The phrase “convicted felon Donald Trump” has a nice ring to it for the many Americans who would like to see the ex-president in jail. But experts say it was always unlikely that Trump would leave the courthouse in handcuffs after his guilty verdict. And Trump will probably remain free on bail in the weeks leading up to his sentencing on July 11 — just four days before the Republican National Convention starts.
For Trump, the next month could involve several trips back to New York, where he will sit through the humbling process of inmate review, in which the New York City Department of Probation will interview the incoming felon prior to sentencing. On the 10th floor of the courthouse where he spent the last six weeks, a psychologist or social worker will ask Trump about his mental health, personal history, and employment status. At this point, Trump can also make a case for “why he or she deserves a lighter punishment,” according to the New York State Unified Court System. Trump’s responses and the probation office’s interview — including a sentencing recommendation — will be summarized in a report for Judge Merchan.
For Trump’s attorneys, the next big deadline comes on June 13, when his defense team and prosecutors will file sentencing memos making the case for what they consider an appropriate punishment. Merchan will take these documents into consideration when he decides on sentencing Trump — a nonviolent offender with no criminal record who was convicted of Class-E felonies, the lowest tier of felonies in New York state.
Each count carries a max sentence of four years in prison, though Merchan will take into account Trump’s age and clean criminal record. While experts think any time in prison is unlikely, he could face fines and probation. In his rambling press conference on Friday, Trump announced he would appeal his conviction — a process that would begin after sentencing and would most likely not be resolved until after the election.
Trump will be free to cross the country on his reelection campaign at least until his July sentencing. For now, though, the gag order that barred him from speaking about the witnesses on the case still remains. In his press conference on Friday, Trump appeared to violate the order by referring to a certain “sleazebag” attorney that was obviously Michael Cohen. If Merchan decides to act on his threat to detain Trump for repeated violations of the order, former Department of Corrections officials told Intelligencer that he could either be held in a cell at 100 Centre St. for a few short hours, or be sent to his own wing with Secret Service protection at Rikers Island if he is to stay the night.
If Trump is sentenced to probation, state law would require him to clear any travel outside of New York with a probation officer, which would certainly complicate his presidential campaign. Experts who spoke with the Washington Post said that if Trump were to be hit with home confinement, the authorities in New York would have to coordinate with officers in Florida to make home detention work. Most likely, he will be able to vote in November; while Florida bars felons convicted in Florida from voting, it respects out-of-state voting restrictions when a felon is convicted elsewhere.
Being convicted isn’t all bad news for the former president. Trump has leaned further into the messaging that he is being “persecuted” in an act tantamount to “election interference,” and that message appears to be resonating. Though the campaign’s claims have not been verified by FEC filings yet, they say Trump raised an historic $34.8 million in the hours since his conviction.
