Out of school children in the context of new policy trajectories and interlocking crises in Zimbabwe: a transformative social policy perspective

Over the past two decades, Zimbabwe, like many other countries in sub-Saharan Africa has faced the challenge of out of school children (OOSC). OOSC are defined as the percentage of children and youth who fall into the official range for the given level of education but are not enrolled in school (UIS 2022). In Zimbabwe, estimates are that approximately 895 000 children are out of school (UNICEF 2022; Mangwaya 2022). This number has however been a subject of contention and debate due to varying statistics provided by both state and non-state entities (Mangwaya 2022; US State Department 2021:55). Despite these contestations, there is concern by the state and civil society organisations regarding the high prevalence of OOSC. The situation has had significant implications for Zimbabwe’s educational system, individual well-being, socio-economic development, and the future prospects of children and the youth who remain excluded from the formal education system. To understand the challenge of OOSC in Zimbabwe, we must consider the broader regional and international context. Sub-Saharan Africa holds the unenviable record as having one of the highest rates of OOSC globally (Klapper and Panchamia 2023). In 2021 the region was estimated to have a staggering 98 million OOSC (UNESCO 2022:4). This marks ‘…an increase of 20 million since 2009 and the prevalence in 2022 has been reported at 19.9% for those of primary school age, 33.3% of the lower secondary school age and 47.8% of the upper secondary school age’ (UNESCO 2022:4). These statistics highlight the urgent need for targeted interventions to address the exclusion of children and the youth from education in sub-Saharan Africa, which remains one of the highest among the six developing regions worldwide (Klapper and Panchamia 2023).

The challenge of OOSC extends beyond the sub-Saharan context and it is a phenomenon with global implications. In 2021, an estimated 244 million children worldwide were out of school. This group included 67 million primary school-age children (6–11 years old), 57 million adolescents in lower secondary education (12–14 years old), and 121 million young people in upper secondary education (15–17 years old) (UNESCO 2022:3). In 2023, this number had risen by 6 million, reaching a staggering 250 million globally. This has meant that globally 16% of children in both primary and secondary levels are not attending school; at primary level, one out of 10 children are not in school and 122 million or 48% of the OOSC population are girls and young children (UNESCO 2023). The situation is thus dire, and without decisive action, the number of OOSC is expected to continue rising.

This global crisis in education unfolds against a backdrop of an interlocking crises facing the world which includes climate change, inequality, conflict, biodiversity collapse, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and its legacy (Kempf et al. 2023; UNRISD 2023). The interlocking crises has caused unprecedented disruptions in the global education system. Progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG4, which aims for ‘inclusive and equitable quality education for all’ (A4ID 2022:iii) has become a significant challenge and there are fears that without some urgent and decisive interventions, the goals may be missed (Antoninis and Montoya 2023). It is against this background, at both regional and global levels that addressing the scourge of OOSC has become crucial. The current challenges have brought to the fore and amplified the persistent inequities and disparities in achieving quality education for all (UNESCO 2022, 2023). Urgent interventions are therefore needed to address these inequities and disparities, ensuring the creation of an environment that facilitates inclusive and equitable access to quality education for all children and young people.

Zimbabwe has not been immune to the dynamics outlined above, and the situation is dire. Over the past few years, the country has been confronted by economic and political instability, disparities in gender, inadequate infrastructure, and challenges related to education quality and provision (Mhlanga and Ndhlovu 2021; Vambe 2023; Chapfika 2023). In addition, high levels of poverty and vulnerability persist, along with a prevalence of child labour and exploitation (Bureau of International Labour Affairs 2022). Despite having progressive policies and legislation aimed at minimising the incidence of OOSC, these obstacles have hindered efforts toward achieving inclusive and high-quality education. Cognisant of the formidable challenges and intricate dynamics surrounding the issue of OOSC in Zimbabwe, this article aims to ignite scholarly discussions on the underlying complexities of educational exclusion within the country. In doing this, it is guided by four principal motivations. First, is the need to better understand educational exclusion in the country, despite discernible efforts to enhance education access. This entails shedding light on the structural, economic, and social factors that contribute to OOSC. Second, is the need to understand policy trajectories and their effectiveness in promoting inclusive education. By analysing policy shifts, the aim is to identify gaps and recommend evidence-based strategies that shape education policies and address the needs of OOSC. Third, is a motivation to unravel the nexus between the contemporary intersecting crises and their impact on the education system. The focus is on how the country is navigating the multiple crises and the implications which this is having on education outcomes and OOSC. Fourth and lastly, is utilisation of the conceptual lenses of the transformative social policy framework (TSP). Through this framework, there is motivation to explore systemic changes and the development and implementation of policies that can lead to transformative outcomes in education. The main goal of all these motivations is to propose policy solutions that contribute to positive social transformation and allow children and the youth to have access to quality and inclusive education.

In line with the above, this article is crystallised around the following research questions: (1) What is the prevalence and underlying causes of OOSC in Zimbabwe? (2) How are recent policy changes impacting on the education sector? (3) What role (if any) does the intersecting crises play in exacerbating the OOSC phenomenon? (4) How can social policy be transformational and be utilised to address the scourge of OOSC in Zimbabwe? The article thus aims to provide insight on the extent and characteristics of OOSC in Zimbabwe, the effectiveness of new policy trajectories in promoting inclusive education, provide a better understanding of the interplay between crises and educational outcomes and to propose transformative policy measures that enhance education opportunities for all children and the youth. As it undertakes this exercise, there is awareness that a lot of information on OOSC in Zimbabwe which has been produced by different entities including international organisations, the government, media, local civil society organisations, academia, and other stakeholders. This data is however fragmented. Although it is insightful, lack of centralisation and harmonisation of data collection systems hinders its impact on policymaking. The absence of a comprehensive and unified data set on OOSC is a major challenge in the Zimbabwe context which handicaps the formulation of targeted interventions and the effective allocation of resources. This represents a major challenge which this article highlights as it presents the argument for the need of evidence-based policies that are critical for addressing the scourge of OOSC.

This article thus addresses these notable gaps in scholarly literature, and it utilises numerous sources to shed light on the phenomenon of OOSC. It goes on to provide valuable insights and actionable recommendations for policymakers, educators, and stakeholders. By doing so, it aims to foster a positive transformation within the country’s education sector. In the subsequent section, we will briefly explore the concept of TSP which is utilised as the conceptual and evaluative framework.

