Starting Pitcher 2024 Fantasy Rankings

The volume concerns took a hit with Spencer Strider’s Top 10 IP total (187) and combined with being on an elite team to deliver an MLB-best 20 Ws. That helped mitigate the damage of his 3.86 ERA which is uncharacteristically high for a bona fide ace. Everything in his profile says he’s more of a low-3.00s or even sub-3.00 ERA arm and as such, he’s a first 1st-rounder, consistently going ahead of Cole. They are a toss-up for me despite the big split in their projected dollar value.

Corbin Burnes‘ season feels worse than it actually was when you realize he led the NL in WHIP (1.07) despite it easily being a 3-yr high (combined 0.95 in 2021-22). I think it’s because he started with a pair of dud starts and the perception of him being “off” carried through the remainder of the season. Despite residing on a pretty strong team, he is averaging just 11 Ws since 2021 with a peak of 12. MIL is expected to be worse in 2024, but will Burnes be on the team? Obviously, I’ll update and reassess his outlook if he is indeed moved.

Feb. 2nd Update: A move to BAL does improve his Wins outlook, though not enough to move him ahead of Cole. I do think those who didn’t have Burnes 3rd already should consider moving him up there as he takes his brilliant skillset to a contending team.

Zack Wheeler’s season was a bit Striderized where his 3.61 ERA belied his excellent skills, including his 22% K-BB which ranked 6th among qualified SPs. He reminded everyone that he’s still an unmitigated ace with a 1.95 ERA/0.72 WHIP in 28 playoff IP. He has arguably been the best SP in baseball since joining PHI in 2020 with only Cole and Strider (111) topping his 110 Pitching+ mark.

Top of the scale command and control drive this profile while George Kirby’s arsenal continues to improve, giving him some strikeout upside. His velo and SwStr% both went up in 2023 so while he did experience a 3-pt drop in K%, it’s not hard to envision more Ks that could even surpass the 25% mark from his rookie year. The safer bet is another 190+ IP of a sub-1.05 WHIP which I’ll gladly take even if it comes with a 22-24% K rate.

OK so maybe it wasn’t just Cincy’s park that fueled Luis Castillo’s HR issue? He spiked back up to 1.3 HR9 in his first full season w/SEA, though his 1.10 WHIP ensured that the homers didn’t hurt too much. He might not have passed Cole, but 3 duds (5+ ER) from August on boosted his ERA from 2.88 to 3.34, resulting in a 5th place CY finish. If he brings the HR rate back under 1.0, he could feasibly put up his 2022 rates (2.99 ERA/1.08 WHIP) for 30+ starts.

Logan Webb and Valdez are kind of NL/AL versions of each other, but I have a slight lean toward Webb being 3 yrs younger with better ratios (0.05 ERA edge, 0.06 WHIP) and a markedly better walk rate (5% to 8%) in 22 more IP since 2021. He also gets a slight park edge in SF. Essentially once one goes, that’s my cue to jump for the other.

While Framber Valdez doesn’t tote the gaudy K rates of his peers in this area, his volume does a great job compensating. He reached 200 Ks for the first time, tying with Corbin Burnes for 16th-highest, while falling 2 IP shy of a second straight 200-IP campaign. It is remarkably difficult to truly bet on anything with pitchers, but if you’re looking for a safe innings investment, he is high on the consideration list while his presence on the Astros makes him a strong Wins bet, too.

Pablo López always looked like a stud chasing health and after back-to-back 32 start seasons, it seems he finally caught it. Of course, health is always fleeting with pitchers, but we’ve seen the success and are no longer betting on the come which has him priced higher than ever (38 Fall/Winter ADP). His ERA sits a bit higher than you’d expect from an Ace and his penchant for Duds (5+ ER outing) could be the culprit. His 13 since 2022 are tied for 5th-most with nary a Top 30 entrant to be found among the 10 with at least that many (next best is José Berríos with 14, ranking 32nd on this list). He only had 7 in 52 starts from 2019-21 so this isn’t a chronic issue.

SP10 feels absurdly high for someone with a career-high of 120 IP, but Tyler Glasnow has been one of the game’s best SPs on a per-inning basis since 2019. His 27% K-BB in that time is tied with Cole and behind only Jacob deGrom (32%). Glasnow (333 IP) has 543 fewer innings than Cole since then and even falls 126 short of deGrom despite his own health issues throughout most of that time. His excellence isn’t lost on the early draft market (43 ADP) so be ready to pay if you want to bet on him finding full season health out in LA.

I don’t know if Bobby Miller will reach Acehood in 2024 as it’s just his sophomore campaign, but I’m along for the ride. If he’s good-not-great this year, I’ll be back again in 2025 as I just strongly believe he ends up as a premium frontline starter sooner than later. With the Glasnow and Yamamoto arrivals, he won’t be asked to do too much – not that he couldn’t have handled being the #1 or #2 as Buehler regains his footing and Kershaw heals from injury with a summer return. He has 99 mph heat, a deep arsenal, and down the stretch he started to flex his swing-and-miss capability (28% K in Sept).

While I share in the excitement of this group of potential studs, it does feel a little fraught with danger. Did last year’s 12-13-14 SPs have a combined 324 innings? I’m legitimately asking, I don’t have last year’s ADP handy. Tarik Skubal does at least have a legit full season under his belt with 29 starts back in 2021. Back then the question was “how good can he be with this HR issue?” thanks to a 2.1 HR9. Since then we’ve seen a sparkling 0.6 HR9 (3rd-lowest, min. 170 IP) in 198 IP, yielding a 3.23 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 22% K-BB. He isn’t sneaking up on anyone with a soaring draft stock that has landed him 50th in Fall/Winter ADP. With offseason buzz in every corner of the fantasy world, that could end up looking like a bargain by draft season in March. He obviously needs to stay healthy and if he does, we could see a really special season.

Grayson Rodriguez wasn’t too bad in April (22% K-BB in 24 IP) but then a crazy HR barrage in May (11 in 21 IP) resulted in a demotion where he got right and returned with a vengeance. His 2.58 ERA was 5th-best from July 17th on, thanks to a complete reversal of his HR fortunes with a league-best 0.35 mark. It is worth noting that his K-BB rate dropped to 17% (28th) in that time, but I’m not too concerned as his arsenal is capable of making him a strikeout force and his 13% SwStr (13th) is evidence of that as well. He and Miller look like the next great aces in each league.

Logan Gilbert gets a bit overlooked in a rotation featuring so much talent. I entered 2023 with he and Kirby in a 1/1a situation. Kirby jumped up a level (as evidenced by his Top 10 ranking), but that doesn’t mean Gilbert fell off. A jump in HR rate was the only real blemish on his ledger, moving his ERA up a half run while his K%, BB%, and WHIP all improved. Now that their ADP has split, I see Gilbert as a Kirby backup plan and I’ll gladly take him if I miss out on Kirby with his Top 30 ADP.

Well would you look at that… the Rays went hard after a guy and he turned out to be a stud! It was a full season (31 starts) of skills Zach Eflin had shown throughout his career (2020’s K% and 2021’s BB%). He had a 3.71 SIERA in 240 IP from 2020-22 with a 19% K-BB that earned him some believers, but health had proven elusive as indicated by the IP count (104th in that time). Just his 2nd full season doesn’t erase the injury risk and now he’s a lot more expensive as a Top 100 pick. Plus, it will be tough to repeat the 16 Ws again so while I am a fan of his core skills, I’m not chasing him as much at full price.

It is very difficult to rank Yoshinobu Yamamoto as it’s always hard to know how well someone will do their first year stateside. He brings a lot of excitement and expectation as the top pitcher in the NPB and one of the best ever. He posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 897 IP across seven seasons and he almost certainly won’t directly match those rates with the Dodgers but it wouldn’t be crazy to see a mid-3.00s ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP right away. His Top 60 pricetag will be an automatic deterrent for many and you won’t go broke fading hype like this…… buuutt he just seems too good to flop.Mar. 23rd Update: No, I’m not moving him after the disastrous debut in the Seoul Series. It was literally 1 inning. A bad one, sure, but 1 inning.

Only Justin Verlander (2.46) has a better ERA than Max Fried’s 2.66 mark since 2020 (min. 300 IP). Unfortunately his 485 IP rank 40th thanks in large part to just 78 this past season (hamstring, forearm, blister). Elite control and a groundball lean drives his profile while last year’s 26% K was a welcome surprise. You are mostly betting on health with Fried as the skills are already excellent.

A few early hiccups left Freddy Peralta with a 4.73 ERA through 13 starts as a 1.7 HR9 caused most of the problems. His elite stuff took over in the summer, putting together a 3.21 ERA/0.94 WHIP over his final 95 IP thanks to a blistering 29% K-BB that the best in baseball from June 18th on (narrowly ahead of Spencer Strider). He is still far from a workhorse as his first 30-start season still only brought 166 IP, but he has been undeniably excellent both times he’s stayed upright for a fullish season (144 IP in 2021).

