Questions tagged [bayesian]
Bayesian reasoning is a probabilistic approach to inductive and abductive reasoning, based on Bayes' rule, that posits when one event implies a second event is likely, that given the second event occurring, that increases the likelihood of the first event.
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At what point should we suspect unfair game?
In probability theory, there are two primary approaches to interpreting events: the frequentist perspective and the Bayesian perspective.
From a frequentist standpoint, each spin of a fair roulette ...
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What principle protects the objective nature of the prior and the conclusion in Bayes’s theorem?
The Bayesian analysis begins with the "prior": some assumption about the world and the probability that the assumption is true.
But the prior seems to be based on nothing. The hypothesis and ...
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Mario Bunge on Bayesianism
I was reading Bunge's book "Chasing reality" (pg 116-117) and I came across the following text:
To appreciate the enormity of the Bayesian attempted
counter-revolution, consider, for ...
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Is there any difference between abduction and induction in Bayesian terms?
In abduction we take some observations and try to find the hypothesis that best explains them.
In Bayesian terms this sounds like finding the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimate. To a Bayesian, "...
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Bayesian conditional probability and material implication
I was reading E. T. Jaynes' Confidence Intervals vs Bayesian Intervals (available here), and I came across this statement regarding Boole's The Laws of Thought:
Boole's own work on probability theory....
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How is this Linda example addressed by Bayesian thinking?
Suppose that you see Linda go to the bank every single day. Presumably this supports the hypothesis H = Linda is a banker. But this also supports the hypothesis H = Linda is a Banker and Linda is a ...
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Does psychophysical harmony strongly point toward theism?
From Psychophysical Harmony: A New Argument for Theism, by Brian Cutter & Dustin Crummett:
Abstract
This paper develops a new argument from consciousness to theism: the argument from ...
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Is not knowing whether X is true inconsistent with assigning a probability to it?
I have read that it is wise to assign a non zero probability to beliefs, and not 0 or 1. This is because probability represents certainty and you cannot be certain of anything.
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However, if you ...
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Does an improbable outcome under a known hypothesis increase the probability of an alternative hypothesis?
Suppose you observe a claimed psychic get 10 guesses right after he says he will guess a number between 1 and 10 that you’re thinking of.
After this happens, should your credence in psychism increase? ...
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Can a zero prior probability for some theories be justified?
Let us assume the case of psychics and call the hypothesis of a “psychic explanation” H. Bayesian theory tells you to never assign a prior of zero. This is because if P(H) = 0, then no amount of ...
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Are there any examples of two theories that accurately describe a phenomenon where the more complex one was found to be correct?
I was reading this answer on how Solomonoff's theory of inductive inference can be used to posit the more correct theory amongst a set that provide the expected "answer", where the shorter, ...
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Does a 100% degree of belief imply that no amount of evidence can change your mind?
As a reminder, in Bayesian epistemology, given a hypothesis H and new evidence E, it is recommended to update your degree of belief using the formula P (H|E) = (P (E|H) * P(H))/P(E). P (H) is the ...
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Does this Sleeping Beauty problem show conflicting priors?
Let's say that there are three beauties; Michael, Jane, and Jill. They are put to sleep and assigned a random number from {1, 2, 3}.
If the coin lands heads then 1 is woken on Monday. If the coin ...
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Is there any philosophy that specifically argues against subjective probability?
When I say subjective probability, I am referring to the notion of defining a probability in relation to a credence of belief. For example, one may say that there’s a very high probability that the ...
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Bayes' Theorem and Science
More than one hypothesis may fit the data (hypotheses generation is the stock-in-trade of science)
Choosing a scientific hypothesis is not about truth. People have gone on record that inter alia it's ...
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