EU and climate change

The European Union is a party to both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),the Kyoto Protocol (KP) and the Paris Agreement. For the first commitment period of the KP (2008-2012) the EU15 took on a common target, to reduce emissions by 8 per cent compared to 1990. For the second commitment period of the KP (2013-2020) the EU27 have agreed to common emission reductions of 20 per cent compared to 1990 levels. For the Paris Agreement the EU agreed to reduce emissions by -55% until 2030.

Overall, industrial countries (Annex 1 UNFCCC) that participated in the Second Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol largely overachieved their collective target and achieved a reduction of their 2013-2020 greenhouse gas emissions by almost 30% as compared to their base year emissions. This corresponds to an overall emission reduction of by almost 33% in 2020 (compared to 1990 emissions) in these 37 countries. This compares to a reduction by close to 19% in all industrialized (Annex 1 UNFCCC) countries (with an emission reduction of 10% in A1 countries without a KP commitment).

>> Further reading

Climate Action Network Europe, network of more than 200 environmental organisations, gives updated reports on EU climate and energy policy. (external link)

Transport & Environment, environmental umbrella organisation that describes and comments on current EU transport policy. (external link)

European Environment Agency. Regular reports on emissions in relation to set aims. (external link) 

Eurostat Information (external link)

European Commission (external link)

European Green Deal (external link)

European Climate Law (external link)

 

>> Further reading in AirClim publications:

AirClim and EU climate and energy targets, mitigation strategies, scenarios publications

EU climate targets aligned with the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C objective

With climate impacts happening all around, governments are expected to increase action to limit greenhouse gas emissions and subsequent temperature rise. The longer we delay transformative action, the more substantial and challenging the necessary greenhouse gas emission cuts will need to be. This also applies to the EU. This paper aims to look at the implications of current EU policies and targets on the EU’s carbon budget, the processes to set or update the EU’s 2030, 2035 and 2040 targets, and highlights the need for much more ambition in target setting if the EU is to make a fair share to the global efforts to limit dangerous climate change.

Climate neutrality, Energy security and Sustainability - A pathway to bridge the gap through Sufficiency, Efficiency and Renewables

This report is the result of 4 years of collaborative work between European experts from the academia and civil society of 20+ European countries, under the leadership of the négaWatt Association. The CLEVER scenario, which covers 30 countries (EU27 plus United-Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland2 ), is based on a unique approach that combines sufficiency, efficiency and renewables and aims to reconcile longterm climate and sustainability imperatives with short-term energy security constraints.

No further discussion needed. The agreed global goal is to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C

The agreed global goal is to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. Now countries must act to make this happen. This briefing explains the scientific and political process which led to countries committing explicitly to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. Instrumental to these decisions was a process called: the Periodic Review of the long-term global goal under the Convention and of overall progress towards achieving it (PR2). The briefing also gives an overview how the Kyoto Protocol was implemented and which greenhouse gas reductions were achieved.

1.5°C Pathways for the EU27: accelerating climate action to deliver the Paris Agreement

This report presents technically feasible 1.5°C compatible energy and emissions pathways for the EU27 and assesses whether the EU’s current 2030 climate targets are aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The report finds that, to be 1.5°C compatible, the EU27 would need to cut its domestic emissions faster than currently planned.

1.5°C Pathways for the Council of Europe: accelerating climate action to deliver the Paris Agreement

Global action remains insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Increasing the ambition of 2030 climate targets and accelerating emissions reductions in this decade are essential. This report presents technically feasible 1.5°C compatible energy and emissions pathways for the group of countries that make up the Council of Europe (CoE), and assesses whether CoE member states’ current 2030 climate targets (the Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) are collectively aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The report finds that, to be 1.5°C compatible, CoE member states would need to cut their domestic emissions faster than currently planned. Pathways compatible with 1.5°C and filtered to meet sustainability constraints were analysed in this report.

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Failing to achieve 1.5°C puts a huge economic burden on our (grand)children

Short briefing which calculates, based on methodology developed by the London School of Economics, what the costs of action and inaction would be for several EU scenarios. The briefing finds that current policies would lead to a GDP loss of 7.11%/year by 2100, while implementing the Fit for 55 proposals would lead to an annual loss of 2.58%. Opting for a real 1.5°C compatible pathway on the other hand would lead to an increase of GDP of 0.84%. The benefits of increasing ambition are thus also important in economic terms. In particular for future generations as they will foot the bill of our inaction.