Social policy has been defined as ‘…collective public efforts aimed at affecting and protecting the social wellbeing of people within a given territory’ (Adesina 2007:1–2; 2009). It is widely acknowledged that one of the social policy tools is education, and that it serves a similar purpose as other traditional social policy tools such as those related to health, human settlement, social insurance, pensions for the elderly, and labour market reforms. Some of the key features of education as a social policy instrument relevant to this paper are its concerns with redistribution, enhancement of peoples productive and reproductive potential and providing protection during the life cycle. For Spicker (2023), education is important as an instrument of social policy, not only as a policy for welfare but also as policies intended to deal with the structure of society. From a social policy perspective, education thus serves several important functions. These include developing an individual’s intellect which allows them to reach their fullest potential, it is a vehicle for socialisation as it transmits social norms and values, it provides for the needs of industry and economy and is an instrument for social change and social control (Noyoo 2023). This has meant that education has utility in the pursuit for social development aimed at improving human wellbeing, social relations, and institutions (UNRISD 2011). In the social policy matrix, education is thus considered critical as it represents an investment in people, and it is essential for the economy and the labour market (Noyoo 2023). Given the critical role of education as a social policy tool, we utilise the TSP as a theoretical and evaluative tool to assess the dynamics of OOSC in Zimbabwe. The TSP approach suggests using a variety of policy instruments (including education) in a development context for the goal of ensuring human wellbeing. It was born out of the UNRISD flagship research programme titled, Social Policy in a Development Context (UNRISD 2006). The basic premise of the TSP is the need to return to the ‘wider vision’ of social policy, with the aim of averting what is seen as the neo-liberal diminution of social policy (Adesina 2015) and the urgency of overcoming the stratified, segmented, and segregated social policy architecture which is prevalent in the development context (Fischer 2018). TSP advocates for the halting of the simultaneous rolling back of public provisioning and insertion of the market transactional logic in public service provision.

TSP advances arguments for the need of fundamental structural transformation premised on universal rights with a synergistic relationship between social and economic policy aimed at reinforcing the progressive redistributive effects of economic policies (Adesina 2021). Its primary driving force is the desire to fundamentally alter social structures and relationships to improve human welfare and the productive potential of people as individuals, communities, and organisations (Adesina 2009). Critical is the concern with addressing the structural underpinnings of diswelfare and entitlement failure which have negatively impacted on growth, production, reproduction, and protection in society contributing to income losses, poverty, and inequality (Adesina 2020:18; Hujo 2014). For education, our argument is that TSP highlights education as an instrument for production and transformation whereby education policy instruments become critical for economic production, social reproduction, redistribution and protection against life and market risks. This is in addition to its potential of fostering social cohesion and the enjoyment of rights.

For this article, education is thus considered as a tool for social policy, with the TSP being a critical theoretical and evaluative instrument with utility in answering the research questions posed. It was recognised as useful in assessing the instrumentality of education as part of the coherent whole and an integral part of the social policy architecture. The issue of OOSC was considered as a useful point of reference of some of the symptomatic failures of the system. In the study, the TSP framework was considered suitable for examining and analysing the complex factors contributing to OOSC. It was seen as valuable in assessing policy changes and their impact on educational access, while also demonstrating the potential to generate sustainable solutions for inclusive and equitable education. Its emphasis on equity, inclusion, resilience, and adaptability also motivated its selection in addition to its potential to address systemic and structural issues which contribute to OOSC. Utilising the TSP framework was thus considered useful in providing the requisite political economy lens useful for examining institutional and political contexts from the local to the global and the role of different actors with a view of assessing how these impact on OOSC.

The study adopted an interpretive research paradigm and employed content analysis as its methodological framework. These choices were considered appropriate in enhancing the understanding of the OOSC phenomenon in Zimbabwe. Using this framework was seen as having utility to explore OOSC prevalence, causes, dynamics related to policy changes, impact, and its connection to the ongoing interlocking crises. Additionally, it was seen as allowing for an examination of the potential role of social policy in addressing the challenge of OOSC. The interpretive approach was seen as being relevant for this research context given its utility for understanding and interpreting human behaviour, culture, and social phenomenon (Gadamer 2004). At its core is the idea that social reality is shaped by human experiences, and it emphasises the subjective meaning making process of individuals as it uncovers underlying meanings, symbols and contexts in which actions occur (Bhattacherjee 2012; Pervin and Mokhtar 2022). The interpretive approach is useful for the close reading of texts, interviews and for observations as one explores complex social phenomena, cultural practices, and historical contexts (Bhattacherjee 2012; Pervin and Mokhtar 2022; Gadamer 2004).

Considering its usefulness particularly in the reading of texts and in qualitative oriented research, the interpretive paradigm was used in conjunction with content analysis. Content analysis is a research methodology that involves the systematic analysis and interpretation of various forms of communication which include texts, images and media and it provides valuable insight on underlying messages, themes, and patterns within communication (Krippendorff 2019). In the study, we employed content analysis to systematically analyse and interpret secondary data from various sources. These sources included government reports, civil society organisation publications, policy and strategic plan documents, journal articles, books, media reports, and online content. The process began with an extensive literature search, using major databases and search engines such as Scopus, Web of Science, EBSCO, Google Scholar and JSTOR among others. Keywords and phrases related to OOSC which included school dropout rates, retention rates, enrolment rates, completion rates, poverty and education, barriers to education among others guided our search. After identifying relevant texts, we carefully evaluated their suitability to answer our research questions. We then extracted data from each source and compiled it into a comprehensive dataset. To make sense of this rich information, we developed a set of codes based on relevant words, phrases, and sentences related to OOSC. These codes allowed us to categorise the data into themes and sub-themes, refining our understanding of OOSC dynamics. Our analysis followed a rigorous and systematic approach, exploring patterns, trends, and relationships within the data. By systematically examining existing data, we managed to get a better understanding of critical educational issues related to OOSC in Zimbabwe. Content analysis, grounded in an interpretive approach, thus served as a powerful tool for the study in unravelling complexities, shedding light on barriers to education, and informing policy and practice.

During the data collection process and subsequent analysis, a noteworthy observation emerged that a significant portion of the literature on OOSC in Zimbabwe primarily originates from government reports and international organisations, particularly agencies affiliated with the United Nations. While this extensive body of work provides valuable insights, it simultaneously raises critical concerns regarding data quality, validity, and reliability. This context unfolds against a backdrop of ongoing debates surrounding the production and dissemination of ideas, especially by the UN and nation-states (Therien 2015). We were cognisant that research findings and ideas often serve as tools to shape specific narratives, carrying underlying ideological connotations. Throughout our research, we remained acutely aware of these dynamics, prompting us to meticulously scrutinise the data which we collected. We conducted rigorous assessments to ensure the quality and reliability of the literature, recognising the potential biases inherent in data sourced from specific entities. We were aware of the potential of political and ideological influence; therefore, we critically examined the ideological underpinnings of the data we encountered. Navigating the challenges of interoperability and fragmentation, we sought common threads and patterns across disparate materials. In addition, we considered the broader socio-political landscape when interpreting findings, overcoming the challenge of context and interpretation. The dynamics around national interests versus global goals were inherent in the literature, motivating us to be rigorous and to engage in critical analysis. To enhance the robustness of our work, we deliberately sourced data from multiple sources, ensuring cross-validation and verification. By utilising diverse sources, we enriched our research, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of OOSC dynamics in the Zimbabwe context.

To understand the dynamics of OOSC in contemporary Zimbabwe, it is important to have an appreciation of the country’s education context and legacy. Formerly a British settler colony, educational policy in Zimbabwe was historically discriminatory. Racialised logic gave priority to the interests of the settler minority in the delivery of public services and it underpinned policy formulation and the provision of social services including education (Atkinson 1984). Realising the immense potential of education and its utility in enlightenment, the colonial administrators ensured tight control of education provision and limited opportunities for the native majority (Zvobgo 1981:14; Atkinson 1984). These decisions were informed by a settler-colonial political establishment that were interconnected with capitalist industry (for example in mining, manufacturing and agriculture) which directly benefited from institutionalised racial segregation (Chipenda 2022). Consequently, the native majority were alienated and prevented from being able to benefit from state support. For the settler class however, opportunities existed irrespective of their abilities (Atkinson 1984). Attempts to mix races in white independent schools through bursaries were resisted and it was only in 1979, following a protracted war of liberation and constitutional settlement, that there was the abolishment of racial discrimination in the education sector and this provision was made through the Education Act of 1979 (Atkinson 1984).

