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Limits on modelling the thermal sensitivity of Wolbachia

Nature Climate Change (2024)Cite this article

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The Original Article was published on 03 August 2023

arising from Vásquez et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w (2023)

Wolbachia release programmes using the wMel strain are suppressing the incidence of dengue in many countries. Using models to predict the impact of increasing temperatures and heatwaves on the replacement of wild mosquito populations with wMel carriers, Vásquez et al.1 concluded that wMel replacement is resilient to pre-2060 climate change including anomalies, but that sustained heatwaves may still threaten release programmes. Here we suggest that their assumptions, which were extrapolated from laboratory experiments, may be unrealistic and overly simplistic because they focus only on temperature. We urge caution when making predictions about the likely success of specific dengue control programmes and emphasize that models must consider the full extent of environmental effects on Wolbachia and its mosquito host, with experiments and modelling parameters directly linked to current and future microenvironmental conditions.

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Acknowledgements

P.A.R. was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DE230100067) funded by the Australian Government. A.A.H. was supported by Wellcome Trust awards (108508, 226166).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Section for Bioscience and Engineering, Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark

    Perran A. Ross & Ary A. Hoffmann

  2. Pest and Environmental Adaptation Research Group, School of BioSciences, Bio21 Molecular Science and Biotechnology Institute, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia

    Perran A. Ross & Ary A. Hoffmann

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  1. Perran A. Ross
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P.A.R. wrote the first draft of the manuscript. A.A.H. and P.A.R. revised the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Perran A. Ross.

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Nature Climate Change thanks Eric Caragata, Penny Hancock and Elizabeth McGraw for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Ross, P.A., Hoffmann, A.A. Limits on modelling the thermal sensitivity of Wolbachia. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02062-7

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