It’s now 2 of Aaron Nola’s last 3 seasons with mid-4.00s ERAs and while his skills have suggested he deserved better in both seasons, we can’t ignore the elevated HR rate in both (1.3 & 1.5, respectively). Meanwhile, the third of those seasons was an excellent 3.25 ERA/0.96 WHIP combo. I can definitely see him rebounding to something like 2022, but there is zero discount (51 ADP) so I’m just not sure I’ll end up with too many shares of him during draft season.

Zac Gallen couldn’t match his ERA/WHIP from 2022, but I don’t think anyone was holding him to another 15-start run of 1.58 like he had to close out that season. It was still a great year and he has set a strong floor that puts him firmly in the Ace tier as a Top-50 pick in Fall/Winter drafts. Even if ARI regresses and takes some Ws off his ledger, he can lead your rotation as a 3rd-5th rd pick depending on your league size. Mar. 7th Update: Like Gausman, I found myself consistently passing over Gallen in my early drafts so I took a deeper dive and came to the conclusion that I’m just not comfortable with what he will look like on the heels of a 244-inning workload including the playoffs. And you should probably put a 1.25-1.5x accelerator on the playoff innings in terms of tax on the arm so then we’re closer something like 250-260 at that point. I’m a longtime Gallen Gal, but I just can’t do it at his elevated price (40 ADP).

Blake Snell walked an impressive tightrope last year, counterbalancing his MLB-worst 13% BB rate with an MLB-best .180 AVG while reaching 180 IP for just the second time in his career and winning his 2nd Cy Young. It’s impossible to predict a repeat of something that precarious even acknowledging that Snell has said plenty of the walks were purposeful. It feels weird to have a reigning Cy Young winner outside the Top 20 but I can’t just let his 2023 decide the 2024 outlook. A lot will depend on where he signs this year so let’s revisit him after that. (How the hell is he STILL unsigned as a Mar. 7th?!?!) Mar. 23rd Update: SF is a great landing spot for Snell with a friendly ballpark and sharp new left side of the infield (Matt Chapman 3B, Nick Ahmed SS), but I essentially ranked him as though he was already signed because we knew he’d eventually land somewhere and it seemed unlikely that it’d be a really bad landing spot. Even NY with the tougher park wouldn’t have caused me to move his rank.

Kevin Gausman shaved 42 pts off his league-worst .363 BABIP from 2022, but unfortunately still finished tied with Charlie Morton for the 2nd-highest mark which again cut into his success a bit. He leans heavily on 2 pitches, one of which is the ever-volatile splitter, so that could be the reason for his BABIP consistency. His 31% K rate was a full season career-high (32% in 2020) and helped cover for his BB rate that regressed 3 pts back to 7% career mark (which is still excellent, of course). I’m a little nervous about him relative to this tier, but still wouldn’t let him go beyond pick 35-40 in a given draft. Mar. 7th Update: The nerves have come to fruition in my drafts as I’ve consistently passed him over and consistently let him go beyond that 35-40 pick range I mentioned in the initial write-up. As such I felt he merited a dip in ranking. I’m open to taking him as a #2 in the right situation, but I’m not comfortable with him as my ace. — Believe it or not, I had this update slated to go out Feb. 25th, but I only had a couple things updated so I wanted to wait for a bigger set of updates. Since then, Gausman has been battling a bit of a shoulder issue which only furthers my resolve in moving him down. I just don’t see myself drafting him at this juncture, especially at an SP8 price tag.

Joe Musgrove is a good example of why I’m so reluctant to label any pitcher as “safe” when it comes to their health. As trite as it sounds, everyone is just a pitch away from injury. After 30+ starts in the last 3 full seasons (’19, ’21, ’22), he opened the season with a fractured toe and then a shoulder injury ate up the final two months. He was still excellent when pitching and he’s expected to be fine for 2024, but make sure to monitor him as Spring Training gets started.

They didn’t go in order, but Dylan Cease’s last 3 seasons have been the high-medium-low outcomes of this skillset. The high being 2022’s standout 2.20 ERA/1.11 WHIP, the medium was 3.91/1.25 back in 2021, and the low was last season’s 4.58/1.42. All 3 easily eclipsed 200 Ks with 30+ starts in each. The tough part about the low coming after the high is how much he cost last season, but the results weren’t that surprising. But now that he’s back outside the Top 100, I’m buying. I would love to see him traded out of Chicago and will definitely write a bit more about him if he is eventually moved this winter. Mar. 7th Update: I was anticipating a trade out of Chicago to help his Wins total and while it could still happen before Opening Day, we’re in the throes of draft season now and I’m not going to load up on him in case he’s stuck there for half the year. Mar. 13th Update: Cease has been dealt to the Padres!! The lineup and bullpen support upgrades are enough to push him up as I was already interested in a rebound thanks to his excellent swing-and-miss stuff.

If you’ve ever seen one of Joe Ryan’s duds, you know his concern focuses squarely on his home run allowance. Even when he’s on, he will allow some HRs but they are usually solo shots. The off days will often bring the multi-run HRs. He had 6 Duds (5+ ER outing) last yr and allowed at least 2 HR in all of them. The worst of ’em was a 7 ER meltdown in St. Louis when they clocked him for 4, including a 3-run shot by Alec Burleson. It’s hard to go against a one-time favorite, but as a Top 100 pick now, I find myself just waiting and taking Ober nearly 60 picks later.

Incredible HR suppression (MLB-best 0.4 HR9) paired with his highest IP total since 2015 yielded a career year for Sonny Gray and it couldn’t have come at a better time given his pending free agency. The incredible effort earned him a 3-yr/$75 million dollar deal from the Cards (+ a 4th yr tm option). Busch Stadium isn’t a bad place to go if you are looking to curb the impending regression on your HR rate as the 90 park factor for homers is 22nd in the league. I definitely see some homer regression coming, but to me the bigger question is the IP total. Will he put up another full season or be in the 120-140 IP range? Mar. 7th Update: A hamstring strain has put Opening Day in peril for him, but it’s being viewed as a minor setback and doesn’t greatly alter my outlook on him for 2024 as I was never planning for another 184 in the first place. I’m still open to drafting him, just giving him a slight bump down as I prefer a couple others ahead of him with the injury.

It might not feel like Justin Steele really broke out in 2023 because his ERA only improved by 12 pts. However, when you look beyond ERA, there is an 18 pt improvement in WHIP down to 1.17 as well as a career-high 173 IP. In terms of Auction Calculator value, the 16 Ws obviously played a huge role in his surge, especially after just 4 in 2022, but we don’t bank on W surges. The skills growth is far more important and his 5 pt jump in K-BB is encouraging. It all came via his BB rate as he had an identical 25% K rate. The concern is that he’s a 2-pitch guy who has just one year of the premium BB rate (5%). The lack of arsenal depth cuts his margin for error and if either pitch is off kilter for periods of time, the walks would likely be the first thing to return.

I’d really like to know if Jesús Luzardo is going to be traded before diving too deeply into him because while I do believe in him as a strong arm, it’s hard to deny how much his home parks have helped him in Oakland and Miami. Sure, he might have a better shot at topping last year’s 10 Ws with a better team, but will it be worth it if he’s in a hitter-friendly home park? Most players are better at home, but it’s a pretty big split for Luzardo: 3.87 ERA/1.22 WHIP at home; 4.68/1.30 road. He’s also young enough to continue developing and maybe cut into a big reason bebind that home/road split: his 1.5 HR9. For now, he’ll sit here as we wait to see if he moves.

We all know the issue Carlos Rodón, everything comes down health. His has been rather nightmarish throughout his career and after back-to-back pretty full seasons (including a career-high 178 IP in 2022), he came crashing back to Earth with just 64. Not only that, but it was 64 baaad innings (6.85 ERA/1.45 WHIP) so you would’ve been better off with 0. The greatness of 2021-22 has me coming back, especially at the discounted price. Remember, he was a consistent Top 35 pick last year and this Fall/Winter, he is down to pick-165. The risk remains, but the Ace-levle upside is worth it here. Mar. 13th Update: I don’t want to overreact to his Spring Training performances and his most recent outing was easily his best (4 IP/1 ER/0 BB/3 K), but I’ve been passing him at his previous ranking in recent drafts, so I’m just dropping him down a little bit.

I’m fully aboard the new Cole Train! I know they needed bullpen and he wasn’t doing well for them, but I’m still surprised the Texas Rangers traded Cole Ragans instead of being more patient to see if he could be the bullpen answer they needed. But hey, trading an interesting prospect for Aroldis Chapman just wins championships! Ragans appears to have come out of nowhere, but he was a former 1st rounder returning from a 2nd Tommy John so it made sense for the Royals to just turn him loose in the rotation even if he had struggled. Instead, he hit the ground running and was a major story in the summer, posting a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 22% K-BB in 72 IP and now finds himself firmly among the Top 40 SPs and just outside the Top 100 overall (SP32, pick 109 in the Winter). The profile looks excellent: upper-90s heater, excellent slider, dominant changeup, elite swing-and-miss stuff, a groundball lean, and a great home park that increases the margin for error in half of his starts.