Post independence Zimbabwe stands out as an exemplary model of achievement by a former settler colony to redress injustices perpetrated against the hitherto marginalised African population while establishing and upholding socio-economic rights. Under the leadership of the Zimbabwe African Union Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), the newly independent nation encountered a dilemma with its educational programme in 1980. After emerging victorious from a protracted liberation struggle, ZANU-PF sought to implement socialist principles of equality, collectivism, and productive labour in schools. It also sought to promote Marxist-Leninist ideas of social reconstruction (Atkinson 1984). Given the prevailing circumstances, this was unrealistic, and the government was forced to retain the existing school system and adapt it to meet the realities and purposes of the socialist state on the one hand while meeting the manpower needs of the economy on the other. This entailed amendments to the Education Act (1979) in addition to the wholesale expansion of the educational system (Atkinson 1984).

Strides made in the educational sector in the post-independence period were put into perspective by the Educational Coalition for Zimbabwe (2017) and Raftopoulos and Pilossof (2021). They note that at independence primary school enrolment increased from 819,586 in 1979 to 1,235,815 in 1980 marking an increase of 51%. By 1989, enrolment had risen to 2,223,000 and it further increased to 2,746,575 by 1995. During the period of 1980 to 1995, the number of primary schools increased from 3,161 to 4,633 while teachers increased from 28,500 to 64,184. In the secondary school sector, enrolment grew from 66,215 to 148,690 during the period 1979 to 1981. It further increased to 711,094 in 1995 (Raftopoulos and Pilossof 2021). The number of secondary schools increased from 197 to 1,535 with secondary school teachers increasing from 3,736 in 1980 to 27,320 in 1995. These developments highlight the educational transformation witnessed in post-independence Zimbabwe, one which was heavily subsidised by the state and later became free. While education development during this period was impressive, there were several challenges, such as the absence of a comprehensive policy framework, limited access (to education), gender inequality, relevance/irrelevance of the curriculum, school dropouts and crippling financial challenges (Raftopoulos and Pilossof 2021).

When the state implemented the Economic Structural Adjustment Programme (ESAP), which was a set of policy reforms recommended by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, investments made in the education sector were undermined in the 1990s (Nyambuya 1994). At the core of ESAP were cuts in government expenditure and the introduction of user fees in social service provision. Gains made in the provision of education plummeted as the costs of education increased while the state introduced measures to recover costs in the education and health sectors. In education, enrolments declined between 1992 and 1995 by as much as 5% in both rural and urban schools (Saunders 1996). The post 2000 period witnessed a continuation of challenges in the education sector. The negative impacts of ESAP coupled with high inflation, low foreign currency reserves, high budget deficits, poor economic performance, the flight of a skilled and experienced human resource as well as targeted economic sanctions by western countries cumulatively contributed to economic collapse and this negatively impacted on the country’s education sector (GoZ 2013a). These changes occurred in a context where the Robert Mugabe led ZANU-PF, for the first time since independence, faced a real threat to its political dominance by the newly created Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), an opposition left learning party led by veteran trade unionists Morgan Tsvangirai and Gibson Sibanda (Ndlovu-Gatsheni 2012). To safeguard its power, ZANU-PF resorted to intimidation and violence against the populace, particularly against individuals and groups who were thought to be pro-opposition (Mhike 2018; Mwonzora and Hellicker 2020). This culminated in disputed elections and accusations of human rights abuses (Mwonzora and Hellicker 2020).

The Zimbabwean economy witnessed a dramatic collapse in the 2000s due to a combination of factors, and most of these had their roots in the late 1990’s. These included the adoption of neo-liberal economic policies, the country’s involvement in the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, unbudgeted payments to veterans of the liberation struggle, an unprecedented and radical land reform program, and international sanctions imposed by the United States (through the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act of 2001) and the European Union in 2001 and 2002 respectively. These cumulatively ignited economic challenges which have had adverse effects on the provision of education and their impact is evident in contemporary Zimbabwe (Maunganidze et al. 2021; Chipanga and Mude 2015; Ogbonna 2017).

Due to ESAP and the above-noted economic factors, funding to education declined from the mid-1990s and the downward trend has continued to date. While funding for education declined, it is worth noting that the percentage of GDP on education peaked, especially in 1994, when it reached 44.3%. Compared to its peers in the region, the country demonstrated remarkable investments in the education sector. Unfortunately, since then the country began witnessing a decline in education funding and this has continued to date (Fig. 1; World Bank 2023; USAID 2023; UNICEF 2023a, b). The result was a reversing some of the remarkable achievements made during the first decade and a half of independence. During the government of national unity (GNU) period from 2009 to 2013 (which is explained below), there was a slight increase in expenditure on education which was maintained for a few years, but since 2016 there has been a steady decline. When compared to suggested worldwide targets, education spending in Zimbabwe has therefore continued to decline. In 2022, the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education (MoPSE) received a 2022 budget that amounted to 2.4% of GDP, which was less than the 5.4% objective set for the Education for All target. At 13% of the total budget, it was less than the 20% criterion specified by the Dakar Declaration (UNICEF 2023a, b; Education Coalition for Zimbabwe and Zimbabwe Network of Early Childhood Development Actors 2021).

Government expenditure on education (% of GDP)—Zimbabwe and other countries. Source Authors from World Bank (2023); USAID (2023) and UNICEF (2023a, b) data

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Despite the challenges experienced, the 2000s were an important period in Zimbabwe’s education history as these years witnessed transformation. As a result of the Presidential Commission of Inquiry into Education and Training of 1999 (CIET) recommendations, the nation implemented a formal and non-formal education system in 2005 (MoPSE 2020, 2022). The CIET has shaped the contemporary educational structure of the country, and it currently comprises of a tiered education system (Fig. 2). Primary education lasts for nine years; comprising of infant education (four years of schooling which is ECDA, ECDB and Grades one and two). This is followed by junior education, comprising of five years of education from Grades three to seven. After completion of primary education, learners proceed to secondary education which lasts for six years (secondary education is broken into a lower secondary level of forms one to four, which upon completion leads to the awarding of the ordinary level certificate and the upper secondary level which offers advanced level studies and prepares students for tertiary level education). At this level there is the awarding of the advanced level certificate with grades based on performance. The last level is tertiary education, which is offered by institutions of higher learning, and it includes technical and vocational education colleges, teachers’ colleges, and universities (Fig II; MoPSE 2020; ZimStat 2021).

