Nuclear Terrorism Assessment of U.S. Strategies to Prevent, Counter, and Respond to Weapons of Mass Destruction (2024) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 3-13
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A terrorist organization that gains possession of a nuclear weapon or nuclear materials would have the "strength" to take advantage of "the weakness of others,"⎯the vulnerability of societies to a nuclear or radiological attack⎯resulting in "murder on a great scale." When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, there was a significant risk that nuclear material and potentially even nuclear weapons, might fall into the hands of non-state actors. To prevent this from happening, the United States, took the extraordinary step to assist its Cold War adversary in securing nuclear weapons and weapons-useable material.
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CURRENT AND EMERGING NUCLEAR TERRORIST THREATS Nuclear terrorist threats are generally categorized as the intentional detonation of a state developed nuclear weapon, an improvised nuclear device (IND) assembled with stolen weapons usable fissile material, radiological dispersal devices (RDD)
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Given the open and widespread nature of social media, MDM could also be used by terrorists, including nuclear terrorists, to intentionally spread false information during a nuclear incident to confuse the public about what actions they should take to stay safe. Even poorly designed disinformation campaigns could impact confidence in government institutions, reputable journalistic outlets, and "other staples in democracy" (Wolters et al., 2021)
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There have been cyberattacks on operating nuclear power plants in India, Japan, and South Korea. Russia has demonstrated a willingness to defy international norms, not only by attacking and occupying Ukraine's operating civilian nuclear power plants, but also by employing proxies with a history of war crimes, deploying operatives to attack and poison individuals with advanced nerve agents and radiological substances, and threatening to use nuclear weapons.
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Given this new reality, there must be continued strong U.S.-led efforts to adapt and expand the international programs that have to date prevented a successful terrorist nuclear attack and discourage non-weapons states from acquiring nuclear weapons. For three decades, the cornerstone of managing the nuclear terrorism threat has been limiting the number of nuclear weapons and the availability of weapons-usable nuclear materials that may potentially fall into the hands of non-state actors.
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THE EVOLVING CIVIL NUCLEAR SECTOR: ADAPTING APPROACHES AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES International interest in nuclear energy is growing due to its potential to provide clean power and support the goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions. At the same time, new nuclear power technologies, including small modular reactors, are making nuclear power more accessible.
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(Together these weapons usable fissile materials are referred to as special nuclear material.) While global inventories of HEU have remained mostly static since 2020, the inventories of plutonium have since increased by more than 17,000 kilograms, mostly as a result of commercial nuclear energy production (International Panel on Fissile Materials 2022)
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But more attention is needed to mobilize and sustain efforts to identify additional technological alternatives, raise awareness of the risk, and enact stronger security measures. This should include working with industry and international partners to close gaps in detecting illicit source trafficking along the various pathways that terrorist groups might exploit.
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law enforcement agents involved in interdiction and border control efforts receive on-going nuclear detection training and have ready access to specialized equipment, expertise, and the means to handle radiological and nuclear materials safely. RESPONSE AND RECOVERY TO NUCLEAR INCIDENTS It is imprudent to assume that efforts to prevent a terrorism event will always be successful.
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An adequate response to a nuclear or radiological incident requires enhanced coordination of emergency management response protocols across all levels of government and protocols and experts to provide accurate information dissemination trusted, science-based information. Significant new investments in resources would likely be needed to develop and sustain adequate nuclear incident response and recovery capabilities at the local and state levels.
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FIGURE 1-1 A member of the Russian military guarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southeastern Ukraine, May 2022. The capture of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Vladimir Putin's nuclear saber rattling during the course of this consensus study highlight that increased volatility in the global security environment can exacerbate nuclear risks.
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