I originally had Bailey Ober in the Uncut Gems tiers and ranked closer to 40th, but the more I looked at him and Joe Ryan, the more I figured I either had to move Ryan down or Ober up and I’m plenty comfortable moving Ober up. He has over 100 fewer IP since 2022, but he has a 20% K-BB to Ryan’s 21%, his 1.06 WHIP is 8 pts better than Ryan’s, and his ERA is well below Ryan’s at 3.37 due mostly to their HR disparity (BO: 1.2, JR: 1.5). Ober has strikeout upside he could tap further into and while it was just 56 IP back in 2022, we have at least seen a stretch of HR suppression from him (but I’d be remiss not to mention that it came with a 5% HR/FB).

This is a fun group. A couple of the season’s studs will emerge from here and everyone has their favorites as to who that might be with these top 2 AL Central guys being mine. For the sake of this, I’ll say a stud is a Top 15-20 season so that still leaves room to grow for someone like Tanner Bibee who finished 31st last year. Usually logging 142 IP of a sub-3.00 ERA results in a Rookie of the Year award… unless a 5-WAR Gunnar Henderson emerges onto the scene in the same season! Maintaining an 80% LOB rate will be remarkably difficult so I’m planning for an ERA spike, but he could add upwards of 0.5 runs while raising his Ks and lowering his WHIP in 185+ IP en route to an excellent follow-up season.

While this tier generally includes a host of younger arms capable of taking the leap, the 29-year old Michael King is included because he is a recent starter conversion on the cusp of his first full season in the rotation. There have been some false starts with this transition only to see him back in pen again. An 8-start run to close the season (1.88 ERA/1.10 WHIP) not only had the Yankees ready to make him a rotation fixture, but also garnered enough trade interest that he was moved to SDP in the big Juan Soto deal. He has the elements needed for a breakout with 3 legit pitches — including a nice changeup to keep lefties at bay, strong control, and enough swing-and-miss to maintain an upper-20%s K rate. Innings are a big unknown, but I remember when C.J. Wilson converted to SP at age-29 and jump from an RP workload to four straight 200-IP workloads. Now that’s just 1 case and mind you, I’m not saying King will jump to 200+ IP, but I do believe that if healthy then SD will let him push 150+ IP as I don’t believe a late-20s starter needs to be babied like young-20s prospects.

The one certainty I thought we had with Cristian Javier was his strikeout rate. I was in on Javier so I wasn’t even planning for a worst case scenario, but I likely said something like “well if his ERA surges, at least you’ll definitely get strikeouts and a good chance at wins”. Instead, his K% sank 10 points to a pedestrian 23% which played a major role in his 4.56 ERA/1.27 WHIP that yielded just 10 Ws in 31 starts. There were still glimpses of the projected Javier. Hell, he had a sub-3.00 ERA through his first 12 starts, although the K% was down to 26%. More importantly, he closed with a 4.11/1.09, 32% K, and 9% BB in 31 Sept. IP. Javier showed the volatility of a 2-pitch starter. A lot of us were hoping for a mini-Strider, but instead it ended up like a cheaper Cease situation. He probably won’t get all the way back to his 2022 levels, but I will gladly risk a pick in the 175 range for a shot at his upside.

I’d be surprised if Ryan Pepiot’s slow rise up the draft board this Fall/Winter is because of his trade to Tampa Bay. It’s impossible to say of course because he was traded, but I think it’s more of a natural offseason helium as fantasy managers dive deeper into the past season. I don’t think his rotation spot is more guaranteed with the Rays and of course both teams are known for handling pitchers very well so I’m just as interested in Pep as I was before the trade. It took me a moment to trust his improved control. His incredible 3% BB rate was a shock after seeing double-digit BB rates at every stop prior to 2023. The trade-off was an elevated HR rate (1.5) and that makes sense. His next step to stardom will be improving his command within the zone to curb the longball without just dialing the walks back up.

The core skills are remarkably enticing for Hunter Greene. His 31% K rate (8th, min. 110 IP) and 13% SwStr rate (12th) are incredible, but I just don’t feel confident that his command will be able to tame Great American Ballpark. His 3.52 SIERA since 2022 is ranked 20th (min. 200 IP) but his 1.6 HR9 is 7th highest. I totally understand the excitement around him because it’s easy to dream on a huge season with just a tweak or two, but I’m just not interested in battling that park for half his starts. It’s not quite a Coors Field situation and Greene is better than anyone the Rockies have rolled out in… forever?… but he will remain a tease unless he finds a way to cut those HRs.

Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are kind of a deep league version of Kirby and Gilbert. They’re often paired together because they are teammates with similar profiles who both skipped Triple-A en route to solid rookie seasons and many are willing to let the drafting of one be their cue to take the other given their ADP proximity. Some may have a strident preference, but I’m really close on them. Both need to expand their arsenal to better handle lefties, while both also featured strong fastballs that drove their swing-and-miss profiles. Miller’s control was a grade better than Woo’s, giving him a slight edge though it’s worth noting that their BB% rates were less than 1% apart in the minors. I also like that Miller is working on a splitter to help him better combat lefties.

Brayan Bello focused on honing his control during his first full MLB season, laying a strong foundation to build upon. While we’d love improvement on his 20% K rate, the heavy GB rate along with his 7% BB rate is a winning combo as he continues to develop. He flashes the whiffs on occasion including a 10-K gem at TOR in mid-Sept. Like fellow youngsters Miller and Woo, Bello shares the severe platoon issues (205 pt. OPS split), but unlike them he has the changeup to work through it (unless Miller’s splitter comes together).

The 3.91 ERA in 2022 jumped off the page a bit for Mitch Keller because it came a year after he threw 101 IP with a 6.17 mark. The problem was that his SwStr% rate remained underwhelming and his 2-pt jump to an 11% K-BB paired with a 1.40 WHIP just didn’t scream “breakout!”. Despite the 30 pt spike in ERA to 4.21, this feels like a much bigger step thanks to the 19% K-BB and 1.25 WHIP in a career-high 194 IP. He held most of the velo gains from 2022 and now has back-to-back full seasons under his belt. With a little HR suppression or drop in BABIP, he has a chance at a Top 30 season.

Another aspect that splits Miller and Bryan Woo a bit is that I believe Miller is better equipped (or at least has a better plan with his new splitter) to cut into the huge platoon split that both showed in their debut seasons: BM: .549 OPS vR/.917 vL | BW: .495/.928 — Woo is fastball-heavy (73%) with only a cutter and slider supplementing it which breeds the heavy split. I’d like to see Woo also join the splitter revolution or develop his show-me changeup (4%) a bit more. The fastball is excellent and there’s a nice strikeout floor so even if he repeats his ratios (4.21 ERA/1.21 WHIP), it won’t kill you and there’s the upside for more if he does develop his arsenal to better handle lefties.

Reid Detmers was someone I thought could take a big step forward in 2023. He absolutely did not do that. He showed glimpses including a 2.05 ERA in June and 1.82 in 4 September starts to close out the season. Unfortunately he had a 5.98 ERA in the other 4 months as well as a brutal 4-10 record making him a bust as a pick in the 150-175 range. He’s firmly outside the Top 200 for 2024 and I’m sticking with him. His BB% ticked up slightly, but his velo, K%, and SwStr% all jumped as well. In fact, his SIERA says he really wasn’t all that different (4.12 in 2022; 4.14 in 2023) and nothing about his 2023 changes my overall outlook on him. I can stay invested in at a cheaper price and we’ll see if the 24-year old lefty can build on his strong finish.

I boosted Yu Darvish up the rankings a bit as I found myself a lot more comfortable with him in drafts than I originally expected. Yes, there is risk taking any 37-year-old starter, but he still had a 17% K-BB that ranked Top 40 (min. 130 IP) while his 4.03 SIERA was 53 pts better than his ERA. Outside of few blowup starts, he was still the great Darvish for nearly half of his season, netting a Game Score over 55 in 11 of 24 starts. Game Score isn’t a perfect metric, but anything north of 55 is a great start while anything below 45 is a bad one (8/24 were sub-45 for Darvish).

Shane Bieber was a late removal from the Stud With a Concern tier because I realized he had more than just one glaring issue coming off his decent 2023. His velo is sinking, his K rate is collapsing, and there are severe injury concerns. His price doesn’t have me running away from him, but I’m not pounding the table for him like I was last year. I will be keeping close tabs on him during Spring Training. Mar. 13th Update: Bieber has drawn some attention for working with Driveline to improve his velocity and if he can hold the gains, we could a good portion of his lost strikeouts return. He’s consistently available past pick 150 and I’m willing to take the shot that he can return to or near his previous heights.

I didn’t move Chris Sale up a ton after the trade to Atlanta, but it definitely improves his outlook for me. I was still ready to buy in even with the Red Sox because lost in the hubbub of another injury-addled season was that his skills looked strong with a 23% K-BB rate in 103 IP, good for 9th in MLB (min. 100 IP). He had 3 Duds (5+ ER) in his first 5 starts but then found a groove over his next 6 before shoulder inflammation shelved him for 2 mos. Upon returning, a Dud v. BAL was the only major blemish on his ledger en route to a 3.92 ERA/1.06 WHIP while maintaining the same 23% K-BB we saw pre-injury. This is another case where the risk is obvious and plentiful, you just have to decide if a 160 ADP gives you enough buffer to take on that risk. Mar. 7th Update: The ADP is rising, sitting at 100 in 17 March drafts so keep that in mind if you’re in on Sale. I am willing to take the shot even at the rising price but will no doubt try to cover him with some IP certainty (as certain as we can ever be, at least).