Zimbabwe’s education structure. Source MoPSE (2023)

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In 2009, the funding trajectory of education changed, and this was attributable to the formation of a GNU by ZANU-PF and rival factions of the MDC. The then Minister of Finance in the GNU who came from the MDC claimed that in the background of challenges and economic turbulence that had been experienced in the country, there were notable positive changes in the education sector. He claimed education access had significantly improved; high staff turnover had been reduced; schools which were closed were reopened; school infrastructure had been repaired with new construction initiatives; there were notable improvements in the supply of learning materials (especially textbooks); educational support especially through the Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM) had become functional (with parents being helped to pay school fees) among other interventions during the GNU period (Biti 2014).

After the GNU had ended in 2013, the government now solely led by ZANU-PF following an election victory created a new economic plan known as the Zimbabwe Agenda for Socio-economic Transformation (ZimAsset; 2013–2018), which was in line with the goals of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Explicitly spelt out by ZimAsset was ‘… achieving universal primary education, improved quality of education from ECD, to vocational and tertiary institutions as well as efforts to enhance literacy skills, with clear targets for each year in the plan’ (GoZ 2013a:28). The strategy, which was based on an agenda for indigenisation, empowerment, and job creation powered and financed by extraction of the country’s natural resources, sought to promote social fairness and sustainable development (GoZ 2013a). In the economic plan, education was considered an area of priority. It was argued that education had been compromised due to adverse socio-economic conditions which were a consequence of sanctions imposed by Western countries. These were said to have negatively impacted on government revenue collection, investment, trade, and its capacity to provide services to citizens (GoZ 2013a). High dropout and low pass rates at both primary and secondary levels were considered to be the evidence of the negative impact of the adverse socio-economic conditions created by the sanctions (GoZ 2013a:17–18). It was in this context that ZimAsset was to lay a foundation and mark a shift for future policy trajectories in the education sector.

ZimAsset was disrupted in September 2017 following the country’s unexpected political transition, which saw the country’s long serving President Robert Mugabe being forced to resign from the presidency following military and ZANU PF action in an operation termed ‘Operation Restore Legacy’ (Tendi 2019). Mugabe was replaced by his long serving comrade and former deputy Emmerson Mnangagwa, under an administration which christened itself the ‘new dispensation’ and later the ‘second republic.’ From the onset the new dispensation has presented itself as conciliatory and committed to a global re-engagement agenda with nations that had become estranged with the Mugabe administration (Mkodzongi 2022). Breaking with the policies of the Mugabe period, the new administration pledged to combat corruption, revive the economy, and embark on an economic trajectory that would improve the welfare and wellbeing of citizens. Since then, contemporary policies in the country have come to be associated with neo-liberal orthodoxy, gradually marginalising the redistributive and indigenisation policies that Mugabe supported (Mkodzongi 2022). Public service delivery and policy trajectories have been impacted by macroeconomic interventions and policies that are increasingly in line with the demands of global capital (Mkodzongi 2022). In this context, the country’s education system has also been negatively affected.

For Zimbabwe in the Second Republic, policy trajectories across all sectors were initially expressed in the Transitional Stabilisation Programme (TRSP), a five-year economic plan aimed at transforming the economy, facilitating the realisation of Vision 2030, the SDGs, and the African Unions Agenda 2063. The TRSP reflected Zimbabwe’s ambitions to become an empowered and affluent upper middle-class society by 2030, with a focus on employment creation, growth stimulation, and budgetary consolidation (GoZ 2018). In the TRSP plan, the country’s education policy was highlighted as needing attention with a commitment to ensure access to education by all, the provision of adequate infrastructure and the early detection of children who might not enrol in school, drop out, or fall behind in the education system (GoZ 2018). Commitment was made to develop strategies to support these children and to meet their school fees and levy needs (GoZ 2018:xxii, 254). In the TRSP plan, the government also committed to rehabilitate and expand existing tertiary institutions and make the education system relevant to the skills and demands of the economy and markets. Priority was made to cater for the needs of ‘…a disproportionate number of leaners who are out of school, inclusive of those living with disabilities, on account of inability to pay fees and absence of nearby learning facilities with inclusive and appropriate learning environments’ (GoZ 2018:271). Some of the provisions of the TRSP were the basis for the Education Sector Strategic Plan whose emphasis was on addressing inequities and ensuring inclusivity, equity, quality, and socio-economic development in the education sector in line with SDG 4.

The TRSP has since been replaced by the National Development Strategy (NDS1- 2021-2025). Like the TRSP, this five-year medium-term plan aims to achieve both the AU Agenda 2063 and the SDGs simultaneously to actualise the nation’s Vision 2030. Critically underlying NDS1 is a vision for ‘…broad based transformation, wealth creation and expansion of economic opportunities to make sure no one is left behind’ (GoZ 2020a:iv). The overarching goal of NDS1 is ‘… to ensure high, accelerated, inclusive and sustainable economic growth as well as socio-economic transformation and a move towards a middle middle-income society by 2030’ (GoZ 2020a:vii). Just like TRSP, NDS1 also acknowledges education as a key pillar and requirement for attaining set socio-economic goals. It notes that while some achievements have been made in the education sector, persistent challenges remain. An example of this is that 17.8% of learners who would have completed primary education are not managing to continue with secondary education due to an inability to pay school fees (GoZ 2020a). It observes a drop in the standard of instruction and fundamental practical abilities like reading and numeracy. Children with disabilities and the disadvantaged (particularly those in remote areas) have exhibited low attendance levels and do not complete the full cycle of education. Schools are under resourced, there are discrepancies and gaps between rural and urban schools, and this is due to heavy reliance on parental support, high teacher-pupil ratios and unsustainable class rotations, hot sitting, and double shifts (GoZ 2020a). There are high school dropouts particularly at secondary level and an increase in the incidence child marriages, adolescent pregnancy, and the high burden of fees (GoZ 2020a). The situation disproportionally affects girls with 30% dropping out in at secondary level in forms three and four (GoZ 2020a:148–149).

Through NDS1 the government has proposed a cocktail of measures to ensure an education system that ensures quality, equity, and inclusivity. For NDS1, education is key for human capital development and innovation. It is viewed as a catalyst for continuous growth, technological advancement, and an essential pre-requisite for a knowledge-driven economy. Emphasis is made on infrastructural development and broadening access to education especially for the disenfranchised, those in remote areas and those in overcrowded urban areas. Improving the calibre of learning and learning outcomes is the main goal of interventions. It is suggested that NDS1 should be implemented in the school sector in tandem with the Education Sector Strategic Plan, the Zimbabwe School Health Policy, the School Financing Policy, and the Inclusive Education Policy (GoZ 2020a:154–155). The strategy has national key result areas with improved access to quality, equitable and inclusive education singled out as being of priority. The aim is to increase the ECD Net Enrolment Rate (NER) from 15.3% in 2020 to 20% in 2025; Junior school NER from 81.2% in 2020 to 86% in 2025 and Secondary School Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) from 58.2% in 2020 to 63% in 2025 (GoZ 2020a:271).

