Outfield 2024 Fantasy Rankings

Fernando Tatis Jr. disappointed last season by being good, not great. It’ll be interesting to see if he kicks the rust off this season. He didn’t show any signs of it last season with a 1H .871 OPS and a .660 OPS in the 2H.

If someone is looking for an early sleeper, it’s Aaron Judge. If healthy for a full season, he could easily be the best hitter in 2024. One red flag is his Sprint Speed dropping from 27.3 ft/s to 26.6 ft/s.

Mookie Betts is the only elite hitter with position flexibility.

On June 29th, Corbin Carroll injured his shoulder. Before the injury, he had a .926 OPS with 17 HR. From then on, he posted a .808 OPS with 8 HR. The elite production didn’t return in the postseason where he hit a .773 OPS with 2 HR.

Yordan Alvarez may be the best true hitter in the game right now, but he can’t steal a base thereby being his own tier.

Luis Robert finally started in more than 100 games and showed his true talent with 38 HR and 20 SB. Can he repeat the health?

Michael Harris II stumbled out of the gates by hitting .174/.260/.266 with 2 HR and 5 SB until June 1st. From then on, he hit .326/.352 /.535 with 16 HR and 15 SB.

Randy Arozarena is a good hitter (.260 AVG, 20 HR, 25 SB) with little upside or downside.

Adolis Garcia’s value hinges on him getting back to mid-teens stolen bases after stealing just nine in 2023. His Sprint Speed has been on a slow decline (29.1 Ft/s to 28.4 to 28.0 to 27.3) and now he’s just a league-average runner (49th percentile).

Cody Bellinger remains a free agent and his value will change once he signs.

The 25-year-old Nolan Jones had a breakout season with 20 HR, 20 SB, and a .297 AVG. Some AVG regression should be expected as his .401 BABIP drops. One other obvious issue is that the Rockies are horrible and his Runs and RBI numbers are lower than similar hitters. He’s one of the few Rockies who won’t need to be sat when on the road.

George Springer took advantage of the new rules and posted a career-high 20 stolen bases (5 CS) in his age 33 season. He stole those bases with his sprint speed dropping from 28.3 ft/s to 27.8 ft/s (62th percentile). His power is down for the second straight year as seen by his average Exit Velocity (89.4 to 88.7 to 88.3), Isolated Power (.291 to .205 to .147), and home run per flyball (21% to 16$ to 12%). Springer needed nearly 700 PA to get 21 HR last season. I’d not be surprised if his home run total ends up in the mid-teens.

While Christian Yelich no longer hits close to 40 HR, he continues to provide three-category production (19 HR, 28 SB, .278 AVG in 2023). Currently, there are no signs of him slowing down with his Sprint Speed steady at 28.1 ft/s (70th percentile).

While most of the heavily shifted lefties saw a batting average boost, Kyle Schwarber’s tanked to .197. He will provide real-life value with his 18% BB% and 47 HR but if he continues to lead off, his 720 plate appearances of a sub-.200 AVG is a category killer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s on-the-field talent is through the roof, but he just can’t stay on the fielder. His games played over the past three seasons have been 124, 60, and 97. Prorating his 19 HR and 22 SB from 2023 to 600 PA makes him a star. He can’t put up elite numbers on the IL.

Here are Mike Trout’s plate appearance totals over the past three seasons: 146, 499, 362. And here are his stolen bases: 2, 1, 2. Also, in 2023, he posted a .858 OPS, the first time it has been under .900 since 2011. I feel bad to see him this low, but there is nothing in his profile pointing upward. I remember Miguel Cabrera’s decline and the 32-year-old Trout is starting his decline.

Injuries have derailed Starling Marte’s career. Over the past three seasons, he has played in over 120 games. The injury and age have started to take a toll on the 35-year-old’s production. Last season, his ISO dropped under .100 for the first time in his career. His .625 OPS was also a career low. Marte was considered a steal source but his Sprint speed has dropped from 28.4 ft/s to 28.0 to 27.1 over the past two seasons.

If someone is looking for a sleeper, Chas McCormick could be it. In three seasons, he’s never played in over 119 games but Dusty Baker is gone as the Astros manager. In just over 450 PA last season, McCormick produced 22 HR, 19 SB, and a .273 AVG. The batting average might regress to his career .259 AVG but the counting stats could jump up if he plays in 145+ games.

Lane Thomas got a chance to play every day, and he took advantage of it with 28 HR, 20 SB, and a .268 AVG. A great target when building a balanced team.

Teoscar Hernandez is on a slow decline with ISO down three straight seasons (.289 to .227 to .224 to .178) and K% up the last two (25% to 28% to 31%). In 2023, it was the first time he played it over 145 games and got over 600 PA. Cap his plate appearances at 525. Where he fits into the Dodgers lineup will go a long way to setting his value. If everyone is healthy, the highest he’ll hit is 5th but could hit as low as eighth.