While I don’t fully believe in Aaron Civale’s insane K% surge with TBR (29% in 45 IP), I do think he can hold some of the gains as I’ve always felt he had a bit more strikeout stuff than the 22% career mark we’ve seen thus far. He also had a .370 BABIP after the trade which really sullied his performance in Tampa Bay and I have no doubt that will improve. The biggest question mark is volume. He has just two inning counts in the low-120s, including last year’s 122. Will Tampa Bay be inclined to turn the 29-year-old loose for a full season (162+ IP) if he is healthy or will they manage him for around 140-150 knowing they have him for 2025 as well? At an early-200s ADP, I’m willing to take the gamble and not be too worried even if I only get another solid 120-inning output.

Triston McKenzie told MLB.com that he was having a pretty normal offsesaon and expects to be a full go as of late-December. After an incredible breakout season in 2022, major shoulder and elbow injuries limited him to just 16 IP in 2023. He did finish the season on the field and though the 6 IP were very uninspiring, I’m counting it as at least a partial win that he was even able to get back on the mound. I don’t hate his mid-200s Fall/Winter price tag, but I’m more inclined to wait and see how he does in Spring Training even if that means I pay a steeper price.

Even on the heels of his first Cy Young, Gerrit Cole almost feels boring despite being so good. A key to his 2024 success will be whether or not the newfound HR suppression is legit or just a strong run. After posting a 1.4 HR9 in 2020-22, he dropped to 0.86 thanks in large part to a 9% HR/FB, his lowest mark since 2016 (back when he was more sinker-focused). Mar. 13th Update: An MRI on his elbow didn’t reveal a ligament tear, but will be enough to sideline him for 1-2 mos. of time. He’s not completely off my board in the NFBC universe (no IL spots), but he’s pretty close. I think he needs to come in around pick-150 or later before I start considering him. In leagues with at least 3 IL spots, I’m open to taking a look around pick-100. At least I don’t already have on him 3 teams… wait, what? I do?! Well, f**k me, I guess.

Kenta Maeda enjoyed a solid return from his 2022 Tommy John surgery, especially after he got back from an early season triceps injury. A 10-ER nightmare on April 26th just before the injury spoiled his ERA for a while, but all told he had a 3.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 88 IP after the 2-month spell on the shelf. The 36-year-old now moves to Detroit, the perfect spot to cut into his career-long HR issue (1.2 career, 1.5 last yr) as Comerica Park has the lowest HR park factor over the last 3 seasons. Both Dodger Stadium and Target Field aided HRs so this is easily his best home venue. At his age, he’s unlikely to start staying healthy so plan for 120-130 IP of solid work. I did end up moving him down a bit in the rankings just because I thought Top 50 was a little too high given the lower IP output.

I appreciate that the market no longer overreacts to Nathan Eovaldi’s upswings. We all know there is a good chance he will be good when pitching, it’s just that he is a near-lock to miss time every season. He has just two 30+ start seasons and only three times north of 150 IP. He washed away concerns of the strained forearm that cost him about 7 weeks in the summer with another excellent October run: 2.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 20% K-BB in 37 IP.

Did you realize James Paxton made 19 starts last year? That kinda surprised me. It wasn’t his best year, but it was a perfectly respectable 4.50 ERA/1.31 WHIP/17% K-BB in the 96 IP of work. Now he moves to LA which always boosts interest given their success with reclamation projects. While I can envision them bringing Paxton back to his 19% K-BB rate or better, I doubt they can magically keep him healthy for more than a low-100s IP output. Of course only 127 pitchers reached 100 IP last year, down 13 from 2022, so I’m more concerned about Paxton’s quality than his volume as a low triple-digit total is plenty useful at the backend of your fantasy rotation.

There were some Fall trade rumors swirling around Trevor Rogers as teams inquired about buying low after bicep and lat injuries essentially ate up his entire season (18 IP). Don’t forget that he’s also coming off a wretched 2022 as well so we’re a good bit away from successful 2021 season. I’m not averse to taking a shot with his mid-300s price tag, but I won’t be loading up on shares. I’ll take a closer look down the line. Mar. 23rd Update: Rogers is slated for the rotation and I’m intrigued enough to put him back on my draft board. He velo dipped a bit in his second spring start, but his changeup has looked fantastic including 7 whiffs on 19 thrown in that second start so it wasn’t all bad.

Just when it seemed like Luis Severino was turning a corner, he was cut down by another injury which ended his season on September 8th. A 2.49 ERA in his final 4 starts could only bring his season mark down to 6.65 which tells you how bad he was in his other 68 IP. Like most of this tier, he will need further assessment as Spring Training starts.

I considered putting Walker Buehler in the Studs With a Concern tier, but the recent news about suggesting the Dodgers could run a 6-man setup that might include slowly ramping up Buehler early on gave me some pause about how aggressively I’d be willing to buy back in on the 29-year old phenom. Feb. 23rd Update: We learned that Buehler is unlikely to appear in any Cactus League games so we are now guaranteed a delayed start to the season which could extend into May. I’m open to taking him in unlimited IL leauges, but otherwise I’m likely sititng out this year and revisiting him for 2025.

There aren’t many concerns about Eury Pérez’s skills after a scintillating debut, but it was just 91 IP from a 20-year old so even this 24th ranking comes with some uncertainty. Will the Marlins turn him loose this year for 30+ starts? He did get 27 between AAA/MLB but with just 128 combined IP, maybe the bigger question is whether or not MIA will allow him to go deeper in the starts he does get. He can deliver a Top 25 SP season with 140-150 IP. Mar. 23rd Update: He will start the season on the IL with elbow inflammation and while it won’t require surgery at this moment, he will be out for several weeks and I’m sure the Marlins will be very cautious with the 21-year-old.

Eduardo Rodriguez bounced back from a tough 2022 that saw him pitch just 91 IP and looked like the guy I was hoping he’d be when the Tigers signed him: essentially the Red Sox version with improved ratios thanks to the park and division boosts. He had a 15% K-BB which isn’t too far off the 16% mark he had from 2015-21 but easily beat his established ratios with a 3.30 ERA/1.15 WHIP (4.16/1.31 from ’15-’22). Now he moves to Arizona which should remain a solid home park, but the division really toughens up with plenty of Dodgers and Padres on tap as well as some trips to Coors. I’m inclined to split the difference between his BOS and DET ratios with something like a 3.60/1.20 combo. Mar. 23rd Update: He is slated for the IL recovering from a lat strain with no clear timetable which definitely undercuts my interest in him a good bit, especially in leagues without IL slots.

What a debut from Kodai Senga! He battled some control issues early on as he adjusted to the new league before settling in for an excellent summer run. Walks were plentiful initially with a 15% BB rate through his first 9 starts. He dropped his first and what would be his only 0-BB game in his 10th start of the year which seemed to spur his surge: 2.59 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and most importantly just a 10% BB rate in his final 20 starts (118 IP). Control is still a question here as splitters… err, ghost forks… are notoriously fickle, but I have no issue paying for the 31-year old heading into his sophomore campaign. Feb. 23rd Update: Senga is out indefinitely with a shoulder strain and will now start the season on the IL. This essentially takes him off my draft board in most leagues unless there are unlimited IL spots. I just don’t want to start the season with pitching injuries already on the roster because you are guaranteed to get some over the course of the season already.

I’d be a lot more excited to buy back in on Frankie Montas, a favorite of mine, if he had signed virtually anywhere else! A 350 ADP means I’m certainly not out, but I can’t imagine loading up on the new Cincinnati Red.

Edward Cabrera failed to reach 100 IP for the first time as a major leaguer, this time by just 1/3rd of an inning. Let’s be clear, 100 isn’t a particularly impressive threshold, I just figure we have to start there before asking him for 150+ IP seasons. His always-shaky control was really when he was on the field with only Michael Kopech having a worse BB rate and that’s only when we extend out the decimal (15.4% to 15.2%). Everyone has their favorite flawed arms they are willing to chase the upside with and I can understand someone picking Cabrera, but he’s just not someone for me. The power stuff and groundball lean is usually a profile I go for, but I just don’t see him ever really reigning in the walks which puts so much pressure on his BABIP to have anything close to a fantasy-viable WHIP.

I know they are no longer teammates, but Shane Baz’s situation is like the cheap version of Tyler Glasnow because while pick 196 isn’t a super high pick in any league type, some might find it really tough to pay a top-200 pick for a guy with just 40 MLB innings AND coming off of TJ surgery. He had his surgery in September of 2022 so he will be working on a 16-17 month recovery which could make for a smoother return. I do generally shy away from TJ returners, but I do leave the door open for those with the longer recovery period if they are fairly priced.

