What the Polls Are Saying After Trump’s Conviction

I&I–TIPP poll conducted partly after verdict finds two-point swing to Trump

Notes Issues & Insights in its summary of the poll, which came out Monday:

The poll was taken from Wednesday, May 29, through Friday, May 31. The verdict against Trump in New York state court was rendered on Thursday, May 30. So a significant share of the 1,675 registered voters who took the national online I&I/TIPP Poll actually knew that Trump had been found guilty of 34 felony counts.

So did Trump’s guilty verdict change minds, weakening his support? On the contrary, it seems. In the head-to-head poll between President Joe Biden and Trump, it’s now a statistical toss-up, 41% to 41%. But that’s an improvement for Trump from May, when he trailed Biden by 2 percentage points in that month’s I&I/TIPP poll (42% Biden to 40% Trump). The June poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

CBS News–YouGov recontact poll finds little shift in opinion

Explains CBS News regarding the “nationally representative sample of 989 U.S. adults who were recontacted on May 30–June 1”:

In all, we recontacted the Americans we interviewed before the verdict was reached, and hearing the jury’s decision hasn’t changed a lot of their minds.

There are some implications for views of the U.S. justice system as a whole. Most Democrats say it’s made them more confident in the justice system. Among Republicans, three-quarters say it’s made them less confident in it.

Overall, opinions of the verdict are in line with what views of Trump’s guilt or innocence were before the verdict was reached. Among those who thought Trump was guilty before hearing the verdict, nine in 10 now say the jury reached the right verdict — and vice versa for those who previously thought he wasn’t guilty.

In all, the verdict doesn’t elicit any one widespread emotion from the country. Democrats feel mostly glad and relieved, but not many say they’re hopeful. Republicans are more disappointed than angry, but not particularly surprised. (Respondents could express multiple feelings.)

This was an interesting point, however:

While opinion did not shift much in the immediate aftermath of the verdict, there’s certainly some room for movement — especially among those who haven’t been paying close attention. Those who have paid the most attention to the trial hold the firmest beliefs about it. Among those who hadn’t heard much about the trial pre-verdict, most say they’re still not following it very closely. 

ABC News–Ipsos poll finds mostly even split in opinion of verdict/trial, except among “double haters”

Per ABC News’ summary of the new poll, which was conducted May 31–June 1 among a random national sample of 781 adults:

A plurality of Americans, 50%, think [Trump’s guilty verdict] was correct, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds, and almost as many, 49%, think he should end his 2024 presidential campaign over the result. …

Forty-seven percent of Americans said they think the charges against Trump in this case were politically motivated, while 38% say they were not. At the same time, the slight majority at 51%, think Trump intentionally did something illegal in this case. Twelve percent think Trump did something wrong but not intentionally, and 19% believe he did not do anything wrong.

The proportion of Americans who say Trump should end his presidential campaign as a result of this verdict is 49%, which is similar to findings from an April 2023 ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted shortly after the Manhattan grand jury handed down the indictment against him in this case. In the April 2023 polls, 48% thought he should suspend his campaign because of the indictment.

And here’s what independents and “double haters” said:

A majority of Independents think Trump’s verdict was correct, 52%, and the same amount believe that he should end his candidacy. For double-haters, those reactions are even more pronounced — 65% of Americans who view both Trump and Biden unfavorably think the verdict this week was correct, with 67% believing Trump should end his presidential campaign. Forty-five percent of Independents and 51% of double-haters think the hush-money trial was politically motivated, compared to 83% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats.

Possible insights from YouGov’s post-verdict snap poll

The national Daily Questions survey was conducted online Thursday among 3,040 adults. Per YouGov’s summary of the results, “Americans’ immediate reactions are polarized along party lines, with 86 percent of Democrats but just 15 percent of Republicans believing the former president is guilty of felony charges,” with independents “nearly twice as likely to think he’s guilty as to think he’s not.” But overall, 50 percent approved of the conviction.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents also said it was at least probable Trump has ever committed crimes, but almost as many didn’t think he will ever go to prison, regardless:

63% say he probably or definitely won’t go to prison, compared to 20% who say he probably or definitely will. Democrats are the most likely political grouping to expect Trump to go to prison, but even among them, 33% say he will be imprisoned and 54% say he won’t.

And as to how the verdict might affect their votes:

Nearly 80% of Americans say the conviction hasn’t changed their minds about the presidential election: Either they were already opposed to Trump and still are (46%), or they were already supporting Trump and still do (32%). Another 13% aren’t sure. But some voters said the verdict did change their minds. 3% of U.S. adults say they weren’t planning on voting for Trump but are after the conviction. 5% say they were previously planning on voting for Trump but now are not.

A Morning Consult poll finds majority approval of the verdict

The Morning Consult survey on Friday found that 54 percent of voters approved (“strongly” or “somewhat”) of the verdict and that Trump committed a crime. In addition, 15 percent of Republican voters, 8 percent of Trump supporters, and 49 percent of independents thought he should end his presidential bid. (Morning Consult also notes the GOP percentage is in line with the number of potential Republican primary voters who still supported Nikki Haley at the end of her campaign.)

Regarding the possible sentences for Trump, a solid majority of survey respondents — 69 percent — thought Trump should be fined as punishment. Another 49 percent thought probation would be best. About half opposed sentencing Trump to prison time, and 44 percent thought he should go to jail.

Seven in ten voters indicated they wanted the other Trump trials resolved before Election Day.

And not surprisingly, the vast majority of Trump voters want Republican politicians to stand with Trump following the verdict, while only 27 percent said Republican politicians should now defend the criminal justice system.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll indicates some Republicans and independents are less likely to vote for Trump

A two-day national Reuters-Ipsos poll, conducted online after Trump’s guilty verdict, found that one in ten registered Republican voters were less likely to vote for Trump following his conviction, and one in four independent voters were less likely to support him as well.

However, NBC News senior political director Mark Murray cautions against overinterpreting that:

Of the 2,556 adults who responded to the poll, 41 percent said they would vote for Biden, and 38 percent said they would vote for Trump — which is a difference within the poll’s margin of error.

Of registered Republicans, 35 percent said Trump’s guilty verdict made it more likely they’d vote for him. Eighteen percent of independents said the same. And 56 percent of registered Republicans said the verdict would have no effect on their vote, as did the same percentage of independents.

Regarding other views of the verdict, 53 percent of respondents said they didn’t think Trump should be jailed, while 46 percent said he should. A slim majority also thought the hush-money case against Trump wasn’t politically motivated, while 46 percent said it was — in order to keep Trump from becoming president again.

A larger majority, 60 percent, said it was important that the three pending trials Trump faces should be completed before the election — which is at this point extremely unlikely.