Policy implications of Europe’s dwindling carbon budget

Policy implications of Europe’s dwindling carbon budget

Defining 1.5°C compatible CO2 targets and climate finance responsibilities for a range of European countries This briefing aims to contribute to the discussion on the potential application of carbon budgets in the policy debate by identifying both emission reduction targets and climate finance responsibilities for 42 European countries based on a 1.5°C compatible global carbon budget.

The EU too must revisit its 2030 climate pledge (NDC ) as -55% is not compatible with 1.5°C

The EU too must revisit its 2030 climate pledge (NDC ) as -55% is not compatible with 1.5°C

This briefing highlights why the EU needs to reduce its emissions well beyond 55% in order to contribute its fair share to the global effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C as envisaged by the Paris Agreement.

Making the EU ETS and ESR legislation compatible with the Paris Agreement

Making the EU ETS and ESR legislation compatible with the Paris Agreement

In the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries engaged “to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”, as going beyond that threshold would bring dangerous and irreversible impacts. Multiple assessments have made it clear that we are currently not on track to achieve this objective and are heading towards a 2.5°C temperature rise. Two important EU instruments to do this are currently being revised: The Emissions Trading System (ETS) governing emission reductions in the power and industry sectors by limiting emissions from around 10,000 major emitting installations; The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) which sets targets for each Member State to limit emissions not covered by the ETS (mainly in the agriculture, buildings, road transport and waste sectors). This paper looks at possible scenarios to bring the ETS and ESR in line with 1.5°C compatible carbon budgets.

Counting the numbers: EU carbon budget not compatible with 1.5°C target

Counting the numbers: EU carbon budget not compatible with 1.5°C target

Since the IPCC’s first publication of global carbon budget estimates, huge scientific progress has been made to tackle the uncertainties in the use of this concept. The latest numbers as contained in the WG I contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report are now much more robust. This briefing calculates the EU’s carbon budget under currently agreed targets and compares this to the remaining global carbon budget.

Temperature overshoot The concept of temporarily going beyond 1.5°C

Temperature overshoot The concept of temporarily going beyond 1.5°C

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to make an effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C as going beyond that temperature limit would bring severe negative impacts, in particular for those most vulnerable. While not explicit in the text, it is generally understood that the objective is to ensure temperature rise is limited to 1.5°C by 2100. As substantial climate action has been delayed over and over again, almost all 1.5°C consistent scientific pathways for the future foresee peak temperatures potentially going beyond 1.5°C during the course of the century, with temperatures being reduced to 1.5°C or below by 2100. This concept of average temperature rise going temporarily beyond 1.5°C and then being reduced is referred to as temperature overshoot. This briefing explains and discusses this concept and the risks.

Sweden Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Sweden.

Spain Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Spain.

Romania Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Romania.

Portugal Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Portugal.

Poland Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Poland.

Italy Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Italy.

Germany Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Germany.

France Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for France.

Denmark Country Factsheet: 1.5°C Pathways for Europe

The aim of the 1.5°C Pathways for Europe Project is to derive Paris Agreement compatible emissions and energy mix pathways for key European countries. The project seeks to highlight existing scenarios that demonstrate that a very high level of ambition on climate and energy policy is possible for the European Union. Here are presented such possible pathways for Denmark.

1.5°C Pathways for Europe: Achieving the highest plausible climate ambition

This report presents domestic emissions and energy mix pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal for the EU27 and nine Member States, and assesses if their current 2030 climate targets are in line with these pathways. To date, governments have submitted inadequate and unambitious national climate targets that are not sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal according to the latest available science. Authors Experts from Climate Analytics: Ryan Wilson, Lara Welder, Alexandre Delfosse, Jonas Hörsch, Deborah Ramalope, Matthew Gidden, Bill Hare.

Phasing out fossil gas power stations in Europe by 2030

Presenting a list of 142 gas-fired power stations in the EU and the UK that should be closed or not commissioned within the next 10 years. Chapters: CCS no option; Gas power easier to turn off; Security issues for gas; Environmental cost of gas; Economic cost of fossil gas; The worst gas power plants - where to find them; Detailed analysis up to national NGOs; The largest operating gas power plants in Europe, ie those of >500 megawatt electric capacity; Planned gas power plants in Europe; Power plants under construction in Europe.