The NDS1 seeks to operationalise the country’s 2013 constitution, which views education as a basic human right and makes provision in Section 19(d) and Section 20(a) for children and the youth to ‘have access to appropriate education and training’ (GoZ 2013b:21). Section 27 obligates the State ‘… to put in place practical measures to promote free and compulsory basic as well as higher and tertiary education.’ It must also ‘…take measures to ensure that girls are afforded the same opportunities as boys to obtain education at all levels’ (GoZ, 2013b:23). Section 75 (1) (a)(b) is emphatic on the rights to education. It explicitly states that ‘…every citizen and permanent resident in the country has a right to a basic State-funded education’ and this includes adult basic education. The state through legislative and other measures is expected to make further education ‘…progressively available and accessible’ (GoZ, 2013b:36). In providing for education, the Constitution in Section 83 also obligates the State to provide special educational facilities and State funded education and training for the for the disabled (GoZ, 2013b:38).

In addition to the constitution, the legislative framework for education in Zimbabwe is guided by the Education Act, Chap. 25:04 of 1987 which has been amended over the years with the most recent being the Education Amendment Act, 2020 aimed at aligning it with the Constitution (GoZ 2020b). The Act like the constitution in Part II, Section 4 states that ‘…every child in Zimbabwe has a right to education,’ and ‘…will not be refused admission or be discriminated against on the basis of race, tribe, place of origin, national or ethnic origin, political opinions, colour, creed or gender’ (GoZ 1987:4). Part II, Section 5, states that the goal of the nation is to make primary education mandatory for all children who are old enough to attend school, and it is the responsibility of parents to make sure their children attend. The Act also makes provision for tuition fees to be kept low and affordable by the Minister, to ensure entitlement by children to enroll at the nearest primary and secondary schools, entitle children to compulsory basic state funded education and it makes it a criminal offence for any parent to deprive children of this basic state funded education. In addition, no exclusion of children is to be made due to pregnancy or failure to pay fees and all schools must, if resources permit provide infrastructure for children with disabilities (GoZ 1987, 2020b). This legislative framework has provided the foundation upon which education policy is formulated and it is worth noting that at its core is the motivation to ensure the provision of basic education, eradicate discrimination and to ensure there are no school dropouts.

The discussion in this section is important for several reasons. It has laid the groundwork for understanding the country’s educational policy trajectory in the colonial and post-colonial era. A critical part of the discussion has been the successes and challenges witnessed in the education system, which have in various ways influenced educational outcomes. The discussion has also outlined several policies and legislation in place that guides contemporary policies in education. From a TSP perspective, the TRSP and NDS1 are of particular significance. They provide a foundation for understanding the issue of OOSC in Zimbabwe, which is central to the research questions posed by this article. They highlight the importance of a stable economy and a comprehensive framework for sustainable development as key in addressing economic disparities and promoting financial inclusion, which impact on education access. A stable economy is considered as enabling increased funding for education, improved infrastructure, and access to education, leading to the potential reduction of OOSC. Both strategies emphasise education as a key pillar and advocate for the enhancement of its access, quality, and equity. They thus provide a foundation, from a TSP perspective, for the utility of policy in fostering transformative change and, in this case, responding to the challenge of OOSC. The question which then arises is the prevalence of OOSC, a thorny and critical issue which is highlighted in most strategic plans and policies of government. This issue is looked at in the next section.

The study was primarily interested in understanding the prevalence, causes and geographical context of OOSC. From a TSP perspective, this was considered crucial for multiple reasons. Comprehending the prevalence, causes and spatial distribution was seen as significant from a policy standpoint, as it would enable an assessment of the problem’s scale, root causes and geographical nuances. High prevalence rates and identifying root causes could indicate systemic issues and barriers that necessitate immediate interventions and advocate for the promotion of inclusivity in education. This understanding could guide resource allocation, program planning, and targeted interventions. Consequently, policymakers could formulate targeted, evidence-based policies that transform educational systems. It was in this context that the study focused on OOSC prevalence, causal factors, and geographical context.

On 27 April 2022, a headline on VOA News read ‘UNICEF: Nearly 50% of Zimbabwean youth not in school’ (Mavhunga 2022). The news report had gone on to explain that a report by UNICEF had indicated that nearly half of the country’s youth were not in school and this was attributed to poverty and had been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Before the pandemic, it was reported that 21% of Zimbabwean youth were not in school and in 2022 it had risen to 47% (Mavhunga 2022). Equally worrying was a headline in the NewsDay of 15 April 2022 which had a headline that said ‘840 000 children drop out of school’. Quoting a United States embassy report on the 2021 state of human rights in Zimbabwe, the newspaper had reported that ‘… an estimated 840,000 schoolchildren have quit school since 2020 following the outbreak of COVID-19.’ This figure and report were disputed by the Government of Zimbabwe, which said the figures were ‘highly inflated’ and ‘the report fed into the hostile US agenda against Zimbabwe’ (Mangwaya 2022; US State Department 2022). However, another news report by the NewsDay on 14 October 2023 had an equally worrying headline that ‘60% learners drop out of school due to drugs’. A collaborative research study undertaken by UNICEF, the government, and some local civil society organisations revealed that drug use was causing students to drop out of school, which in turn was creating a vicious cycle of poverty and crime (Buwerimwe 2023). It is worth noting that while the three stories presented alarming statistics on the prevalence of school dropouts, the proposed underlying causes according to these sources tended to differ, and the data has been disputed.

The high incidence of OOSC in Zimbabwe, as reported by media and development organisations, necessitates a deeper analysis of the underlying dynamics causing it. The reality that only 15% of children complete upper secondary education, despite 89% completing primary school (UNICEF 2022), is of significant concern. This discrepancy suggests that there are systemic issues within the education sector that lead to high dropout rates and delayed completion at the lower and secondary levels. It can be argued however that challenges extend beyond these statistics and narratives. The fragmentation, lack of centralisation, and non-harmonisation of OOSC data can contribute to divergent narratives and interpretations. This is not a challenge unique to Zimbabwe but is a global issue. Over-reliance on administrative data, which can be incomplete, inaccurate, and mismatched (UNESCO 2022; UNICEF 2022), further complicates the situation. The use of administrative and population data can lead to contradictions and biases, especially when data is manipulated to support specific agendas, narratives, and interests. The role of politics and ideology in influencing data interpretation cannot be overlooked.

Recognising the above-mentioned challenges, the UN has advocated for the use of multiple data sources, including administrative data, population data, and household surveys, since 2015. This approach, initially implemented for health indicators, has now been expanded to include education (UNESCO 2022). In the case of Zimbabwe, the presence of contradictory data does not invalidate it. Instead, it highlights the importance of understanding the methodologies used and the reasons for data collection and use. This article, therefore, uses different data sources to provide a comprehensive picture of OOSC prevalence in the country.

By analysing these factors, we can begin to understand the complexities of the OOSC issue in Zimbabwe and globally. This understanding is crucial for developing effective strategies and interventions to address this pressing issue from a TSP perspective. The urgency of continuous contemporary research to look deeper into the systemic issues within the education sector and the role of data in shaping our understanding and response to the scourge of OOSC is of vital importance.

The data from UNICEF’s MICS (in Table 1 below) underscores the critical issue of OOSC in Zimbabwe, with more than 895,000 children being out of school (UNICEF 2022). This figure is not just a statistic, but it represents a multitude of lost opportunities for OOSC while presenting a significant challenge for the country’s education system. The data reveals that there is a complex interplay of factors contributing to the challenge of OOSC. An example is that gender disparity in OOSC rates at different educational levels suggests that gender-specific factors may influence school attendance and dropout rates. The dramatic shift in gender disparity at the upper secondary level, where the OOSC rate for males can be seen jumping from 76% compared to 65% females, warrants further investigation into the underlying causes.

