ISRAEL UPDATE

Senator Cotton attended Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech, and shared with us his impressions. Iran's proxies, Senator Cotton said, do not threaten only Israel, they "threaten the entire US led international order." We also spoke about Israel's war in Gaza, this strange moment in American politics, the Woke, and finally Jefferson and Madison.

Mike and Gadi have already written Netanyahu's speech in their imagination to their own satisfaction – we'll soon see how well they've guessed. But one thing is not in doubt: Iran will be a major theme. Judging by the prime minister's recent public statements, he is going to describe Israel as standing at the forefront of the West's war against "Iran's axis of evil." This seems like a pretty obvious thing to say in the US, but in the context of the current administration's regional policy – it is anything but. Mike and Gadi explain why. Also: how will substituting Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate affect Israel? Bonus: Joe Biden vs. Thomas Sowell https://x.com/GadiTaub1/status/1815265490010292440

The failed assassination attempt on the former president will have vast consequences for the Middle East, some of which will be felt immediately. Israel, Mike argues, will have a freer hand to fight Hamas. A Trump victory however, with J. D. Vance as VP, will have far vaster effects on the region. Mike and Gadi discuss. Meanwhile, the incitement against PM Netanyahu crosses the line into a virtual calls for his assassination. Yet Israel's law enforcement seems not to have learned from the American lesson. Plus: a rift between Netanyahu and Gallant re the Philadelphi Corridor looms behind the attempt to reach a hostage deal with Hamas.

Our new episode, as well as the last one, is on YouTube. And while you're at it - please subscribe to our channel there. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG7Vh-hy0I0N5g3ZVpdwXmQ

The American presidential debate was a moment of truth – or lack thereof – for the press. It also has consequences for Israel and the Middle East. Mike and Gadi discuss. This week also saw an Israeli Supreme Court decision ordering the draft of all ultra-orthodox men. The decision is threatening the stability of Netanyahu's coalition. Mike and Gadi explain why this has become such a contested issue, and how religion, nationalism and progressivism define what Left and Right mean in Israel today. Then there is also a uniquely dumb take on the news. Join us and stay updated about Israel and its war.

Netanyahu's video message that called out the US on withholding arms from Israel succeeded – first the administration denied the facts, but then it opened the bureaucratic bottlenecks (see Mike's piece about this below). Few commentators, however, took note of the fact that there was a warning in that video – one which was later enhanced in Netanyahu's two major public statements this week. The war as the prime minister is now defining it, is a seven-front war with Iran. With a speech before a joint session of the two houses of congress scheduled for July 24, the administration must be worried that its Iran appeasement policy is in danger of being exposed. And all that, on the backdrop of the West's inability to fight wokeness, its autoimmune cultural disease. Mike and Gadi discuss the connection. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-italian-strike-israel-arms-shipments

The repeated attempts of the Biden administration to arrange a color revolution in Israel in order to topple Netanyahu's government are failing – partly because the Israeli "Resistance" is unable to muster more than a few thousand chronic Never-Bibi protestors. Israelis have no patience with people threatening to "paralyze the country" when so many are sending their sons and daughters to risk their lives in Gaza. Also: Gadi and Mike disagreed on whether IDF brass insubordination is becoming a real problem in Israel's ability to win the war.

A bold rescue operation Nuseirat; Benny Gantz quits the war time coalition; a UN Security Council resolution for a ceasefire and a hostage deal; steep escalation between Hezbollah and Israel in the north, and – if all this is not enough – a looming crisis for the coalition over drafting of ultra-orthodox men to the IDF. Gadi and Mike untangle these strands and conclude that for now Netanyahu's coalition is not on the verge of collapse, despite the Biden administration's best efforts.

A bold rescue operation Nuseirat; Benny Gantz quits the war time coalition; a UN Security Council resolution for a ceasefire and a hostage deal; steep escalation between Hezbollah and Israel in the north, and – if all this is not enough – a looming crisis for the coalition over drafting of ultra-orthodox men to the IDF. Gadi and Mike untangle these strands and conclude that for now Netanyahu's coalition is not on the verge of collapse, despite the Biden administration's best efforts.

President Biden made a dramatic speech on Friday announcing an Israeli offer for a far-reaching hostage deal. Prime Minster Netanyahu's response at first made it seem like Biden was distorting Israel's position beyond recognition. But then it turned out that the truth behind the move was far more complicated. Mike and Gadi unpack the calculations of the different parties. Also in this episode: the North is burning.