Looking at the guys Baz is around – Eovaldi, Civale, Pfaadt, Darvish – makes me comfortable enough to consider him. I like most of those five guys so I would probably spread my risk on them as opposed to loading up on any single one. If I were to load up, I don’t think it’d be Baz with his returning from TJ being the tiebreaker against him. Feb. 23rd Update: The start of his season will be delayed as he will hang out in extended Spring Training for a bit which isn’t terribly unexpected but still enough for me to drop him a little.

The “concern” with Kyle Bradish is just whether or not it’s real. He is skyrocketing up the board after a breakout season. While there were glimpses in 2022, he still had a 4.90 ERA/1.40 WHIP that season so it’s fair to question if he’s a legit Top 30 starter on the basis of a single season. I’m a believer as he has a deep arsenal, good control, and favorable home park for half his starts. Feb. 23rd Update: Well, this sucks. A UCL sprain will land him on the IL to start the season and could torpedo his season entirely. As such, he is off my board until we get more news. And frankly, I’m not even sure good news would make me that eager to keep investing. I’ll take the Fall/Winter shares I got and hope those wind up paying off, but I’m unfortunately out on Bradish going forward. Mar. 23rd Update: There has been good news on Bradish as he threw a bullpen and is now expected to return early in the first half of the season. I’m still not drafting him in NFBC formats where there are no IL slots and just 7 reserves, but if you have 4+ IL slots, I’m OK stashing.

While not as severe as Bradish, John Means opened Spring Training with news that his TJ repaired elbow isn’t quite ready and he is about a month behind schedule and thus will start the season on the IL. He already carried major risk and now I just can’t envision drafting him for 2024. I will consider him off the wire when he returns, but it’s hard to see a ton of upside this year.

This can be a difficult tier because a lot of these guys finished well above their 2024 rank and it can sometimes be hard to separate a player from their most recent season. Obviously it matters and weighs heavily into the equation, but it’s not the only piece. We only need to go back to 2022 with José Berríos to see what his downside looks like. It looked like an anomaly as it was happening, but it was hard to know if it was going to turnaround in-season or just be a washout campaign. It ended up being the latter and he returned to form with a 3.65 ERA/1.19 WHIP. Innings are a big part of his game as he racked up his 4th season of 190+ IP (and the struggles of 2022 are the only reason it’s not 5 as he got 32 turns but last just 172 IP).

Ho-hum, just good ol’ Chris Bassitt, but 200 IP worth for the first time! I’m not trying to denigrate him at all, but rather praise his almost boring steadiness. Need a mid-3.00s ERA with a good WHIP? He’s a strong bet. At age-35, there is always some added risk especially since his injury history isn’t exactly clean, either. Bassitt consistently shows how premium control can get more out of an otherwise middling arsenal. And again, I’m not trying to roast him… just saying I’m more willing to believe that he will hew closer to his 3.49 career ERA than the 4.20 career SIERA.

It might feel a little off to put Shota Imanaga in a veteran tier as he makes his debut stateside this year, but he is coming over at age-30 with a strong track record in the NPB that featured a 3.18 ERA/1.12 WHIP in 1003 IP and plenty of Ks. He signed a 4-yr/$53 million dollar deal with the Cubs that could reach as high as 5/$80mil. It’s hard to ever know how well players will do in their first year over here but early projections put him down for a high-3.00s ERA with around a strikeout-per-inning. That seems fair enough for the 63rd SP off the board.

Merrill Kelly saw his BB rate spike to career-high 10% mark, but it was paired with a career best 26% K rate (aided by career best 12% SwStr) as he was able to essentially repeat his 2022 breakout success, trading some IP and few points of WHIP for a better ERA and more Ks. Improved command has been the key driver in these two seasons with his HR rate dropping from 1.3 in 2019-21 to just under 1.0 the last two years at 0.98. Despite the BB rate jump, his Location+ still ranked 8th among qualified starters, though that feels like an outlier as just 2 guys with a 101 or better Location+ had a BB rate north of 8%. I can see a 3rd straight sub-4.00 ERA season, but I’m betting closer to 3.80 than the sub-3.50s we saw the last two years.

As a long time Jon Gray fan, I’ve been eager for him to get out of Colorado for years now. Two years into his Texas tenure hasn’t exactly yielded huge results as health has continued to plague him and his 1.2 HR9 is actually a tick worse than his 1.1 with COL. He closed the season healthy (pitching brilliantly in the World Series) and I still hold out hope for a full season of work in line with his 2022 (3.56 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP). As a post-300 pick, there isn’t much risk to taking the shot because even if it doesn’t come to fruition, you’re not really losing out.

Seth Lugo’s return to the rotation was successful with a 3.57 ERA/1.20 WHIP in 146 IP and now he’ll move to the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium in KC.

Projections are dubious on Michael Wacha despite back-to-back great seasons as most have him with an ERA north of 4.00 despite joining Padres teammate Seth Lugo in KC. Wacha has a 3.27 ERA/1.14 WHIP in 262 IP over the last two seasons, though projections are more in line with his 4.25 SIERA. The market doesn’t really overrate the 32-year old with a late-200s ADP so he won’t hurt you too much even if he does slide back into the low-4.00s with his ERA.

Time looks like it’s starting to catch up to Justin Verlander. No one is really complaining about his 3.22 ERA/1.13 WHIP, but his velo dipped and his K rate tanked. His 15% K-BB rate was his lowest since 2014 and 9 pts off his 2022 Cy Young pace. With a post-100 pick, I can take these numbers. The problem was that he came with a Top 40 overall pick price tag last year. If you have trepidation about Verlander, don’t be afraid to jump out a year early instead of holding on a year too long. And I say that as the biggest Verlander fan around. Mar. 7th update: He will start the season the IL working back from a shoulder injury. He hasn’t had setbacks or anything, he just needs more time and age-41, the Astros don’t feel the need to rush him back. If you liked him prior to this news, I wouldn’t be too spooked by this. I haven’t really been drafting JV in my early drafts and I’m unlikely to seek him, but if the price dips more (current ~160s ADP), I won’t completey run away.

A torn rotator cuff limited Nestor Cortes to just 63 IP last year with modest results (4.97 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) but K-BB rate was only 2 pts off his 2022 pace at 18%. Was the 1.6 HR9 a return of his previous longball issues or was the shoulder bothering him throughout his 11 starts before the injury and thus not as worrisome? I lean toward the former so I think he’s probably good for a low-4.00s ERA with a solid WHIP and Win potential in New York. As long as he keeps reaching his inning benchmarks in Spring Training and shows no ill effects from the shoulder surgery, he’s fairly priced going around SP64 in early-March drafts.

Charlie Morton posted his worst full season BB rate (12%) since 2011 which was a big reason behind his hideous 1.43 WHIP. The 40-year-old still had a healthy 26% K rate and 14 Ws thanks to being on one of the best teams in baseball, but you really need to protect your WHIP if you’re going to roll with him. If you have a bunch of quality ratio arms from crappy teams who are slated to win 7 games, you can add someone like Morton to the roster to spot start for some cheap dubs.

Jack Flaherty mostly stayed healthy in 2023 after amassing just 114 IP in 2021-22 combined. The results weren’t very good (4.99/1.58) but there is something to be said for taking 27 turns on the bump (plus 2 relief appearances). The next step will be staying upright while bringing back the skills that made him so good in 2018-21 (3.21/1.05). The biggest key would be regaining his swing-and-miss capability. That was a major driver in his 21% K-BB that has now sank to a meager 11% since 2022. He showed flashes of that previous iteration with an 18% K-BB in Baltimore, only be submarined by a 1.8 HR9 and .390 BABIP with them. I like this gamble for the Tigers as Flaherty is motivated to get back to his previous heights and while he is just 28 years old, he brings that fabled “veteran presence” with him as he enters his 8th MLB season. Mar. 23rd Update: A sharp Spring Training with a 27% K-BB rate has renewed interest in Flaherty as his stuff looks much more crisp than the guy we’ve seen the last couple years. It’s only 14 IP, but I’m encouraged the swing-and-miss stuff and improved control.

I don’t think Marcus Stroman’s outlook changes a ton heading back to NY, this time with the Yankees. As the category tier suggests, he’s a solid arm and can pile up a decent number of worthwhile innings when healthy!

I don’t expect Jordan Montgomery’s landing spot to greatly change his outlook for me, but I’ll still wait until he lands somewhere before taking a deeper look at him. Mar. 23rd Update: He’s still unsigned heading into the biggest draft weekend of the year making him really tough to draft unless his price tanks.

As I dove into Kutter Crawford, I found myself more and more excited about his outlook. Mar. 7th Update: On Mar. 5th, I did 2 podcasts that included extensive Crawford discussion – 1 was Pt. 5 of The Sleeper & The Bust SP Preview and the other was Tim Kanak’s Fantasy Aceball show. It made me realize that despite pointing out how I was excited by his outlook, he was ranked far too low. He quietly had a splendid season, but it’s a bit underrated because I think we balk a bit at any ERA north of 4.00 in the fantasy world. It was only 4.04 and it came with a 1.11 WHIP and 19% K-BB in 129 IP, ranked 16th and 26th, respectively, among pitchers the 102 pitchers with at least 120 innings. He flopped against the hype in 2022 but absolutely delivered last year and yet hasn’t seen a requisite price jump to account for it which makes me feel like I’m about to have a decent chunk of Crawford shares across my multi-league portfolio. At age-28 coming off 130+ IP (incl. a few in the minors), it’s reasonable to expect a full season of work (at least 162 IP) and if he repeats last year’s skills, I think we’ll see a solid mid-3.00s ERA, too.