From Table 1, geographical disparities are evident, with children from rural areas and certain provinces, such as Matabeleland North, being disproportionately affected. This suggests that location-specific factors, such as access to schools, quality of education, and socio-economic conditions, play a significant role in shaping OOSC rates. The high OOSC rates among children from the poorest quintiles indicates that economic factors are a major barrier to education. This raises questions about the effectiveness of existing policies in addressing economic disparities and their impact on education. From a TSP perspective it can be argued that this data motivates the urgency to develop targeted interventions and policies, grounded in a transformative approach. For instance, strategies could be developed to address gender and geographical disparities in OOSC rates. In addition, efforts should be made to understand and tackle the economic barriers to education. While the data provides a valuable snapshot of the OOSC issue in Zimbabwe, a more analytical approach is useful in uncovering the specific underlying causes of high out of school prevalence as well as geographical and gender disparities which can be useful in informing more effective strategies to address the challenge of OOSC.

The data reveals a concerning trend that as children progress through each level of the educational system, the disparity between wealth quintiles widens. The incidence of OOSC in the lowest wealth quintiles significantly surpasses the national average. This disparity becomes more pronounced in the lower secondary age group, particularly among the poorest (37%) and rural residents (27%). The situation escalates at the upper secondary level, where 80% of children in the poorest quintile and over half from the richest quintile are out of school (UNICEF 2022:18). Despite constituting only 20% of the population, children from the bottom wealth quintile are disproportionately represented among OOSC at both primary and secondary levels. When expressed in ratios, the influence of wealth dynamics becomes more apparent. Children from the richest quintile are 1.3 times more likely to complete primary education, five times more likely to complete lower secondary education, and an overwhelming 37 times more likely to complete upper secondary education compared to children from the poorest quintile (UNICEF 2022:3).

These figures suggest an urgent need to address systemic issues that perpetuate educational inequality. The overlapping vulnerabilities in the context of rural, poor, province, and gender creates a complex web of challenges that are often overlooked when these factors are considered in isolation. Understanding these intersecting vulnerabilities is crucial for designing effective policy interventions. Based on empirical evidence unearthed in the study, it can be argued that targeted policies could potentially address the specific needs of rural, poor children, who are at a higher risk of becoming OOSC. Further studies are imperative to uncover the root causes of these disparities and inform evidence-based strategies for educational reform (see Cochrane and Rao 2019).

As we look at the prevalence of OOSC and some of the factors which contribute to it, it is important to consider administrative and population data which also shows OOSC trajectories and causes. In Zimbabwe, the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education (MoPSE) produces annual education reports which contain rich empirical data that highlights several variables on the provision of education, and they are useful for assessing, measuring, and evaluating teaching and learning efficiency and effectiveness. They also provide evidence-based information which is critical for planning purposes. While the data presented above is useful in getting an overall picture of OOSC, we validate this in conjunction with the administrative data from the MoPSE to get a more detailed understanding of school dropouts at the source, which are the schools and the reasons for these.

In its 2021 and 2022 annual reports, the MoPSE provides data on OOSC with a specific focus on school dropouts (MoPSE 2020, 2022, 2023). School dropouts are learners from a cohort who enter in a certain grade at a particular school during a calendar year but for different reasons, they no longer enrol the following year. From a TSP perspective, understanding the prevalence and causes of school dropouts was considered important for the study. It was seen being useful in elaborating the dynamics of equity and access; quality of education; economic impact; social mobility; legal dynamics among other issues. These are critical as they assist policy makers to identify disparities in access to education and root causes of school dropouts. They help in proposing improvements in teaching methods, curriculum and school infrastructure and are useful pointers of how school dropouts affect human capital development and the social mobility of marginalised groups. This motivates the development of initiatives addressing productivity and competitiveness issues that affect the economy due to school dropouts and empowerment initiatives for the marginalised. These issues are of critical importance from a TSP perspective.

An analytical examination of the data from 2018 to 2022 (Table 2 and 3) reveals a distinct trend in the dropout rates of primary and secondary schools. The dropout rate for primary schools exhibited a consistent annual decrease, falling from 0.61% in 2018 to 0.44% in 2022 (MoPSE 2022, 2023). This represents a reduction of approximately 28% over the four-year period, indicating a positive trend in primary education retention. In contrast, the dropout rates for secondary schools could be seen presenting a more complex pattern. The rate decreased from 3.41% in 2018 to 3.28% in 2020, but then experienced a notable increase to 4.67% in 2021. This surge was followed by a slight decrease to 4.44% in 2022. The overall increase from 2018 to 2022 is approximately 30%, which contrasts with the decreasing trend in primary schools. The spike in secondary school dropouts in 2021 is attributed to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic (MoPSE 2023:127). Tables 2 and 3 provide information on school dropouts by level of education, their number and percentage as well as reasons for dropping out.

The analysis of the data from Tables 2 and 3 reveals a trend of increasing school dropout rates as learners progress through higher educational levels. This trend aligns with observations made by UNICEF (2022). In the primary school level, the dropout rate is higher among boys compared with girls. This trend however reverses in secondary school, were more girls drop out. An example of this is that in 2021, the number of girls who dropped out of school was 29,593, compared to 21,151 boys. The situation worsened in 2022, with 34,430 girls dropping out compared to 15,412 boys. This represents a 16.35% increase in the number of girls dropping out of school between 2021 and 2022. Due to the lack of empirical evidence explaining why more boys drop out at the primary level, the MoPSE has called for more research into this issue. Factors such as child labour^{Footnote 1}, religious beliefs, and inability to pay school fees have been identified as major contributors to the higher dropout rate among boys at the primary level (ZimStat 2021; MoPSE 2022, 2023).

The high dropout rate among girls, particularly at the secondary level, is attributed to challenges such as pregnancy and child, early and forced marriage (CEFM)^{Footnote 2}. These issues have been observed across different contexts and geographical locations in the country (Iritani et al. 2016; Chamberlaine et al. 2023). In addition to CEFM and pregnancies, other factors contributing to school dropouts include financial challenges, absconding, child labour, expulsion, illness, death, and special needs at schools (US State Department 2022, 2023). These factors are particularly relevant given the high levels of poverty and precarious livelihoods in the country. Interestingly, despite the high prevalence of drug and substance abuse in the country, which the media and non-state actors have highlighted as a major contributor to school dropouts, this issue is not listed (Lupande 2018; Buwerimwe 2023; UNICEF 2023a, b). This omission highlights the complexity of the OOSC problem in Zimbabwe. The data from MoPSE corroborates the observations made by UNICEF (2022), identifying financial challenges, pregnancy, and CEFM as major contributors to OOSC. This challenge is compounded by shortfalls in the government’s education spending (US State Department 2022, 2023). These findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted nature of the school dropout problem in Zimbabwe, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to address the specific challenges faced by boys and girls at different educational levels.