Turmoil in Israel over a video of a reservist soldier addressing Prime Minister Netanyahu, and telling him that the army his behind him, but also calling on Minister of Security Gallant to resign if he is not determined to win this war, and that if he does not, the army will not follow him. The press filled with outrage against this "sedition." An investigation was promptly launched. Meanwhile, the newly elected leader of the tiny Labor Party, General Yair Golan, called on reservists not to report to duty until the government calls for new elections. Mike and Gadi discuss. (We apologize for the poor sound quality on Gadi's side).

A whirlwind week in Israeli politics: Ministers Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz delivered two ultimatums to prime minister Netanyahu, threatening to dissolve the cabinet they are both still members of. Both held independent talks with high American officials prior to the move. Did they coordinate with the Americans, or with each other? Is the government about to be dissolved? And how will international arrest warrants from The Hague, against Netanyahu and Gallant, play out in Israeli politics? Mike and Gadi suggest ways to connect the dots.

Israel put its faith in building a small, Star Wars style, technological army. But that army was defeated on Oct. 7, by a Mad Max ragtag band of terrorists. Mike and Gadi discuss the failure of the IDF to adapt to this new Mad Max world. But in light of President Biden's threat to withhold weapons, Israel must not only change its military thinking, it also has to reform its war economics if it is to achieve what Mike and Can Kasapoglu call in a new piece in Tablet, "operational sovereignty." https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/gates-of-gaza Also in this episode: has Joe Biden taken his anti-Israeli policy one step too far?

The international media – like much of the Never-Bibi Israeli media – told you a story about Hamas greenlighting a hostage deal, only to have their new position met with an Israeli incursion into Rafah. What actually happened is very far from that media tale. The US and Hamas have been negotiating over Israel's head, with the American making promises Israel can't afford to keep. When Prime Minster Netanyahu understood what was going on, he moved to intercept the dangerous move. Here's what happened behind the scenes. Mike and Gadi explain. Also: what you need to know about how tough politicians conduct policy, and what they can learn from the bouncers in Tel-Aviv's roughest bars.

The Biden administration is pressing for an end to the war in a hostage deal, while working to topple Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It has many allies and tools in this effort: the threat to sanction an IDF unit, the looming specter of international arrest warrants from the Hauge, the Israeli anti-Netanyahu press and, from within the cabinet, an attempt by Benny Gantz to push for accepting a near-surrender hostage deal. At the same time, the right flank of Netanyahu's coalition has issued an ultimatum: should such a deal come to pass they will opt out and topple the coalition. Has Netanyahu reached the end of his rope? Mike and Gadi discuss.

IN-DEPTH SPECIAL WITH PROF. KOBI MICHAEL. Few people have so much experience with the Palestinians like Prof. Michael. He was there at the cradle of the Palestinian authority: he was the first commander of the Southern Israeli-Palestinian security coordination apparatus in the Gaza Strip and the commander of the Israeli-Palestinian security coordination apparatus in the West Bank. He is a former senior intelligence officer in the IDF, and has served as deputy director general and the head of the Palestinian division at the ministry of strategic affairs. He's also former head of the Palestinian division at the Israeli NSC. In this In Depth Special he lays out the Hamas-Iran multi-front strategy to defeat Israel. Prof. Michael is now a senior fellow at the INSS and the Misgav Institute.

Though Iran's attack was almost wholly intercepted, by the combined Israeli-American efforts, this was no victory over Iran. Mike explains why a defensive strategy can never defeat an offensive dominant one. Then there is also the high cost of the defense systems relative to cheapness and quantity of Iran's drones and missiles. Iran has also collected a great deal of intelligence about the systems it is facing. But above all it successfully changed the rules of the game - and the US has let it do so. It now remains to be seen how Israel will respond.

Last Thursday, President Biden had a very tense conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, demanding among other things, that the Israelis provide more humanitarian aid to Gazan civilians, and take concrete steps to achieve an immediate ceasefire, including by sending an empowered delegation to Cairo to negotiate a hostages-for-prisoners swap with Hamas. Several days later, the Israeli delegation appeared in Cairo to negotiate and, at the same time, the Israel Defense Forces announced the withdrawal of all of their maneuver forces from the Gaza Strip. Many observers speculate that the withdrawal came in response to American pressure. Israeli officials deny that claim, and Netanyahu has promised that an operation to take Rafah will definitely take place -- but will it? Mike Gadi -- like everyone else -- don't have clear answers to the question, but they have a number of thoughtful considerations about it.