After a fast start to his rookie year, Hunter Brown faded over the summer and limped to the finish line. He wound up with a 5.09 ERA in 156 IP, bookended by a 2.37 ERA in April and 8.74 in September. His 19% K-BB ranked 20th (min. 155 IP) but a 1.5 HR9 fueled by the highest HR/FB in baseball (21%) tanked the season. I was a big fan of Brown coming into last year and while things didn’t quite work out, I’m staying bought in as these skills definitely have substantial upside. He might only need some standard regression on that HR/FB rate to deliver a good season, but if he also takes a step forward with his skills, then a full scale breakout could be on tap. He isn’t “cheap”, but SP53 is plenty affordable for this profile.

Cristopher Sánchez was my big second half breakout last summer and he didn’t disappoint with a 3.65 ERA/1.05 WHIP combo in 74 IP. Like Brown, he battled a 1.5 HR9 and 22% HR/FB, but his 4% BB is half that of Brown’s making it easier to maneuver around the longballs he allowed. Both Sanchez and Brown have a strong GB lean so if they can cut those lofty HR/FB rates, there’s a good chance to bring down those HR rates since they don’t allow a ton of flyballs.

Casey Mize is working his way back after nearly 2 years off and with that in mind, the Tigers aren’t going to rush him and likely won’t put a huge workload on the former #1 overall pick. He’s a Draft and Hold kind of pick and a Watchlist guy in waiver wire leagues. The Tigers have cultivated some depth so they can afford to slowroll Mize’s return, but at the same time, their expected five heading into the season isn’t exactly ironclad. Keep tabs on him! Mar. 23rd Update: Mize has made the team out of camp! So much for the slowroll idea. I was pretty bummed that Matt Manning lost out, but as someone said to me on Twitter, it was 3 guys fighting for 2 spots and they just kept 1-upping each other start after start so the loser was always going to be a bit surprising. Mize’s spring results don’t jump off the page like crazy, but his stuff looked really good, including a new 4-seamer that he is trusting more than ever.

While the D’Backs were storming their way to the World Series, I wondered if Brandon Pfaadt would have a big Playoff Tax tied to his 2024 price after his standout October that included a 3.27 ERA/1.09 WHIP in five starts (22 IP). His 206 ADP is no doubt influenced by the run, but not to the degree I feared. I was concerned he might be up in the 150s with teammate Merrill Kelly, but this feels like a reasonable area that can even sustain some Spring helium and still be fair if it’s around 175-180. Like both Brown and Sanchez, Pfaadt displayed good skills that were held back by a HR issue. Four homers in his MLB debut set the tone for a 2.1 HR9 that caused problems throughout his 96 IP. Obviously he can’t live at that rate and find consistent success, but shaving it down to 1.3-1.5 will be enough to deliver a useful sub-4.00 ERA, especially since I definitely don’t see him running another 10.2 H9.

I like way too many Angels pitchers to have a successful fantasy season, but Griffin Canning has risen to the top of the list for me. The 28-year-old has consistently flashed up throughout his 4-year career, but had been limited 90 or fewer innings until last year’s 127. That’s still not a full season, of course, but his arm stayed healthy as it was groin and calf issues that cost him a couple 2-week stints in April and August, respectively. He enters his age-28 season and shouldn’t have any real restrictions so his 19% K-BB rate (22nd among SPs with at least 120 IP) should get a chance to shine through for 30 turns through the rotation.

Mar. 23rd Update: Louie Varland won a spot in Minnesota’s rotation only to turn around and get blasted for 8 ER against Detroit in his next Spring Training out. I’m unmoved by the outing because while he wasn’t great, his velocity was fine, he had a 20% swinging strike rate, and 8 of the 9 hits were singles. That doesn’t mean they were all cheap hits, but if this start causes any sort of drop in price despite it coming right after he secured his rotation spot, I’ll gladly buy the dip.

Braxton Garrett had a really strong 2023 (3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 19% K-BB in 160 IP) that would definitely be garnerning more attention if he wasn’t currently dealing with a shoulder injury that will likely land him on the IL to start the season. He is working his way back, they just don’t want to push him for an artificial deadline like Opening Day. He is expected to miss a start or two at the outset of the season. I’m always reluctant to go for injured guys in non-IL leagues (such as the NFBC universe), but Garrett is close for me. I could see myself taking him if the price drops enough in a given draft. He has already dropped to around pick-250 in early-March drafts after sitting in the late-100s during February which puts him around SP75 which of course is right in line with my ranking. Shoulders are scary so I will continue to monitor him, but I’m not fully out due to the injury.

Reese Olson is in line for a rotation spot in Detroit and looking to build on a solid rookie year (3.99 ERA/1.12 WHIP). He has a deep arsenal to keep both lefties and righties at bay and there’s some nice strikeout upside after solid 24% K and 12% SwStr rates in 104 IP last year.

Nick Lodolo is working his way back from a leg injury and is expected to make his Spring Training debut on March 10th against Cleveland with manager David Bell citing April 9th as the plan for his season debut so that’s good news on the injury front. Unfortunately he still pitches half of his games in Cincinnati which is a factor I just can’t over. He is a pitcher I like and root for, but push come to shove I never end up drafting him or any of the appealing young Cincy arms because of their pitching in Coors Lite. Both Lodolo and Hunter Greene have elevated HR issues that get further exposed in their home games and while there is a world where they tighten things up with their electric arsenals, I don’t see my fantasy teams ever benefitting from it if it does happen.

Logan Allen leveraged some good fortune (mostly by way of his 79% LOB rate) to deliver a 3.81 ERA in his rookie season. His 1.40 WHIP tells the real story behind his season as his hittable fastball and average-ish control led to the barrage of base runners and gives credence to his 4.49 SIERA. He maintained high LOB rates at every stop throughout the minors except a 60-inning stint at Triple-A in 2022, but that’s tough to bet on. Additionally, Cleveland does good work with their pitchers and if they have a couple tweaks for him that can shave down the hit and walk rates even a little to where he’s more of a 1.30 WHIP guy (which is still high, but not unbearable if he has a sub-4.00 ERA) then there could be something here.

Gavin Williams enjoyed a strong debut (3.29 ERA/1.16 WHIP in 82 IP) that was a bit overshadowed by Tanner Bibee being so much better (2.98/1.18). Control was the main issue with an 11% BB rate. His 53% Zone rate was 2 pts better than league average but it seems too many non-competitive curveballs were the primary culprit behind the walks. His 50% Strike rate on the pitch was in the 12th percentile, well below the 58% league average. Even with a curve and changeup, he still had a 242-pt platoon split so one or both of those pitches will need to improve if he wants to cut into the walk rate and platoon split. At age-24 and part of a team with strong pitching development success, it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him do just that and he’s priced fairly enough to take the risk if you’re so inclined.Mar. 13th Update: Williams is working through an elbow issue that isn’t expected to be major as he hopes to be throwing again soon, but I am moving him down a bit as a precaution. I’m not entirely out and even drafted in a league after the news (with IL spots). Mar. 23rd Update: The elbow will indeed land him on the IL to start the season. The outlook is relatively solid, with the timeline suggesting he will only need the minimum stay. I still prefer to draft him in leagues with IL slots, but he’s not completely off my board in the NFBC universe (which has 7 reserve slots, 0 ILs).

Kyle Harrison debuted last year with a mixed bag of results across his seven starts, as he somehow outran a 2.1 HR/9 to post a 4.15 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 34.2 innings. Perhaps most impressive was the 8% walk rate given his 12% mark in 279 minor league innings, but it’s far too small a sample to say those gains are real. The lefty did flash a legitimate three-pitch mix, and his fastball/slider combo should at least guarantee him a reliever outcome if starting doesn’t work out. He totaled 100 innings between the minors and majors, so the Giants have penciled him into the rotation, where he could reach 150 innings if things go as expected for the 22-year-old southpaw.

I mentioned my concerns with Cincy’s ballpark in Hunter Greene’s write-up so you probably won’t be surprised to learn of my trepidation with Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo. Both are remarkably talented lefties and Abbott did all he could to give them a go to arm down the stretch, but both carried high HR rates heavily influenced by the park and I see no reason to predict a substantial change for either in that respect. Like Greene, both have electric strikeout capability which fuels their great upside. They just have to improve their command and control to avoid that stark volatility, especially in their home starts.

