Luca Ranieri

Analyzing the Credit Outlook for 2024 by Cerved Rating Agency 𝗘𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆 FY 2024 starts with ongoing challenges, including persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a continuation of the economic uncertainties seen in 2023. Despite these hurdles, there are indications of slight improvements in the overall credit risk profile of Italian NFCs, with the probability of default (PD) expected to decrease marginally from 6.22% in December 2023 to 6.13% by the end of 2024 under the baseline scenario. 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿-𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝙎𝙚𝙧𝙫𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨: The services sector is poised for a significant improvement in its credit risk profile, with a projected 4.4% reduction in PD. This improvement is driven by stabilizing real incomes and increased business confidence, especially in tourism, accommodation, and food services. 𝙈𝙖𝙣𝙪𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜: A modest decline in default probability is expected for the manufacturing sector. Despite challenges such as high competition and transitional ESG risks, the sector benefits from strong domestic demand and export diversification . 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙡 𝙀𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙚: The outlook remains stable, with larger players benefiting from National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) funds. However, smaller businesses focused on residential construction may face higher default rates due to reduced government bonuses . 𝘼𝙜𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙏𝙚𝙭𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚: These sectors are expected to experience slight increases in PD due to idiosyncratic risks, high commodity price volatility, and climate change impacts . 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 The report employs a three-scenario framework to project the evolution of credit risk: 𝘽𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙨𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙤: Predicts a manageable persistence of geopolitical tensions, gradual economic recovery in the second half of 2024, and improved credit risk conditions due to lower inflation and interest rate cuts . 𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙨𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙤: Assumes worsening economic conditions, potential conflict escalations, delayed rate cuts, and significant impacts from persistent geopolitical tensions, leading to a higher PD of 6.39% . 𝙃𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙨𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙤: Envisions severe economic and geopolitical deterioration, resulting in a stagflationary environment, new interest rate hikes, and a sharp increase in PD to 6.82% . #CreditRisk #EconomicOutlook #2024Forecast #CervedRatingAgency #BusinessStrategy #università #economia https://lnkd.in/dpgUH-Cv

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𝗘𝗖𝗕 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝗴𝘀 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗶𝗻 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗢𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗹 The ECB has voiced concerns over UniCredit's high management turnover rate since CEO Andrea Orcel's appointment in 2021. The bank's frequent leadership changes, higher than other Italian banks like Intesa Sanpaolo, could impact operational stability and succession planning, risking delays in key strategies like digital banking transitions. #finance #news #UniCredit #ECB #BankingRisk Source:- https://lnkd.in/dGDrXE37

Yesterday at Institute of International Finance 2024 European Summit on The Future of European Finance with Maya Atig, PietroCarlo Padoan UniCredit and Sonja Gibbs, CFA. A conversation notably on the worldwide landscape on transition finance. Three thoughts regarding the question of the evolution of engagement and stewardship by investors to encourage corporates to transform their business models: - It works and progresses are real: 67% additional companies with Science Based Targets initiative commitments in 2023. - Progresses are also notable in emerging economies, 13% of companies have validated climate commitments vs 6% in 2022. In China, 15% of companies in MSCI have a validated climate commitment vs 1% in 2022. - To keep the momentum and go faster, efforts of all investors are needed, worldwide. Collective action and cooperation are the only way forward.

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We are excited to announce the launch of ¨ESG Expert Advisor®¨ - the second level of #efpa #esg certification created specifically for financial advisors and financial planners. EFPA Italy is among the first to start the training and examinations, to be followed soon by other local EFPA. This ¨expert¨ level qualification drills deeper into the practical aspects advisors have to handle when dealing with ESG-concerned investors. Find out more here: https://smpl.is/9aa4j #financialplanning #esg #esginvestment

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We are excited to announce the launch of ¨ESG Expert Advisor®¨ - the second level of #efpa #esg certification created specifically for financial advisors and financial planners. EFPA Italy is among the first to start the training and examinations, to be followed soon by other local EFPA. This ¨expert¨ level qualification drills deeper into the practical aspects advisors have to handle when dealing with ESG-concerned investors. Find out more here: https://smpl.is/9aa4i #financialplanning #esg #esginvestment

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GlobalCapital sees it… We say grazie mille to all our ECM clients who ask BNP Paribas CIB to lead in Italy Salvatore Branca Stefano Mariorenzi Ioana-Sabina Onofrei Luigi Di Maro Valeria Chillè Marco Lattuada Vittorio Ogliengo Valerio Fabretti Massimiliano Armellini and many many more #equitycapitalmarkets #bnpp4clients