Phasing out coal in Europe by 2025

An updated list of coal power stations throughout Europe and a proposal of phasing out coal by 2025.  

What will it take to phase out greenhouse gas emissions from road traffic in the Nordic-Baltic region by 2030–2035?

A conceivable scenario in which the climate impact of road traffic in the Nordic and Baltic countries is reduced to almost zero by the year 2035.

A vision for zero carbon emissions in the Nordic-Baltic region by about 2030

The Nordic-Baltic region can manage without any CO2 emissions from the electricity, heat and industrial sectors by 2030.

The 10 best climate mitigation measures in Northern Europe

Ranking of best climate policy measures in the region.

AirClim and EU ETS (EU emission trading system) publications

The EU as a Normative Power?

Fighting greenwashing and promoting the integrity of corporate climate action within and outside Article 6 of the Paris Agreement This policy brief explores different options for the EU to promote the integrity of corporate climate action through activities within as well as outside the EU and partially making use of the Article 6 infrastructure. Taking into consideration the new framework conditions established with the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the paper outlines different options of how the EU could push towards more integrity and fight greenwashing.

Cover Emissions trading system for road transport and buildings in the policy mix for achieving climate neutrality in the EU.

Emissions trading system for road transport and buildings in the policy mix for achieving climate neutrality in the EU.

This policy brief provides an overview of the proposals for the ETS-2 covering road transport and buildings. The amendments and guidance by the European Parliament and the Council are assessed and compared to the proposal by the European Commission. In addition, we provide recommendations for each assessed issue to enhance the effectiveness of the ETS while trying to minimise practical obstacles which would impede its introduction.

Why the EU must strengthen its Climate target

There are multiple arguments for why the EU'S 2030 climate target aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% is not compatible with the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. The EU thus will need to look at how it can do more. Substantial additional action in all economic sectors and in all EU Member States is needed and possible. Even while substantial reductions - well beyond the 2020 target - have been achieved in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), also the sectors covered by this legislation can do much more. This can be facilitated by a number of improvements of the ETS Directive, including through rebasing emission levels to actual levels of emissions and by increasing the annual linear reduction factor.

Speeding up the decarbonisation of European industry

In July 2021, the European Commission launched the Fit for 55 package to step up in Climate Ambition, as part of the European Green Deal. This study analysis what this package would mean for the most carbon intensive industrial sectors and what type of policy support is required to assure that industry would contribute to the overall reductions and remain competitive in the long run.

Strengthening EU climate policies

This discussion paper analysis possible options for strengthening EU climate policies by phasing out the worst industrial emitters, promoting alternative production methods for steel, iron and cement industries, introducing strict rules for the inclusion of further economic sectors in emission trading, allowing CO2 tax systems at national level to complement ETS systems, setting up an innovation fund which focuses on renewable energy and energy efficiency and saving. The briefing also provides a critical analysis of current CCS and CDR projects around the world and presents the policy statements of CAN International.

Briefing on the proposal to integrate maritime transport in the EU ETS

This policy brief provides an overview of the proposal by the European Commission to reform the EU ETS from July 2021. The proposal foresees the extension of the existing EU ETS to maritime transport by amending the Emissions Trading Directive (Directive 2003/87/EC) and by adjusting the EU MRV Regulation (2015/757). The proposal is part of the Fit-for-55 package, which also includes other proposals addressing the maritime sector, such as the FuelEU Maritime Initiative. Our policy brief outlines the importance of addressing maritime transport emissions, evaluates the proposal and puts it into context with developments on a global level.

The Revision of the European Union Emissions Trading System Directive: Assessing Cap and Market Stability Reserve Reform Options

The main objective of this study is to assess as reliably as possible whether the emission reduction target for 2030 can be achieved or exceeded, taking into account the corresponding uncertainties. The analysis is carried out for different options for cap and Market Stability Reserve (MSR) provisions. Chapter 2 discusses a range of baseline emission trends. Chapter 3.1 discusses the current legislative proposals for adjusting the cap of the EU ETS in the context of the new emission reduction target of 55% for the total greenhouse gas emissions of the EU 27. Chapter 3.2 examines the changes to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) that were proposed. In chapter 4 options for a more stringent design of the EU ETS provisions for the cap (chapter 4.1) as well as the MSR (chapter 4.2) are analysed and discussed. In chapter 0, key conclusions from the structural and numerical analysis are drawn.