‘Global warming’s given every human one month of extra-hot days — India is living this right now’
Andrew Pershing is VP for science at Climate Central, Princeton. Speaking to Srijana Mitra Das at Times Evoke, he links the rise of very hot days — to climate change:
What is the core of your research?
I am a climate scientist and oceanographer. Climate Central, my organisation, a non-profit group of scientists and communicators, works on global climate science research and reportage. With data, technology and collaborations, we help people understand what living on a warming planet means.
Can you discuss your new findings on extra hot days worldwide?
This study, conducted in collaboration with International Red Cross and Red Crescent and World Weather Attribution, focused on locally hot temperatures, formally defined as the top 10% of temperatures which could occur at a place, based on the last 30 years. Finding that threshold, we totalled the number of days above this for every location on Earth between May 2023 to May 2024. We also used our attribution system to see how many such days there would’ve been in a world free of human-caused global warming — subtracting that, we found the average human on Earth last year experienced 26 to 31 days — a month of extra-hot days — due to such climate change. These impacts vary. For countries near the equator, in the tropical band, many more such days were added — in places like Indonesia or Rwanda, these could be over four months of extra-hot days. Our study reflects how the experience differs, depending on which part of the world you are in and how this is decoupled from the places which caused the most emissions — the United States, Europe and China tended to have slightly less than one month, though these are most responsible.
India has undergone many heatwaves recently and our attribution studies research climate change’s role in these. This year, through our Climate Shift Index, where we look at every day’s temperature and calculate how much more or less likely this was due to climate change, we’ve seen a lot of signals — last weekend in Delhi, numbers indicated two to three times more likely.
What climate trends are globally key?
Extreme heat will be a prominent feature — India is living through this right now. We’ve seen major precipitation events, including the recent rainfall in Dubai. This is a big part of the climate story — as you warm the atmosphere, it can hold more water vapour and so, the potential for bigger rain events grows. Another trend showing in our data is how just about everywhere on Earth, there is warming in the day — and even more during the night. That is related partly to water vapour in the air which can hold onto heat overnight as well.
How are non-human animals faring?
We’re seeing widespread coral bleaching. Corals are animals — when you warm them up beyond temperatures they are used to, they lose their colour. That affects the entire marine ecosystem. This started in the Caribbean last year and occurred in the Great Barrier Reef through the Austral summer. Terrestrial animals are also deeply impacted. Howler monkeys in Mexico are facing a very harsh heatwave. Many faint and fall out of trees, even perishing. The natural world is suffering severe impacts of warming, which we are under-counting.
What weather is the US experiencing?
Many parts are seeing extreme heat, southern states like Arizona and Texas even reaching 45 degrees. In south-eastern states like Florida, which have a moist climate, you’re getting uncomfortably persistent warmth. This year, northern states, where you’d normally expect temperatures below zero in winter, had many days above freezing. Also, the hurricane season, starting on 1st June, will be very powerful — the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the central Atlantic are unusually warm. That forebears much stronger storms.
Is climate change a political issue in America’s election year?
It is a big issue — but it’s also very polarised. One party has concerned members while the other’s policies don’t reflect such worry. Yet, there is strong agreement among citizens that climate change is very serious. People want to learn more and support lowering emissions — but we are in an environment where it is very challenging to talk about this.
What is the core of your research?
I am a climate scientist and oceanographer. Climate Central, my organisation, a non-profit group of scientists and communicators, works on global climate science research and reportage. With data, technology and collaborations, we help people understand what living on a warming planet means.
Can you discuss your new findings on extra hot days worldwide?
This study, conducted in collaboration with International Red Cross and Red Crescent and World Weather Attribution, focused on locally hot temperatures, formally defined as the top 10% of temperatures which could occur at a place, based on the last 30 years. Finding that threshold, we totalled the number of days above this for every location on Earth between May 2023 to May 2024. We also used our attribution system to see how many such days there would’ve been in a world free of human-caused global warming — subtracting that, we found the average human on Earth last year experienced 26 to 31 days — a month of extra-hot days — due to such climate change. These impacts vary. For countries near the equator, in the tropical band, many more such days were added — in places like Indonesia or Rwanda, these could be over four months of extra-hot days. Our study reflects how the experience differs, depending on which part of the world you are in and how this is decoupled from the places which caused the most emissions — the United States, Europe and China tended to have slightly less than one month, though these are most responsible.
How much of India’s current heatwave is due to climate change?
India has undergone many heatwaves recently and our attribution studies research climate change’s role in these. This year, through our Climate Shift Index, where we look at every day’s temperature and calculate how much more or less likely this was due to climate change, we’ve seen a lot of signals — last weekend in Delhi, numbers indicated two to three times more likely.
What climate trends are globally key?
Extreme heat will be a prominent feature — India is living through this right now. We’ve seen major precipitation events, including the recent rainfall in Dubai. This is a big part of the climate story — as you warm the atmosphere, it can hold more water vapour and so, the potential for bigger rain events grows. Another trend showing in our data is how just about everywhere on Earth, there is warming in the day — and even more during the night. That is related partly to water vapour in the air which can hold onto heat overnight as well.
How are non-human animals faring?
We’re seeing widespread coral bleaching. Corals are animals — when you warm them up beyond temperatures they are used to, they lose their colour. That affects the entire marine ecosystem. This started in the Caribbean last year and occurred in the Great Barrier Reef through the Austral summer. Terrestrial animals are also deeply impacted. Howler monkeys in Mexico are facing a very harsh heatwave. Many faint and fall out of trees, even perishing. The natural world is suffering severe impacts of warming, which we are under-counting.
What weather is the US experiencing?
Many parts are seeing extreme heat, southern states like Arizona and Texas even reaching 45 degrees. In south-eastern states like Florida, which have a moist climate, you’re getting uncomfortably persistent warmth. This year, northern states, where you’d normally expect temperatures below zero in winter, had many days above freezing. Also, the hurricane season, starting on 1st June, will be very powerful — the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the central Atlantic are unusually warm. That forebears much stronger storms.
Is climate change a political issue in America’s election year?
It is a big issue — but it’s also very polarised. One party has concerned members while the other’s policies don’t reflect such worry. Yet, there is strong agreement among citizens that climate change is very serious. People want to learn more and support lowering emissions — but we are in an environment where it is very challenging to talk about this.
Download
The Times of India News App for Latest India News
Subscribe
Start Your Daily Mornings with Times of India Newspaper! Order Now
All Comments ()+^ Back to Top
Refrain from posting comments that are obscene, defamatory or inflammatory, and do not indulge in personal attacks, name calling or inciting hatred against any community. Help us delete comments that do not follow these guidelines by marking them offensive. Let's work together to keep the conversation civil.
HIDE