OOSC prevalence: findings from the Zimbabwe population and household census

The Zimbabwe Population and Household Census (PHC) of 2022 provides a comprehensive data source on OOSC in the country. When interpreted in conjunction with administrative and survey data, the PHC offers additional validation for existing data and insights into the OOSC phenomenon. The PHC focuses on individuals aged 4–24, categorised as being of school-going age. The census reveals that out of 6,886,403 individuals in this age group, 71.4% are attending school. A gender-based analysis of the data shows that out of 3,887,501 males, 72.7% are attending school, leaving 27.3% who are not attending. Among 3,948,902 females, 70.2% are reported as attending school, while 29.8% are not attending school (ZimStat 2022:5). These findings align with those noted in the UNICEF MICS survey and the administrative data from the MoPSE.

The PHC also highlights the geographical dynamics of OOSC. In rural areas, out of 4,297,021 school-age individuals, 72% are attending school, while 28% are not. In contrast, in urban areas, out of 2,589,382 school-age individuals, 70% are attending school, and 30% are not. This data suggests a higher prevalence of OOSC in urban areas compared to rural areas. The PHC goes on to present specific data on primary and lower secondary ages who are out of school. At the primary level, 9.6% are out of school, comprising 10.3% males and 8.9% females. In the lower secondary ages, 16.6% are out of school, comprising 17.2% males and 16.1% females (ZimStat 2022). This data presents a slightly different narrative from other data sets, which show a higher prevalence of female dropouts at the secondary level (both lower and upper) as opposed to males.

PHC provides information on some of the major reasons of school dropouts. Table 4 provides a summary of the reasons for school dropouts with financial constraints being stated as a cause for nearly half of all cases. Findings on the causes of school dropouts have striking similarities with findings presented by the MoPSE in its annual statistical reports, but they also present alternative insight and narratives on the different dynamics of OOSC in Zimbabwe. Information from the PHC is critical in providing us with wider lenses for understanding the OOSC phenomenon.

From a TSP perspective, it can be noted that the discussion above and information contained in Table 4 provides us with intervention points that can be targeted to address the challenge of OOSC. These intervention points are critical as a point of reference which policy makers, government authorities and civil society organisations can use in attempts to mitigate the scourge of OOSC. Financial challenges, CEFM and pregnancy related issues are shown as contributing to high levels of school dropouts and these need to be targeted. Geographical disparities are noted with each area having its unique challenges and dynamics which contribute to OOSC prevalence. These are intervention points which are worth targeting. These findings illustrate the complexity of the OOSC, highlighting the need for a transformative policy approach that is multifaceted and considers gender, geographical location, poverty, conservative social norms and age group in addressing the OOSC problem. It also emphasises the importance of utilising multiple data sources to gain a comprehensive understanding of the OOSC dynamics which in turn influences policy making and interventions.

The three data sources, UNICEF MICS, MoPSE administrative data, and the PHC, provide a comprehensive understanding of the OOSC prevalence in Zimbabwe. The data reveals common trends such as changes in OOSC prevalence with education level, gender disparities, and the influence of wealth, geography, and societal norm and dynamics. Differences however exist in interpretation and the identified factors which are contributing to the challenge of OOSC. Some of the key issues which are raised include findings that high OOSC prevalence is significantly influenced by gender, geography, poverty and wealth. These factors should be considered when developing interventions. Financial challenges, CEFM, and pregnancy-related issues are seen as contributing to high dropout levels and should be targeted. Geographical disparities also exist, and this is an area which is unique, presenting challenges which ultimately contribute to high OOSC prevalence.

When one utilises the TSP framework, it can be argued that these data sources provide critical intervention points for policymakers, government authorities, civil society and international organisations to address the challenge of OOSC. The complexity of the problem calls for a multifaceted approach in mitigation efforts. TSP can play a significant role in addressing these challenges. It can be used to focus on systemic change, and it can help to create an enabling environment that addresses the root causes of school dropouts. This includes policies that tackle financial challenges confronting children and families, CEFM, and pregnancy-related issues, which are major contributors to school dropouts. Furthermore, TSP can help address geographical disparities by tailoring interventions to the unique challenges and dynamics of each area. This comprehensive and systemic approach can significantly reduce the prevalence of OOSC in Zimbabwe.

Policy trajectories and education

The previous sections primarily focused on the prevalence, causes and spatial dynamics of OOSC and there was a discussion of several issues that provide valuable insights into the phenomenon. In addition to these issues, in the study it was considered important to examine a related but critical issue which is the impact of recent policy trajectories on the education sector in Zimbabwe and, consequently, on OOSC. This issue was deemed important against a backdrop where the country has committed in recent years to support, provide for, and fund education in accordance with the Zimbabwe Constitution, Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the Education Act, the SDGs, and Agenda 2063. A starting point for the discussion was the recent political transition in Zimbabwe which to some extent can be seen as having sparked a renewed commitment to ensuring inclusive, quality education. This can be as evidenced by policy commitments made through the TRSP and now reinforced through the NDS1. However, despite these commitments and enthusiasm, funding for education remains a significant barrier to achieving set goals (US State Department 2022, 2023).

From a TSP perspective, the current situation highlights a critical concern which is the lack of synergy between social and economic policy. Education, a welfare-oriented policy, is not prioritised in the existing system of social provisioning, which is segmented, stratified, and segregated is one adapts the lenses of Fischer (2018). The former Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education (MoPSE) highlighted this funding challenge, with the Government of Zimbabwe committing to allocate 20% of the national budget to education by 2025, as agreed internationally (UNICEF 2023a, b). In 2023, the education sector was allocated 15% of the total national budget, representing 2.3% of GDP, a slight increase from 2.1% in 2021 (UNICEF 2023a, b). However, this increase was seen as lower in absolute value compared to both previous years and the sector requirements (UNICEF 2023a, b). A major challenge in fiscal support is that most of the funding is consumed for human resources and administration purposes, leaving little for core education activities as per the mandate of the MoPSE. This challenge raises concerns about redistribution issues, governance, and the underlying structural and systemic weaknesses from a TSP perspective.

While these funding challenges persist, they exist in a context where the State emphasises neo-liberal trajectories in contemporary policymaking. It remains unclear how the current administration will balance and accommodate its policy goals in the field of education, as demonstrated by its pledge to provide subsidies and free basic primary education, within a larger policy trajectory with neo-liberal ideological foundations (Makopa 2022). The Zimbabwean government runs the Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM), an initiative to support approximately 1.8 million poor children and orphans with exam fees and school tuition (UNICEF 2023a, b). BEAM, however, faces numerous challenges, including underfunding, delayed payments, and contestations over selection processes (Maushe 2019:3–4). As the cost of education increases without adequate support, it is unsurprising that the number of children and youth facing financial constraints end up dropping out of school. Inadequate fiscal support and the need for robust social protection initiatives raise concerns and this supports the suggestions by the TSP framework for the need for a synergistic and redistributive relationship between social and economic policy. The redistribution of economic resources to social service provision, including education, to ensure a fair fiscal compact, social justice, and equity, thus becomes a policy imperative.