Taj Bradley is another “hang with ’em” after a bumpy debut. He hasn’t been buried and forgotten like we’ve seen too many times with rising studs, but his mid-200s ADP is a very nice price to stay invested in the 23-year old righty. Like a few others in this tier, HRs were a big problem as a 2.0 HR9 drove the split between his 5.59 ERA and 3.82 SIERA. Fixing a HR issue isn’t magic and takes legitimate development, but rookie longball issues aren’t rare and many guys refine their command as they gain experience and I’m confident Bradley can do that. I’m willing to take the shot that he can make some major improvements this year while the draft price is low enough that my season isn’t in peril if he doesn’t. Mar. 13th Update: A right pectoral strain will shut him down for at least two weeks and I’m sure the Rays will slow play his return to protect the young arm. Unfortunately, he is essentially off my board at this point.

While Nick Pivetta still had just a 4.04 ERA, it came with a sparkling 23% K-BB rate and 1.12 WHIP in his 143 IP of work. These were far and away career best marks — even the ERA was by essentially half a run, but the K-BB & WHIP were the true standouts — and now he has proponents ready for more. There were some excellent flashes during his summer run, but we’re still only talking about 10 of his 21 appearances being at least 5 IP. I know he finished particularly strong with four of those outings, during which he reeled off a 1.75 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 33 K, and just 3 BB in 26 IP. I still have some concerns about his platoon split and ability to limit HRs vL, but since he’s burned virtually every fantasy manager at least once, he is going to cheap enough to take the risk that a lot of 2023 was real and he can put together 160+ IP of good work.

A.J. Puk is on track to return to the rotation for the first time since 4 starts at Triple-A in 2021. That’s right, he’s never made an MLB start and has just 148 IP over his four seasons as a big leaguer. I was a huge fan of Puk’s as a prospect and I’d love to see him find success as a starter, but I am nowhere near drafting him in any format. I will continue to keep tabs on him in Spring Training and alert y’all if anything changes for me. Mar. 23rd Update: He is breaking camp with the team after a blistering Spring Training that included a 41% K rate and eye-popping 30% (!) SwStr rate in his 14 IP of work.

Yusei Kikuchi kept the HRs at bay for an 18-start run to close out the season which was instrumental in a 3.54 ERA during that run. That said, I do not consider his HR issues fixed and as such haven’t found myself landing on him in my early drafts.

I was a huge Tyler Wells fan last year but then he disappeared for a lot of the second half and now we’re not sure if he’s going to start much in 2024. If and when they do put him back in the rotation, I’m very interested. Feb. 23rd Update: The Bradish and Means injuries put Wells in line for a rotation spot to start the season and that defintely raises his profile for me. The HRs are a problem, but he still managed a 3.64 ERA despite the 1.9 HR9 last year so imagine if he brings that down into the 1.4-1.5 range.

With Buehler delayed by design and Sheehan dealing general soreness this Spring, the door is now open for Gavin Stone to secure a rotation spot out of camp. I didn’t react too sharply to Stone’s ugly 31 MLB innings last year because I just didn’t see the 2.3 HR9, .355 BABIP, or 58% LOB rate as the real Stone. The result was a 9.00 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Even though he had a meager 15% K rate, I was lot more keyed in on 14% swinging strike rate (insofar as I cared anything in such a small sample). There is still tons of talent here and I think the unimpressive debut has dimmed has fantasy interest and I’m happy to scoop the discount.

Mar. 23rd Update: Not only is Garrett Crochet making the White Sox rotation, but he gets the Opening Day start against Detroit! If they skip the 5th starter the first time through, his second start will come against Atlanta, but then he gets a trip to Cleveland meaning he’s startable for 2 of his first 3. Let’s see how he looks after that and assess from there. By the way, if they do let a fifth starter take his first turn right away, then he’d get a trip to KC meaning all 3 of his first starts would be usable so let’s hope they do that.

Michael Lorenzen finally landed, signing a 1-year deal for $4.5 million dollars with Texas. He was traded after a great start with Detroit and his HR rate ballooned from 0.9 to 1.7. tanking his numbers with the Phillies (5.51 ERA). Looking at his 4.47 SIERA with Detroit, it was clear that he was due for some regression, the homers just kind of exacberated things. He has a 4.20 ERA/1.24 WHIP in 250 IP over the last 2 years and that’s about what I’d project for this year making him a streamer with some solid Win potential being in Texas.

Mar. 23rd Update: Shoulder inflammation delayed J.P. France’s spring debut untl March 17th though he still has the inside track on Houston’s 5th starter role. He is essentially Houston’s version of Michael Lorenzen and could be a viable streamer for some cheap wins.

Mar. 23rd Update: Jordan Wicks won a job in the Cubs rotation and while he only managed a 17% K rate in 17 spring innings, he still had a sharp 16% SwStr rate and walked just 3% of the batters he faced.

Let me be clear that Luis Gil was getting added to the list regardless of the Gerrit Cole, buuuttt he’s definitely higher than he would’ve been had Cole not gotten hurt. We’ve got Clayton Beeter taking that rotation spot on Roster Resource, but I’m not so sure the 26-year-old Gil can’t jump him, especially after a brilliant 8-K outing in his most recent Spring Training outing as of March 13th. The tough part is that he had just 4 IP last year so there’s an open question about exactly how many innings we can expect. I’ll bet on the talent and take 90-100 IP from a last round pick/waiver pickup kind of guy.

I’m old enough to remember when there wasn’t a league deep enough to touch a skillset like Cole Irvin’s in Baltimore. But since they’ve added the Great Walltimore out in left, things have changed to the point where now you want their pitchers, even those with modest skills. Irvin was OK in a hybrid role for 77 IP with BAL last year, posting a 4.42 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, ironically pitching a good bit worse at home (5.03 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), but he posted a career-high 20% K rate while maintaining his strong control at just a 6% BB rate. He is earning some Spring Training attention thanks ot a velo boost throughout his arsenal, averaging 94 mph on his fastball (+2 on his 2023 avg.) with a peak of 96 as well as a 3 mph boost to his cutter, up to 88 mph. If he can maintain these gains throughout the spring, there could be something interesting here. The injuries to Bradish and Means have opened the door for a rotation as well. Throw in the fact that even if he’s a low-4.00s ERA pitcher, there is real Wins potential and we have the makings of a solid late-round lottery ticket.

Mar. 23rd Update: Keaton Winn made his Spring Training on March 18th, but given that he’s lining up to be the 5th starter, he might still be ready for his first turn in the rotation.

We all know that Graham Ashcraft had a disastrous first half (5.95 ERA), but you might not remember that he actually had a 2.00 ERA through his first 6 starts. He then allowed 6+ ER in 5 of his next 8 starts, yielding a devastating 12.82 ERA in 33 IP. From there, he went off and dropped a 2.58 ERA in his final 12 starts, though virtually no one who drafted him benefitted from it as they had definitely cut him by that point. I’d love to paint a rosy picture about the late-season surge and how he can build upon it for 2024, but a modest 12% K-BB and uninspiring 1.3 HR9 in that time suggest it was more of a hot run aided by a .252 BABIP more than anything else. He has nasty stuff including a mid-90s cutter and high-80s slider, but it doesn’t translate into Ks and we’ve seen how poorly things can go in Cincinnati. As such, I just can’t see myself rostering him in any format right now. He was ranked way too high in my initial list, but I have remedied that with this adjustment.

Returning from KBO after a solid season. I’m willing to pay attention come Spring, but I’m probably not taking in anything but maybe a 50-round Draft Champions somewhere after Round 30 if he’s still available.

From one good Bay Area park to another for Alex Wood as he signs with Oakland on a 1-yr deal that could be worth nearly $10 million dollars. Injuries have consistently limited Wood throughout his career and 2023 was no different with just 98 IP. Worse yet, a substantial 7 pt. strikeout rate drop and 5 pt. walk rate surge undercut his production (yielding a career-low 8% K-BB), particularly the 1.43 WHIP. That said, he had a healthy 19% K-BB and 3.53 SIERA in 269 IP from 2021-22 so if he can push back toward that level, there could be some streamer value as long as you don’t need wins. I can’t envision drafting him anywhere, but instead keeping tabs on him once the season starts.

Mar. 23rd Update: Javier Assad has made the rotation with the Cubs. He quietly had a solid 109-inning run last year with a 3.05 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but his 12% K-BB rate is 2 points below average and could dip further as he just doesn’t miss enough bats. He had an 8% SwStr rate last year and just a 9% mark in his limited Spring Training work. He could be an occasional streamer in the right setup, just not someone I’m looking to draft.

Mar. 23rd Update: Wade Miley will begin the season on the IL because of his shoulder and added a groin issue to the mix during a March 21st Spring Training outing. If the 37-year-old lefty sitll has some gas in the tank, there will be some spot start viability once he’s healthy.

Mar. 23rd Update: Jameson Taillon will be out until at least mid-April with a back issue and wasn’t great last year when he did pitch. Let’s reassess when he returns to see if he can get back into the streamer mix.

Ross Stripling joins former teammate Alex Wood in moving from SF to OAK. He suffered through a 2.0 HR9 in 89 IP last year with SF as his home park thanks in large part to a 22% HR/FB rate. While that is egregiously high, his career mark is 15% so there are no guarantees he greatly improves the HRs in OAK (which has an equal 84 HR Park Factor over the last 3 yrs). If you want to be positive, you look at the 4.13 SIERA and 4% BB rate as avenues for occasional streamer value, but that might be wishful thinking.