Josh Lowe doesn’t play against lefties (career .534 OPS vs LHP, .827 OPS vs RHP) nor should he. His plate appearances are capped around 500 since he will enter games to pinch hit.

After posting a .713 OPS for the first four months of the season, Seiya Suzuki took a break before posting a 1.072 OPS over the last two months. Over those two months, he hit 12 of his 20 home runs. He just flipped a switch with his power up (.170 ISO to .317 ISO) and strikeouts down (23% K% to 17% K%). If someone wants a sleeper, prorate out Suzuki’s final two months.

Spencer Steer’s talent projections are decent (20 HR, 10 SB, .255 AVG) but his real value is being qualified at three to four positions (OF, 1B, 2B, 3B) depending on the league’s rules.

The 21-year-old Jordan Walker shined in Spring Training (.277/.299/.492 with 3 HR). He ended the season with some OK numbers (16 HR, 7 SB, .276 AVG) with a chance to take a step forward in 2024.

Taylor Ward’s ranking might be a bit aggressive. The 30-year-old has only played over 100 games once in his career.

While Eloy Jimenez is in the Power-only tier, he does provide an above-average batting average

Somehow in Nick Castellanos’s age-31 season, he stole more bases (11) than in any previous season. The stolen bases are needed with his strikeouts heading up for the second straight season (21% to 23% to 28%). He struggled with spin. The swinging-strike rate on his curve jumped from 17% to 31%, 24% to 27% on his slider, and 16% to 21% on cutters. The seasons of being a batting average contributor may be coming to a close.

I looked around to find anything interesting to adjust the projections on Anthony Santander. What you see is what you get … about 30 HR and a .250 AVG.

Kerry Carpenter posted a .278 AVG with 20 HR and 6 SB last season in just 459 PA. The problem is that there is no prorating out the numbers because he struggled against lefties. So far in his career, he has a .643 OPS against lefties (2 HR) and a .843 OPS against righties (18 HR). On the upside though, he bumped his Sprint Speed up to 28.1 ft/sec from 17.3 ft/sec in 2022. Last season, hitters who had a similar Sprint Speed attempted 17 steals.

Kansas City should give Nelson Velazquez plenty of at-bats and be a nice home run source.

Mitch Haniger has played in over 61 games since 2021 while his skills are on a major decline. His ISO has been on a three-year decline (.244 to .232 to .183 to .156). Over the past two seasons, he’s only stolen two bases. He just doesn’t do much anymore.

Follow Hunter Goodman’s playing time chances as the season nears. He’s a talented bat but the team is loaded with too many DH types.

T.J. Friedl would sit or get buried in the lineup against lefties but he hit them better than righties. There is a chance Friedl hits first or second all season, gets 650+ PA, and ends up a top-50 hitter.

Cedric Mullins II has struggled against lefties (.657 OPS vs .792 OPS) over his career. At times, the struggles have cost him playing time. He dealt with a mid-season quad/groin injury. After the injury, he stole just 6 bases and hit .209/.249/.386. The 29-year-old has some nice upside if he can stay healthy and take advantage of the new rules that allow more stolen bases.

Esteury Ruiz was hitting so poorly to start the 2023 season (.640 OPS in the 1H), that Tony Kemp started stealing playing time from him. While Ruiz can steal a ton of bags (68 SB in 533 career PA), he’s a horrible real-life hitter (career .640 OPS). Even the A’s have some standards

In 102 games, Jarren Duran became a nice fantasy asset with his .295 AVG and 24 SB. He made major gains with this strikeout rate dropping from 36% to 28% to 25% over the past two seasons. One issue that hasn’t gone away is his struggles with lefties, especially getting to any power. In his career, he has a .570 OPS against lefties and .762 against rightes. Of the last 15 lefty starters the team faced before he went on the IL, he only faced two of them, Austin Cox (Royals) and Sam Long (A’s) who were both openers (total 3 IP).

The 25-year-old Leody Taveras has been making significant improvements since making it to the majors with his OPS increasing from .477 to .675 to .733. While he was known as a speedster coming through the minors, he’s become a more balanced player (14 HR, 14 SB, .266 AVG in 2023). With decent prospects in the Rangers minor league system, Taveras might get platooned. Last season he posted just .638 OPS against lefties (.643 in ’22).

For now, Willi Castro will play a ton of centerfield.

Tommy Edman was getting buried at the bottom of the Cards lineup against righties (.686 OPS vs RHP over the past three seasons). If it wasn’t for Edman’s great defense, he would be at risk of being benched since he’s a .700 OPS talent.

Where Whit Merrifield signs will go a long way in determining his role.

The Marlins shortstop situation is up in the air but if Jon Berti wins the job expect his value to jump to near the top-50 batters.