Crises dynamics and OOSC

As indicated earlier, Zimbabwe has not been spared from the intersecting crises that has confronted the world in recent times. Considering this, the study sought to better understand how this has implicated on the OOSC phenomenon. As a starting point it is worth noting that the World Food Programme (WFP) characterises Zimbabwe as a low-income, food-deficit country, with 42% of the population living in extreme poverty. It was projected that in 2022–2023, 3.8 million people would face food insecurity, with 1.5 million urban dwellers (29% of the urban population) experiencing cereal insecurity (WFP 2023). These figures illustrate the severity of the situation, which has persisted for decades and has negatively impacted on education provision. The 2022 Global Hunger Index classified the situation in Zimbabwe as ‘serious’, ranking it at number 13th globally (von Grebmer et al. 2022). Furthermore, the 2021/22 Human Development Index placed Zimbabwe at 146th out of 191 countries (UNDP 2022). These rankings highlight the dire situation in the country and show that Zimbabwe is facing a multitude of crises that have far-reaching implications, particularly for education. Macro-economic challenges, driven by high inflation and the adverse effects of climate change, can be seen as being key contributors to the broader causes of OOSC in the country, exacerbating poverty, vulnerability, and precarity. The data presented earlier this article demonstrates that financial challenges, poverty, and related social ills, which are consequences of a turbulent economic environment, are major contributors to OOSC and these can be linked to the interlocking crises that has been witnessed in the country. These issues are prevalent in both rural and urban Zimbabwe and have a negative impact on the education sector.

From a TSP perspective, these challenges necessitate a critical reflection on the social policy architecture in a development context, especially in relation to education. The objectives of TSP stimulate a reflection on the utility of a synergistic relationship between economic and social policy, and the need for policies that enhance the productive and reproductive capacities of citizens to ensure their wellbeing. A multi-sectoral approach that addresses the issues fuelling OOSC is critical. This approach differs from current siloed approaches and can help overcome the prevalence of OOSC, address some of the root causes of OOSC, and redress geographical factors and imbalances that have led to regional disparities in the distribution of OOSC. This is particularly important in regions where the numbers of OOSC are excessively high.

Proactive protection mechanisms

For the study what was observed as being equally important was that the Covid-19 pandemic underscored the importance of proactive social protection mechanisms that anticipate and respond to life cycle risks and systemic shocks, which have been shown to negatively impact education provision and increase the prevalence of OOSC. For Zimbabwe, Covid-19 stands accused of exacerbating the already challenging situation of OOSC and it was no different from a global context where in two years an estimated 147 million children (mainly from poor and disadvantaged backgrounds) had missed out on face-to-face tuition with fears that prolonged absence from school would result in a higher likelihood of dropping out and not returning (UNESCO 2020; Jones et al. 2021). This presents a reality that pandemics can present unforeseen challenges. The need for proactive protection mechanisms to be integrated into policy development and implementation if one takes into consideration lessons learnt from the pandemic needs to be emphasised and this is important in a context of recurring crises.

In Zimbabwe, the study noted that while educational policies and legislation are in place (with an underlying protection agenda), supported by a commitment to international conventions and global goals, socio-cultural practices and religions continue to play significant roles in the education sector. Some of these practices, such as early marriages and pregnancies, contribute negatively to the prevalence of OOSC, particularly at the secondary school level. The government’s enactment of the Education Amendment Act of 2020, which includes provisions for the re-entry of pregnant girls and adolescent mothers into school (GoZ 2020b), can be viewed as a promising initiative towards improving access to education for the girl child and reducing OOSC. However, the continued rise in the number of OOSC due to early marriages and pregnancies indicates deficiencies in the policy and legislative framework, as well as a lack of community involvement.

From a TSP perspective, these challenges raise serious issues and concerns related to social justice, social cohesion, nation-building, and social reproduction. This necessitates an urgent review of preventative and mitigatory interventions, ensuring synergy between various policies and the legislative framework. Equally important is the participation of stakeholders to address cross-cutting socio-cultural, traditional, and religious dynamics contributing to high OOSC levels. When one analysis the available evidence, it suggests that there is need for a more holistic approach that not only addresses the symptoms but also the underlying socio-cultural and systemic factors contributing to the high OOSC prevalence.

The need for a social contract

The issues raised in the discussion in the preceding sections raises critical issues in relation to the dynamics of OOSC in Zimbabwe with its high prevalence being of major concern. It necessitates a comprehensive examination of the effectiveness of the existing policy and legislative framework. This examination should also include a reconsideration of how these mechanisms can be enhanced. The policy and legislative framework on education, which is grounded in empirical data, can serve as the basis for establishing a social contract to address the OOSC issue. This social contract aims to foster a relationship between the state, citizens, and other stakeholders that prioritises the fulfilment of rights and obligations, as well as the promotion of social justice in relation to the right to education. Such a contract, which is predicated on negotiation, is essential as evidence from Zimbabwe suggests. The primary objective of this proposed contract when looked at from a TSP perspective is the reform and transformation of institutions and structures that can be utilised to mitigate the challenge of OOSC. These institutions and structures delineate the vertical and horizontal relationships between citizens and the State. Contrary to the current situation where interventions to tackle the OOSC challenges are fragmented, the establishment of a social contract can encourage a unified approach to addressing the challenge of OOSC. This approach is supported by the TSP, which emphasises human rights, a fair fiscal contract that advocates for the equitable distribution of the financial burden, and interventions aimed at transforming the economy and society. Having such measures in place can potentially and collectively promote social inclusion and equality, transform, and reconfigure relations between the state and citizens, and effectively address the scourge of OOSC. In the context of Zimbabwe, the success of these interventions will hinge on a participation by all stakeholders and, more importantly the need of political will cannot be overemphasised.

This article has provided a comprehensive exploration of the OOSC phenomenon in Zimbabwe. It has revealed that there is a high prevalence of OOSC, and this is attributable to a confluence of crises including poverty, inequality, economic collapse, climate stress, and ecological challenges. These disrupt basic services and developmental milestones, leading to school dropouts. While Zimbabwe’s efforts to address OOSC through policy implementation are commendable, challenges persist, particularly in funding. Deep-seated structural issues, such as wealth disparities, gender issues, religious influence, geographical disparities, socio-cultural issues, CEFM, teenage pregnancies, child labour, poverty, conservative social norms among others, contribute to high OOSC prevalence rates and must be considered in policy development and implementation. The transformation of discriminatory social institutions and practices, as well as unequal power relations, is crucial. A new social contract fostering equality, cooperative power relations, and the affirmation of people’s capabilities, aspirations, dignity, critical awareness, and collective agency is proposed as an essential step in fostering transformative change in the provision of quality and inclusive education.

The article has emphasised the urgency of the country to adopt a TSP approach involving a fair fiscal contract and adequate financial support, aimed at redistributing resources from the economic to the social sector. This includes increased investment in education, pro-poor policies, support for disadvantaged families, and initiatives discouraging CEFM and teenage pregnancies. In addition, policy interventions should extend beyond education to address financial hardships, enhance individual and community capabilities, tackle inequalities, and be gender-sensitive and rights-based. These interventions should be evidence-based, utilise diverse data sources, and foster solidarity, sustainability, and inclusivity.

In conclusion, the study highlights the need for a social policy-oriented approach in the education sector that prioritises strategic development interventions and transformation. This approach is key in addressing the complex and interlinked challenges contributing to the high prevalence of OOSC in Zimbabwe.