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"In the contemporary landscape of business transformation, the concept of the Twin Transition has emerged as a pivotal paradigm for SME companies. This notion encapsulates the simultaneous journey both towards sustainability and digitalization within organizations; a journey that, as Intesa Sanpaolo, we firmly support" affirmed Alice Grittini, Head of ESG Business Acceleration, during the Networking Talks’ event THE TWIN TRANSITION OF SMEs: DIGITALIZATION AND SUSTAINABILITY ON A PARALLEL PATH, organized by Intesa Sanpaolo’s Institutional Affairs ISB and International Subsidiary Banks Division Corporate and SME. Watch the full event: https://ow.ly/6ZFP30sCnO7 #intesasanpaolo #isbd #networkingtalks #twintransition #esg #sme #digitalization #sustainability

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"How to enhance the role of macroprudential authorities in monitoring interconnectedness, deploying macroprudential tools and ensuring cross-border coordination within the EU”? This was the main theme of the panel I have attended in Brussels, a whole day of technical workshop organised by the European Commission to contribute to the international debate on macroprudential policies for NBFI (Non-Bank Financial Intermediation).     This event follows the adoption in January 2024 of the Commission report https://lnkd.in/enpyNfEE on the macroprudential review for credit institutions, the systemic risks and vulnerabilities of NBFI, and the interconnectedness with the banking sector. With the aim to increase stakeholder engagement.   During this panel, I have made the points on the following: 1. There is a strong need to make clear distinction in the wide range of NBFIs. 2. Asset managers are different from banks on many aspects. Accordingly, banking-like macro prudential measures cannot be transposed as such to investment funds and their managers. 3. In addition, these are already highly regulated with investor protection central to this framework. These rules will be extended with additional requirements on liquidity management tools adopted through the revision of the AIFMD and UCITS directive. It is important to wait for effective implementation of these tools and their impact before envisaging any additional requirements in the macro prudential space. 4. A lot is also to be done on data with real sharing between policy makers and effective analysis to get better understanding. 5. The concept of lead supervision with the notion of "group” is going into the right direction. Effective functioning needs however to be further defined to ensure it is relevant to the asset management sector and that interaction between supervisors is well organised. Thanks for this interesting debate! -Tobias Buecheler, Head of Regulatory Affairs, Allianz -Rodrigo Buenaventura, President, Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (Spain) -Mark Cassidy, Director, Financial Stability, Central Bank of Ireland -Steffen Kern, Chief Economist and Head of Risk Analysis, European Securities and Markets Authority -Francesco Mazzaferro, Head of ESRB Secretariat, European Systemic Risk Board -Klaus Wiedner, Director, DG FISMA, European Commission (moderator) More information about the "Targeted consultation assessing the adequacy of macroprudential poliocies for non-bank financial intermediation" https://lnkd.in/eynUwrrD

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FDIs in April are the slowest in 10 months or since June 2023, at the height of risk aversion brought about by geopolitical risks such as the direct attacks between Iran and Israel. Though still wait-and-see if net FDI inflows would revert back to prepandemic levels in the coming months; as a pick up/improvement in FDI data later in 2024 could be supported by the possible local policy rate cut of -0.25 as early as August 2024. https://lnkd.in/g6UE8fZQ

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Call for papers for our annual ECB conference on financial stability on 21 November, after the special event on the 20th anniversary of the ECB Financial Stability Review, with a special issue of the Journal of Financial Stability and Moritz Schularick as keynote speaker - deadline 15 June #financialstability (but do we really know what it is?) https://lnkd.in/e9gEAmkT

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Unicredit (UCG) Æterna Capital presents a compelling investment case for UniCredit (UCG), identifying a favorable re-entry point for the stock within the price range of €24 to €28. This analysis draws on the bank's strong financial fundamentals and strategic positioning within a promising industry. Key Highlights: Robust Management: UniCredit is steered by a seasoned management team, adept at navigating the complexities of the global banking landscape. Strengthened Financial Health: The bank has shown a marked improvement in its capital ratios and balance sheet strength, reflecting prudent risk management and financial resilience. Concerns: Volatility in Market Conditions: The fluctuating trends in asset and loan portfolios reflect ongoing adjustments to market conditions and regulatory frameworks. Economic Sensitivity: As with all banking institutions, UniCredit’s performance is closely tied to economic cycles, impacting its stock valuation and growth projections. Overall: UniCredit operates in a robust industry, backed by a history of adapting to economic shifts and regulatory changes. While the bank's financials show strong fundamentals, the current market valuation suggests that investors have high expectations for its future growth, which may already be factored into its stock price. This makes the proposed buying range particularly strategic, offering potential for appreciation as market conditions evolve. Attached the "Investment Proposal" pitched to Æterna Capital's Virtual Fund Team Leader: Emanuele Gennarelli Analysis by: Andrea Colonnelli, Roberto Castagna, Kristiyan Dzhambazov Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors are advised to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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We confirmed Italy’s sovereign rating at BBB+/Stable. High debt levels will remain a challenge as we expect the country to face the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the euro area within the next three years. European institutional support - especially including Next Generation EU and continued eligibility to the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument will remain crucial. See the links below for the full analysis. #Italy #sovereigndebt #sovereignrating

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