Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 26th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Golf: Worth dropping Canha for Michael Busch?

Paul Sporer: Yeah if you prefer the power, I’m OK w/that

Saul Pporer: Who’s an acceptable hitter to target with Skenes in a redraft, keep two? 12 teams 6×6.

Paul Sporer: Top of the scale… just has to be a premium stud bat

T(win)s: Festa going to get a chance to stay up for more than a spot start?  Hopefully he can help the rotation the way SWR has

Paul Sporer: Probably depends how long Paddack is out, but if he dominates, I’m not sure he can’t oust Paddack even once he’s healthy again

DJ Herz: What’s with the love for him? I understand the K potential, but he’s not really proven anything other than one great start against arguably a AAA lineup. This is coming from a deep leaguer as well.

Paul Sporer: It’s really just a live arm in deep leagues that garner some attention JUUUST in case it all clicks

Burleson: You talked about Big Burly on the pod and I agree with you that I think he’s a legit everyday player. I have Noot coming off the IL within the next week or two. Who would you rather have going forward when he returns?

Paul Sporer: If Burly is gonna keep getting a few SBs, I think he has jumped over Noot for me (even though I’m a huge Noot fan)

Guest: Who do you like better for saves in medium-term: Aroldis or Chad Green?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Chap, I think Pitt can go on a little run w/3 studly arms atop their rotation – Skenes/Jones/Keller — admittedly Jones needs to get back on track

I am on time: Caught you live.  Thank you for chats, articles and all.  You are easily my fav among all

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! Welcome to the live chat!!

mario: does the sticky stuff (or lack thereof going forward) affect Edwin Diaz valuation at all?

Paul Sporer: No, if he’s healthy, he’s still a must start closer for me… even if he doesn’t get allll the way back to peak Diaz, but I don’t think the suspension will greatly impact him

G Baby: Should I use my first waiver claim on dropped Bo Bichette in 12 team H2H?

Paul Sporer: Without knowing who else is available, I’m certainly open to it. He’s struggled this year for sure, but his upside remains strong and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was perfectly solid the rest of the way

Middling Infielders: Rank ’em ROS: Hamilton, Horwitz, Schneemann

Paul Sporer: The order you’ve listed ’em… Love Hamilton! #HookEmHorns

Trouble in Paredes?: Paredes is in a serious slump the last month or so. Buy-low or avoid?

Paul Sporer: I’m down to buy low, I think he’ll be OK

Salty: Hey Paul – India has been on a tear – is he 12 team viable at this point, or still has a ROS PT risk?

Paul Sporer: Def 12 team viable for me… Cincy as a whole is getting back on track, too

Nova Knicks: Which side do you prefer? A. Skenes/Arenado/Arozarena vs. B. JRam/Nolan Jones

Paul Sporer: I don’t have a major preference, it’s a pretty fair deal IMO. Each side has a stud and then underperforming players. You get 2 strugglers w/Skenes bc J-Ram is the more bankable stud so that seems fair to me. Sliiiight lean to J-Ram side, but again, I really like both

Buff: NL only, any hope for Will Benson?

Paul Sporer: Yes, some hope bc even during these struggles he has some fantasy juice w/8 HR and 9 SB so he could catch fire again and be good in NL Only

mario: Buxton or Kelenic ROS for OPS?

Paul Sporer: Ugh, disappointment

Paul Sporer: Slight lean to Buxton

PAUL to the wall: Looking to trade either Vladdy, Bohm or J Naylor because I can only play 2 a day most days.  Who should I move and what would be an example of a decent arm to target?

Paul Sporer: Naylor has been amazing and can probably get you the best return so I’d shop him around and hope to land a 4th-5th type hitter (they don’t have to have been drafted there, but rather someone playing like a 4th-5th rd hitter)

Colton: Suwinski makes my brain hurt, he’s doing everything we wanted him to! And the results have been awful, I’m very sad

Paul Sporer: Right? Just a nightmarish .218 BABIP is absolutely cooking his line. I totally understand cutting him, but I will be keeping tabs on him bc when hot, he delivers big time. Basically another Will Benson right now where the HR/SB juice is there but we just can’t eat 2+ mos. of sub-.200 AVG

K’s for C’s: Cut either Kirk or Korey Lee for Austin Wells? AL OBP league.