Steven Kwan is the first AVG specialist with a ton of plate appearances (>700 in 2023).

Masataka Yoshida performed as expected with a stellar .289 AVG and some power (15 HR) and (8 SB). His season can be divided into two halves based on getting hit on the leg on July 1st where he missed a couple of days. Before the hit-by-pitch, he was hitting .305/.377/.477 with an 89.6 mph avgEV and 11% K%. After the event, he posted a .271/.292/.411 with an 88.3 avgEV and 17% K%. Don’t be surprised if he stops stealing bases with just a 26.2 ft/s Sprint Speed.

Andrew Benintendi might provide the emptiest 600 PA possible (5 HR, 13 SB, .262 AVG), especially the 45 RBI.

There is a chance that Alex Verdugo gets platooned (career .665 OPS vs LHP, .807 OPS vs RHP).

Daulton Varsho’s surprising rank comes from projections pointing to 25 HR and 15 SB in a full season of plate appearances.

Tyler O’Neill needs to lay off the Weight Gain 4000 and try to stay a little limber. The muscle-bound 28-year-old has already spent 284 days on the IL and last season his back strain kept him from holding his newborn daughter. The injuries probably led to his Sprint Speed dropping from 29.8 ft/s to 28.5 ft/s last season.

A cursory look at James Outman projection points to ~20 HR power with ~10 SB. As for his batting average, it’ll be a drain in the range of .230 AVG to .240 AVG. He’ll need a BABIP over .300 for that high of batting average with his career 32% K%. The counting stats aren’t that safe since he was platooned last season. Against lefties, he posted a .664 OPS and .857 OPS against righties. In the minors, he showed the same large split with a .776 OPS against lefties and .911 OPS against righties.

With 10 games at catcher, MJ Melendez’s fantasy value will have wide swings depending on if he’s a catcher in the league. This ranking for him is just as an outfielder (auction value takes catcher into account). The StatCast power metrics love him. with a 96th percentile avgEV and 91% HardHit%. He needs to focus on pulling the ball to take advantage of short corner fences.

Jose Siri was close to being in the Platoon Tier (career .604 OPS vs LHP, .741 OPS vs RHP) but it seems like everyone on the Rays is in a platoon.

Jack Suwinski is a StatCast darling in both speed (81st percentile Spring Speed) and power (94th percentile Barrel%). Strikeouts (career 32% K%) are a major drag leading to a career .226 AVG.

If Christopher Morel remains on the Cubs, he won’t maximize his playing time because of his defensive limitations.

Henry Davis could end up catching and see his value jump quite a bit.

Will Benson to end up on the strong side of a platoon (career .400 OPS vs LHP, .938 vs RHP) in a stacked lineup. He didn’t start against the last eight lefties the Reds faced. A ~30% K% will limit his upside, he provides some speed and power.

Evan Carter will see limited playing time because of the Rangers’ stacked lineup and his inability to hit lefties (.091 OPS vs LHP, 1.238 vs RHP in a small sample).

It’s a make-or-break season for Jarred Kelenic who gets a new start in Atlanta. He’s struggled so far in his career but just has a .566 OPS in about 300 PA against lefties (.696 OPS vs RHP).

By signing with the Mets, Bader projects to be a weak-side platoon bat on a mediocre team. While his plus defense helps to keep him on the field, he could lose at-bats to DJ Stewart who hits righties.

Luke Raley fits into the role of a streamer option with a low batting average (career .233 AVG) and inability to hit lefties (career .580 OPS vs LHP, .783 OPS vs RHP).

Jake Bauers is probably just a strong side platoon bat with a career .606 OPS versus left-handed pitching.

Kyle Isbel spent most of the season in a platoon with Drew Waters

Matt Vierling sports some nice StatCast numbers for power and speed but he hasn’t been able to pull everything together. Last season, he was six for 12 on the bases.

Tyrone Taylor is out of minor league options so he’ll need to remain on the Braves MLB roster or pass through waivers if demoted.

Johan Rojas is a great fielder and he might need that safety net to stay on the field this season. He rode a .410 BABIP to some respectful stats (.302/.342/.430) last year, but when the BABIP regresses downward, he might struggle to be a replacement-level hitter.

Gold glove-winning Brenton Doyle is going to play centerfield every day for the Rockies.

I can’t recommend Kris Bryant until he gets over his plantar fasciitis. I won’t trust that it’s over until he plays an entire season.

Giancarlo Stanton’s performance continues to degrade with his OPS on a 4 year decline from .894 in 2019 to just .695 this past season. While he never stole many bases, his batting average is now a sink (.202 AVG over the past two seasons). Let someone else draft the headache.

Alex Kirilloff is valued at 350 PA and that might be too high.

Ezequiel Duran should be an MLB regular but is on a loaded Rangers team. If he gets the opportunity for a full-time role, immediately buy-in.