a specific geographic area, whether a town, village, city, even a country,” WFP’s Mr. Husain explained.

• At least 20 per cent of the population in that particular area are facing extreme levels of hunger;
• 30 per cent of the children in the same place are wasted, or too thin for their height; and
• The death – or mortality – rate has doubled, from the average, surpassing two deaths per 10,000 daily for adults and four deaths per 10,000 daily for children.

“You can clearly see that in a way, famine is admission of collective failure,” he said. “We should act way before the famine, so people don’t starve, children are not wasted and people don’t die of hunger-related causes.”

Evaluating whether UN defined famine is occuring can be technically impossible in an active war zone, because it requires data gathering that might not even be possible within an area under fire. But it would be clearly wrong to say we haven't been hearing in the news of conditions that indicate famine.

 

[Imbrium]

Things in the West Bank continue to deteriorate due to actions of Israeli settlers:

Illegal Israeli immigrants continue burning Palestinian farmland

Illegal Israeli immigrants to Palestine have begun construction of a road west of Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank as they continue to set fires to Palestinian crops under the protection of the Israeli army.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

Too bad those are one set of illegal immigrants the usually xenophobic right-wing in the US will fall all over themselves to support.

 

[The Aloof Alot]

Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to undermine any ceasefire attempts in Gaza:

Thousands of Palestinians flee amid heavy Israeli attack on Gaza City

Civil emergency service says dozens killed in strikes launched after Israeli military issued evacuation orders

www.theguardian.com

 

[Imbrium]

Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to undermine any ceasefire attempts in Gaza:

Thousands of Palestinians flee amid heavy Israeli attack on Gaza City

Civil emergency service says dozens killed in strikes launched after Israeli military issued evacuation orders

www.theguardian.com

Makes you wonder who the real terrorists are.

 

[The Sheep Look Up]

Makes you wonder who the real terrorists are.

Based upon the definition, "Using violence and threats of violence against a civilian populace to achieve a political or ideological outcome," I'm gonna go with "Yes".

 

[NewNinetyNine]

Random thought: If Biden's calls with Netanyahu are anything like that debate, it would explain why the latter is walking all over the former.

 

[The Aloof Alot]

Meanwhile, Biden demonstrates a fine case of hypocrisy with regards to the Ukraine hospital strike, which apparently is a huge problem. If only the very similar and regular similar strikes on Gaza hospitals were as much of a problem...

 

[NewNinetyNine]

Meanwhile, Biden demonstrates a fine case of hypocrisy with regards to the Ukraine hospital strike, which apparently is a huge problem. If only the very similar and regular similar strikes on Gaza hospitals were as much of a problem...

Well, he clearly believes that Ukraine is full of human beings, so it's a different metric entirely.

 

[Imbrium]

Random thought: If Biden's calls with Netanyahu are anything like that debate, it would explain why the latter is walking all over the former.

Netanyahu has been walking over US presidents for years. It's something of a hobby for him. Makes him look good at home, and he suffers absolutely no consequences for doing so.

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

This guy tried to make the Perpetual Trump thread about Biden's debate. He's just spewing over the forum wherever he thinks he can get away with it.

 

[SunRaven01]

This guy tried to make the Perpetual Trump thread about Biden's debate. He's just spewing over the forum wherever he thinks he can get away with it.

 

[Hangfire]

Well, he clearly believes that Ukraine is full of human beings, so it's a different metric entirely.

This isn't a thread about Biden, stop feeding the trolls, also it's a trivial argument to counter like so.

The issue isn't what Biden believes but what the body politic of the USA feels about Israel vs Ukraine.

Who’s in Charge of the IDF?

Evidence is growing of a command and control problem.

foreignpolicy.com

Here are a handful of cases that most clearly suggest the command and control problems.

First, the Israeli military has blamed midlevel officers for the killing of seven World Central Kitchen volunteers in an early April drone strike. Numerous experts and nongovernmental organizations have noted the need for better coordination processes between humanitarian organizations and the IDF. Statements from the Israeli military and Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (an Israeli governmental body responsible for implementing Israeli policies in the West Bank and Gaza Strip) indicate that World Central Kitchen properly coordinated its movements with the IDF but midlevel commanders made the decision to fire anyway. This suggests that the Israeli military’s command and control structures are not as strong as they ought to be.

Second, in late February, IDF Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi publicly urged his soldiers not to film themselves committing war crimes. As has been well covered, Israeli troops have engaged extensively in this behavior for months, documenting these violations themselves on social media. This suggests that the Israeli military is having significant problems maintaining discipline. The fact that such behavior has continued despite Halevi’s admonitions only strengthens this interpretation.

Furthermore

despite Israeli attempts to frame the country’s military as one of the most professional in the world, it is ultimately made up of conscripts, due to the country’s Defense Service Law. In this way, it is closer to the Russian military than that of the United States. Conscript armies are known for being less disciplined than their professionalized counterparts; consider the U.S. experience in Vietnam.

With Israel’s heavy reliance on its reservists—who, as a rule, are far less well trained than their American counterparts (U.S. reservists are required to train at least 38 days per year, whereas only 6 percent of Israeli military reservists meet the required 20 days of service over three years)—it is no wonder that discipline is a significant problem. Combine that with Israel’s younger, weaker officer corps than that found in the U.S. military, and it is hardly surprising that the IDF has command and control problems.

I'm so utterly shocked and surprised that a shitbag conscript army fights like a bunch of shitbags and that there is no real command and control over the units.

Some will argue that it is not and that the atrocities outlined above are the result of a few bad actors and/or mistakes. But states are legally responsible for their soldiers’ action. This stance also suggests that the Israeli government is ineffective at managing troops and by extension the war. It therefore cannot be trusted with U.S. weapons, both because of the risk of Israel’s commission of war crimes and its reckless actions that could further expand the conflict throughout the region, as seen in the April escalation with Iran and the ongoing escalation with Hezbollah.

I wouldn't suggest it, I'd outright state it. The IDF ground forces are a mob of thugs and the commanders haven't got a fucking clue as to how to properly control that mob of shitbags.