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind cutting Kirk… Wells hasn’t been amazing himself, but has more bankable power in his bat

At work: Stacked in dynasty at OF.  Who would be a fair trade off to get someone like Hamilton?
Kjerstad, PCA, Morel, Santander, Matos, O Cabrera or N Jones

Paul Sporer: Probably has to be one of Kjerstad/Morel/Santander and I’m OK w/any of them. Morel is like the name-brand version of that Suwinski/Benson-type w/15 HR and 7 SB but just a .201 AVG. I can see him having some appeal in a dynasty trade, particularly if the person w/Hamilton believes in Morel has a potential Carlos Gomez type (offensively, they are nothing alike defensively). I’d start by offering Morel/Kjerstad and then if they insist on Santander, I’m OK w/it assuming you can afford the PWR-for-SB trade off

Lesser of two weevils: Trading Arozorena for Pablo Lopez in a 10 tm H2H seem fair?

Paul Sporer: Yep, 2 sputtering studs who have both been better of late and might be turning a corner on their struggles

Matt: Is it worth it to drop Trout in 12-team redraft? Feels so wrong but given his history/last week’s uninspiring injury update/Angels going nowhere I’m at least considering it

Paul Sporer: I think it’s at least on the table like you say. I’m still trying my best NOT to, but if push comes to shove and you just NEED the spot w/no other obvious cut, I do get it

Paul Sporer: Only 12s and lower for now, though. Still holding firm in 15s despite the lack of good news

Crazy A’s: Following up on the new A’s starters (Estes, Harris, Spence, Medina): each has continued to be interesting and flawed. I think you’ve liked them at various points. Are you buying in on any of them or stepping back?

Paul Sporer: I have kind of had a flavor of week vibe jumping from one to another as you point out, but I stayed keyed on the group pretty consistently and find them to be useful streamers across multiple formats. At least the A’s hit some HRs so when they’re on, you can sneak a W… 2 of their starters already have 4 Ws last yr, 1 shy of last year’s high. I am not kidding — JP Sears and Shintaro Fujinami tied for OAK high of 5 Ws last year!

Can-oui or Can-non?: Looks like Cannon will get another start this week and maybe next week @MIA. Pick-up over Arrighetti @TOR or Mitch Spence v.LA for next week and beyond?

Paul Sporer: Spence/Arrighetti/Cannon is my ranking

Ryan: Trust Kutter against the Jays tonight?

Paul Sporer: Yes, though there is a tinge of finger-biting along w/it https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-june-26th-2024/

Paul Sporer: Thankfully TOR isn’t hitting HRs so they might not be able to leverage Kutter’s biggest weakness of late (2.5 HR9 in his L7)

I have my Trouts: Any hope for Trout ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m hoping he’s back around the All-Star break/Trade Deadline area… it’s tough holding, but doing so wherever I can for now

Nate: How high are you on Royce lewis

Paul Sporer: This insane run has only fueled my Royce love further!! He is just SO damn good when healthy… fitting to bring up Royce during a Trout convo

Mike: Any confidence in Bobby Miller or Buehler at this point.  Love having someone pitching for a top team, and Miller was great at the end of last year.

Paul Sporer: I’m still holding, but open to sitting Miller if he flops at SFG this weekend. Buehler is an IL hold for now, but my outlook on both has no doubt dimmed given their health concerns this year

NoJo NoHope?: Is Nolan Jones broken?

Paul Sporer: It’s like the bill came due on all his BABIP luck from last year! We knew the .401 mark wouldn’t last, but .280 is touuuggghh!! I didn’t see him being THIS bad so I’m not trying to victory lap or anything, but this is why he was such an easy bust call as a Top 75 pick. Allll that said, he’s better than this so I’m not averse to speculative pickups, especially w/a full Coors week next week

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: What the heckin flip happened to G. Cole yesterday?

Paul Sporer: Not sure but it wasn’t good! Nothing actionable for me, we’ll see how the next 2-3 starts go before making any moves w/him (and the only move would be maybe some sits, I’m NOWHERE near cutting Cole)

Joyce is Noyce: I keep wanting to grab Ben Joyce as a closer spec but he keeps being shaky. Is it worth the stomach trouble?

Paul Sporer: His stuff just screams “elite closer!” when he’s on, but he’s just not on enough to gamble IMO. Probably more of a 2025/26 closer

Nate: What should I do with machado in a shallow league

Paul Sporer: It’s a frustrating hold for me. He hasn’t been great, but definitely not bad enough to cut, either

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: What do we make of Nick Pivetta, Kutter, Ober… are any of them Kuttable for streaming purposes in my 10 tm H2H points league? Pivetta is RP eligible in that format, which boosts value for two start weeks.

Paul Sporer: I’m holding firm all 3. Kutter gets a 2-step next wk and while it does include a trip to NYY, the other is at MIA. Pivetta gets MIA too, after this week’s SDP start.