The protest against Netanyahu is reaching a dangerous new level of violence, with a recent attempt to break through the barriers protecting his family's private residence. Ronen Bar, the director of Israel's security service, the Shabak, has warned that the protest is spilling over into the danger zone. Mike and Gadi can't help but wonder, though, why is anyone not charged with a crime here, and how many would have been charged if violent right-wing protesters tried to breach security around a left-wing politician's home. Plus: the strike that killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander has increased the danger of regional escalation to a level not seen yet since the beginning of the war.

The crisis in relations between Washington and Jerusalem intensified this week, when the Biden Administration refrained from vetoing the United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Although mainstream Israeli columnists, habitual critics of Prime Minister Netanyahu, reflexively blame him for the crisis, it is increasingly clear that the Biden administration opposes the military strategy in Gaza that most Israelis support. Gadi and Mike discuss the contradictory implications of the American policy. On the one hand, the crisis with Washington unites the country behind Netanyahu, but, on the other, it exacerbates domestic political controversies, such as the disagreements over a proposed law to draft ultra-orthodox men into the military. As Netanyahu navigates these treacherous crosscurrents, he faces what is perhaps the most perilous moment in his long career.

The ever more explicit attempts by the Democrats to remove Netanyahu from office repeatedly fail. There's a reason for that. Israelis don't like to feel that their bigger stronger ally is trying to dictate to them who will govern their country. They are even less hospitable to the idea that the US will try to force them into the two-state solution track. But Mike thinks the ongoing effort to oust Netanyahu may actually succeed. Meanwhile, Herzi Halevi, the IDF chief of staff completes a controversial army-wide round of appointments. Many see this as an attempt to save his own skin, since the appointees seem to subscribe to the same group-think that got us October 7, and may therefore be less critical of Halevi's colossal failure on that fateful Shabbat.

After discussing the growing tensions between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Gadi describes for Mike two research reports in Israel in which Palestinian officials brag about the numbers of their security personnel who participate in terror attacks against Israeli Jews. Still there are some veterans of Israel's security establishment who agree with the Biden administration's plan to hand Gaza over to a "reformed and revitalized" Palestinian Authority once the war ends. One such veteran is former Shin Bet (Shabak) chief Nadav Argaman, who recently said, "The Palestinian Authority is not a body that encourages terrorism." Gadi and Mike believe Argaman belongs to that segment of Israel's elite which, in sharp contrast to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sees getting along with Washington as more important than reflecting the will of the Israeli people, who overwhelmingly reject the Palestinian Authority as a partner for stabilizing Gaza. Links: For a discussion of Hamas theology see our in-depth special: https://rumble.com/v435jt2-in-depth-special-hamas-theology-and-ideology.html The "Terrorists in Uniform" PMW report: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/l1do2pdiatfti2z8dmft7/PMW-Special-Report-Terrorists-in-Uniform-Jan-31-2024.pdf?rlkey=5tizg0w3ga6z2ds9ov5akwuim&e=1&dl=0

This is not a regular episode of our podcast. These are the opening remarks by the three distinguished speakers on this panel, Batya Ungar-Sargon, Mariam Memarsadeghi, and Nina Power. The Webinar was moderated by Gabriel Noah Brahm at the Telos-Paul Piccone Institute's yearlong series reckoning with the response to the atrocities on October 7. For the full webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ad77jEdZDY&t=122s For the full schedule of webinars on October 7: https://www.telosinstitute.net/israel-initiative/

In this in-depth special edition of Israel Update we bring you (with English subtitles) a conversation with General Itzhak Brik – the man who has been sounding the alarm about the lack of IDF preparedness for many years. The IDF brass routinely dismissed his warnings. But Israel has since learned the hard way that he was right. Brik walked us through the mistakes that brought about the decline of Israel's military force under the false conception that big wars are a thing of the past and that a small technological army would do to keep Israel safe. We also asked him how ready Israel may be for a war with Hezbollah. This conversation was recorded a month ago. We thank the indefatigable Elizabeth Rimini for her careful translation. Please visit her video channel: http://bit.ly/EliRim

King Herod was a master at using the Roman Empire in order to outmaneuver domestic opposition. But the Romans were no less shrewd at using him. The result was, eventually, the demise of Jewish independence in the land of Israel. Is the Israeli opposition attempting the same kind of move by inviting American intervention in domestic politics? Mike, Gadi and Tablet's Tony Badran discuss Gantz's visit to Washington in light of Tony's brilliant analysis of the parallels and differences between King Herod's time and our own. See Tony's original piece here: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/new-herodians-israel-biden-iran