After ranking 11th on Pittsburgh’s list last year, Jared Jones was 62nd on the Top 100 after some sharp development in 2023 that now has him looking like a firm mid-rotation arm. After 126 IP last year, he should be able to take on a full workload in 2024, most of which could come in the majors. He is very much in the mix for a rotation spot out of Spring Training so keep tabs on him throughout March. He is a deep league consideration right now with a late pick because you can easily cut him if he doesn’t make the roster and then wait for him to get called up in-season. Mar. 23rd Update: He’s still in the mix for a rotation spot so I’m taking a shot on him late in drafts. If he doesn’t make the rotation, he’s an easy cut.

It’s 8 innings, so let’s not get out of hand with it, but I am encouraged that Matt Manning has a 34% K rate and 12% SwStr rate in Spring Training (career: 17%, 8%). His velocity is up and he’s finally missing some bats. It is worth noting that he had a 3.58 ERA/1.04 WHIP combo last year, though he rode a .214 BABIP pretty hard to get there given that it also came with a horrendous 9% K-BB. Even if his core skills improve substantially, his ratios will probably experience some pullback, but I’d gladly take a 3.75 ERA/1.20 WHIP with a 15-16% K-BB rate. Mar. 23rd Update: I’m so bummed he lost out on the 5th starter’s role! His stuff was looking so crispy in Spring Training. That said, he’ll still be the first man up and I’ll be right there ready to pick him up in FAAB.

The Giants have signed Jordan Hicks with eyes on a return to starting. I really hope they can make this work, but I’m not willing to bet a ton on it. Even if it does, what kind of volume can we really expect? Maybe 100 IP? His stuff is electric, SF has a strong record with pitchers, and the park can cover some mistakes so there is a path to some success. The news hasn’t really pushed his Fall/Winter draft price, either, as it sits around pick-300 and shouldn’t move too much higher as we push toward Spring Training, but I think I’d prefer him in a waivers format so I can move on him if injury strikes again.

Bowden Francis is comepting for a rotation spot and more than holding his own in Spring Training with a 24% K-BB rate in his 8 IP of work. Obviously, we aren’t going to get nuts over 8 IP, but I’m intrigued enough to follow the rest of his spring and see if there’s anything here. This is the type of pitcher where I’m not worried about the whole year, I’m just focused on whether or not he can deliver some value in the first 4-6 weeks of the season. That’s the case for most of the pitchers once we get beyond, say, SP50.

The Cole injury clears a path for Clayton Beeter to break camp in the rotation which no doubt raises his profile in deeper formats. He hasn’t walked fewer than 10% of his batters in any of his 6 MiLB stops so he has a clear issue to work on, but he also has a 14% SwStr rate or better in each of those stops so we know he’s nasty, too. He and Luis Gil could do the dreaded tandem starts if the Yankees want to leverage both without taxing either of them. Keep tabs on both over the last few weeks of Spring Training to see who gets the role. Hell, the way Rodon is pitching, maybe both make it! (I’m kidding, Yankees fans, relax!)

Solid command of a deep arsenal and 129 IP at Double- and Triple-A last year put Will Warren on the cusp of contributing to the big league team, and Eric likes him even more than other prospects on the 40-man despite Warren being just a non-roster invitee in spring. Mar. 23rd Update: Warren remains in the mix for a rotation spot with the Yankees, but he isn’t on the 40-man roster while both Clayton Beeter and Luis Gil are which likely gives them at least a little edge. Their 40-man is full so bringing Warren would require an additional move. Keep tabs on him in AAA if he doesn’t break camp as he could contribute once he arrives in New York.

I’ll likely have updates on young Dodgers arms like Emmet Sheehan as we get a better feel on how they will approach their rotation this year. Mar. 7th Update: Just a slight bump down as general soreness has him sidelined right now and could cost him a spot in the Opening Day rotation. While he won’t be available for the gams in South Korea, there is still a chance he will be ready by their opener stateside. That said, he might find himself in the bullpen for it. I’m not fully out, but the only reason he ranked ahead of Stone in the initial ranking was because he was slated for the rotation and Stone was ticketed for Triple-A. With that changing, I’ve now shot Stone ahead and dipped Sheehan a little bit. Mar. 23rd Update: Forearm inflammation has him ticketed for the IL, taking him off my board completely.

DL Hall heads to Milwaukee as part of the Corbin Burnes deal and they should allow the live armed lefty to keep starting until it’s clear he has to move to the pen. He had a great 6% BB rate in 19 IP with the O’s this past season, but that’s likely small sample goodness given his career 13% mark in 353 minor league IP. I’m open to taking a shot in 50-round Draft and Hold type leagues but otherwise just keeping tabs on him to see how things go in the spring.

Jackson Jobe landed just fifth on the Tigers list last year after a modest 2022, but he rebounded with a strong 2023 campaign, albeit for just 64 IP as lumbar spine inflammation delayed his season debut until mid-June. He supplemented his season with a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League and is now poised to reach the majors at some point in 2024. With his health issues and just six innings at Double-A, the Tigers won’t be in any rush get him up to Detroit, so he is more likely a midseason call-up unless he just dominates the first 4-6 weeks of the season and forces his way up.

AJ Smith-Shawver showed some flashes in a 25-inning big league stint last year, but the acquisition of Chris Sale makes him the team’s sixth starter entering camp and could even result in a return to Triple-A so that he remains stretched out innings-wise. The 21-year-old has a solid four-pitch mix that misses plenty of bats but has also proven difficult for him to consistently control. Add in that he had just 87 total innings last year, and I do wonder what kind of workload the Braves will give him if and when they have opening. He has enough upside that even a small boost in development would be enough to make him fantasy viable across all formats, especially as part of one of the best teams in baseball.

Returning from an August 2022 Tommy John, Max Meyer won’t be pushed too hard but could deliver some summer value if his recovery goes smoothly. I really like him for 2025 and beyond, but he will remain on my watchlist for 2024, especially the Marlins start talking about him as one of their 26 out of camp.

Chase Hampton has higher long-term upside than Warren, but looks like more of a mid-to-late season call-up after just 107 IP at High- and Double-A in his pro debut.

Mitch Spence was a Rule 5 pick for the A’s out of the Yankees system and while he hasn’t debuted in the majors yet, we could see the 26-year old log 120+ IP right away. What he lacks in overpowering stuff, he makes up for with some funk, according to Eric Longenhagen. A curve and sweeper support his modest fastball (90-92 mph) and his new home ballpark should mitigate his HR downside a bit. Though as Eric also pointed out, the 20% HR/FB rate he had last year should also just have some natural regression. Despite the bouts with the long ball, he often keeps the ball down pretty well while also not walking many and missing bats at a decent clip. With a real chance at innings, there could be some viability if things click with Spence. Keep tabs on him if you’re a deeper league.

I have been a José Urquidy fan in the past, but that interest is waning as he enters his age-29 season having eclipsed 20 starts just once (28 in 2022). He always has an above average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) yet his strikeout rate continues to shrink, down to a paltry 16% mark last year, albeit in just 63 IP. He is the kind of guy I’d draft in a 50-round Draft Champions league and be quick to go for on the waivers if we see a return to the guy who put up a 3.74 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 342 IP from 2019-22 (notice the tiny sample as injuries have plagued him throughout his career).

Mar. 23rd Update: Anthony DeSclafani will start the season on the IL with a forearm strain. If he works his way into the rotation down the line, he might have some streamer viability.

Cade Horton is a 2022 draftee who had a strong 3-level season (A/A+/AA) last year that puts the 22-year old on the cusp of the majors heading into 2024. He needs to sharpen his command and could start back in Double-A for a bit but even there he is just a call away as we see plenty of guys skip Triple-A en route to the majors these days.

An injury-riddled season limited Ricky Tiedemann to just 44 IP during the season and prompted the Jays to send him to the Arizona Fall League to tack on an extra 18 where he looked solid and closed the season on a high note. The 21-year old lefty could find himself in Toronto at some point this summer, but I do wonder how many IP he will get this year given his age and lack of volume as a pro thus far. That said, he could be high impact in whatever innings he does get so keep a close eye on him.

Alek Manoah came into Spring Training slimmed down, looking ready to avenge his brutal 2023 campaign. An improved body alone doesn’t mean he will be good again, but I’m giving him a small boost and will be monitoring him closely in his spring outings. He could be a major riser as we move through March, but even with a big boost I think he will remain affordable if you’re wanting to buy back in on him. Mar. 13th Update: He’s shelved with a shoulder issue and no timetable for his return.

Ben Brown dominated Double-A for 20 IP before a promotion to Triple-A where his BB rate doubled to 16% and wreaked havoc on his numbers as a 31% K rate wasn’t enough to overcome the lack of control. His control has always been a bit spotty so he will no doubt head back to Triple-A to keep working on it. While he will likely never be a control artist, he can survive with something in the 9-11% range given his strong swing-and-miss capability.