Ober’s my favorite of the bunch and almost never leaves the lineup for me. He’s got a 4.50 ERA on the year which isn’t that considering he allowed 20% of his season’s ER in that 8 ER debut at KCR. He has a 3.68 ERA since that start w/another KCR dud being his 2nd worst start. Hell, if you just look outside his KCR starts, he has a 3.21 ERA.

Now we can’t erase those starts so I’m not saying to pretend we can, but really to highlight that Ober’s essentially been great outside of a couple REALLY bad starts. His HR issues to leave him susceptible to worse bombs that other pitchers who keep the ball in the park, but I love him talent.

Mary Kate Olsen: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.

Paul Sporer: SCOTT. OLSEN.

Gerrit Cole: Gerrit Cole? Maybe you get into this with Nick on the FSC (I saw his name on the rundown, but haven’t listened) but are you starting @TOR or doing a wait-and-see?

Paul Sporer: Sticking w/him this weekend!

erghammer: David Hamilton is now a top ___ shortstop in most fantasy formats?

Paul Sporer: I’d say 10 w/that SB! Plus, he isn’t a power 0, so it might even be closer to Top 7-8

Re: Pablo Trade: Good, because I already did it right before Pablo’s 14K game

Paul Sporer: Let’s gooo!!!

Pirates Hurdles: Jones last starts vs TBR 7IP, 3H, 2R, 8K, hopefully that qualifies as back on track

Paul Sporer: Yes, definitely felt better about Jared Jones last time out, but I’m looking for a 0-2 BB game like we saw consistently early on. BBs have been a problem during this cold stretch w/a 12% mark that includes just 1 start of fewer than 3 BB

T(win)s: Not fantasy but mentioning Lewis and Trout in the same sentence, that’s too much for a Twins fan!  Just keep Lewis, Buxton, and Correa healthy the rest of the year

Paul Sporer: I know!! Even w/the Twins being a chief competitor of my Tigers, I still feel terrible for their health luck w/their studs. Plus I REEEEAAALLLLYY the Tigers to get Correa when they signed Baez so I always root for him

KC Pain: Is Bibee a #1 in the making?  Guy has been turning it on!

Paul Sporer: It’s not just because their names are similarish but yeah I think he could be their next Bieber in terms of his ceiling. Love Bibee and glad to see him outrun his early moderate bumps (the frustrating part was that his only bad starts seemed to be v. bad teams, lol)

Paul Sporer: Well, it’s not HORRIBLE timing since it’s almost been an hour, but my computer is force starting an update so I’m gonna speed through a handful more before that happens. If I stop short on an answer, that’s why, lol

AL Central Casting: Do you think Jhoan Duran will find his missing velocity? Can he still succeed with less heat, or is he going to have to adapt?

Paul Sporer: He’s still averaging over 100 so I think even a small dip is sustainable for him as long as any drop is just an indicator of him being compromised health-wise

Fatback65: Think Jhonkensy Noel or Tena will be up anytime soon for the Guardians?

Paul Sporer: Noel is tearing the cover off the ball (18 HRs, 136 wRC+) and Tena has been a dual threat w/14 HR & 10 SB so both should eventually be up when spots open. Right now there isn’t a clear spot for either, though

Rich: What are you doing with Goldschmidt? 12 team mixed

Paul Sporer: I think he is cuttable depending who you can pick up

Guest: Noel just called up

Paul Sporer: Oh let’s gooo!!!!

Paxton: Will Povich stay with Baltimore?  He’s held his own so far

Paul Sporer: For the short-term, yes, but he will have to be better if he wants to stick around for the entire summer bc they will almost assuredly add at the deadline

Mr. Jones and me: Hey Paul, love hearing you on Fantasy Sports Radio!  Should I be actively shopping Jared Jones before Pittsburgh announces some kind of shutdown plan?  I feel like the clock is ticking.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! There was some good news on that in today’s Mining the News w/them saying they won’t do a hard shutdown but rather a management plan that can hopefully get them through the year https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-6-26-24/

Peter: Any thoughts on Brandon Pfaadt?  They need to just pull him after 6 innings.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think they want him to become someone they can rely for 6-7 consistently, but there are some growing pains. I really like him overall, though

Paul Sporer: OK, literally seconds before the update clicks in and restarts the computer. Thanks for coming. I know I failed on the SP rankings for Tuesday again so we can discuss ’em here, but they are truly about done & will be up this week. So more of a July update than June! See y’all next week!

Mike: Is Noel as must add, particularly if you need OF?

Paul Sporer: If it’s 5 OF especially… more borderline for 3 OF… intriguing power though

Paul Sporer: ok bye for real!